Here’s my picks for part two of my bowl preview:

Rutgers vs. Arizona State (-10): Rutgers is in its first bowl since most of you were born. I think the Scarlet Knights will just be happy to be there and this is, after all, basically a home game for the Sun Devils. Should be a big romp: ASU 45, Rutgers 17.

Boise State vs. Boston College (-1): This is a tough one to pick. Boise is almost unbeatable at home, where the game is being played. But BC is a good team that always seems to overachieve. I will go with Boise here, narrowly, because of the home field. Boise 31, BC 28.

Nebraska vs. Michigan (-10.5): This is one of the locks of the bowl season, as Michigan should win this one going away. Nebraska went 7-4 in a really bad conference, while Michigan went 7-4 in the best conference in college football. Wolverines 38, Huskers 10.

Utah vs. Georgia Tech (-8.5): I lean toward Tech in this one, though I don’t feel that strongly about it. Tech 24, Utah 14.

Oklahoma vs. Oregon (-3): This is a rematch of their game a couple years ago. This one could be a shootout, as neither team has what it takes to stop the other. In the end, I like Oregon, but not before OU serves notice that it will be back in a big way next year. Ducks 38, Oklahoma 31.

Virginia vs. Minnesota (-4): This is another game I feel is a lock, as Minnesota should roll over Virginia. Gophers 42, Cavs 21.

Northwestern vs. UCLA (over 74.5): One thing I learned this year is that Northwestern is a great team to bet on. This is going to be a big shootout–the over is the pick here. I like NW to pull it out 45-42.

Missouri vs. South Carolina (-4): South Carolina should have no problem with the hapless Tigers. The Big 12 continues its horrible bowl season. Cocks 28, Tigers 10.

South Florida vs. NC State (-4): Ugh, what a putrid matchup. NC State 17, USF 10.

Tulsa vs. Fresno State (-7): I like Fresno to right the ship after its late-season collapse. Bulldogs 31, Tulsa 21.

Iowa State vs. TCU (-3.5): TCU will win this one going away, continuing the Big 12′s bowl woes. Horned Frogs 24, Cyclones 7.

Alabama vs. Texas Tech (-3): Can the Big 12 get its second bowl win here? I say yes. The Tech system is too exotic for Bama right now, plus the Tide lost a corner to injury. Red Raiders 28, Tide 17.

Iowa vs. Florida (-2): The Gators’ speed should be the difference in this one. Florida 23, Iowa 13.

Louisville vs. Virginia Tech (-8): This is an interesting matchup. Which Hokie team is going to show up, the one that lost to Miami and FSU or the one that breezed through the rest of the ACC schedule? Louisville is a dangerous team and I think they will cover here and squeak out the win. Cardinals 27, Virginia Tech 24.

Wisconsin vs. Auburn (-11): I think the spread here is too much for Auburn to cover. I think the Tigers get the win, but the Badgers keep it close in Barry Alvarez’ last game. Tigers 21, Badgers 17.

Stay tuned for the BCS preview coming soon!

That’s bowl season for me. Sure, I get to see game after game while gorging on mom’s holiday cooking, but each bowl reminds me that the college football season is indeed coming to a close.

Bowls are often times very hard to predict. There is such a long period of time between most bowls and when the last regular season games were played, you sometimes see entirely different teams out there.

I remember when I was sure a 9-2 Stanford team was not only going to beat a 7-5 Georgia Tech squad, but cover the spread in the 2001 Seattle Bowl. You see, the Yellowjackets were supposed to be stunned by the recent loss of George O’Leary, who had left to become coach at Notre Dame. The Stanford team, perhaps Ty Willingham’s best at Palo Alto, had handed No. 2 Oregon its only loss of the year AT EUGENE. Plus, the stadium itself was a short trip for the Cardinal, a long haul for Georgia Tech. So what happens? The Yellowjackets win easily, 24-14.

Point being, once again, that funny things happen in bowls.

That said, after a solid 42-30 (.580) regular season picking games, I will now venture forth with part one of my bowl game predictions (sans the New Orleans and GMAC Bowls):

PART ONE: THE UGLY BOWLS

BYU vs. California (-8): BYU has a crazy 3-3-5 defensive scheme that can be really disruptive to a young quarterback. Unfortunately for the Bears, they are starting a guy who has barely played this fall, Steve Levy. I expect the Bears to try to keep the ball on the ground in order to keep the pressure off Levy, but at some point he will have to win the game for Cal. I think Cal’s defense is suited to face BYU, which employs a short, West Coast-style passing game. I think this will be a relatively low-scoring affair, with BYU covering, but falling just short. Hippies 23, Mormons 17.

