There are 46 days left until the Heisman Tropy is awarded in New York City.
Right now, the race is in a state of suspended animation, as nothing can change fact that there are only two players left who can win the Heisman. Those two candidates will spend the next few weeks building their stat resumes, then the race will hurtle toward its climactic finish in the last couple Saturdays in November.
1. Troy Smith, Ohio State–Smith has been a model of efficiency all season long. While the Buckeye quarterback isn’t really producing spectacular moments on a weekly basis, he has had even fewer mishaps to speak of.
And, sometimes, the player who ends up winning the Heisman is the one who screws up the least.
Last week, Smith had another brilliant day, throwing for 220 yards and four touchdowns on 15 of 23 passing.
For the season (eight games), Smith has 1,715 passing yards (completed at a 68 per cent clip), 21 touchdown passes and just 2 interceptions. His pass efficiency rating is a stellar 176.4. After lagging in the rushing yardage department for most of the year, he has picked up the pace the last few weeks and now has 126 net rushing yards.
He is on pace to have 2,572 yards, 33 touchdowns and 3 interceptions by the time the Heisman votes are tallied. While the yardage number is pretty low compared to recent quarterback winners, his touchdowns, low interception total and efficiency rating are phenomenal.
Smith has several key advantages in this race. First and foremost, he is a senior quarterback playing for the No. 1 team in the country. That team also happens to be a traditional power–and one with a remarkable Heisman history at that. His stats are very good–though perhaps lacking in a couple areas. He has played well in big games on TV (Texas, Iowa) and, while he has not yet developed a recognizable persona with his helmet off, he has built enough momentum and name recognition to win the Heisman if the vote were held today.
For all that he has going for him, Smith’s Heisman fate will come down to Ohio State’s huge showdown with Michigan on Nov. 18.
There are three things that can happen:
1. Ohio State wins and Smith cruises to an easy Heisman win.
2. Ohio State loses and Smith finishes second.
3. Ohio State loses and Smith limps across the finish line with a narrow Heisman win.
Situations 2 and 3 will depend almost entirely upon the actions of the quarterback for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.
It’s simple: Beat Michigan, Win the Heisman
2. Brady Quinn, Notre Dame–Quinn was this site’s preseason pick to win the Heisman Trophy and, with a little luck, things could still go his way.
Last week, he threw for 304 yards on 27 of 45 passing with 2 touchdowns and no interceptions.
On the season (seven games), he has 1,938 passing yards, 18 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. His pass efficiency rating is 140.0.
He is on pace to have 3,322 passing yards, 31 touchdowns and 7 interceptions by the time the Heisman votes comes around.
As you can see, Quinn’s numbers–assuming he can keep it up–would be comparable to Smith’s after 12 games. Smith’s touchdown-to-interception ratio would be more impressive, but Quinn’s yardage would be considerably higher. Whatever the case, neither candidate looks like he will have a signficant stat advantage that the voters can use as a wedge to separate the two. Going into the season, Smith had his talents as a rusher to give him an extra boost, but that advantage is now gone.
Like Smith, Quinn is the quarterback for a traditional Heisman power–some would say the traditional Heisman power. While Smith currently trumps Quinn by playing for the No. 1 team, the Irish quarterback’s candidacy is undergirded by all the heft and majesty of playing for America’s most storied program.
One other thing going for Quinn–he’s got some magic to him. He was valiant in a comeback effort against USC last season, (in what turned out to be his Heisman debutante ball). He saved the Irish season by overcoming a fourth-quarter deficit to win against Michigan State and, most recently, he calmly rallied Notre Dame to a last-minute win over UCLA.
While he entered the race as the mighty front runner, he is now the Comeback Kid, the leader of a gutty Irish team that won’t quit.
So, what will it all come down to?
For Quinn to win, Ohio State needs to lose to Michigan. But that’s not all. One week later, Quinn must lead Notre Dame to a win over a (preferably) undefeated USC squad.
If those two events happen, then Quinn will surge to the Heisman.
There is one other scenario in which I could envision a very close race between these two. If Smith performs well in a close loss to Michigan and Quinn performs well in a win over a USC team that has already lost big to Cal, then neither candidate will have a clear cut mandate from the voters.
One advantage for Quinn in this case is that he gets the last chance to impress the voters.
He’s got the magic, but he needs Michigan to come through
How The Vote Would Go If It Were Held Today
1. Troy Smith
2. Brady Quinn
3. Steve Slaton
4. Michael Hart
5. Chris Leak
6. Marshawn Lynch
7. Erik Ainge
8. Calvin Johnson
9. Ray Rice
10. Colt Brennan
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