Here’s what to look for this weekend from the top Heisman candidates:

The Two Leaders

1. Matt Leinart and USC travel to Pullman to take on Washington State. This could be a game where weather is a factor. It is supposed to be cold and wet. So that could depress some of Leinart’s numbers. However, I think voters aren’t going to punish him unless he just has a really bad game statistically. I look for Leinart to throw 3 TD passes and to have around 240 passing yards in a big USC win (I think it could potentially be another shutout for the Trojans).

2. Adrian Peterson and OU travel to Stillwater to take on a ranked Oklahoma State team. This is one of the marquee games of the day, but I think that OSU is bogus and that OU is going to romp here. This game and next week’s A&M game could make or break Peterson’s Heisman hopes. I think he will pass this particular test with flying colors, getting over 150 yards and a couple touchdowns.

What the race will look like after Saturday:

1. Matt Leinart
2. Adrian Peterson
3. Jason White
4. Jason Campbell
5. Reggie Bush

We will still be in the Leinart-Peterson holding pattern, at least until next Saturday, when Peterson goes up against Texas A&M. Since I think that OU might lose that game, we will not see any major movement until then. I think it is likely that next weekend will be the second of three major Heisman-deciding weekends this year (the first being the weekend of the Texas-OU/USC-Cal games and the third being the late November weekend of the USC-ND game).

What the longshots are up to:

Jason Campbell and Auburn face Ole Miss in Oxford. I think this is a potentially tough game for the Tigers, but I think Campbell will have another efficient game with 3-plus touchdowns.

Aaron Rodgers and Cal host ASU. This should be a one-way shootout as Cal will win solidly. This could be Rodgers’ biggest day yet.

Reggie McNeal and Texas A&M travel to Waco to take on Baylor. This will be another smashing as McNeal will probably get 100 yards rushing and 150 yards passing and account for 3 or 4 TDs running and passing.

Reggie Bush is with USC at Washington State. This could be a big game statistically for him with LenDale White not expected to play much. Look for a 100-yard rushing effort from Bush and a couple TDs.

Talk about nailing it. John Lindsay of the Scripps Howard News Service has this Heisman stuff down pat.

He should know–he’s a Heisman voter.

Some of what he writes:

“White won last year because he was the quarterback of the best team (at least before the Big 12 title game and Sugar Bowl). This QBOBT (quarterback of best team) factor rang true for seven of the last 12 Heisman winners. That’s good news for the previously-unheralded Leinart, who has put up dazzling numbers (54 touchdown passes vs. 13 interceptions in 20 games as a starter) since taking over for Palmer at the start of last season. Yet that doesn’t stop the ESPN talking heads from insisting that Peterson should be the first freshman to win the Heisman. A simple look at Peterson’s resume shows otherwise. Much has been made of Peterson becoming only the third freshman to begin his career with seven consecutive 100-yard games. (How aware is the OU staff of this streak? Peterson gained 103 of his 126 yards in the final quarter of Saturday’s 41-10 blowout of Kansas.) But did anyone notice that neither of the other two, Emmitt Smith in 1987 and Marshall Faulk in 1991, won the Heisman? That’s because the teams they played on weren’t good enough.”

And his money quote:

“Often times it doesn’t matter what you do. It’s what everybody else does – or doesn’t do. That’s how the efficient White won last year (though our vote for him prior to the Big 12 title game was unwise) as the other top contenders all either stumbled early or down the stretch. So here’s our call. Peterson would have to approach the 2,000-yard mark to win it.”

Former Heisman winner Pete Dawkins, as quoted by Chuck Carlton of the Dallas Morning News:

“I think when making a choice … between a freshman who had an intergalactic year vs. a senior who had a history of four years of superb performance,” Dawkins said, “in my view the nod needs to go to the person who’s performed at a very high standard.”

Carlson’s Heisman Keys

WAIT YOUR TURN–No freshman has ever won the Heisman Trophy. Neither has a sophomore.

JUST WIN, BABY–Thirteen of the last 14 Heisman winners played for teams that won at least 10 games.

SPLITTING THE VOTE–Historically, voters from a region back one candidate. The philosophy could penalize Southern Cal and Oklahoma, as each features two legitimate Heisman possibilities.

POSITION, POSITION, POSITION–Quarterbacks have won the last four Heismans, and skill position players dominate the voting.