Colorado State vs. Navy (-3): Ugh. Does anyone plan to actually watch this game? It makes me sick just to think about it, but here goes. I like Navy in this one. Don’t think CSU can stop that running game. Squids 28, CSU 21.

Houston vs. Kansas (-3): First off, I’m shocked that both teams are actually in a bowl. However, I’m not as sick as I was when thinking about a CSU-Navy matchup. Houston actually has a pretty cool offense. Since Kansas is in the offensively-challenged Big 12, I like Houston to cover in this one and even sneak away a win: Elvin Hayes 34, Wilt Chamberlain 31.

UCF vs. Nevada (-2.5): UCF is a feel-good story this year and the aforementioned O’Leary is a heckuva coach. But, once again, I shall pick against one of his teams. Nevada 27, UCF 17.

Akron vs. Memphis (-5.5): Akron really shouldn’t be here after clinching a bowl bid with a miracle play against Northern Illinois. This is Akron’s first-ever bowl, while the Tigers have been to three straight. I like Memphis to put it together for this one. Memphis 31, Akron 14.

Clemson vs. Colorado (no line): I think that one could reasonably give Clemson the edge here after all the turmoil with Colorado. I think Clemson will be able to move the ball on the Buffaloes and I doubt that Colorado has much left in the tank to respond. Clemson 24, Colorado 6.

I’ll be continue tomorrow with Part Two of the HP Bowl Preview.

For the second year in a row, the Heismanpundit preseason pick won the Heisman Trophy.

In 2004, Matt Leinart was my preseason top pick and I said:

If (Matt) Leinart ends up anywhere near his numbers last year (2003), when he had 3,500 yards, 38 TDs and only 9 Ints, he’ll win the award as long as USC is at or near the top spot.

Before this season, I had Reggie Bush at the top and said:

The USC tailback position carries a lot of weight in Heisman voting–the last Trojan tailback to win was Marcus Allen in 1981, so voters may feel it’s time to bring back the old-time mystique….(Bush) is the only returning Heisman finalist from last season whose candidacy can’t potentially be derailed by a Heismandment.

So, it’s been a good start so far on the Heisman prognostication.

This season was not quite as difficult to analyze as 2004, when Leinart was joined in the race by Adrian Peterson, Jason White, Alex Smith and Bush.

While I felt all along that Leinart would win in 2004, it didn’t mean that there weren’t moments of doubt. In just their first season, the Heismandments were stretched to the limit and almost subjected to revision. But they held up.

This season, Bush pretty much led the Heisman race wire to wire and there was very little doubt about it all season long. The only exceptions were on Sept. 13, Sept. 19th and Nov. 16th, following the USC-Cal game, when I said the race was too close to call.

Still, I felt that Bush had the clear edge and never had him any worse than tied for the lead. What I wrote on Nov. 16th:

Bush has the most natural advantages, but Young’s buzz has picked up enough to the point where he has closed the gap….Between Bush and Young, Bush has had the most hype, the most magazine covers and has been known to Heisman voters longer. He is also a USC tailback, which carries a lot of weight in the Heisman vote. And when it comes down to it, playing for the No. 1 team trumps playing for the No. 2 team.

Despite perception to the contrary, Bush was always the leader in the race for the 2005 Heisman

In reality, despite late Young leads in the Scripps Howard and ESPN polls, I felt that Bush still carried a hidden advantage among the rank-and-file Heisman voters who don’t follow the race as closely as working college football media.

Bush’s candidacy really started in 2004, when he had big games against Virginia Tech and UCLA and highlight-reel punt returns versus Oregon State and Stanford. While it wasn’t enough for him to win the Heisman (he finished fifth), it did put his name in the minds of voters. While they knew it wasn’t Bush’s turn to win–after all, he was only a sophomore–they didn’t forget him. His resume was on their desks, so to speak.

Over the summer, the hype for Bush in the college football media actually surpassed that of Leinart’s, who was more often than not found in US Weekly and People rather than Sports Illustrated. So Bush entered the 2005 season as almost the perfect Heisman candidate: A junior running back with superb name recognition who played for a traditional power that was ranked No. 1 and on TV and in the newspapers almost every day. All he had to do was have a Heisman-worthy season and he would win.

