So now we have the first sophomore Heisman winner, Florida’s Tim Tebow.
Let’s not forget the extraordinary circumstances that had to occur for this to be the end result.
1. Each of the front runners heading into the season, and those who became front runners during the season, stumbled.
2. Tebow benefitted from a healthy publicity buildup during his rather unorthodox freshman season, when he helped lead the Gators to a national title. While he didn’t have a huge freshman year statistically, his style of play boosted his name recognition heading into this season–more so than most sophomores with comparable numbers.
3. Tebow produced perhaps the greatest sophomore year by a player in history.
All these things took place and brought about Tebow’s solid win over Darren McFadden.
In a year that saw a lot of chaos in college football, with all the upsets and two-loss teams vying for titles, it made sense that a sophomore would finally break the Heisman glass ceiling.
Does that now mean that we are going to see a rash of underclass winners?
Don’t count on it. There are a few reasons:
1. Tebow’s win, as shown above, was the byproduct of an unlikely chain of events. Lightning doesn’t strike twice.
2. It is not necessarily voter bias that hurts sophomores and freshmen, but rather the natural growth of public awareness and name recognition that players go through during their careers. A player who has two years under his belt is almost always going to have more media exposure than a guy with one year and, hence, is more well-known to voters. It’s just common sense. Tebow was that rare exception.
3. Tebow’s season was so spectacular, it will be somewhat of a benchmark by which to compare future underclass candidates. Underclass candidates for years to come will be compared to Tebow.
What about Tebow’s chances for next year?
I stand by Heismandment No. 9, which states that there will never be another two-time winner. I certainly expect Tebow to finish in the top five in the final vote, but the prospect of him actually winning is virtually nil.
Again, there are many reasons for this as well:
1. Tebow fatigue. He’s currently the cat’s pajamas, but by fall of next year, he will most likely be overexposed. Voters are always on the lookout for a fresher face and the next big thing. At the same time, there will always be haters looking for chinks in his armor. There are plenty of Lex Luthors out there.
2. Voters are stingy and fickle. He’s already got his Heisman, maybe another player deserves it this year, they’ll figure.
3. Unless Tebow can have another stupendous year, the perception will be that he had a dropoff statistically. Florida is likely to have improved tailback play, meaning Tebow’s rushing stats will not be as good.
4. Percy Harvin could be a prime candidate next season, drawing attention away from Tebow. Plus, other candidates across the country will emerge and are unlikely to stumble to the extent that they did this year.
5. Heisman karma. Tebow was the player who best captured the zeitgeist of the 2007 season. Next year will have an entirely different feel and flow. Someone else is likely to step up and become that indispensable player.
Tebow already violated one Heismandment; I doubt the Heisman gods will be so forgiving next time.
