HP’s Top 10 Teams

By on October 25, 2009 in The HP Top 10 Teams

1. Alabama

2. Texas

3. USC

4. Florida

5. TCU

6. Oregon

7. Cincinnati

8. Iowa

9. Boise State

10. LSU

On the cusp: Penn State, Georgia Tech, Oklahoma State, Miami, Pittsburgh

About Heismanpundit

Chris Huston, A.K.A. ‘The Heisman Pundit‘, is a Heisman voter and the creator and publisher of Heismanpundit.com, a site dedicated to analysis of the Heisman Trophy and college football. Dubbed “the foremost authority on the Heisman” by Sports Illustrated, HP is regularly quoted or cited during football season in newspapers across the country. He is also a regular contributor on sports talk radio and television.
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35 Responses to HP’s Top 10 Teams

  1. Jams October 25, 2009 at 2:27 pm #

    Okay, this is getting out of hand. At least give us a sentence of explanation if you’re going to go that far out on a limb. I mean, even if you just say something like “in order of who I think would win right now on the field.”

    I mean come on, USC? You could at least try to be less transparent about your former employer, HP.

    Reply
  2. Tim October 25, 2009 at 3:09 pm #

    I guess next week your top 5 will read : Oregon, USC, Alabama, Texas, Florida – your Pac-10 bias is apparent.

    Reply
  3. gamedaytribe October 25, 2009 at 3:12 pm #

    USC (6-1) and OREGON (6-1), A COMPARISON

    Objective comparison using common opponents:

    The common opponents (all PAC 10 conf play):
    ==============================================
    USC beat Washington State 27-6
    ORE beat Washington State 52-6

    USC beat Cal 30-3
    ORE beat Cal 42-3

    USC lost to Washington 13-19
    ORE beat Washington 43-19

    So USC defense = ORE defense (identical).
    ORE offense better than USC by ave margin of 22 points.

    Intangibles
    =============
    USC’s one loss to unranked Washington (0-5 in PAC 10)
    ORE’s one loss to unbeaten #4 Boise State

    USC’s non-conf wins:
    - Ohio State on the road
    - Notre Dame on the road
    ORE’s non-conf wins:
    - Purdue (who beat Ohio State),
    - Utah (longest unbeaten streak in nation then)

    When USC’s star quarterback was out, they lost (Washington)
    When ORE’s star quarterback was out, they won 24-10 (UCLA)

    With 7 games played out of 12, there is little room left to vote on “potential” – they’ve had enough time and games to exercise their ability and demonstrate their potential.

    If previous history and personal preferences aren’t influencing voting, I don’t know what is – it certainly isn’t results on the field.

    Ducks USC
    ==========================================================
    AP – 10 4 Press
    USA – 12 4 Coaches
    BCS – 11 7 USA + Harris + computers
    Sagarin – 3 5 computers
    Massey – 7 8 computers
    JHOWELL – 9 8 computers
    Covers – 5 10 power poll
    CNNSI – 10 5 power poll
    Heisman Pundit – 6 3

    Scratches head. Stops reading polls and rankings in
    disgust. Waits for Halloween Saturday.

    Reply
  4. JP October 25, 2009 at 3:26 pm #

    Oregon’s loss was so lopsided that they’re continuing to pay for it and will for some time.

    Reply
  5. slippy October 25, 2009 at 4:20 pm #

    You do realize that Oregon and USC will play each other right? Where they’re ranked now doesn’t matter – at least not in HP’s mind. If Oregon wins out it will matter because voters hate jumping teams, and Oregon will end up stuck somewhere around 5th, when if they had started ranked in the top five would end up around 2 or 3.

    Before these past 2 weeks I thought Alabama should be #1. When your QB doesn’t throw a TD for 2 straight weeks and you need 2 blocked FGs to win a game against an unranked team at home, you don’t deserve to be #1. This is the perfect year for a playoff…every team has weaknesses.

    Reply
  6. jeremy October 25, 2009 at 4:41 pm #

    I’m eagerly anticipating the SEC is soooo tough barbs – seems like we’re going back to a few years ago when SEC teams were lauded for their great defenses but in reality its just a bunch of crappy offenses.

    the fact of the matter is – no teams looks like a true #1, and no individual player looks like a worthy candidate for the heisman

    Reply
  7. CloroxingTheGenePool October 25, 2009 at 5:17 pm #

    The loser of the Oregon-Southern Cal game should drop out of the top 10…for the rest of the season.

    Reply
  8. HP October 25, 2009 at 5:25 pm #

    Jams, I have USC third and the polls have them fourth.

    I had Alabama No. 1 before any of the polls got to that point.

    Now what, exactly, is out of hand?

    Reply
  9. Ed Newman October 25, 2009 at 5:49 pm #

    I’m beginning to think Cinci is as good as anyone.

