Archive | January, 2009

The First Heisman Watch of 2009

With all the early entry candidates announced, here’s how I see the Heisman race shaping up right now.  These are the guys who I think have the best chance to actually win the Heisman:

1.  Colt McCoy, Texas–He was last year’s Heisman runner up and was about 2 seconds away from winning it (before he was foiled by Crabtree and Tech), so I can see Heisman voters giving him prime consideration this season.  It helps that guys like Jordan Shipley and Malcolm Williams are back to catch his passes and, no doubt, he’ll still be getting some yards with his feet as well.  Also, the Longhorn schedule is favorable and they could well go undefeated.

2.  Tim Tebow, Florida–He could become the Grover Cleveland of the Heisman, winning the trophy twice but in non-consecutive seasons.   Voters obviously have tremendous respect for the guy, but let’s not forget that Tebow fatigue is a real issue and voters tend to gravitate toward the fresher face.

3.  Jahvid Best, Cal–The nation’s most exciting running back, he’ll put up highlight run after highlight run.  If he stays healthy–a big if–a 2,000-yard season seems feasible.  The biggest hurdle that voters will be watching for:  How he does against USC.

4.  Terrelle Pryor, Ohio State–He showed his talent against Texas in the Fiesta Bowl, when he nearly led the upset.  I can see him coming back next year as a better thrower, which will make him even more dangerous.  He’s got a big early game with USC to establish his Heisman credentials.

5.  Daryll Clark, Penn State–He showed he was a big time player in his first season as a starter and he should continue to grow in 2009.  If he can lead the Nittany Lions to another Big Ten title, he’ll get some Heisman acclaim.

6.  Jevan Snead, Ole Miss–The talented quarterback of a hot, up-and-coming team, he could be like Eli Manning, who finished third in the Heisman for the Rebs in 2003 and then was the first pick in the draft.

7.  Joe McKnight, USC–His place here is more the result of his potential rather than his production.  No player at USC has been hyped more in recent seasons, so if he ever lives up to it, he’ll reap the rewards of being a Trojan tailback.

8.  Noel Devine, West Virginia–With Pat White gone, the spotlight is all on Devine.  He quietly had a 1,300-yard sophomore season.  Look for him to make a big jump as a junior.

9.  Zac Robinson, Oklahoma State–A very efficient passer and nimble runner, he could be all that stands in between Texas/Oklahoma and a possible undefeated season.  As underrated as they come in college football.

10.  Sam Bradford, Oklahoma–If anyone is going to win two Heismans, I’d think it would be Tim Tebow, not Bradford.  It will be hard for Bradford to duplicate his success of this past season, what with four of OU’s linemen departing.  He’ll be in the conversation for the Heisman–especially early–but winning it is a long shot.

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History has been made; here we go again!

For the first time in the history of the Heisman Trophy, the top three finishers in a single year’s voting will all return for another season.

Sam Bradford, Colt McCoy and Tim Tebow have all made it official.  They are coming back for another go at it.

Should be another amazing Heisman race in ’09.  But who’s the favorite?  I’ll have my first preseason Heisman list as soon as all the early entries into the NFL draft are announced.

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Thoughts on the game

I think this is the post I’ve dreaded for a while.  I’m so sad that the college football season is over and we will not have nearly as much to talk about.  That said, here are my final thoughts on the BCS title game:

—It’s pretty clear now that the Gators are in the middle of the same kind of run that we saw USC and Miami make earlier in the decade.  Winning two titles in three years is no easy feat.  Urban Meyer has done that and, when you take into account his undefeated season at Utah in 2004, you have to consider him to be the unquestioned top coach in college football.  It seems almost quaint now what people were saying in 2005 when he was hired.  Stuff about the spread not working in the SEC and so on.  Of course, here at HP, we predicted that Meyer would not only dominate the league, but that his presence would cause the rest of the conference to change for the better.  And so, here the SEC sits, with much improved coaching to go along with the best talent in the country.  I see no reason why Meyer can’t keep it up, although we have seen in the past that such dynasties are not taken down from without, but from within, and usually due to things like ego and hubris.

—I thought it was a very entertaining game.  Obviously, we did not have the scoring fest that everyone predicted.  I thought the two teams were fairly equal in terms of talent.  Florida just has a couple more playmakers and that was the difference.

