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-- Sports Illustrated

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Not every recruiting class contains a future Heisman winner.  Here are the last 10 Heisman winners and the classes that produced them:

Chris Weinke (1990*/1997)

Erich Crouch (1997)

Carson Palmer (1998)

Jason White (1999)

Matt Leinart (2001)

Reggie Bush (2003)

Troy Smith (2002)

Tim Tebow (2006)

Sam Bradford (2006)

Mark Ingram (2008)

* — Weinke originally signed with Florida State in 1990 but he embarked on a pro baseball career before returning to the Seminoles in 1997.

Recent classes missing out on Heismans: 2000, 2004, 2005, 2007 (so far).

With signing day in the books, here are the players from the class of 2010 (in no particular order) who I think have the best chance of competing for future Heismans:

Michael Dyer, RB, Auburn–Dyer is a slippery, low-to-the-ground runner who should immediately thrive in Gus Malzahn’s offense.  I predict he will hit the 1,000-yard mark as a freshman (assuming health and qualification) and go on to a stellar career on the Plains.

 

Lache Seastrunk, RB, Oregon–I thought it was funny that reaction in the recruiting world to Seastrunk going to Oregon was rather muted.  Said one coach to me “He’s going to Oregon–there must be something wrong with him.”  Well, this is a guy who everyone wanted just a few months ago and now all of a sudden schools are poo-pooing him.  I don’t buy it.  This is one amazingly fast back who is perfect for the Chip Kelly scheme.  He should be an instant star.

Mack Brown, RB, Florida–There haven’t been many ultra-productive running backs coming out of Urban Meyer’s offenses of late, but Brown could be the exception.  He’s a nifty north-south runner who should thrive in the wide-open space of Meyer’s attack.

D.J. Morgan, RB, USC–Morgan could possibly redshirt his first season at USC due to an injury suffered his senior season.  But once he gets healthy, he’ll be one of the more exciting players in the country.  A legitimate track star (world junior champ in the high hurdles), he has the speed and moves to take it the distance on every play.

Cameron Newton, QB, Auburn–I was a big fan of Newton’s game when he went to Florida and I’m still high on him as he heads to Auburn.  If he wins the starting job, he’ll throw for a lot of yards and touchdowns for the Tigers and could end up being one of the better quarterbacks in the SEC.

Devin Gardner, QB, Michigan–If Rich Rodriguez is to resurrect Michigan, he may need Gardner to come through sooner rather than later.  Reminiscent of Vince Young and Terrelle Pryor physically and should be a great fit for the Wolverine offense.  If he develops, watch out.

Andrew Hendrix, QB, Notre Dame–Hendrix is an underrated talent, with a very good arm and excellent athleticism.  He could very well be the future for Notre Dame once Dane Crist’s eligibility expires.  He looks like a typical Brian Kelly quarterback to me and that means he’ll be putting up big numbers one day.

Blake Bell, QB, Oklahoma–Bell is a raw talent with a lot of upside.  It looks like he is tailor-made for the Oklahoma offense. Can really move his feet despite his 6-6 height.  Keep an eye on him.

There’s my top Heisman guys from the class of 2010.  It’s not an especially deep class as far as this list goes and it could well be that no Heisman winners emerge from this group.  However, I think these guys I’ve listed have the best chance.

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I’ll have my breakdown of the top Heisman contenders from this class a little later but, in the meantime, I just want to make one point regarding recruiting rankings.

It’s in vogue to belittle recruiting rankings as worthless, since there are so many examples of non-rated or underrated players making it to the bigtime.  There are plenty of guys who will play in the Super Bowl who were not highly touted coming out of high school, for instance.

The natural instinct, then, is to dismiss recruiting rankings as meaningless.

Keep in mind, I do believe that most of the people who tout players are woefully unqualified to do so. 

But. 

In their defense, keep in mind that there are 120 FBS schools.  If you assume that each of those 120 schools will sign, on average, about 18 to 20 players today, then that means that approximately 2,200 players are signing letters of intent.

When you look at the rankings for ESPN, Rivals and Scout, we are talking about the top 250 or 300 players.  Even if you combine and consolidate all the lists of all the recruiting services, many of the same players would crossover in all the lists and I doubt you’d end up ranking more than 400 players.  So that means that the two or three star guy that you are overlooking and who you think is worthless is actually ranked in the top 15 or 20 percent nationally.  That’s pretty elite.  It also means that there are 1,700 or so players who aren’t ranked, most likely not out of any sort of incompetence, but rather because of the sheer numbers that must be reviewed, scouted and processed. 

Is it possible to accurately rank 2,200 players every year?  I doubt it.  If you wonder how some schools find success despite not having heralded recruiting classes, or why some recruits come from out of nowhere to become great players, it’s probably because they come from that bottom 80 percent.  But calling it a ‘bottom’ is a misnomer.  Most of these players are just victims of the numbers game.  The elite programs battle for what they perceive as the top 400 or so players, but it may be that the school that can find the gems from the remaining 1,700 available will find unexpected success.

So, remember, when that 2-star guy pans out, don’t belittle the recruiting gurus.  In reality, they did have him as one of the top players in the country (even if they don’t know it).  Being ranked 350th doesn’t sound elite but, in reality, it is.

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