    Reply
  10. Anonymous October 25, 2009 at 5:53 pm #

    Bama and USC barely escape alive, but Florida is behind them both. LOL

    Reply
  11. JMB October 25, 2009 at 6:08 pm #

    USC hasn’t done anything on the field to make them worthy of being ranked over a bunch of undefeated teams, and well ahead of the others with one loss. They are getting overrated based on Rivals.com recruiting rankings, parade all-Americans, preseason polls, and this mythical belief that regardless of what their record and results show, “they should beat any team in the country”.

    Reply
  12. Texas Fan October 25, 2009 at 6:36 pm #

    Texas has a D as good if not better than Florida and Alabama as well as an offense that is light years better than both. How many more of these “gritty” close SEC games do we have to go through before everyone realizes that Florida and Alabama are very much beatable, and Texas is the team that will do it?

    Reply
  13. CloroxingTheGenePool October 25, 2009 at 6:36 pm #

    JMB,

    And that hype is done because perception is everything, and might give the Trojans the slight edge that gains them a given bowl berth over another school. Have to applaud Southern Cal’s efforts in that, like FOX News’. I just hope the voters keep in mind that Pete Caroll’s USC Trojans have never faced off against Alabama, Georgia, Florida, or LSU, i.e., the SEC’s best, since he has been coaching in South Central Los Angeles. And thus decide to provide the fans the match-up that everyone wants to see in the bowls this year and beyond: The Smash-faced but sunny Surfer Boy vs the SEC’s Best. All of that smugness upon Pete’s part and USC fans will dissipate quite quickly, I imagine.

    Reply
  14. A-Train October 25, 2009 at 6:40 pm #

    wow i watched boise play against tulsa in person and they in noway deserve to be in the top ten tulsa played horrible and still had a chance to win at the end

    Reply
  15. gamedaytribe October 25, 2009 at 7:20 pm #

    JP,

    Oregon played badly in its first game. Yes. It was unprepared, but has exponentially improved in every facet and is playing like a national champion right now. The team that lost to Boise is not the same team that’s playing right now. If we were to play ANY team in college football right now, my money would be on Oregon.

    That’s my point.

    USC? Did you see their game against Washington? They aren’t paying for it AT ALL in the polls. Florida? Alabama? Yes, they may be winning, but just barely. No offense to speak of. Barely beating teams far worse than Boise.

    The East Coast folks and all the national commentators may get highlights, but certainly don’t watch any Oregon games. Neither do the coaches.

    And sadly, the coaches poll counts for one third of the freaking BCS. One dysfunctional third…….

    Reply
  16. gamedaytribe October 25, 2009 at 7:24 pm #

    Slippy – yes, and very thankful for it (USC and OR play each other). And agree on your other comments.

    Cloroxing the Gene Pool – dude, SEC neanderthal homerism is just so last year….

    Reply
  17. Andy October 25, 2009 at 7:58 pm #

    How on earth does USC deserve to be ranked 3rd after being outgained by Oregon State in Los Angeles? Where’s USC’s vaunted defense…the same place it was against Notre Dame (who barely beat Boston College today). There is no doubt that USC receives more benefit from hype than any program in college football, save possibly THE Ohio State University. HP, I think your criterion was “the current state of the team” or something like that (translation = PAC 10 teams deserve to be ranked above others). If it really is “current state of the team” or “who’s playing best right now”, what about 1 loss Georgia Tech (victory over VA Tech and a good UVA team last two weeks) or Penn State who put the beat down on Michigan or LSU who thumped Auburn or heaven forbid, undefeated Florida who beat MSU in Miss for first time in 20+ years or even undefeated Iowa. OBVIOUSLY, USC is better than these teams for beating Oregon State at home while being outgained on offense. What about Oregon? Even they should be ranked ahead of USC based on your criterion.

    Maybe you should rename this the PAC 10 Pundit!

    Reply
  18. Andy October 25, 2009 at 8:02 pm #

    By the way, Oregon is 2 and 1 out of conference with 2 narrow victories over two mediocre teams (Utah needed OT to be Air Force this weekend!) and in the PAC 10 they are killing teams. What does that say about the PAC 10?

    Reply
  19. tom October 25, 2009 at 10:41 pm #

    USC Has a loss to a very bad unranked team.
    How can you put them above Florida? Yes, Florida’s passing offense is not amazing this year due to a lack of quality wide receivers. However, Florida has one of the best rushing offenses in FBS, and also the number one overall defense in the country!

    Reply
  20. Chris October 25, 2009 at 11:18 pm #

    Dear gamedaytribe:

    I like your style: long on facts and short on shit. However, you have commited the fallacy most common to football arguments: Ingoring pertinant facts.

