Archive | December, 2008

Predictions for the remaining bowls

The bowls are so hard to predict.  Sometimes the teams that show up are completely different than the teams you saw in the regular season.  But, here goes:

Missouri 49, Northwestern 27 (Missou -13)

Maryland 24, Nevada 20 (Maryland +2.5)

Oklahoma State 38, Oregon 35 (OSU -2.5)

Rice 31, Western Michigan 17 (Rice -3)

Houston 42, Air Force 24 (Houston -3.5)

Pitt 17, Oregon State 14 (Pitt +2.5)

Boston College 27, Vanderbilt 10 (BC -3.5)

Kansas 41, Minnesota 28 (Kansas -9)

Georgia 28, Michigan State 17 (UGA -7.5)

Georgia Tech 28, LSU 20 (GTU -4)

Clemson 21, Nebraska 20 (Nebraska +2.5)

USC 20, Penn State 10 (USC -9)

Cincinnati 23, Virginia Tech 17 (Cincinnati -2)

Texas Tech 34, Ole Miss 14 (Texas Tech -4)

East Carolina 28, Kentucky 23 (ECU -3)

Alabama 35, Utah 17 (Bama -10)

Buffalo 30, Connecticut 27 (Buffalo +4.5)

Texas 27, Ohio State 17 (Texas -8.5)

Tulsa 41, Ball State 34 (Tulsa +1.5)

Florida 49, Oklahoma 31 (Florida -3)

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The Best Hope

It’s not too often that a player from a school without a whole lot of Heisman tradition can make a real, legitimate run at the trophy.

Cal’s Jahvid Best has a chance to do just that in 2009.

The true sophomore finished with 1,580 yards and 15 touchdowns this year while averaging a nation-best 8.1 yards per carry.   Since Reggie Bush came along, there’s been a lot of talk about this or that guy being the ‘next’ Bush, but Best is, I think, the closest thing to it.

Mind you, the guy is faster than Bush and, while not as shifty, could end up being a more complete running back.   He only had 194 carries this past season.  If he had gotten 50 more carries, you might’ve seen him break the 2,000-yard barrier.

The one drawback with Best is that, like a Ferrari, he’s always in the shop.  He has had a smattering of injuries that have slowed him down here and there.  To his credit, he has the toughness to fight through it.  But if he wants to compete for the Heisman next year, staying healthy is his most important task. I’d also like to see Cal make a concentrated early pitch on his behalf.  The last Cal back to crack 2,000 yards didn’t sniff the Heisman.  But Best is a different breed, the kind of guy who will produce highlight after highlight.  And he’s got a great name, to boot.

Right now, he’s the No. 1 2009 running back candidate.  By this time next year, he might be the ‘best’ overall player.

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Smart Move By Chizik

A lot of people didn’t like the hire of Gene Chizik at Auburn, but he went ahead and scored a coup by getting Gus Malzahn away from Tulsa.   That move pretty much assures Auburn will be on the cutting edge of offensive football in the coming years, which is exactly what it needed going head-to-head with the Saban juggernaut at Bama.

Question:  Does Charles Barkley know who Malzahn is?

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Merry Christmas from HP

Thanks to everyone for another great season.  Hope you and yours stay safe and enjoy the holiday season.

I’ll be back after Christmas with a look at the big bowl games and some of the internal data from the Heisman race.

Peace,

HP

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The Hubris of Athletic Directors

It’s amazing how athletic directors at major universities just don’t do their homework when it comes to their most important task:  hiring, retaining and firing coaches.  We’ve already seen ridiculous hires this offseason like Lane Kiffin at Tennessee and Steve Sarkisian at Washington, but now it appears that Arizona’s 31-21 upset of BYU has enabled Mike Stoops to finagle his way to a contract extension .  The A.D. at Arizona calls it a ‘no-brainer.’  I do agree that someone with no brain could have made this decision just as easily.

On the surface, you look at Arizona this year and say "Hey, they went 8-5 and won their first bowl in a while, Stoops did a good job!"

A closer look, however, reveals that this is most likely the best Stoops will ever do at Arizona. And that, despite the confetti and hype from the nice win over BYU, 2008 was a missed opportunity for Arizona football.

First, let’s recap what has transpired since Stoops took over in Tucson.  He has gone 3-8, 3-8, 6-6, 5-7 and 8-5.  So this is his first winning season.

But how did he go 8-5 this year?

Well, first he played a non-conference schedule consisting of Idaho, Toledo and New Mexico.

Second, his team went 5-4 against the worst Pac-10 in at least the last 20 years.  Two of his wins in conference were against two of the worst teams in football–Washington and Washington State.  Two other wins were against teams (UCLA and ASU) that would, in any other year, be the two worst in the league (since those two teams each got two free wins against the Washington schools, they ended up 7th and 8th in the conference instead of 9th and 10th).

Third, he had a four-year starting quarterback leading an offense that tied for the most first-team all-conference selections and that also included the Pac-10′s all-time leading receiver.  Both the quarterback and the receiver were seniors.

Fourth, three of the four toughest games in conference were played in Tucson.

In other words, the schedule, the roster and the makeup of the league were set up in such a way that any coach with a modicum of ability should’ve been able to produce a 9-3 regular season, with a shot at a 10th win in the bowl and a subsequent national ranking.   This past year was set up on a silver platter for Stoops.  This was his year to strike!  Nine or 10 wins means you can go on the recruiting trail with confidence and perhaps parlay that into a top 10 or top 15 recruiting class.  Maybe 10 wins keeps guys like Devon Kennard in state.   If you get 10 wins, you become a hot program.

