Like I mentioned earlier, the Heisman race is down to Leinart and Peterson, barring a couple scenarios that could happen.

The first one is the Campbell Scenario.

Here’s what could happen: Jason Campbell continues to put up huge numbers while leading Auburn to an undefeated season. The Tigers move to second in the polls following an Oklahoma loss to Texas A&M. Meanwhile, Leinart’s numbers lag somewhat. A groundswell for Campbell starts to take hold and he ekes out a win, with Leinart a close second and Peterson third.

Here’s also what could happen: Texas A&M’s Reggie McNeal ends up with ridiculous numbers–2,500 yards passing and 800 yards rushing with 15 TD passes and ZERO interceptions (don’t scoff–he has none through seven games so far). He leads the Aggies to an upset win over Oklahoma on the way to the Big 12 title and a 10-1 record. With one fell swoop, he destroys Peterson’s and Jason White’s Heisman ambitions, while his overall stats and what he means to his team becomes too much for Heisman voters to ignore. With Leinart looking lackluster and no other candidates emerging, he wins the Heisman.

Now, obviously, these are kind of wacky scenarios. But, there is a chance that something like what I described could occur. It could even happen with a different player (a Brock Berlin maybe?) Clearly, a lot of things would have to fall just right. We have seen late runs at the Heisman end successfully, most recently Carson Palmer’s run in 2002.

Generally, though, they are the exception, not the rule.

Here’s the rundown for the week following the games of Oct. 23.

It was an interesting weekend for the Heisman race, to say the least. I’ve come to realize that when looking at the Heisman, it is important to differentiate between anomalies and overall trends. Last weekend, we didn’t really see too many scintillating performances from the Heismanpundit Top 5. Therefore, it is very tempting to upgrade or downgrade some candidates based on those single games.

We won’t do that here because, as is always the case, someone will take hold of this race. At this point in the season, it’s hard for one week to make or break the strongest candidates. However, we are getting close to crunch time. Things are coming to a head.

And right now, the two strongest candidates are Matt Leinart and Adrian Peterson. It is really a two-man race between them, barring someone else rising out of nowhere to catch the Heisman zeitgeist. In the end, one of them will take hold and win this thing.

1. Matt Leinart, USC–He was clearly off his game against lowly Washington. He threw a career-high 43 times but only managed 217 yards, though he did throw 2 touchdowns (with one pick). On the year, he has 1,628 yards with 16 TD passes and 4 interceptions. He also has 3 rushing touchdowns. This was a valuable opportunity for him to load up on touchdown passes and he missed it, though not completely. He’s still in good shape in the Heisman race, just not in total command. If he keeps putting up numbers like this, though, voters might start to look for reasons not to vote for him.

2. Adrian Peterson, Oklahoma–Peterson also didn’t have a great game on Saturday though, like Leinart, it will not be perceived that way in the broader scheme of things. He had 126 yards on 22 carries and one touchdown (an 11-yarder). However, he had 99 of his yards in the fourth quarter, when the game was well in hand. He only had 21 yards at halftime. Clearly, he was not his usual self for three quarters against an average-at-best Kansas defense. But, that is neither here nor there for now. On the season, he has 1,027 yards and 7 TDs. He really needs to pick up more touchdowns.

So those are the two candidates left.

That means that Cedric Benson, Kyle Orton and Reggie Bush can’t win the Heisman, though neither Benson nor Bush has done anything specific to hurt their causes (okay, I guess Benson did poorly in a loss to Oklahoma). And we know about Orton’s exit.

It just looks right now that if any Big 12 running back is going to win this thing, it’s going to be the back on the top team who happens also to be the best runner in the country. It’s that simple. So, Cedric, that’s the way it goes.

As for Bush, I have asserted many times that he just won’t put up the numbers to really challenge. He is a human highlight film. But so is Devin Hester of Miami. That doesn’t make you a real Heisman candidate. Bush may be the best all-around player in the country but, sadly, that’s not what the Heisman is about.

However, let’s make a couple things clear. While I am 95% sure that either Matt Leinart or Adrian Peterson will win the Heisman, there are two candidates who have an outside shot now, but only under very specific scenarios. I will discuss that in an upcoming post.

For now, here is how I think this week’s Scripps Howard Heisman poll will look and how I think the Heisman vote would fall if it were held TODAY:

1. Matt Leinart
2. Adrian Peterson
3. Jason White
4. Reggie Bush
5. Aaron Rodgers
6. Jason Campbell
7. Kyle Orton
8. Reggie McNeal
9. Cedric Benson
10. Alex Smith

As I thought he would, Kyle Orton came up short against Michigan. He went just 14 of 30 for 214 yards, one touchdown and one interception. His once pristine 17-0 TD-to-INT ratio is now at a more down-to-earth (but still excellent) 20-4. More importantly, his team lost its two biggest games of its season. Hence, his Heisman hopes are dead. Players from Purdue teams that finish 9-2 do not win the Heisman.

Can he make the Top 5? At this point, I think it will be hard to do. The reason for watching Purdue this season–to witness a possible run at the Big 10 title–has vanished and, hence, Orton will vanish off of the Heisman map. I think he will end up about sixth or seventh when it is all said and done.

Don’t feel bad for him, though. He’s about to make a lot of money.

