…has finally been redesigned and updated after years of neglect.
The new site is quite handsome looking, though I would change the tagline from ‘The Most Prestigious Award in College Football’ to ‘The Most Prestigious Award in Sports.’
It’s true. Most people who follow sports can name the Heisman Trophy winner, but can’t name the NFL, MLB or NHL MVP winners.
This Week’s Poll Results, 9/29
(first-place votes in parantheses)
1. Tim Tebow, QB, Florida–57 (8)
2. Colt McCoy, QB, Texas–55 (5)
3. Case Keenum, QB, Houston–37
4. Tony Pike, QB, Cincinnati–20
5. Jahvid Best, RB, California–11
6. Eric Berry, DB, Tennessee–4
7. Greg McElroy, QB, Alabama–2
Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State–2
Eric Decker, WR, Minnesota–2
Ryan Williams, RB, Va. Tech–2
11. Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame–1
Jacory Harris, QB, Miami–1
A.J. Green, WR, Georgia–1
About the Poll
The HeismanPundit.com Heisman Poll is made up of 13 Heisman voters from across the country. They vote for five players each week. Tabulations are made on a 5-4-3-2-1 basis, with five points awarded for a first-place vote, four points for a second-place vote and so on. Last year’s final Heismanpundit poll was the most accurate in the country, picking five of the top six finishers in the Heisman vote, including the winner.
Members of the panel include: Mike Bianchi of the Orlando Sentinel, Teddy Greenstein and Brian Hamilton of the Chicago Tribune, Olin Buchanan and Tom Dienhart of Rivals.com, Jenni Carlson of The Oklahoman, Bruce Feldman of ESPN.com, J.B. Morris of ESPN the Magazine, Austin Murphy, B.J. Schecter and Stewart Mandel of Sports Illustrated, plus Dick Weiss of the New York Daily News.
Chris Huston, owner of Heismanpundit.com, coordinates and also votes in the weekly poll.
HP’s Thoughts
With Jahvid Best and Jacory Harris absorbing major hits to their candidacies and Tim Tebow suffering a concussion, the race looks quite different than it did a week ago. Though Tebow still leads, Colt McCoy has surged back into a virtual tie with the Gator quarterback, while Houston’s Case Keenum has, for the first time, placed himself within striking distance of the top spot. The long view of the race still favors McCoy, though Tebow is benefitting from a short-term rallying effect due to his injury. A possible dramatic return versus LSU on Oct. 10 might decide Tebow’s Heisman fate.
From a Voter
“This Heisman race is much more wide open than I thought it would be. There are a lot of interchangeable parts, but I still voted Tim Tebow No. 1 because he played hurt — with a respiratory illness– and contributed one touchdown pass and two rushing touchdowns in less than three quarters as Florida cruised to an SEC road victory over Kentucky. The next two spots on my ballot are Colt McCoy of Texas, then Case Keenum of Houston– who has led his unbeaten, non-BCS team to a pair of wins over Big 12 schools.”– Dick Weiss, New York Daily News.
Heisman Game of the Week
No. 7 USC at No. 24 California. Last week, Best was sitting pretty in the Heisman race after moving into second in the Heismanpundit.com poll for the first time. This week, he’s just trying to survive after being a non-factor in Cal’s 42-3 loss to Oregon. The calculus for Best against USC is simple: If he does well and the Bears beat the Trojans, he’ll jump back into contention. If not, he’s finished as a Heisman candidate and we’ll go another year without a running back winner.
Player to Watch
Tony Pike, QB, Cincinnati. Pike is starting to get some attention as he has led the Bearcats into the top 10 while completing 71 percent of his passes for 1,223 yards and 11 touchdowns in his first four games. He doesn’t have the kind of marquee schedule that lends itself to a serious Heisman run but, if Cincinnati remains unbeaten, he has a chance to get some solid backing as the main candidate from the Midwest region.
This Week in Heisman History
Michigan coach Bump Elliot called Navy quarterback Roger Staubach the “greatest quarterback I’ve ever seen” after watching him gain 307 yards running and passing (including two TDs in the air and one on the ground) in a 26-13 win over the Wolverines in 1963. The total broke “Roger the Dodger’s” own Midshipmen record set the week before against William & Mary. Staubach won the 1963 Heisman as a junior and was the last of five service academy athletes to take home the trophy.
Week 4 of the HP Fantasy Challenge is in the books and, once again, team Anderson is in the lead. I encourage those of you who are well back in the race to stick with it as sometimes participants surge toward the end as they get to the more productive players on the roster. Also, keep in mind that a full three players–Sam Bradford, Kendall Hunter and Dez Bryant–missed games due to injury this week and will likely be back at some point in the season.
