Archive | September, 2006

Peterson’s Advantage

I noted earlier this week that Adrian Peterson is at an advantage in the Heisman race due to the lowered expectations for his team and the fact that he is seen as the guy carrying them on his back.

This story in the Tulsa World reflects that mindset, as the focus is on how Peterson is succeeding despite not having his usual supporting cast.

…considering Peterson’s supporting cast, he may be in the midst of his best season yet:

* Peterson’s quarterback is not a returning Heisman Trophy winner.

* There are no Outland Trophies awaiting this offensive line.

* The fullbacks — once so good the All-Big 12 team created a spot for OU’s — are a converted linebacker and a former tight end who used to be a defensive end.

And yet, through four games, Peterson has 643 rushing yards, ranks second na tionally in rushing (160.8 yards per game) and is seventh with eight touchdowns.

Certainly, things are going Peterson’s way right now. Even though his team lost to Oregon, it still won in the court of public opinion.

Peterson’s reputation as a Heisman candidate could have been damaged, but he emerged unscathed.

Such invulnerability is one reason why he’s the Heisman front runner.

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Going To The Mat For Wolfe

I am the first to acknowledge that athletes from mid-major schools have little or no chance of winning the Heisman.

I can understand how some programs see such efforts as a waste of time and money, what with schools like Notre Dame and USC hogging the spotlight every year.

But, I am a little flummoxed over the decision by Northern Illinois to not mount a Heisman campaign on Garrett Wolfe’s behalf.

This would be a reasonable thing if it wasn’t for the fact that Wolfe is currently on pace to challenge Barry Sanders’ NCAA single-season rushing record of 2,628 yards.

The Heisman battlefield is littered with the corpses of failed publicity campaigns. Players with no chance in hell of coming anywhere near the trophy have been featured on the front of notepads, turned into bobblehead figures and touted on flashy web sites.

Now, the one time when there is a chance in hell, the decision is to play it cool.

Go figure.

Wolfe leads the nation in rushing with 207 yards per game and is listed in most projections as one of the top seven Heisman candidates. But NIU has done little on the periphery.

“Our campaign is of a non-gimmick nature,” sports information director Donna Turner said.

Said Novak: “Honestly, the best thing we’ve done is not send out hot sauce, not send out notepads. I still have 100 [notepads] sitting in my office. It was a waste of money.”

She is referring to NIU’s last campaign for Michael ‘The Burner’ Turner. But come on. Wolfe is way better than Turner and, thanks to his efforts against Ohio State and Michigan these past two seasons, he has a much higher national profile.

He deserves a real campaign.

I just did a quick perusal of the Northern Illinois web site. Nowhere on the site is it mentioned that, one-third of the way into the season, Wolfe is on his way to challenging Sanders’ mark.

Since I first noted it here at Heismanpundit.com on Monday, that stat has not been picked up anywhere else.

That’s a shame. If NIU is not going to make an effort for this guy, the SIDs there should at least give the media a good hook, a stat that can serve as the centerpiece of his non-campaign.

I’m talking like how the Texas SID in 1977 created the ‘yards after contact’ stat to tout Earl Campbell.

For instance, how about a website with a yardage countdown ticker entitled ‘Chasing Barry’?

Now, if you think I’m getting ahead of myself on this chasing-Barry-Sanders bit, then I submit to you the rest of the Northern Illinois schedule:

Ball State
Miami (OH)
Western Michigan
Temple
Iowa
Toledo
Central Michigan
Eastern Michigan

Wolfe is averaging 207 yards per game during the toughest part of his schedule. It doesn’t take much fantasizing to realize that he is going to top 1,000 yards this week against Ball State and will have a shot at 2,000 by the time he plays Iowa.

Once he gets past 2,000, Wolfe’s season could take on a magical, Barry Bonds-like quality (in a good way), as every yard will be ticked off and dissected as he approaches the record.

Those games against the directional Michigan schools at the end of his season? Well, they’d stand a good chance of garnering at least regional TV coverage as a result of his chasing Sanders.

And if it turns out that Wolfe doesn’t break the record, so what? Just as no one in the media got mad about Michael Turner’s failed campaign, there will be no repercussions this time for hyping a great player who falls a little short.