Here’s the Heismanpundit Top 10 teams for the week of Oct. 24:

1. USC (7-0)–While the Trojan offense has gradually improved, it is the defense that is quickly becoming one of the top three units in the country. A 38-0 blanking of Washington gives USC two shutouts on the year. Washington State is up next. Only a major blizzard in Pullman could slow down the Trojans at this point.

2. Oklahoma (7-0)–The Sooners of 2003 might be back, as OU allowed Jason White to once again become the focal point of the offense for three quarters before feeding it to Adrian Peterson in the fourth quarter in a 41-10 win over Kansas. Think Bob Stoops isn’t getting serious? He had White throw a TD pass to Mark Bradley from the Jayhawk 9-yard line with about a minute left and the game well in hand. Nemesis Oklahoma State is up next.

3. California (5-1)–The Bears blanked Arizona, 38-0. The best offense in the country keeps churning along. And even if it IS Arizona, a shutout is an impressive accomplishment for ANY defense. Arizona State is up next for Cal.

4. Miami (7-0)–Brock Berlin, who was third on the Heismanpundit preseason candidate list, threw five touchdowns as the Hurricanes rolled over N.C. State, 45-31. North Carolina is up for Miami, which looks like they are just too athletic for the ACC right now.

5. Wisconsin (8-0)-The Badgers avoided a letdown in beating Northwestern, 24-12. That defense just doesn’t seem to break down, does it? Now they have two weeks to get ready for perhaps their biggest obstacle to an undefeated season–Minnesota.

6. Auburn (8-0)–The Tigers kept on their roll in beating Kentucky, 42-10. Jason Campbell cooled off some, but Carnell Williams and Ronnie Brown more than picked up the slack. Ole Miss is up next.

7. Florida State (6-1)–Snuck by a crafty Wake Forest squad, 20-17. This looks like an unimpressive win on the surface, but the Demon Deacons scored two defensive touchdowns, which means that the FSU defense was fairly dominant. Tough game at Maryland coming up–could be an upset.

8. Texas A&M (6-1)–Showed a lot of grit in a 29-26 OT win over Colorado, which had never lost at A&M. Reggie McNeal STILL hasn’t thrown an intercpetion this year. They have Baylor next week and then host the Sooners.

9. Utah (7-0)–Smashed UNLV, 63-28. This team is going undefeated. Bank on it. And I think they deserve a chance to be in the BCS.

10. Michigan (7-1)–Beat a floundering Purdue team, 16-14. The Wolverines are slowly becoming more and more dangerous, with a solid passing game and a good running game. Then there’s the defense, which is the nation’s best at creating turnovers. They have Michigan State up next, but I think they win out and will end up the outright Big 10 champs.

Percolating:

Texas (6-1)–Nice 51-21 win over Texas Tech.

Louisville (5-1)–They sure are fun to watch.

Ugly Conference of the Week:

THE SEC–Okay, so this conference is my favorite whipping boy. But let me ask you: What business did pollsters have ranking Florida in the Top 25 before its EMBARRASSING loss to Mississippi State? Remember, this is a team that lost to Maine! And WHY is LSU still No. 18 after a last-minute win over Troy IN BATON ROUGE (at least Mizzou had the decency to play a road game at Troy)? Is there any credibility left in the polls when two teams that are clearly average at best are allowed to be ranked merely on the reputation of a conference?

It looks like Oklahoma returned back to its old offense today and beat Kansas soundly, 41-10. We once again saw Jason White throwing it deep with great success, as he had 389 yards passing and 4 TD passes.

Adrian Peterson got off to a slow start for the second week in a row and ended with 122 yards rushing and an 11-yard touchdown run in the fourth quarter.

Peterson’s dilemna is that he now has just seven touchdowns in seven games. I believe he needs to get a MINIMUM of 15 touchdowns to challenge for the Heisman. That means he has to score eight touchdowns in his next four games. That is definitely doable, but now that the Sooner offense looks like it has returned to its previous identity–an offense centered around Jason White–it may not be that easy.

Here’s a great article about how quarterbacks statistics have improved over the years, mostly thanks to the implementation of short passing games (like what Auburn is doing this year). Good stuff.

“Remember when anything over 50 percent was pretty good? Pat Sullivan of Auburn (1971), Gino Torretta of Miami (1992) and Doug Flutie of Boston College (1984) all completed less than 60 percent of their passes in their Heisman Trophy-winning seasons. Jim Plunkett of Stanford hit 53.3 percent of his passes and threw as many interceptions (18) as touchdowns (18) while winning the Heisman in 1970. Ty Detmer threw 28 interceptions when he won the Heisman in 1990. It’s hard to imagine a quarterback keeping his job with those statistics now.”

That’s the question posed here by the Dallas Morning News.

A month ago, I saw that Dennis Franchione had his Aggies on a roll, so I started ranking them in the top 10 about three weeks ago (after a win over Kansas State).

The biggest reason for that roll has been the play of McNeal. He is having the best year of any quarterback in the Big 12. He has yet to throw an interception and has over 1,300 yards passing, plus 450 yards rushing. Those are outstanding numbers.

However, McNeal isn’t quite ready for Heisman consideration yet. I think next year, he will be one of the main contenders.

Still, if he can beat OU like he did as a freshman, he might make it to New York.