Here’s the latest rundown on the Heisman race:
There are still only four players with a chance to win the trophy and things are really beginning to tighten up. The final month of the Heisman race looks like it will be a doozy.
For the four candidates, the outcomes of four big games will likely determine the Heisman: Texas-Oklahoma, Michigan-Ohio State, Florida-Auburn and Notre Dame-USC.
In the meantime, the resurgence of Brady Quinn shakes up the quarterback vote some and means that the only running back left in this race has leapt to the forefront.
1. Adrian Peterson, Oklahoma–Right now, Peterson is in the strongest position to win the Heisman. He is the only running back who can win and he’s the only player left who is seen as a superior physical talent.
He also is the player who can best absorb a loss by his team, since the Sooners are not seen as title contenders anyway and Peterson is viewed as the guy keeping OU afloat. He is also the guy who will benefit the most should his team continue to win, since the expectations for OU are relatively low right now. One unexpected factor working in his favor, too, is the huge amount of attention given to Oklahoma’s loss to Oregon. Many voters may not view that as a legitimate loss and some could vote for him as a sort of protest. It’s rare that a loss isn’t counted against a player in the Heisman race, but this could be such a case.
But make no mistake, he is getting it done on the field, too. He has 643 yards and 7 TDs on the season, putting him on pace for 1,920 yards and 21 TDs in a 12-game season, with the opportunity to crack 2,000 if the Sooners make the Big 12 title game. Those type of numbers will win him the Heisman in a heartbeat. His big game will come against Texas, though. He needs to perform well against the Longhorns. If the Sooners win, he may cruise to the trophy, but he will still have a chance if OU plays Texas close in a loss.
The Front Runner
2. (tie) Brady Quinn, Notre Dame–While many out there thought his candidacy was dead, HP knew all along that the schedule was set up nicely for Quinn to make a strong push for the Heisman at the end of the season.
As it turns out, things couldn’t have gone better for Quinn against Michigan State. An easy win would have been yawned over and quickly forgotten. But the epic comeback in which he threw for 319 yards and 5 TDs has been the talk of college football. Quinn is no longer seen as a glamor boy; instead, he’s a gritty fighter, guiding his underperforming teammates back a la Joe Montana. Voters love comebacks, especially Notre Dame comebacks.
Quinn is on pace for 3,249 passing yards and 33 TDs in 12 games this season, numbers that are easily Heisman-worthy. He’s got a soft schedule from here on out in which to pile up stats, but his Heisman campaign will come down to whether he leads Notre Dame to a win over USC. If he does, I think he wins the Heisman. At this point, I don’t think Notre Dame will win that game, which is why I have him behind Peterson.
He’s back in it
2. (tie) Troy Smith, Ohio State–Smith’s narrow lead in the Heisman race vanished when Brady Quinn threw 5 TDs to beat Michigan State. As a result of that game, there are two quarterback candidates from the Midwest sapping each other’s strength and it may take a while for one to break away from the other.
Smith had a big highlight play against Penn State, but his stats weren’t very good as he threw for just 115 yards, with one TD and two interceptions. Smith’s biggest problem is that his season-ending stats are in danger of not being Heisman worthy. He is on pace for 2,873 passing yards and 26 TD passes in 13 games. Those are good numbers, but the last passing quarterback to win the Heisman with less than 3,000 yards was Vinny Testaverde in 1986.
If Smith supplemented those numbers with his usual rushing yardage, it would be no problem, but he’s not running much this year. In effect, by becoming a one-dimensional quarterback, he is making his stat burden tougher. However, if he puts up big yardage against Iowa this week, he can get back on track. At some point between the Iowa game and the Michigan game, though, Ohio State’s coaches will need to help him out by letting him pile up yardage.
Needs more yards quick
4. Chris Leak, Florida–Leak continues to play at a high level as he had 267 yards and two TDs (with one INT) against Kentucky. He is tied for the national lead with 12 touchdown passes. He is on pace for a monster season–3,464 yards and 39 TDs, assuming the Gators reach the SEC title game.
Now, those are really remarkable stats and if he can get anywhere near that, he will have a shot at the Heisman IF the Gators at LEAST win the SEC title. Does Florida need to go undefeated for Leak to win? Not necessarily.
The best case scenario for Leak is for Ohio State to lose to Michigan and for Notre Dame to lose to USC. That would eliminate both Smith and Quinn from contention. Should that happen, a one-loss Florida team that still manages to win the SEC title could push Leak past Peterson in the voting.
And if Florida makes the SEC title game on Dec. 2 while OU sits at home, Leak will have the spotlight all to himself.
He’s having a Carson Palmer-like senior season
So what happens if Ohio State loses to Michigan, Notre Dame loses to USC, Oklahoma loses to Texas and Florida gets upset by Georgia? Peterson would be the only candidate left whose team didn’t just blow the national title and he would win.
If the Vote Were Held Today
1. Troy Smith
2. Adrian Peterson
3. Brady Quinn
4. Chris Leak
5. Steve Slaton
6. Michael Hart
7. Garrett Wolfe
8. Calvin Johnson
9. Ted Ginn
10. Marshawn Lynch
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