The Heisman race is a mess, but one must soldier on. Eventually, someone must take control.
Here is my latest list of the players with the best chance of actually winning the Heisman Trophy. This is not a predicted order of finish.
1. Colt McCoy, Texas–Preseason favorite McCoy is back on top of this list after putting together a pretty good game against Missouri (26/31, 269 yards, 3 TD/1 int). Doesn’t sound like much of an accomplishment, does it? But in this particular Heisman race, it’s a big deal. I think that if McCoy leads the Longhorns past Oklahoma State, then it’s highly likely that Texas finishes the regular season undefeated. On his current pace, McCoy will have 3,354 passing yards and 26 TD passes (and 15 picks) by the time of the Heisman vote. This, combined with his status as the quarterback of an undefeated team, would make him an attractive option for many voters. Of course, there is a chance he heats up and increases his stats at a more productive pace, too. As long as he maintains at least a 2-to-1 ratio with his TD and INTs, I think his numbers will suffice when compared to the other candidates in the race.
2. Mark Ingram, Alabama–Ingram was steady against Tennessee, rushing for 99 yards on 18 carries while being held out of the end zone for the first time this season. He didn’t melt down under the pressure of being a new Heisman front runner, but he didn’t exactly take the bull by the horns, either. On the year, he has 1,004 yards and eight touchdowns, with an average of 6.56 yards per carry. He is on pace to have 1,631 yards and 13 touchdowns by the time of the Heisman vote. Ingram likely has two mega-showdowns left on his schedule: LSU in two weeks and maybe Florida in the SEC title game. Lead Bama to wins in both those games and he could take home the Heisman.
3. Jimmy Clausen, Notre Dame–Clausen continued his dream season, as he led yet another fourth-quarter comeback in Notre Dame’s 20-16 win over Boston College. He threw for 246 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions. He is on pace to have 3,514 passing yards with 27 touchdowns and just three picks by the time of the Heisman voter. There’s no doubt that Clausen should finish with the best numbers out of any of the main candidates. But the question with Clausen is how forgiving voters will be of Notre Dame’s schedule. Sure, the Irish might finish 10-2, but I think there is a healthy skepticism out there over how good they are.
4. Tim Tebow, Florida–Tebow still has a chance to win, but he must increase his production immediately. He had his worst passing game of the season against Mississippi State, throwing for 127 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions (both of which were returned for six). He did rush for 88 yards and a score, but this was not vintage Tebow by any means. He is on pace to have 2,152 passing yards, with 15 touchdowns and seven interceptions by the time of the Heisman vote (along with 865 yards and 11 touchdowns on the ground). This kind of production is not nearly enough to win the Heisman…in any year but this one!
If the vote were held today
1. Mark Ingram
2. Tim Tebow
3. Jimmy Clausen
4. Colt McCoy
5. Case Keenum
6. Ndamukong Suh
7. Eric Berry
8. Jacquizz Rodgers
9. Tony Pike
10. C.J. Spiller
I’m not buying this talk about ND’s strength of schedule. I wish someone would actually check the stats because it’s probably pretty comparable to everyone else’s.
ND isn’t a great team, which should make people realize how good Clausen has been. If he leads them to 10-2, he should have just as good a chance as anyone else.
According to Sagarin Strength of Schedules:
17 – Notre Dame
27 – Alabama
39 – Florida
52 – Texas
Must be an problem with the formula, right? It can’t be fact, right?
Griping about ND’s SOS is a lazy and disingenuous argument.
The strength of teams Notre Dame has beaten is not very good according to Sagarin:
Clausen beat #37, #38, #43, but lost to #5 and #46.
Ingram beat #9, #27, #28 and hasn’t lost
Tebow beat #12, #28, #31 and hasn’t lost
McCoy beat #22, #48, #60 and hasn’t lost
Playing Washington State and Navy over the next two weeks won’t help Clausen, but he still has put up impressive numbers and deserves to be on the Heisman short list.
Why must the trophy given to the best individual player be so tied to the success of the team?
There should obviously be some correlation, but let’s not go overboard.
If ND has a 10-2 record, I think voters should put Clausen on equal footing with Tebow, McCoy, and Ingram. Then, may this season’s best player win.
I actually don’t have a problem at all with Ingram’s resume. These stat lines bother me though…
QB1: has 8 TD, 4 INT, #15 QB Rating
QB2: has 14 TD, 8 INT, #31 QB Rating
QB3: has 16 TD, 2 INT, #2 QB Rating
Statistically, there’s no argument, even if you bring in QB1′s running stats.