    I’m not sure what the exact point of your first entry is, (because you never explicitly state it) but I think you disagree with the ranking of USC over Oregon and you think that others are ignoring facts.

    Here’s some facts that you did not recognize in your post:

    1) USC lost against Washington coaches that not only knew their playbook (and wrote some of it), but Sark and Holt, knew each USC player, their strengths and weaknesses. Huge advantage Washington.

    2) USC- new offensive coordinator, freshman QB. Oregon- Chip’s been working with players/playbook for several years. Masoli is light years ahead of Barkely in game experience.

    3) Despite the inexperience, HUGE road wins by USC in tough, hostile environments: OSU, Cal, ND. And they never really took OSU/ND’s crowd out of the game and STILL won. Perhaps this diminished Oregon’s homefield advantage?

    4) Track record (including this season) shows that USC peaks when it counts. (Save UCLA 06)

    Not that I disagree that perhaps USC may be currently over rated in the polls. Based on performance, they probably are.

    But my point is that you have ingored some major factors. Let’s talk next Saturday night

    Chris
    Reno, NV

    Reply
  21. HP October 25, 2009 at 11:39 pm #

    Let me get this straight.

    You guys are complaining because I have USC at No. 3 when the rest of the polls have them at No. 4? This shows a Pac-10 bias?

    My poll is supposed to be a gauge of who the best teams in the country are RIGHT NOW. I have Florida fourth because I think that RIGHT NOW they would beat every team but three.

    It’s not just who is playing best now, it’s a combination of who is playing best and who has the personnel to beat as many teams as possible.

    As for USC, it beat an Oregon State team that is itself playing very well right now. I find this to be more impressive than a rather lackluster win over MSU.

    I’m not sure why there is so much hate for the Pac-10. I have two Pac-10 teams in my top 10, just like the AP and BCS polls. I guess all the polls are just so crazy, huh?

    Reply
  22. Johnny October 26, 2009 at 7:28 am #

    I agree with the commenters. USC ahead of Florida is perplexing. Nothing in USC’s record shows them to be worthy of a top 5 ranking. News flash: road wins over ND and Ohio St not THAT impressive. And a loss to Washington? If their loss was to a top 10 team, you might have something there.

    I’m 100% convinced Oregon is going to beat USC.

    Reply
  23. CloroxingTheGenePool October 26, 2009 at 10:46 am #

    HP,

    Before I get back to busting your balls about whatever, I just wanted to say I appreciate all of the hard work you put in on this site, providing a place for us to have a fun distraction for awhile.

    Reply
  24. Socraticsilence October 26, 2009 at 12:04 pm #

    “Texas has a D as good if not better than Florida and Alabama as well as an offense that is light years better than both. How many more of these “gritty” close SEC games do we have to go through before everyone realizes that Florida and Alabama are very much beatable, and Texas is the team that will do it?”

    You really want to know why no one takes Texas’s offense seriously- its simple their a Big 12 offense and frankly everyone outside of the Southwest views the conferences offenses as fraudulent primarily because of what happened last year.

    Reply
  25. Max October 26, 2009 at 12:20 pm #

    Well, if USC is ahead of Florida in HP’s poll, then he clearly believes that USC would beat Florida at a neutral site.

    As a USC fan, I’m not sure I agree with that. But while I do think USC gets some poll love that they sometimes shouldn’t, there is also some justification to it: the Trojans are 31-1 in non-conference games since 2002. And that is against arguably the toughest non-conference schedule in the country over that time period (no I-AA teams, plenty of ranked, BCS conference squads, including a few wins over ranked SEC teams). Additionally, USC has not lost by more than 7 points since 2001.

    So, taking the logic one step further…I think voters know that if USC plays a bowl game against these top teams (Florida, Alabama, Texas, etc.), the game will be ultra-competitive. Hell, Vince Young played one of the best games ever by a college QB, racked up 500 yards of offense by himself…and Texas won by only 3 in the closing seconds. That’s USC’s only non-conference loss since 2002.

    In short, USC’s problems aren’t whether they’re better than Florida or Texas. It’s whether they can avoid losing to an inferior conference foe. lol

    Reply
  26. Max October 26, 2009 at 12:22 pm #

    By the way, I also think that Oregon is going to beat USC this weekend. The Trojan defense was sliced up by an Oregon State offense that is good but not great. The Ducks are much better, and the game is in Eugene.

    So the poll conversations above should be moot by the end of the weekend. A two loss Trojan squad is at best an at-large BCS team and probably a Holiday Bowl squad. Definitely a rebuilding year for the Men of Troy.

    Reply
  27. Ethan October 26, 2009 at 3:11 pm #

    You’re assuming that the Trojans are going to lose. I have to bust your bubble but the Trojans play very good with playing ranked teams. We have seen this over & over again. Now you can compare oregon states team to Oregon because even though they are both in oregon they each have a different system. I think USC will rise to the challenge & come out with a victory on Sat. After all they have won at Ohio St. Cal & notre damned. if history has taught us anything is the Trojans are a very good football team & will once again show why they are rank where they are.

