Just 40 more days remain until the awarding of the 72nd Heisman Trophy. Now, let’s look at what’s going on around college football:
What a difference a week makes. Seven days ago I had my worst day ever making picks against the spread, going an abominable 3-11. It was my first losing week of the season. But I bounced back BIG TIME this week, going a spectacular 11-2-1. On the season, I am now 65-49-3 (.570).
Everyone knew USC was ripe for an upset, but I’m sure most were a little surprised that Oregon State was the first team to be able to pluck the low-hanging fruit that the Trojans had become of late. It just goes to show you how tough it is to go undefeated in the brutal Pac-10, right everyone?
USC has had four-straight No. 1 recruiting classes, so its issues have nothing to do with talent. It’s very hard to stay on top, but USC was in about as good a position as possible following the 2004 season. Since then, a series of misteps and mishaps have put USC’s long term dominance in doubt. No one has more talent, but why the Trojans went away from what worked schematically in the years 2002-2004 is puzzling.
USC has now lost to Oregon State just twice since 1967. By the way, Fox color analyst Petros Papadakis was in the booth for the USC-OSU game and can now make the ignoble claim of being on hand for USC’s last two losses to the Beavers (the first time–in 2000–he was on the field for the Trojans and had a crucial fumble in a 31-21 defeat).
Michigan’s offense didn’t look very impressive against Northwestern. Luckily, Ball State is next or the ‘Game of the Century’–with its ridiculous ESPN Game Day Countdown Clock–might be in jeopardy. Oh, I think the chances of Mike Hart making that last-minute Heisman run are gonzo.
I’ve done my fair share of ripping the SEC for its cupcake out-of-conference scheduling, antebellum offenses and general reluctance to play road games, but let’s take the time to recognize just how bad the Big Ten is this year. Right now, this is a conference with Ohio State, Michigan and Wisconsin and not a whole lot more to offer. And even the Badgers looked bad against a Zook-coached Illinois team. Is it any wonder that two of the remaining five undefeated teams are both from the Big Ten?
My call last week of an Ole Miss upset of Arkansas was about as off as one could get. However, my reason for picking it was because I thought the Rebs had turned the corner a bit. Turns out they had, but it wouldn’t show for another week. Ole Miss just missed taking down Auburn on Saturday, losing 23-17 in a game that wasn’t decided until the fourth quarter. Ed Orgeron’s team is 2-7 but the losses to Georgia, Alabama and Auburn were by a total of 14 points–the difference between going to a bowl and having to stay in Oxford over the holidays.
Another conference worthy of scorn this season is the Big 12. Nebraska and Missouri just dropped from the AP poll, leaving only Texas, Oklahoma and Texas A&M in the rankings. The Aggies finish out with OU, Nebraska and Texas, which puts their current position (No. 21) in jeopardy. The Big 12 North is the real culprit. Dan Hawkins will have Colorado back soon enough, but things don’t look good for former powers K-State and Nebraska in the long term.
How mediocre is the ACC? The conference has five teams ranked, but all fall between No. 16 and No. 23.
Ohio State is very close to becoming a dominant team after a 44-0 win over Minnesota. I know, the Gophers are no good, but it is very hard to get shut outs in college football these days. The Buckeyes have given up just 7 touchdowns through 9 games, which is just insane. Ohio State is beginning to heat up on the scoring side, too, with two-straight 40-point efforts. Average score for the Buckeyes in 2006? 36-7. If Ohio State can keep it up defensively and win convincingly over Michigan and in the BCS Championship, you’d have to make a case for it being one of the most dominant teams in college football history.
Which teams are likely to contend for the national title in 2007? I like this group (in no particular order):
Michigan–The Wolverines bring back Henne, Hart and Manningham, but some key guys on defense must be replaced.
West Virginia–White and Slaton return, as does most of the defense.
USC–Almost everyone in the two-deep will be back, but they won’t be a contender unless Pete Carroll can find a legitimate offensive coordinator.
Florida–The Tim Tebow Era begins and he’ll have a ton of offensive talent around him. If the Gators can find a tailback, that’ll make a huge difference.
Texas–The lines will probably need to be rebuilt, but the talent is at hand. If Colt McCoy continues to improve and the new recruiting class lives up to expectations, the Longhorns will challenge for their second title in three years.
California–The Bears return nine starters on offense, including Nate Longshore and DeSean Jackson, but will likely lose Marshawn Lynch to the NFL. If Cal can replace a couple big-time defensive players, it could once again be the class of the Pac-10.
Tennessee–Assuming Erik Ainge and Robert Meachem return, the Vols will have a high-powered offense in place. The defense should be stout, too.
Wisconsin–The Badgers should return nine starters on offense and seven on defense from a team that may go 11-2 or 10-3.
About Heismanpundit
Chris Huston, A.K.A. ‘The Heisman Pundit‘, is a Heisman voter and the creator and publisher of Heismanpundit.com, a site dedicated to analysis of the Heisman Trophy and college football.
Dubbed “the foremost authority on the Heisman” by Sports Illustrated, HP is regularly quoted or cited during football season in newspapers across the country. He is also a regular contributor on sports talk radio and television.
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