Since the media make up the overwhelming chunk of Heisman voters, it stands to reason that the more a candidate is written about, the better chance he has of getting votes. Name recognition is such a huge part of the Heisman.

When I started this site, I began to utilize a service by Google called Google Alert. How it works is you enter names into the search engine and Google proceeds to send you any news story where that person’s name appears.

Of course, I entered all the top candidates for the Heisman into Google a couple months ago and that’s how I get a lot of my information and links.

But what is interesting is that the number of stories mentioning Matt Leinart have overwhelmed those mentioning the other candidates. Right now in my email “in” box, I have five emails with links to stories on Leinart, two to stories on Adrian Peterson and two to stories on Aaron Rodgers. Sometimes, the stories aren’t even about the player, but mention him in a certain context.

I think this goes to the crux of why Leinart is leading the race right now–he gets mentioned so much and is such a high profile athlete that he gets a lot of instinctive support from the Heisman electorate.

While Mike Woods of MSNBC has perhaps the best Heisman watch among the mainstream media, Luke Winn of CNN/SI has the worst.

Winn writes: “The Heisman picture remains in chaos. Each of the top seven contenders has a legitimate shot of walking away with the trophy.”

This guy fundamentally misunderstands the Heisman race. It’s not his fault, I’m sure. Most likely, he was told to put together a ‘watch’ list by his bosses. So, he has to come up with something for entertainment purposes.

So therefore, he has Aaron Rodgers on top of his list. Now, I think Rodgers is the best quarterback in the country and worthy of Heisman consideration. But there is no way that he is on top of the Heisman list right now. Alex Smith ahead of Jason White and Matt Leinart? Not bloody likely!

Winn writes again: “How can USC’s Matt Leinart remain ahead of Rodgers in a number of other Heisman lists? Leinart’s team beat Rodgers’ team on Oct. 9, but Ws and Ls don’t tell the whole story. Rodgers was clearly the better quarterback that day, and he continues to complete passes at a Philip Rivers-like clip of 75 percent.”

Well, note that he compares Rodgers to Philip Rivers here. Question: How did Philip Rivers do in the Heisman race last year? I will tell you where he finished: Seventh. Behind Matt Leinart. That’s what 75% completion will get you in the Heisman race if you play for NC State or Cal.

Finally, it also begs the question: If we are talking about great numbers being so important, where are Reggie McNeal and Jason Campbell on his list?

Their numbers are certainly comparable to Rodgers’ this year and their teams are doing very well–certainly as good as Cal or better.

This article from the Lawrence (Kan.) World-News talks about what a Heisman would mean to a place like KU and the hype surrounding the race every year.

“To get the coveted Heisman, one has to produce eye-popping numbers, play for a team with national exposure and national success — and maybe even get a little help from an athletic department willing to spend the bucks to get the attention. Even then, it’s never a given.”

A reader writes in:

Heismanpundit, After watching the OU vs. Kansas game, I still can’t figure out why Bob Stoops would keep Jason White in the 4th quarter and let him go for a passing touchdown with 35 seconds left in the game. When a game is a blowout, you figure most coaches woud pull their starting quarterbacks early in the 4th quarter (3rd quarter if it’s a huge blowout) or whenever the game is pretty much decided. OU is a great team, but that decision was straight up BUSH LEAGUE. If Stoops had scored with a backup quarterback or reserve guy, you could justify the last second play call as “gametime experience for the backup” or “rewarding the scout team quarterback”…but that simply wasn’t the case. OU fans can spin all they want, but Bob Stoops clearly broke the football honor code. You don’t purposely run up the score on a defeated opponent. what’s your take?

I have been meaning to talk about that situation. I agree that it is Bush League. There’s a way to give your player a chance to put up numbers and a way to really mess with your karma and I think Bob Stoops chose the latter route. In the USC game, Matt Leinart threw a career-high 43 times, but he was out of the game mid-way through the fourth. That’s the way you do it. I understand that you want to give your guy reps, but you don’t pile on against Kansas.

Unfortunately, hardly anyone knows that the OU coach ‘stooped’ to that level. As usual, there are lies, damn lies and statistics. Voters will look at Jason White’s four touchdowns in that game and think highly of it, just like they will think highly of Peterson’s 126 yards even though 99 came in the fourth quarter with the game no longer in doubt.