    Reply
  28. Neil October 26, 2009 at 3:23 pm #

    HP,

    I can get behind most of this top ten. I’ll echo what I think appears to be a relatively prevalent sentiment, however. USC should not be ranked ahead of Florida. In fact, they should not be ranked ahead of LSU (Common opponent is pretty fair when you play in the same building). They have one quality win (on the road @ Ohio State), and beat a very average Oregon State team in a shootout.

    Florida is still undefeated. The notion that any voter could put an unbeaten team from the SEC behind a once-beaten team from a Pac 10 that is a bit down this season is mind boggling. I wonder exactly what you do with Oregon if they beat SC ? Do they jump an 8-0 Florida, if the Gators win ugly against Georgia ? Or do they stay behind? Hoping for consistency and an answer.

    Enjoyed you on Tony Barnhart last week.

    Reply
  29. Johnny October 26, 2009 at 3:45 pm #

    My disagreement mainly stems from basing rankings on who you THINK would win on a neutral field vs. basing it on real world results. Having Boise 3 spots behind Oregon (I thought Boise won that game?) and USC over UF seems to be a stretch IMHO. I live in CA and have seen a lot of USC football this year, and they really haven’t good enough to merit a top 5 ranking, especially since there are solid undefeated teams behind them who haven’t lost to an unranked team like USC has.

    All this being said, who cares? This will probably all be sorted out over the next 6 weeks anyway.

    Reply
  30. Jams October 26, 2009 at 4:08 pm #

    I want to first echo CloroxingTheGenePool’s sentiment… I also want to make it known that I do appreciate all the effort that goes into this blog and all its parts. It really is an enjoyable distraction for me every day, and it’s the best, most thoughtful, and most well-reasoned site about the Heisman that I’ve come across. I appreciate the realism behind handicapping the race for who will win, and not who the writer thinks should win.

    Obviously everybody’s shocked and offended about USC seeming to bee too high, and I can understand that. But I can also understand the reasoning given in your comment, HP, explaining why you’ve ranked them in that order. What I thought was “out of hand” was that your weekly top ten is always posted without any kind of explanation. In this case, it really seemed that one was due. See what kind of comment feedback you got just from this bare bones top ten? Imagine how much conversation would be sparked if you just put even one sentence of explanation into each team. I’d have bit my tongue before commenting if I’d just read something like “the Trojans still have the Jimmies and Joes to hang with anyone.”

    Reply
  31. HP October 26, 2009 at 5:54 pm #

    This poll is my opinion, just like everyone else’s, on which teams are the best right now in college football. Theoretically, the No. 1 team would beat all the teams on a neutral field, and the 2nd place team would beat everyone but the 1st place team, and so on and on.

    It is not a poll that totally relies on a team’s record. I think that, right now, USC would beat FLorida on a neutral field DESPITE the fact that USC lost a game earlier in the season. Surely one can conceive that a team with as much talent as USC that is playing at a certain level could beat a team with as much talent as Florida which is also playing at a certain level. The disagreement arises over how well we think the team’s are actually playing. It is my belief with USC that its issues since 2005 have been on offense and for the first time since then I see an explosive Pac-10 offense beginning to build.

    Clorox, agree that i should’ve prefaced my rankings better, which is what I’ve done historically, but even I get lazy sometimes! On the other hand, an open ended ranking without comment does create more activity in my comments section!

    Thanks to everyone for the compliments and the participation. Keep it up as I read EVERY comment and am always up for a well-reasoned debate.

    Reply
  32. gamedaytribe October 27, 2009 at 6:43 pm #

    HP, thanks for the explanation.

    And like the others, I’ll also start with thanking you for the site and your always interesting content.

    And no, just to be VERY CLEAR, I don’t think you have a PAC 10 bias at all, I don’t think you have any regional bias (refreshingly so).

    I was simply confused by your criteria and the rationale for ranking USC so high.

    Soldier on!!

    Reply
  33. gamedaytribe October 27, 2009 at 6:48 pm #

    Chris,

    THanks, and yes, good pointsyes, I can’t wait for Saturday. Have my antacids stockpiled. It’s going to be fun :) .

    Reply
  34. Jtroche October 31, 2009 at 9:53 pm #

    Well I am glad you made such a wise choice putting USC over UF. They really looked better tonight getting destroyed by the one-dimensional oregon ducks.

    Reply
  35. Tim November 1, 2009 at 9:53 am #

    What an explosive offense and a great defensive showing by your USC Trjans. I’m pretty sure most of the top 10 teams would score 40+ on USC – OK, maybe not Iowa…

    Reply

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