The HP Fantasy Challenge Leader Board, Week 4
Anderson–122
Herschel for Heisman–119
Redman–104
Brother Uriti–102
Gator Glory–93
Taco Shop–93
Pryor Domination–92
RotagFU–88
Carbon Crush–87
Adam Nettina’s Awesome Team–86
Just another crazy weekend of college football…
—Obviously everyone is worried about Florida quarterback Tim Tebow after taking that vicious hit against Kentucky. It’s ironic that this hit came when he was standing in the pocket since he is such a fearless runner and seemingly more likely to get hurt that way. (ESPN’s Chris Low speculates on life without Tebow). As one comment on this blog pointed out, will the legend of Tebow grow even larger if he comes back from this concussion and leads Florida to a win over LSU? Could very well happen.
—What a tragedy to hear the news of the loss of Baylor quarterback Robert Griffen for the season due to an ACL injury. It was a real treat watching him progress and now the Bears will probably be a mess for a while without him. Tough break for a program on the rise.
—Speaking of bad accidents, just heard that USC tailback Stafon Johnson dropped a barbell on his throat during a weightlifting session. He was rushed to the ER for surgery. Will keep everyone posted as I hear news.
—One week after beating USC, Washington (naturally) gets blown out by Stanford. I wonder if Jim Harbaugh thinks Jake Locker is the best quarterback he’s ever gone up against…
—Sure, the loss to Virginia Tech was disappointing for Miami, but I’m not giving up on the Hurricanes yet. A pounding rain, plus a blocked punt, some turnovers and uncharacteristic dropped passes made this game look worse than it actually was. Give Tech all the credit in the world–the Hokies looked tough–but I still think Miami is better on a neutral field.
—I feel really comfortable with writing that Alabama is the nation’s best team right now. The Tide’s shutdown of a very good Arkansas offense was impressive to say the least. And it looks to me like Bama has enough playmakers on offense to score with some teams, thanks to Greg McElroy’s development (btw, I wrote on this blog over the summer that McElroy would be a significant upgrade over John Parker Wilson). Look out for Trent Richardson, who is on his way to stardom. I think this team can beat Florida if it gets to the SEC title game.
—It seems pretty clear to me that the SEC and Pac-10 are the nation’s two best conferences by a mile. The SEC has Alabama, Florida as its national title contenders, with LSU, Auburn, Georgia and Ole Miss as pretty solid teams and up-and-comers Arkansas and South Carolina being fairly decent depending on the day. Even Mississippi State looks to be a bit better, though Tennessee, Kentucky and Vandy appear to be this year’s doormats. Meanwhile, the Pac-10 doesn’t look to have a real national title contender (yet), but USC is still an elite team, while Oregon, Cal, Stanford and UCLA look to be headed toward solid-to-very-good seasons. Meanwhile, ASU looked good on the road against Georgia, Washington is much improved and you can never count out Oregon State after a slow start. The only real doormat is Washington State and even the Cougars are much better than they were last season.
—LSU’s Chad Jones might’ve had three of the best highlights I’ve seen by a safety in quite a while. First an amazing punt return, then a timely tipped pass in the end zone and finally a stuff on 4th down on a goal line sneak. He’s probably the best safety in the country not named Berry or Mays.
—Maybe everyone was a bit hasty to condemn Oregon after its opening-game debacle against Boise State. After all, the Broncos are a pretty good team and the Ducks only lost 19-8. Since then, has any other team been as impressive against a better schedule?
—All looks lost for Cal, but maybe there’s no better time to get a chance to play a vulnerable USC squad than right now. The Trojans looked sloppy (again) in a lackluster home win over Washington State. It’s not like USC is going to unveil a dynamic offense like Oregon runs. The Trojans will play it close to the vest and try to grind it out, so the Bears have a good shot at staying in it and maybe winning this provided Kevin Riley doesn’t go in the tank (again).
—Fresno State’s slogan should be ‘lose anywhere against anyone at anytime’.
—The legend of Tate Forcier is growing after another comeback win. This time, it was Indiana, but it was no less thrilling. The Wolverines have some major issues on defense, though, and one gets the feeling that Forcier only has so much left in his bag of tricks. However, if Michigan somehow gets by Michigan State and Iowa, this team might actually run the table.
—As for Indiana, my heart goes out to the Hoosier fan at the sports bar where I was watching the games. He lived and died every moment of that thriller. Must be tough being an Indiana football fan.