I see where you’re coming from. But please keep in mind one thing. Yes clausen has big numbers but those numbers came from playing who? lesser inferior teams. The only 2 challenges that would have set clausen apart had he won would have been when notre damned played Michigan & USC. The truth of the matter is he lost both. Great elite QB’s rise to the challenge in situations like that. clausen didn’t, notre damned lost both. When notre damn actually plays a rank team & beats then convincingly & not last minute with a field goal then I will agree that clausen should be in the heissman talk. But for now that facts are these clausen has big number because he have played against unranked teams who were lesser & inferior. Anyone can have those kind of numbers against lesser teams, Another fact, When playing ranked teams clausen & notre damned lost to USC & Michigan. & what makes it that much interesting is that USC & Michigan both have redshirt freshman QB’s. clausen is over rated & people will see through all the hype. This coming from clausen who claimed that he would bring 4 National Championships to notre damned
@Ethan, you used every single lazy argument in available in your response and for that, you should be proud. “Notre Damned”? “Notre Lame”? Bring facts to the discussion, not bias.
So Notre Dame’s pass defense is bad. That’s not on Clausen.
So he didn’t complete a pass from the four-yard line against USC. Sure, that’s on him, but one completion shouldn’t be the deciding factor in his Heisman candidacy.
Clausen has put up good numbers against every team he’s played, bad and good. I disagree that “anyone can have those kind of numbers against lesser teams.” Tebow, for instance, struggled against Mississippi State.
Tebow’s SEC stats in 2009 so far…
59-93 (63.4%) 734 Yards 3TD – 4INT
I want Oregon’s reinstated Blount to be a finalist for the Heisman Trophy. After he loses, I can just imagine him going ape shit crazy again, scaling some skyscraper with ~His Girl~ in hand, etc. Now, THAT would be some excitement, wouldn’t it?
Tebow would pray him down from the skyscraper and then give him a circumcision. He leads the country in both categories (prayer and snip-snips)
Tebow has 1625 yards, 14 TDs in 7 games. I think Tebow deserves consideration despite his 4 interceptions, just like Clausen deserves consideration despite his two losses.
F- I realize you say it doesn’t matter but shouldn’t Tebow’s running stats matter- I mean from what I can tell they seem to be what keeps him in the race- heck he’s actually outrushed Ingram against all but 1 of their common opponents. As for Clausen if he’s a canidate why not Christian Ponder, he’s also on a team that’s not very good accounts for the vast majority of his teams offense (more than Clausen) and has lead multiple comebacks. I’m sorry but to win the Heisman on a team that loses every big game Clausen would have to have a year like Tebow in 2007 or Sanders in 1987- not just good but absolutely insane numbers.
@Socraticsilence – I’ve never discounted Tebow’s running statistics. I believe that even if you combine them with his passing stats, Clausen’s numbers are still better.
I do think that Ponder should be a candidate. I think there are a bunch of players that should be in the conversation. The problem is that before the season started, ESPN and the media decided that this year, the Heisman would be a three person race (Tebow/McCoy/Bradford) Tebow and McCoy’s seasons have been sub-par (less touchdowns, less yards, more Interceptions, more fumbles) and Bradford’s season never got a chance to begin.
Your biggest knock on Clausen has been that he doesn’t play defense. Fortunately for Tebow, Florida’s defense is one of the best in the country and they can bail him out when he needs them to)
I guess this is more of a knock on the media’s pre-anointance of Tebow/McCoy. I have no problem with either player and I think they are both incredibly talented. They are just not having the type of season that one should call Heisman caliber.
The QB from Boise State has 21 TDs to 2 INT and the best QB rating in the country. The Pitt QB has 16 TD’s and 4 INT and the 3rd best QB rating. Ponder has 12/1.
Tebow has 7 (8?) more games to play and maybe he’ll get back to his normal form but so far, you can’t say that his play has impressed you this year (like it usually does) and be honest with yourself. He nearly cost them the game this past weekend.
F My arguments are not lazy just because you disagree. When a football player is mentioned or considered he should not only have good numbers but have a defining game, clausen doesn’t. By your same argument about clausen then should USC’s Barkley be considered? after all he’s undefeated & have played & won at Cal. Ohio St & at notre damned? What is clausen’s defining or signature win against a good team? The answer is he doesn’t have one. He lost to both USC & Michigan. Like said both USC & Michigan teams both have redshirt freshman QB’s & Both QB’s had better numbers than clausen. When all is said & done people will look at all the facts & determined that clausen is undeserving. Keep on thing in mind this is an individual award for a players that surpasses everyone else & who has rises above the rest. There are other players who are more deserving than clausen. I am 100% sure when all the dust settles that clausen will not be walking away with the Heisman.
Any individual player that has an incredible season should be considered for the Heisman. If it’s not Clausen, I am ok with that. I’d prefer that it went to the person that earned it on the field this year. How can you argue that Tebow has had that type of season?