Garrett Wolfe is putting up yards at a rate not seen since Troy Davis in the mid-1990s. Davis was the Heisman runner up in 1996.

If he keeps up this pace, there’s no reason Wolfe can’t finish just as high.

Unless, of course, he doesn’t get the support he deserves.

Somebody do something for this guy

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All-American Updates–Defense

Thought I’d give up an update on how the HP preseason All-Americans are doing after four games.

First, the defense:

DE–LaMarr Woodley, Michigan–Woodley is having a year befitting of an HP All-American as he already has 5 sacks, 2 forced fumbles and a fumble return for a TD.

DE–Victor Abiamiri, Notre Dame–He’s having a good year, too, with 4.5 tackles for loss, 2 sacks and 3 quarterback hurries.

DT–Frank Okam, Texas–The big guy has 10 tackles, including 2 for losses plus a half sack to his credit.

DT–Baraka Atkins, Miami–Atkins is actually playing back at defensive end after playing tackle last year. So far, he has 2.5 tackles for loss and a sack, a pass break up and two fumble recoveries.

LB–Brandon Siler, Florida–Siler is the leader of a very good Gator defense. He has 23 tackles, 4 tackles for loss, 1 sack, 2 fumble recoveries and a forced fumble.

LB–Rey Maualuga, USC–He looks like the next great USC linebacker. He has 22 tackles, 3 tackles for loss, 1 sack and an interception so far.

LB–Patrick Willis, Ole Miss–The only bright side for the Rebels. He has 46 tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss, a sack, 3 pass breakups, and a fumble recovery.

CB–Eric Wright, UNLV–Wright has made a big impact so far as a first-year transfer from USC. He has 15 tackles, 1 interception, 5 pass breakups and 1 forced fumble.

CB–Antoine Cason, Arizona–Cason has had a nice year so far, with 21 tackles, 1 tackle for loss, 2 interceptions, 1 pass breakup and 1 fumble recovery.

S–Laron Landry, LSU–Landry has 15 tackles, one tackle for loss and 1 interception so far.

S–Josh Pinkard, USC–Pinkard tore his knee against Arkansas in the season opener and is out for the season.

Notes: After four games, I’m satisfied with most of my preseason picks.

If I had to make changes, I would:

–Replace Atkins with Glenn Dorsey of LSU. Dorsey has 21 tackles, 5 tackles for loss and 2 sacks for the Tigers.

–Replace Wright with Daymeion Hughes of Cal, who already has 5 interceptions, including 2 for TDs.

–Obviously, since Pinkard is out for the year, someone else would be better suited. At this point, I would go with Tom Zbikowski of Notre Dame, who has 30 tackles, 1 tackle for loss, 1 forced fumble and 1 fumble recovery for a TD.

Thoughts? Suggestions?

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Quick Hits

  • Check out Stew Mandel’s piece on Temple and how they are 33-point underdogs to Vandy.

    Following consecutive 62-0 losses to Louisville and Minnesota, the Owls, currently on a 16-game losing streak, were a 30-point underdog last week to Western Michigan. They didn’t cover, losing 41-7. “I’ve never seen a team in the last 10 years that’s been this non-competitive,” said Mike Seba, senior oddsmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants, which sets college football lines for many Vegas sports books. “It’s not asking that much [for Vanderbilt] to cover 33.”

    Agree. Sounds like a play this week.

  • It’s pretty amazing how spot-on SI.com’s Austin Murphy was with this column comparing USC’s fullback situation to Spinal Tap’s inability to keep its drummers alive.

    The story was only a couple days old when third-string Trojan fullback Stanley Havili went down with a broken femur. He’s the third USC fullback to sustain a serious injury so far this year.

    I wouldn’t want to be that fourth-string fullback right now.

    Note: We’ll be featuring a Q&A from Murphy soon.

  • Stats of Note:

    –Utah State is averaging 1.75 points through four games.

    –Let’s mark Chuck Long down as one of the worst new hires in college football. San Diego State is 0-4 and averaging just 11.7 points per game.