Instead, what actually happened is that Arizona suffered an embarrassing loss to New Mexico, got upset by Stanford and failed to ambush vulnerable USC and Oregon State teams at home.  The Wildcats ended up 2-3 against teams with winning records and 6-2 against teams with losing records.  Again, this happened with a veteran offense, a favorable schedule and a Pac-10 consisting of five teams under .500 (with two of the teams among the worst in conference history).

What is going to happen next season, when the Wildcats will replace Toledo and New Mexico with Central Michigan and Iowa;  when a new quarterback must be broken in and when Arizona must go on the road to face USC, Cal and Oregon State?

That’s right, you can expect Arizona to revert back to somewhere between 3-9 and 5-7.  Four years later, Stoops might go 7-5 again, but I’m not sure that’s what the Arizona athletic director is envisioning right now.  I bet he thinks, or at least pretends to think, that Stoops has turned the corner and that bowl games will now be a regularity in Tucson.   He’s in for a rude awakening.

The Pac-10 used to be a coaches conference, but a good 40 percent of the league’s coaches are not up to the task.  Adding more years to Stoops contract will only prolong that fact.   It’s a shame.

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The 2008 HP All-American Team–Defense

We did the 2008 HP All-American Offense team on Friday, now the defense:

Defensive Ends

1st team–Brian Orakpo, Texas; Aaron Maybin, Penn State

2nd team–Brandon Graham, Michigan; Jerry Hughes, TCU

3rd team–Clay Matthews, USC; Nick Reed, Oregon

Orakpo and Maybin wreaked havoc all year long for two teams that just missed out on the national title game.

Defensive Tackles

1st team–Gerald McCoy, Oklahoma; Peria Jerry, Ole Miss

2nd team–Fili Moala, USC; Terrance Cody, Alabama

3rd team–Mitch King, Iowa; Brian Price, UCLA

McCoy was the main cog in the middle for the Sooners while Jerry was a pariah to SEC offenses.

Outside Linebacker

1st team–Brian Cushing, USC; Sean Weatherspoon, Missouri

2nd team–Sergio Kindle, Texas; Clint Sintim, Virginia

3rd team–Kaluka Maiava, USC; Rennie Curran, Georgia

Cushing was the most outstanding backer on the No. 1 defense, while Weatherspoon was one of the few bright spots for the Tigers on that side of the ball.

Inside Linebacker

1st team–Brandon Spikes, Florida

2nd team–Rey Maualuga, USC

3rd team–James Laurinaitis, Ohio State

Spikes was a preseason HP All-American and did not disappoint, as he led a resurgent Gator defense.

Cornerback

1st team–Vontae Davis, Illinois; Malcolm Jenkins, Ohio State

2nd team–Trevard Lindley, Kentucky; Alterraun Verner, UCLA

3rd team–Cary Harris, USC; Syd’Quan Thompson, Cal

Davis and Jenkins were not only the best corners in the Big Ten, but also the country.  Both will be first-round picks.

Safety

1st team–Taylor Mays, USC; Eric Berry, Tennessee

2nd team–Rashad Johnson, Alabama; Kevin Ellison, USC

3rd team–Morgan Burnett, Georgia Tech; Michael Hamlin, Clemson

Both Mays and Berry were on the HP preseason team and both had magnificent seasons.

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The 2008 HP All-American Team–Offense

It’s time for the fifth edition of the very prestigious HP All-American squad.  First, the offense:

Quarterback

1st team–Colt McCoy, Texas

2nd team–Sam Bradford, Oklahoma

3rd team–Tim Tebow, Florida

This was a very tough choice, obviously.  But I thought McCoy was the best all-around quarterback in 2008

Running Back

1st team–Kendall Hunter, Oklahoma State

2nd team–Knowshon Moreno, Georgia

3rd team–Jahvid Best, Cal

Not a great year for backs, but I thought Kendall Hunter foreshadowed what should be a fantastic career, as he went for 1,518 yards and 14 TDs while averaging almost 7 yards per carry as just a sophomore.

Fullback

1st team–Eric Kettani, Navy

2nd team–Stanley Havili, USC

3rd team–Brannan Sutherland, Georgia

Other All-American teams forget the fullback spot.  Not us.  It’s a position on the football field and should have a representative.

Tight End

1st team–Jermaine Gresham, Oklahoma

2nd team–Rob Gronkowski, Arizona

3rd team–Dennis Pitta, BYU

I thought this was a no-brainer.  Gresham is a true tight end and a physical phenom.  No other tight end was as dominant as this guy.

Wide Receiver

1st team–Michael Crabtree, Texas Tech; Austin Collie, BYU

2nd team–Dez Bryant, Oklahoma State; Jordan Shipley, Texas

3rd team–Jeremy Maclin, Missouri; Eric Decker, Minnesota

Crabtree is one of the greatest college wide outs of all time after just two seasons.  Collie paced an exciting BYU passing attack.

Offensive Line

Per HP tradition, we will not choose individual All-Americans on the offensive line.

We refuse to do so because, unlike other people who pick All-Americans, we admit that we have no idea who really are the best offensive linemen.

There are no individual stats to go by. Highlights rarely show what they do. We could go off of hearsay, but wouldn’t that be dishonest? What’s more, there are 600 starting offensive linemen in Division One.  It’s almost impossible to have seen enough of them to know who is really the best. So, while other All-American teams choose linemen almost solely based on reputation, we will not.

However, we will choose the best line unit in the country, since this is a bit easier to quantify. That honor goes to Oklahoma, which was the cornerstone of an attack that scored over 700 points.  These guys kept Sam Bradford’s jersey clean.  And we all know what happens when Bradford has time to throw.

Coming later, the HP Defensive All-Americans...

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