—Curses to Fox for yet again putting on a horrible telecast.  The first Florida touchdown did not feature a proper camera angle, but that did not stop the color commentator from declaring that is was ‘clearly’ a touchdown.  Uh, no, it was NOT clear.  We also learned that the Fox guys were newly exposed to Tim Tebow, as we were subjected to phrases like “Spending 20 minutes with Tebow will make you a better human being.”   And did we really need to see that shot of New England Patriots owner Bob Kraft?  Who gives a flip?  Certainly not the millions of college football fans viewing the game.

—The best player on the field was Oklahoma defensive tackle Gerald McCoy.  I don’t know if he is going pro or not, but that guy has to be the first pick in the draft when he does come out.  The second-best player on the field might’ve been Florida defensive end Carlos Dunlap.  Oh, Percy Harvin, Tebow and Jermaine Gresham were pretty good, too…

Sam Bradford played a solid game for the most part, but his flaw is that he doesn’t always find ways to make things happen when the play breaks down.  The Sooners missed two huge opportunities inside the 10-yard line and if those go differently, OU probably wins.

—Watching the two teams made me think about future offensive trends.  We are seeing the rise of the Spread Defense now in college football, as coaches retool their rosters to deal with the tough-to-stop Spread.  As a result, we are seeing an emphasis on smaller linebackers who can run and safeties who can cover.  For much of the season, Oklahoma exploited that size issue by retaining a powerful downhill running game.  And its no-huddle, fast-break tempo meant that defenses had trouble substituting.  Meanwhile, you have Florida, which often utilizes smaller smurf-types to press its offensive attack.  I think the next trend to counter the defensive moves is to utilize a no-huddle, fast break spread that uses smurf running backs and receivers and still maintains an element of downhill I-formation running behind a massive offensive front.  Basically, put Jeff Demps, Jacquizz Rodgers, Trindon Holiday and Derrick Williams on Oklahoma and you’d have the ideal offense for 2009.  I predict that the next few seasons will see tons more college football stars who are 5-9 and below.

—The next deadline we are waiting for is January 15.  That’s when the NFL declaration deadline hits and that’s when we can unveil our first real Heisman list for 2009.  I am surprised that Tebow is returning, though with his recent surgery, it makes sense.  The people who think he should be an H-back in the NFL are nuts and are typical of the arrogant mentality that surrounds that league.

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Final HP Top Ten

I’ll have thoughts on the BCS title game tomorrow.  For now, here is my final top 10 teams.  Before I give my final top 10, I think it is noteworthy to recognize that my two top preseason teams were Oklahoma and Florida.  Here we go:

1.  Florida

2.  Oklahoma

3.  USC

4.  Texas

5.  Utah

6.  Alabama

7.  Penn State

8.  Ohio State

9.  TCU

10.  Oregon

On the cusp: Ole Miss, Texas Tech, Boise State, Georgia, Virginia Tech

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Oklahoma vs. Florida

Well, the game is just about upon us.  It’s sad, really, that we have to wait another nine months for college football to start up again.

I think this bowl season has served to remind us of the importance of varying styles and familiarity in college football.  This is why I maintain that bowls don’t really give us a sound basis to judge a conference.  Bowls often bring together teams with very different styles and the result is usually not what we’d see if the teams played each other more often.  The bowls are laboratories, in a sense, one-time experiments that don’t necessarily translate to what the regular season was all about.

And so we’ll see two unique teams take the field on Thursday night.  College football partisans from around the country will pore over the data in order to glean as much meaning as possible from what transpires.

If Florida wins, we are guaranteed to hear talk of SEC speed and talent being too much for other conferences.  Never mind that Oklahoma and Florida are pretty evenly matched in the talent department, though Florida is an exceptionally fast squad.  However, Florida beat the rest of the SEC (outside of Ole Miss, of course), by an average margin of 34 points.   So how would Florida beating Oklahoma mean that the rest of the SEC is suddenly supreme?  If OU loses by less than 34, can it then claim to have done better (on average) against Florida than the rest of the SEC?  It’s silly.

Looking at this game, you can’t really compare opponents or stats.  You have to look at what will happen when these two styles collide and which matchups will be exploited as a result.  It is true that OU has not seen a defense like Florida’s.  However, it is also true that Florida has not seen a passing attack like OU’s.