—Stanford, my surprise team in the Pac-10, would be 4-0 if not for a couple bad calls in a close loss at Wake Forest. Everyone talks about Oregon and Cal as possibly dethroning USC for the Pac-10 title, but I like the Cardinal to mount the most serious challenge.
—There are always complaints about the rankings, but outside of the top three of Alabama, Texas and Florida, is there really much evidence to properly grade the teams? Right now, it looks like there just aren’t many good teams out there. A lot of teams could make the case to be ranked between #4 and #10.
—While rankings are tough, here are some teams I’d like to lump together: USC, LSU, Ohio State, Georgia, Florida State. These are all teams that really have a hard time playing to their talent levels. You have to wonder how long some of these coaches can keep it up without changing their ways.
—My prediction for the Auburn quarterback position looks to be on track, thanks to Gus Malzahn. Chris Todd’s stats after four games: 1,012 passing yards, 11 TDs, 1 int, 171 efficiency rating.
—Game I’m interested in this week: Texas A&M vs. Arkansas at Arlington. I want to see if Aggie QB Jerrod Johnson is for real. He’s off to a good start so far–961 yards in three games, 9 TDs, and zero picks. But the competition hasn’t exactly been stellar.
—Amazing that Colt McCoy can be at an outstanding 71 percent completion percentage and still be underachieving compared to his percentage last season (an NCAA-record 77 percent).
Here is my weekly breakdown of the players with the best chance of actually winning the Heisman.
1. Colt McCoy, Texas–McCoy is one of only two Heisman candidates to emerge unscathed from this past weekend. He threw for 286 yards and 3 TDs (with one pick) on 28 of 35 passing against UTEP. On the year, he has 1,145 passing yards, 9 TDs and 5 INTs, to go with 61 rushing yards and 1 TD. He is on pace to have 3,721 passing yards, 36 touchdowns and 15 interceptions by the time of the Heisman vote. He will need to cut back on his picks for these numbers to be considered Heisman-worthy, but I think if he keeps it to 12 or below (a 3-1 ratio) he’ll be fine. He is the overwhelming favorite for the Heisman right now.
2. Jacory Harris, Miami–Why does Jacory Harris move up after a bad loss to Virginia Tech? Well, just look at the schedule. The ‘Canes host Oklahoma next week and then will not play a ranked team in their final eight games. Miami has a real chance to run the table following the game vs. the Sooners, so we are looking at a Miami team that is likely to finish no worse than 10-2, with a decent shot at 11-1 if it beats Oklahoma. Voters will look kindly upon a young quarterback who led a formerly elite program back into the top five of the polls and may forgive his struggles in the pouring rain on the road at Lane Stadium. The wildcard in all of this is how Miami ends up in conference play and whether it gets a BCS bid of some sort. Harris was 9 of 20 for 150 yards and no touchdowns against Va. Tech. On the year, he has 806 passing yards with 5 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. He is on pace to have 3,224 passing yards, 20 touchdowns and 12 interceptions by the time of the Heisman vote. However, I expect him to pick up the pace on these numbers in the final eight games of the season and finish with a much better stat sheet.
3. Jahvid Best, Cal–Best ran for just 55 yards on 16 carries and was not a factor in Cal’s blowout loss to Oregon. I’m not ready to count Best out just yet, though, as he has a shot to bounce back with a nice game in a win next week over USC. As always, USC is the team that Best must do well against to have a shot. If Cal loses against USC next week, Best’s Heisman chances are done. One problem is that Best clearly is not 100 percent right now due to soreness in his surgically-repaired foot. So he is lacking some of the other-worldly explosiveness to which we have become accustomed. On the year, Best has 467 rushing yards and 8 touchdowns, along with 9 catches and one more TD. He is on pace to have 1,401 yards and 27 total touchdowns by the time of the Heisman vote.
4. Tim Tebow, Florida–Almost everything has to go right to win the Heisman once. To win it again, things must be near-perfect. Tebow’s chances at another Heisman are fading and are now entirely dependent upon the collapse of the rest of the field (as well as his health). He threw for 103 yards on 5 of 10 passing with a TD against Kentucky and added another 123 yards and 2 TDs on the ground before being knocked out with a concussion in the third quarter. In the short term, there will be a rallying effect around Tebow among voters, as they rightly appreciate his toughness. The question now, though, is how much time will he miss, if any? His stats are already down even further than last season and any missed games will further depress his numbers. On the year, he has 643 passing yards with 6 TDs and 1 interception, along with 271 rushing yards and 5 TDs. Assuming Florida makes the SEC title game, he is on pace for just 2,089 passing yards, with 20 TD passes and 3 interceptions, to go with 880 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns. Those are impressive to a point, but are they enough to warrant a second Heisman? I’m not so sure.