    –Bogus stat alert I: Georgia’s scoring defense. The Dawgs have played 1-AA Western Kentucky, South Carolina (76th in scoring after putting up 52 on FAU), UAB (112th in scoring) and Colorado (115th in scoring). No wonder they are fourth in scoring defense at 6.3 points per game. Anyone who saw Colorado march up and down the field on UGA knows that this unit could be in for some trouble once it faces a legitimate offense. Luckily, UGA won’t see many of those on its schedule.

    –Bogus stat alert II: Texas A&M’s scoring offense. The Aggies are seventh in scoring, averaging 39.8 points per game after wins over Citadel, Louisiana-Lafayette, Army and Louisiana Tech.

    –Stat Kudo I: Mkistro Bruce of Washington State already has seven sacks this year, thanks to a five-sack effort against Stanford.

    –Stat Kudo II: Running back Kory Sheets of Purdue already has scored 10 touchdowns.

    –Stat Kudo III: Dwight Lowery of San Jose State has five interceptions in three games. He’s on pace for 20 picks.

    –Stat Kudo IV: After four games, Utah has yet to allow a sack.

  • Comments { 62 }

    Sagarin’s Conference Rankings…

    …are out and, once again, the Pac-10 is his top conference.

    Discuss.

    Comments { 105 }

    Smith Leads Scripps Howard Poll

    The latest Scripps Howard Heisman poll is out and Ohio State’s Troy Smith maintained his lead over Adrian Peterson.

    The SHNS poll is a good gauge of the working college football media’s thinking on the Heisman. There are 10 voters, two from each region and they vote for five players each week.

    Here is this week’s poll, with first-place votes in parentheses:

    1. Troy Smith, QB, Ohio State, 46 (7).

    2. Adrian Peterson, RB, Oklahoma, 37 (2).

    3. Chris Leak, QB, Florida, 23.

    4. Steve Slaton, RB, West Virginia, 17 (1).

    5. Garrett Wolfe, RB, Northern Illinois, 11.

    Others: Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame 7; Kenny Irons, RB, Auburn, 5; Ted Ginn Jr., WR, Ohio State 2; Kevin Kolb, QB, Houston, 1; Mario Manningham, WR, Michigan 1.

    The voters: Kirk Bohls (Austin (Texas) American-Statesman); Scott Cain (Arkansas Democrat Gazette); Dennis Dodd (CBSSportsLine); Vahe Gregorian (St. Louis Post-Dispatch); Mike Griffith (Knoxville (Tenn.) News Sentinel); Randy Holtz (Rocky Mountain News); John Lindsay (Scripps Howard News Service); Michael Lewis (The Salt Lake Tribune); John Rohde (The Oklahoman); Michael Vega (The Boston Globe).

    Comments { 2 }

    How The Regions Shape Up

    The Heisman vote is divided up into six regions:

    Northeast
    Mid-Atlantic
    South
    Southwest
    Midwest
    Far West

    To really figure out how the Heisman race will turn, you have to look at which way the regions will lean.

    Let’s assume that the four remaining candidates all win out and have good seasons under their belts.

    There’s little doubt that the Southwest would go overwhelmingly to Adrian Peterson. Brady Quinn would clean up in the Northeast. Chris Leak would dominate the South.

    That leaves three swing regions: The Far West, the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic.

    I think that the Far West would split between Peterson and Quinn, who are the two most recognizable players to voters in that region. Most likely, if Quinn’s Irish beat USC, then the West would go his way, though some voters out there could also try to punish Quinn for beating the Trojans.

    Quinn will obviously be very strong in the Midwest, but I think Troy Smith would have a slight edge there.

    That leaves the Mid Atlantic, which I think Quinn and Leak have the best chances at capturing.

    It seems to me that Peterson is set up well in the regions. He will likely have second-place finishes in the South and Far West to go along with his dominance of the Southwest. I expect him to be second or third in the Northeast, thanks to his high profile. He won’t do as well in the Mid Atlantic, since Steve Slaton will get most of the running back votes there. He should finish third in the Midwest behind Smith and Quinn.

    Still a long way to go, but it looks like this could be a very close Heisman race.

    Comments { 2 }