Sam Bradford is almost unstoppable when he is not being pressured.  In my mind, the key to the game is how much pressure the Florida defense can put on the Heisman winner.

We have to remember, too, that this is not the same type of OU offense that has appeared in past BCS title games.  The tempo of the Sooner offense is unique and there is not as much predictability based on personnel usage as in past years.

As a result, I think this game is going to get off to a wild start.  I can see Florida scoring quickly with big plays from its skill guys–OU’s defense will only be asked to slow down, not stop the Gators.

I think that OU will be able to methodically pick its way down the field early and keep Florida off balance with its running game.

However, I think that by the middle of the third quarter, something is going to give.  At that point, I can see Florida’s pressure getting to Bradford.  Mistakes will then happen and the Gators will capitalize.  I can also see a back-breaking punt or kick return by Brandon James contributing to the final result.

What was a close game will turn into a blowout.  I think that Florida will win this one, 49-31, and Percy Harvin will be the MVP.

This game will entrench Urban Meyer as the best coach in the game.  Two national titles (in three years) plus an undefeated season since 2004 and a Heisman is pretty impressive.

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5 Quick Thoughts

1.  Colt McCoy is the Heisman front runner for next season, regardless of who comes back.

2.  Did anyone else get the sense that Ohio State’s use of Boeckman and Pryor at the same time was Jim Tressel’s way of responding to criticism that he never does anything creative on offense?  I did.

3.  Terrelle Pryor is going to be a monster next year. When he runs, he is so much like Vince Young, it’s scary.

4.  How much will Chris Well’s lack of durability affect his draft status?  If I’m an NFL GM, I’m not sure I pick him, even though he’s a great back.  Like Carnell Williams, he is just a tightly-wound guy who is always hurt.

5.  We’ve seen the rise of the spread offense.  Next up is the rise of the spread defense, as coaches find ways to slow down the spread.  However, offenses are countering by going even smaller and quicker, recruiting tons of waterbugs (guys 5-8 and below) to play running back and wide receiver.

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Heisman Winners In Bowl Games

Since we are about to witness this year’s Heisman winner in his bowl game, I thought it would be worthwhile to look back on how the last 20 Heisman winners fared in their bowls:

(for how all the winners have done, click here )

1988, Barry Sanders– 29 carries, 222 yards, 5 TDs (win)

1989, Andre Ware– no bowl

1990, Ty Detmer– 11 of 23, 120 yards, 1 TD, 1 int (loss)

1991, Desmond Howard– 35 receiving yards, 95 total yards (loss)

1992, Gino Toretta– 24 of 56, 278 yards, 0 TDs, 3 ints (loss)

1993, Charlie Ward– 24 of 43, 286 yards, 0 TDs, 0 ints (win)

1994, Rashaan Salaam– 27 carries, 83 yards, 3 TDs (win)

1995, Eddie George– 25 carries, 101 yards, 1 TD (loss)

1996, Danny Wuerffel– 18 of 34, 306 yards, 3 TDs, 1 int (win)

1997, Charles Woodson– 1 int, 4 tackles, 7 receiving yards (win)

1998, Ricky Williams– 30 carries, 203 yards, 2 TDs (win)

1999, Ron Dayne– 34 carries, 200 yards, 1 TD (win)

2000, Chris Weinke– 25 of 52, 276 yards, 0 TDs, 2 ints (loss)

2001, Eric Crouch– 22 carries, 114 yards, 5 of 15, 62 yards, 1 int (loss)

2002, Carson Palmer– 21 of 31, 303 yards, 1 TD (win)

2003, Jason White– 13 of 37, 102 yards, 0 TDs, 2 ints (loss)

2004, Matt Leinart– 18 of 35, 332 yards, 5 TDs, 0 ints (win)

2005, Reggie Bush– 13 carries, 82 yards, 1 TD, 6 receptions, 95 yards, 279 all-purpose yards (loss)

2006, Troy Smith– 4 of 14, 35 yards, 1 int (loss)

2007, Tim Tebow– 17 of 33, 154 yards, 3 TDs, 0 ints, 16 carries, 57 yards, 1 TD (loss)

Heisman winners are 2-6 in bowls in this decade.  Can Sam Bradford turn it around?

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