5. Case Keenum, Houston–There will soon come a point where voters will have to take a serious look at Case Keenum. So far, he has led the Cougars to wins over Oklahoma State and Texas Tech, which gives him some credibility against legitimate competition. Houston is now a top 10 team and has a real chance of running the table. If that happens, how could you not consider Keenum for the trophy, especially if the rest of the field is lackluster? He led the Cougars to a come-from-behind win over Texas Tech, throwing for 435 yards and 1 touchdown (with 1 pick) while adding 27 rushing yards and another score. On the year, he has 1,160 yards passing with 8 touchdowns and 2 interceptions and has 3 more rushing touchdowns as well. He is on pace to have 5,026 passing yards, 35 touchdowns and 9 interceptions by the time of the Heisman vote. I wouldn’t be shocked if he improves upon the TD numbers when all is said and done. This is not Andre Ware leading a probation-riddled team to 9-2, this is a guy who has beaten some pretty good teams while pushing his squad to a possible undefeated season and BCS berth. Something to think about.
6. Jimmy Clausen, Notre Dame–Part of figuring out who can win the Heisman is projecting how the season could possibly play out (within reason). Given how things shape up, I think Clausen actually has a shot to make a late-season run. He has led the Irish to gritty comebacks in each of the last three games (though in one of them ND ended up losing in the end) and there seems to be a bit of magic surrounding him this year. On the season, he has 1,122 passing yards, 10 touchdowns and just 1 interception. He is on pace to throw for 3,386 yards, 30 TDs and 3 picks. If Clausen has those kinds of numbers and leads Notre Dame to a win over USC and the Irish go on to finish 11-1, how do you ignore him in the Heisman race? If other candidacies mess up along the way, I think he’ll end up as a viable alternative as he’ll be seen as someone who has revived the Irish program. But, there is a long way to go and this scenario has to play out just right. So he remains a long shot.
The race for the 2009 Heisman took an unpredictable turn on Saturday.
The injury to Tim Tebow could jumble the race in a variety of ways.
Obviously, it will depend on how much game time Tebow misses, if any.
Should Tebow’s season be significantly curtailed, you can pretty much count him out of the Heisman race. The injuries that have struck Tebow and 2008 winner Sam Bradford illustrate why I’ve always felt that winning two Heismans is a practical impossibility in the current college football environment.
The collapse of support for Tebow as a result of his injury will significantly affect the other candidates. The most obvious effect in the short term is that the pool of Heisman-worthy players will shrink and voters will gravitate toward the safest choice, which at this point is Colt McCoy.
However, if McCoy struggles statistically–he already has five interceptions on the season–then the result will be that the threshhold for 2009 Heisman-worthiness will to be dumbed down a bit, which will have the effect of helping some of the ‘lesser’ candidates in the long run.
As crazy as it sounds, the Heisman candidacies of Jahvid Best and Jacory Harris are not dead yet, though they did take a hit on Saturday. However, the possible statistical declines (in a relative sense) of the three top names in college football (Tebow, McCoy, Bradford) means that challengers like Best and Harris (and others) may not need to produce amazing individual seasons or play for undefeated teams in order to overcome the advantages these three players possessed.
Because of the dearth of overwhelming statistical impressiveness, voters may look for other factors in addition to reasonably healthy production, such as:
—Whether a player is the catalyst for a program’s revival, preferably a traditional Heisman power
—Whether he carried his team at crucial junctures
—Whether he got his team over a perceived hump
—Whether he helped his team get to a conference title and/or a BCS bowl
—Whether his team gets on a ‘roll’ to close the season and is considered a top team regardless of overall record.
Of course, if McCoy finishes out the season strong and keeps his interceptions below a reasonable point, then he will win the Heisman handily. Our preseason frontrunner will merely have done what he was supposed to do and the vote will not be close. Also, it could well be that Tebow does not miss enough significant time to substantially affect the race (I think he could miss one game and his candidacy will survive, but not two).
However, if McCoy does not get it done, then the door opens up for Best, Harris, Case Keenum or others (Greg McElroy? Jimmy Clausen?) to make a serious run under the aforementioned scenario.
This is the context in which I think the race needs to be analyzed. I’ll have more thoughts on this as more information comes to light.
In the meantime, I think Heisman sentiment is extremely fluid and will remain so until the outcome of the October schedule.
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