Archive | December, 2004

The Wrench In The Works

In the end, we believe that the most important story of the college football season was the return of Jason White for a sixth season.

It had a chain effect on the season in many ways.

Besides the fact that it is rare for a Heisman winner to return after his junior season, it is (obviously) even more rare for a Heisman winner to return after his senior season.

In all our time observing college football, we have never seen a sixth year granted to a player coming off a successful, healthy season. Most of the time, the sixth year is granted as a reward for a player whose career has been disappointing. This is why the granting of White’s extra season was a surprise.

It had the effect of immediately scrambling the Heisman race. Would Adrian Peterson have won in White’s absence? Would Peterson have been as successful without White at QB? Would another quarterback have emerged as the alternative to Leinart? Perhaps Ced Benson would have been a more viable Big 12 candidate. We’ll never know.

One thing may be certain: The big loser in all this might end up being Auburn. To wit, had White not returned for his second senior year, Oklahoma may not have gone undefeated. That would mean Auburn would be in the Orange Bowl right now. So, for their current woes, maybe the Tigers should blame the person at the NCAA who granted White his sixth year

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Teammates Hurting Each Other

We’ve posted before about the myth of teammates costing each other the Heisman.

This year, it may finally have happened. For the first time, the sum of two teammates’ votes would have surpassed the points of the winner. Had Adrian Peterson and Jason White combined their votes, it would have beaten Leinart by over 500 points.

However, since this is also the first time that two teams had a pair of teammates among the finalists–and hence, the vote was more jumbled–it is probably safe to say that the rule of thumb still stands.

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Some USC Heisman Tidbits

Matt Leinart won a Heisman 25 games after stepping onto a college football field for the first time. Looking back at history, it seems to be the quickest-ever path to a Heisman.

USC has won 6 Heismans in the last 40 years. That means USC has won a Heisman every 6.67 years during that time, an astounding achievement.

Leinart’s margin of victory of 338 points was the most since Ron Dayne won by over 1,000 points in 1999.

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Underclassmen

The conventional wisdom out there might be that Adrian Peterson’s all-time best showing for a freshman (second) is a harbinger that a first-year player might win the trophy one day soon.

In reality, his second-place showing actually assures for the near future that no freshman will come close.

Here’s why:

Peterson has now set the bar so high with his performance, that it would take a season of unbelievable proportions for a freshman to win. Anything less would be met with ‘Well, his season wasn’t as good as Peterson’s. If Peterson didn’t win, this guy shouldn’t.’

It’s much like what happened with Herschel Walker. He placed third as a freshman. But his shadow was so huge, it took until Peterson for any first-year player to top that finish. For a freshman to win now, he would have to be considered better than Adrian Peterson. And since Peterson is on his way to becoming one of the great college backs ever, that is a tall order indeed.

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The Aftermath

Looks like the the Heismandments have survived for another year.

This was an especially difficult year to analyze the Heisman. Not only were there two great underclassman challengers, but there was also a potential repeat winner and a dark-horse in Alex Smith.

In the end, our analysis ended up being spot on the entire time and, given Leinart’s margin of victory, there really never should have been much doubt.

It’s clear that the rules for winning the Heisman stand fast and hard.

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A Sneak Peak At 2005

Here’s our Heisman short list for 2005:

There’s these two:

Reggie Bush
Adrian Peterson

And the rest:

Chris Leak
Vince Young
Alex Smith
Maurice Drew
Brady Quinn
Leon Washington
Reggie McNeal
Drew Tate

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Off To New York

We’ll be out the next couple days, as we’ll be in New York to attend the Heisman ceremony. Will try to post some thoughts on the road.

Our prediction still stands:

1. Matt Leinart

2. Adrian Peterson

3. Jason White

4. Reggie Bush

5. Alex Smith

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