The Vince Young candidacy started a bit later, in the 2005 Rose Bowl. He, too, had a good amount of preseason hype and here at Heismanpundit we had him as our No. 3 candidate. After his big game against Ohio State, we moved him into a tie with Reggie Bush:

If he keeps on rolling, the only question that will remain in voters’ minds is whether they want to award the Heisman to the third Big 12 quarterback in the last five years, after getting burned by the first two. Texas will now be heavily favored in the next eight games and will go into the rivalry game with Texas A&M undefeated at 10-0. By that point, Young should have nearly 1,000 rushing yards and over 2,000 passing yards. If they get by the Aggies, then Young is almost guaranteed to finish in the top 2 of the Heisman voting.

The next week, we still had the race as tied, but noted that the ball remained in Bush’s court:

One advantage for Bush: He has two spotlight games coming up against Oregon and Arizona State. I expect him to be in sole possession of the lead after those games, since many will be watching them.

Following those games, we had Bush with a solid lead heading into the matchup against Notre Dame.

After the Notre Dame game, we felt the Trophy was Bush’s to lose. It was also at that point that the eventual top four in the Heisman race–Bush, Young, Leinart and Quinn–took shape. It wouldn’t budge from that point on.

I think that–provided he doesn’t tank from here on out or get injured–his performance against Notre Dame went a long way towards securing him the Heisman Trophy.

It was after the USC-Notre Dame game that I officially eliminated Leinart from having any chance of repealing Heismandment No. 9. From that point on, my analysis centered on Bush and Young.

The Notre Dame game made Reggie Bush the Heisman front-runner and turned Matt Leinart into a legend.

With Bush then the clear front runner in the Heisman and Young the main challenger, the temptation was to look at the race with a microscope to find all the nooks and crannies that the players had to offer. While many who follow the Heisman took that route, I backed off:

The story arc of this year’s Heisman race is now frozen, not unlike Han Solo in Empire Strikes Back. The Heisman voters have taken in and digested the huge games of the first half of the season and have come away with an understanding: Reggie Bush is the clear front runner, but Vince Young is pretty special, too. Nothing–barring injury or unforeseen upsets and certainly not anything any outside candidate does–will disturb that mindset for the next month. Once Heisman voters get things etched into their minds, it’s hard to change it.

So, the intensity of the Heisman race will now drop a notch or two for the next few weeks, as both USC and Texas play in non-marquee games. These next few games will be a chance for both candidates to build up their stat resumes away from the public eye before the final end-of-the-season showdowns with traditional rivals. At that point, the Heisman voters will pay close attention again and that’s when a lot of the voters will either confirm their previous choice, or make up their minds at last.

This turned out to be right on, as nothing either candidate did during the few weeks prior to the mailing of Heisman ballots did much to hurt or help either player.

That didn’t stop the arguing back and forth about the statistics of each player, though. With ballots in the mail, the debate about who was having the superior season seemed to dominate the Heisman discussion. I didn’t fall for any of it:

So this Heisman will not come down to statistics. There are two great players–a quarterback and a running back–and their stats will look different given their positions. But both have done their part to this point. The Heisman will be decided by voters who are less influenced by the hard stats than they are by their sense of which player best captures the zeitgeist of the 2005 college football season.

Bush then had his huge game against Fresno State. Young responded with a lackluster game against Texas A&M.

Vince Young would have needed to put up some crazy numbers at the end to beat Bush

And on Nov. 25th, I officially called it for Bush.

Texas quarterback Vince Young has had an outstanding season, but with his lackluster performance against Texas A&M today he has lost whatever slim chance he had left of winning the 2005 Heisman Trophy….With a good performance (against UCLA), Bush has the chance to win the Heisman in a runaway. Even a mere solid game by Bush will assure that the vote won’t be close. Bush has never not been the leader in the Heisman race this season. There was a stretch where Young surged and made the race too close to call, but that turned out to be temporary until Bush once again reminded voters why he was so special. The combination of preseason hype, career reputation, on-field production, the Trojan tailback mystique, USC’s No. 1 ranking and Heisman tradition, plus the inimitable style and skill of Bush was just too much for any player this year to overcome. He’ll be your 2005 Heisman Trophy winner.

Sounds about right.

