Archive | June, 2008

Some 2009 Candidates

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So who’s going to emerge from the 2008 season looking strong for the 2009 Heisman?

I figure Chris Wells, Percy Harvin and Tim Tebow will turn pro.

That leaves the following as possible contenders, assuming each produces a quality, resume-building season in 2008:

Stafon Johnson, Joe McKnight and Mark Sanchez of USC.

Sam Bradford and DeMarco Murray of Oklahoma.

Jimmy Clausen, Notre Dame.

Knowshon Moreno and Matt Stafford of Georgia.

Noel Devine, West Virginia.

Javarris James, Miami.

Jake Locker, Washington

Colt McCoy, Texas

Jeremy Maclin, Missouri

Zac Robinson, Oklahoma State

Feel free to add some more to this list in the comments section…

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Michigan or Notre Dame?

The Wolverines are rebuilding and retooling under Rich Rodriguez.  In a couple years, they’ll be back challenging for national titles.

Meanwhile, the Irish are coming off their worst season in memory.  Nowhere to go but up, right?

So, the question I ask is this:  Which team will win more games next year, Michigan or Notre Dame?

I’m thinking Michigan.

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The Dog Days of Summer

This is what a newly-purchased Phil Steele Preview Mag looks like after a day or two of summer reading:

By September, this thing will look like it has been through a war. The cover will eventually be severed from its moorings. Food and drink stains and the occasional crumb will find its way inside the pages. It will probably fall in the pool a couple times. Eventually it will smell like a combination of sun block, sweat and stale alcohol.

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A Quickie Heisman Watch

Without going into to much detail–that will all come a little later in the summer–here’s a list of players with the best chance of actually winning the Heisman at this point.  This is not a predicted order of the final tally, so some guys who will eventually garner a lot of votes–like Tim Tebow–may not be listed here.

1. Chris Wells, Ohio State

2. Chase Daniel, Missouri

3. Percy Harvin, Florida

4. Patrick White, West Virginia

5.  Colt McCoy, Texas

6.  Stafon Johnson, USC

7.  Marlon Lucky, Nebraska

8.  Keiland Williams, LSU

9.  Graham Harrell, Texas Tech

10.  C.J. Spiller, Clemson

I think that, at this point, it is highly likely that the 2008 Heisman will go to one of the players on this list.

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Who Won’t Win The Heisman

Figuring out the essentials of the Heisman race is as much about knowing who can’t win as who can.

As much as I love Phil Steele, handicapping the Heisman is not about throwing a list of 50 guys against a wall and seeing who sticks. In reality, there’s probably only 10 players out there who have a real chance at winning in a given season.

That group usually consists of:

1. Established quarterbacks, running backs or multi-purpose athletes who play for traditional powers or teams in the national title race.

2. Currently unknown commodities from powerhouse schools who have yet to emerge on the scene.

As for who won’t win, let’s start by throwing out all the linebackers, defensive linemen, defensive backs, offensive tackles, fullbacks, tight ends and non-kick-or-punt-returning wide receivers right now, even though you are certain to, at some point, read an off-the-wall column about one of them having a shot at, or an argument for, the trophy.

They don’t.

There is an award for linebackers–it’s called a Butkus. There are a bunch of awards for the big uglies–the Outland, the Lombardi, the Nagurski and so on. If you are a fine defensive back, good for you. Go get the Thorpe. And no, I don’t care if his coach really thinks he should win. He won’t.

Yes, I know that gutty player from a little school going 12-0 is probably going to throw for 5 million yards. Too bad. Unless he really does throw for 5 million yards, he doesn’t have a chance in hell of winning.

So Graham Harrell, James Laurinaitis, Armanti Edwards, Rey Maualuga, Travis Beckum, Max Hall, Eric Berry, Jermaine Gresham, George Selvie, Malcolm Jenkins, Taylor Mays, Myron Rolle and the rest of you fine players of similar position out there…..I’m sorry. Some of you may get some votes, but you are not legitimate Heisman candidates any more than Ron Paul is a legitimate Presidential candidate.

Now that this is established, we can move on to talking about who has a chance at actually winning the trophy. Remember, here at HP we look at the race as it is, not how it should be.

James Laurinaitis

He may look tough, but he’s no Heisman contender

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The Latest Top 10

Here’s my latest stab at a top 10 for the coming season. This is a power ranking, based on which teams are in the best shape heading towards the fall.

1. Florida–The Gators feature arguably the two best players in the country in Tim Tebow and Percy Harvin. This could also be the fastest team in the country, bar none. All that young defensive talent is a year older and should be more effective, which will take the pressure off an already-deadly offense.

2. Oklahoma–Last year’s Sooners led the nation in the offensive yards per point (YPP) stat, which measures a team’s scoring efficiency. Most of that talent from that offense is back. Incoming freshman tailback Jermie Calhoun has the potential to be an instant star.

3. Ohio State–This is Jim Tressel’s best team since his 2002 title squad. They are fundamentally sound, talented across the board and will do almost nothing special to beat you. If they lose, they will lose playing Tressel Ball. That approach equals a win over 95 per cent of the teams out there, but requires all the planets to align properly for a clean sweep of the schedule. Doesn’t hurt to have the Heisman front runner in Chris Wells at tailback.

4. Georgia–I thought the Bulldogs were the best team in the country at the end of last season. How well they play this season, I think, depends almost entirely upon the development of Matt Stafford. If he makes that jump to becoming a top 5 or top 10 quarterback in the country, the Dawgs will be tough to beat.

5. USC–The Trojans are, once again, the nation’s most talented team. Once again, they are unlikely to play like the sum of all their parts. A ferocious back seven and a darkhorse Heisman contender in Stafon Johnson should ease the transition to the Mark Sanchez era.

6. Missouri–The Tigers are almost like Florida-lite on offense, with Chase Daniel and Jeremy Maclin playing the parts of Tebow and Harvin. Unless Missouri reverts back to being, well, Missouri, this should be another pretty good team.

7. LSU–Had Ryan Perrilloux not screwed up for the umpteenth time on his way to being booted from the program, I was prepared to put the Tigers at No. 1. I felt that Perriloux and tailback Keiland Williams were clear talent upgrades over Matt Flynn and Jacob Hester. But, alas for the Tigers, only one half of that equation will return. This team will be as good as its quarterback plays.

8. Texas–Colt McCoy is back for his third year as a starter, but I’d like to see how Texas can take advantage of the skills of John Chiles. As usual, the Longhorns will have the talent to win 10 games.

9. Brigham Young–This year’s potential BCS buster is tough, confident and physical, traits befitting of a team coached by a guy named ‘Bronco.’ I think the Cougars have a good shot at getting through the regular season unscathed.

10. Oregon–One would think that the task of replacing Dennis Dixon would be too difficult to warrant a top 10 ranking. However, I think that Nic Costa will slide nicely into the Chip Kelly system and, if healthy, Jeremiah Johnson could approach Jonathan Stewart‘s production at tailback. A sound defense should provide a buffer in the early going while these two get acclimated.

On the cusp: Auburn, Tennessee, South Florida, Texas Tech, Clemson

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A Playoff On The Horizon?

The Wiz thinks high gas prices could play a part. The following map shows where the highest gas prices are concentrated.:

gas

That’s pretty snazzy stuff, but what about this one?

coke

Surely, there must be some relevance to college football somewhere in this map…

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