Which game this season has been Tebow’s defining game? The 5 TD game against Troy? The season opener at Charleston? Those are statistically, his best efforts.
Against Tennessee he had a 66.8 Rating with 0 TD/1 Int.
Against LSU he had an 89.1 rating with 1 TD/1 Int.
Against lowly Miss St, he had a 33.7 Rating with 0 TD/2 INTs for touchdowns.
Please let me know which game this season has “defined” him. I’m honestly interested to know. Against the only good teams on Florida’s schedule so far, Tebow hasn’t exactly done much.
Interesting that you would omit the Arkansas and Kentucky games both teams are better than MSU and yet somehow they aren’t used to compute rating.
Sorry for omitting Kentucky and Arkansas. I didn’t think they counted as “defining” games against marquee competitors…but since you asked for it…
Against Arkansas he had an 110.3 rating with 1 TD/0 Int. (although he fumbled it twice) Rushed 27 times for 69 yards (2.6 per carry)
Against Kentucky he had a rating of 120 with 1 TD and 0 Int. He also had 123 yards rushing on 16 carries (7.7 yards per carry)
In my opinion, the Kentucky game was Tebow’s most impressive. Is that the “signature” game we were talking about? Help me out here.
F -
I maintain that Clausen is among the front runners, but you go overboard with your criticisms of Tebow. Tebow certainly didn’t pass well against MSU (coached by his former mentor), but I disagree with you about the Arkansas game. Tebow had 1 fumble where a lineman missed a block. The other fumble you blame Tebow for was a bad snap that hit Brandon James. Not sure if Brandon was early or the snap was late, but that wasn’t Tebow’s fault.
You appear to be citing ESPN data for passer ratings. ESPN has a glitch where it reports pro passer ratings on certain screens. Tebow’s passer rating against Arkansas was actually 161… that’s about the same as Clausen for the year. And Tebow had a well thrown 64 yard TD pass that was dropped. That’s one of 6 dropped TDs on the year and it would have elevated Tebow’s passer rating to 198.
The story line for Tebow is overcoming illness, injury, a decimated receiver corps, a struggling offensive line and a new offensive coordinator. After the MSU game I’d say he’s 4th in the Heisman race.
@SandyMex: If I’m going overboard with my statistical criticisms of Tebow, you are going severely underboard. (is that a word?)
Playing the revisionist “if” game in regards to turnovers and dropped passes is a pretty simple excercise. Clausen has had no less than 7 or 8 dropped passes in the end zone and one of his INT’s hit his RB in the numbers and popped out.
Notre Dame can play the violin story line game for Clausen as well. Overcoming a lingering injury that keeps him from being mobile, a horrible offensive line, a decimated receiver corps, injuries to his starting RB…and to top it off, a HORRIBLE defense. Blah…blah…blah.
F -
When I said you were going overboard, I was referring to the series incorrect numbers you provided for Tebow. Is Clausen’s 377 more yards with 98 more pass attempts enough to ignore the fact that he keeps losing big games? That’s for voters to decide, but I think that both Clausen and Tebow deserve Heisman consideration.
Everyone likes to point out that Clausen didn’t beat USC or Michigan. Has anyone looked at his stats for those games?
Michigan
25/42
336 yards
3 TDs
USC
24/43
260
3 TDs (2 passing, 1 rushing)
Is it really his fault they lost those games? Sure he could have completed one more pass against USC (had Kamara not slipped), but he threw the first passing TD USC gave up all year, and he is the single reason they even had a chance to win at the end.
Same story with Michigan. They came back, completely on the back of Jimmy Clausen, only to have the D give up a last second touchdown.
I don’t see why he is being dinged for those games. The team would have had no chance without him, and he accounted for 6 TDs, 0 INTs in those two losses, both of which were decided in the last second.
If the Heisman is about Ws and Ls, fine, but it’s not like Clausen stunk up the joint in his team’s losses. He didn’t lose them either game, he was actually the only reason they almost won, or barely lost. Without him, they would have been destroyed.
Clausen drove ND down for what would have been game winning drive against Michigan. Defense blew it in last minute. Clausen drove ND down to the 3 against USC threw the perfect pass, but Kumara slipped. Threw no INTs in those games. How can you say he lost those games. There is an anti-Clausen bias here. BTW, great site.
Spiller deserves the Heisman by far over the rest of the candidates. I can’t believe you are so biased to the ESPN and media favorites. Disgusting!
According to Sagarin, Clausen’s strength of schedule is below Tebow’s. Clausen has 387 more yards, 1 more TD and two more losses against a weaker schedule. I still think they both deserve consideration.