Footnotes:

Not everything I said about the Heisman race was spot on. I had Florida’s Chris Leak as my preseason No. 2, though I quickly disposed of him as soon as the Gators struggled. Reggie McNeal was No. 4 on my preseason list and Drew Tate of Iowa was No. 5. Of course, my preseason group was not the predicted order of the voting, but my list of players who had the best shot at actually winning. To my credit, I had Brady Quinn as No. 6 in the preseason and Maurice Drew–who made quite a bit of noise in the race for a few weeks–was No. 7.

From the getgo, I saw Adrian Peterson and Matt Leinart as extreme longshots in the race. For that, many said I was crazy, but of course, it turned out to be true.

Our call on Leinart:

…many are calling him the preseason favorite, but we think he’s more likely to finish in the top 3 or so and not actually win it.

A last note: I’m really looking forward to next year’s race when, for the first time in this site’s existence, no USC player will be among the Heisman favorites. It will make for a fresher, more challenging race to analyze without a college football mega super power like USC affecting the tides and currents of the discussion.

Our pre-pre-preseason top two for 2006?

Brady Quinn and Adrian Peterson. Assuming Vince Young goes pro, it’s those two and a pretty pedestrian group beneath them.

Finally, I’ll continue to earnestly discuss college football during the bowl season and on into the spring and beyond. And of course, I’ll be keeping a close eye on the race for the most prestigious award in sports.

Couldn’t get to the computer today. Will return on Tuesday with the Heisman recap.

Here’s a link to all the totals in the Heisman vote.

Heisman Trophy voting breakdown
Player	        School	 First	Second	Third	Total points
Reggie Bush	USC	 784	89	11	2,541
Vince Young	Texas	 79	613	145	1,608
Matt Leinart	USC	 18	147	449	797
Brady Quinn	ND	  7	21	128	191
M. Robinson     Penn St.  2	7	29	49
A.J. Hawk	Ohio St.  0	3	23	29
De. Williams    Memphis	  1	2	19	26
Drew Olson	UCLA	  1	2	14	21
Jerome Harrison	Wash. St. 0	4	12	20
Elvis Dumervil	Louis.	  0	0	9	9

Heisman Trophy voting by region
Player	NE   Mid-Atl.  South  S.West  Midwest	Far West
Bush	431	416	416	416	439	422
Young	261	256	273	307	291	220
Leinart	133	127	133	132	122	150
Quinn	53	29	32	19	35	23

As we posted on Nov. 25 (our final Heisman prediction) Michael Robinson ended up fifth. We also correctly pegged DeAngelo Williams at the seven spot

One player we didn’t anticipate finishing sixth: A.J. Hawk.

Interesting that Bush’s two strongest regions were the Northeast and the Midwest. Young did better in the Midwest than in the South. All in all, a fairly uniform vote across the board and a dominant win by Bush.

We’ll have a complete recap of the Heisman race on Monday.

Looks like Vince Young took coming in second pretty hard.

“I’m just disappointed for my fans, especially my teammates, my family back at home,” Texas quarterback Vince Young said Saturday night after he finished second, well behind Bush by one of the largest margins in Heisman history.

“This gives me a little bit more edge to go out there and play now,” he said.

Can’t say as I’ve ever heard a Heisman finalist sound this disappointed that he didn’t win.

Of course, some industrious Oklahoma fans are already having their fun:

The official AP story is here.

Bush won the 2005 Heisman Trophy with 2,541 points. That total is 91.76% of a possible total of 2,769.

That’s the biggest winning percentage in Heisman history.

The previous best was in 1998, when Ricky Williams won 85.2% of a possible 2,763 points.

He finished 933 points ahead of Vince Young, the largest gap between one and two since Ron Dayne won by 1,084 in 1999.

Bush’s total was also the second-most total points by a winner. O.J. Simpson tallied 2,853 points in 1968 (Simpson won 80.6% of the possible point total that year–there were 1,200 voters back then).

Bush also had a modern-era record 784 first place votes, topping Charlie Ward’s previous best of 740. O.J. Simpson had 855 votes in ’68, but again, that was when there were more Heisman votes.

As noted before, Bush is the third USC player in four years to win the Heisman, a record.

Pete Carroll becomes just the fourth to coach three Heisman winners. Frank Leahy of Notre Dame and Woody Hayes of Ohio State each coached four, while Army’s Colonel Earl Blaik also coached three.

USC is now tied with Notre Dame for most Heisman winners with seven.