The Heisman vote is divided up into six regions:
Northeast
Mid-Atlantic
South
Southwest
Midwest
Far West
To really figure out how the Heisman race will turn, you have to look at which way the regions will lean.
Let’s assume that the four remaining candidates all win out and have good seasons under their belts.
There’s little doubt that the Southwest would go overwhelmingly to Adrian Peterson. Brady Quinn would clean up in the Northeast. Chris Leak would dominate the South.
That leaves three swing regions: The Far West, the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic.
I think that the Far West would split between Peterson and Quinn, who are the two most recognizable players to voters in that region. Most likely, if Quinn’s Irish beat USC, then the West would go his way, though some voters out there could also try to punish Quinn for beating the Trojans.
Quinn will obviously be very strong in the Midwest, but I think Troy Smith would have a slight edge there.
That leaves the Mid Atlantic, which I think Quinn and Leak have the best chances at capturing.
It seems to me that Peterson is set up well in the regions. He will likely have second-place finishes in the South and Far West to go along with his dominance of the Southwest. I expect him to be second or third in the Northeast, thanks to his high profile. He won’t do as well in the Mid Atlantic, since Steve Slaton will get most of the running back votes there. He should finish third in the Midwest behind Smith and Quinn.
Still a long way to go, but it looks like this could be a very close Heisman race.
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