One of the weird anomalies in college football is the fact that, despite being one of the top three or four programs of all time, Alabama has yet to win a Heisman.

Now, there are a few who think this might be the result of some sort of bias against Southern football.  But a closer look at it reveals that it can generally be ascribed to the lack of offensive production by Tide players over the years.  Whether we like it or not, it takes yards and touchdowns to win a Heisman and the various ’Bama offenses haven’t been prone to producing superlative individual seasons.

As you can see, a good chunk of Alabama’s top 10 Heisman finishers have been defensive players.  Hard to win Heismans that way.

But I think things are about to change.

With the Tide’s resurgence under Nick Saban, we’re starting to see an influx of outstanding offensive talent heading to Tuscaloosa.  And the talent that was already on hand when he got there is starting to produce, too.

Case in point, junior quarterback Greg McElroy.  He’s currently third in the nation in passing efficiency with a rating of 175.15 (tops among BCS conference signal callers).  He is on pace to become Alabama’s first 3,000-yard passer in his first year as a starter.  He’s accurate (68 percent) and has just one interception in his first 93 attempts.

One can properly presume that with a fine season under his belt in 2009, McElroy will be getting some Heisman hype heading into 2010.

Then there is the case of super frosh tailback Trent Richardson.  Alabama under Saban will probably always have a strong ground game, but I think there’s a good chance that Richardson will, in the next couple seasons, develop into a great back.  Before too long, he might be a legit Heisman contender.

As long as Saban stays at Alabama, the talent will keep coming in and the Tide will be among the nation’s top teams.  If the Bama offense continues to improve the way it has in 2009, it’s only natural to think that some of that talent will eventually have a shot at the Heisman Trophy.

In looking at some of the comments on this site and elsewhere, many seem to think it is a fait accompli that Tim Tebow merely has to show up for games in order to be awarded the Heisman.

I do grant that he is a larger-than-life presence on the college football landscape and that he has, in many ways, transcended some of the normal statistical requirements of a Heisman winner.

But let’s not forget what got him to this point.  It’s not just that he is a great leader and a clutch player. 

What won him the Heisman as a 2007 sophomore was one of the great statistical seasons of all time.

In 2007, Tebow passed for 3,286 yards, completed 67 percent of his passes, threw 32 TD passes versus just 6 interceptions, and also rushed for 895 yards and 23 TDs. 

No matter how you cut it, running and passing for 55 touchdowns means you are probably going to win the Heisman.

Tebow had another very good year in 2008, but the decline in his output was significant.  He passed for fewer yards and touchdowns, his completion percentage went down, as did his rushing yards, per carry average and rushing touchdowns. 

Meanwhile, Oklahoma’s Sam Bradford also rushed and (mostly) passed for 55 touchdowns. 

Guess what? 

If you run and pass for 55 touchdowns, you are most likely going to win the Heisman.  Plain and simple, that’s why Bradford beat out Tebow last year.

(note:  the only sophomores to win the Heisman both accounted for 55 touchdowns in their winning seasons.  Coincidence?)

And so we come to 2009.  To date, Tebow’s stats look like they may, once again, decline from the previous season.  Currently, he is on pace to throw for just 1,929 yards with 18 touchdowns and just 3 picks.  His rushing yardage looks to be back on the uptick, as he projects to 813 yards and 15 TDs. 

These passing numbers are unlikely to hold pace, but there remains a good chance that they will still end up well below his 2008 production, especially given his health questions and the recent unreliability of Florida’s receivers.

In 2006, Troy Smith won the Heisman while passing for 2,507 yards, which was the lowest yardage total by a Heisman-winning quarterback since 1971.  Like Tebow, Smith was the unquestioned leader of the No. 1 team and stats weren’t the be-all and end-all to his candidacy.  But he had a better year than almost every other candidate and won all his big games and that’s why he won the Heisman. 

Stats aren’t everything when it comes to the Heisman.  I don’t want readers to think that only raw numbers determine the winner.  But voters require that players cross a certain (somewhat undefined) statistical threshhold before being considered Heisman worthy.  Once that threshhold is met, then other factors such as team success, performance in big games and a bunch of other intangibles are added to the mix.  Tebow’s stats must first pass that Heisman smell-test before voters will consider granting him that second trophy.  We just don’t know what that smell test entails at this moment, though it should become more clear as the season goes on.

At this point, it looks like the only way for Tebow to win is if he increases his output while every other candidate implodes.  I believe this to be an unlikely scenario. 

Can Tebow throw for 2,500 yards and rush for 600 and win the Heisman?  I don’t think it is likely if Texas is undefeated and Colt McCoy throws for 3,500 yards and 30-plus touchdowns while keeping his interceptions to a reasonable level.

However, I think he can do it if Florida is the only undefeated team and Tebow is seen as the guy who willed them to the BCS title game.

The game versus LSU on Oct. 10 will be the first piece of the puzzle.  I think that, right now, the burden of proof is on Tebow to show that he deserves that second Heisman for reasons other than the statistical brilliance that won him his first trophy.

Archie Griffin scored four touchdowns in 1975 and repeated as Heisman winner, so maybe it’s not out of the question.

Critics of the spread offense often cite quarterback safety as an important reason to stick to pro-style offenses, but I think it is worthy to note that Tim Tebow didn’t get hurt running the option, but while dropping back in the pocket.

From Pat Forde at ESPN.com:

“The Fighting Irish have played three straight games that were tighter than Terrence Cody in a Mini Cooper.”

You have to wonder if ‘Dr. Saturday’ is even watching the games, as he makes the case here that USC’s current offensive problems are basically about turnovers and penalties.

No mention that the numbers put up so far have been against the weakest part of the Trojan schedule.  USC is averaging 19.3 ppg the last three games and if you take away that last drive against Ohio State in the final minutes, it falls to 16.6 for a unit that returned nine starters from 2008 (also, two of USC’s scores against WSU came off of an onside kick and a turnover inside the Cougar 30).  The Trojans are one of the worst teams in the country at third down conversions.  But why get into that?  Much easier to slap some selective numbers together to ‘prove’ that the latest edition of the USC offense compares to recent ones.

On most front (sic), they’re extremely competitive, actually. The numbers that really stand out are the per-play margins: Through four games, this relatively maligned group is outgaining by more yards per play and more yards per carry — it’s not even close on yards per carry — than any of Carroll’s previous five teams, and outgaining them per pass by more than all but last year’s dominant outfit. The gaping yards-per-carry margin makes very clear just how physically dominant the ’09 team has been in the trenches.

Calling last year’s USC offense a dominant outfit is an interesting claim when you consider that it failed to score more than 21 points three times on the year and couldn’t pass 30 five times (and most of the healthy margins cited are due to the dominance of the defense, which really held back the yardage output of opponents). 

When you take away the 125 points the Trojans scored against Washington and Washington State–two of the worst teams in college football–USC averaged a pedestrian 33 points per game in 2008 despite fielding one of the most talented offenses in college football, led by a top five NFL pick at quarterback.

I’m not sure how anyone with a brain can watch the current USC offense and conclude that the problem is merely due to turnovers and penalties.