Some are wondering why I have Florida fourth in my rankings.
The reason is that I don’t think the Gators look especially good right now on offense. Since Tim Tebow’s concussion, Florida’s offense has produced just 13, 23 and 22 points and Tebow’s pass efficiency rating in those games has been only 130, with just two TD passes and three picks. And it’s not like the competition has been that stiff: Florida has, so far, played only one ranked team (LSU).
So why am I not equally as tough on Alabama, despite its recent offensive struggles? The answer to that is that Alabama is not, and never has been, considered an offensive juggernaut under Nick Saban. With Saban, the Tide will always be centered around tough defense and a ball-control offense. So when Alabama struggles to score 12 points against a quality Tennessee defense, that shouldn’t really shock anyone.
But it should shock people to see an Urban Meyer team averaging only 24 points in SEC play when the last two years it averaged 43 and 38. That’s a significant plunge in output.
This is a worrisome thing for a program that prides itself on its offensive prowess. Meyer won a title in 2006 with a primarily defensive team, but the offense has been dominant since Tebow took over as the starter and the identity of the program has revolved around a high-scoring attack. Right now, it appears the Gators don’t have that.
So, what to make of them in the meantime? Well, I think that unless they right the ship on offense–and soon–winning that third title in four years isn’t going to happen.
But shouldn’t the fact that Florida has a defense on level with USC’s last year earn them some slack offensively- I mean the Alabama thing is one of the comparisons that’s truly annoying- Florida beats Tennessee 23-13 in a game not nearly as close as the score indicates and its a sign of weakness, Bama beats that same Tennessee team on a miracle as time expires and it shows toughness and grit, it just seems like a double standard.
The problem is that Florida was expected to be great offensively this year, but it is not, while Alabama was never expected to be great offensively.
Sure, Florida is gutting out some games with defense, but the identity of the program lately has been to be great offensively and that lack of offense should make people scratch their heads a bit, win or not.
By that same measure shouldn’t USC’s struggles also trouble you- Outside of the Cal game every single game against a team with a pulse has been a struggle, I can understand having Florida under say Cincy and Iowa (making them #4 or #5) or even under a typical 1 loss USC team, but this Trojan team hasn’t been typical- they didn’t lose their one PAC-10 mystery game and then turn it on against everyone else- they’ve struggled as much as Florida, Bama, Iowa or Texas have the last 2 weeks and yet you seem blind to their flaws. I guess what I’m trying to say is why is every other top teams inability to shut the door a factor that must be accounted for (something I agree with you on) but not USC’s- in what way was USC’s win on Saturday more impressive than say Florida’s win over MSU or Oregon’s over UW (both of which came in hostile road enviroments- Florida had lost its last 6 trips to Starksville, and USC can attest to Seattle’s hostility.
I actually see USC a bit differently.
USC’s achilles heel in recent years has been its offensive sputtering and inconsistency in conference play.
However, USC has now increased its scoring output four straight games, the first time it has done so since 2003. This tells me that USC is on the right track offensively and indeed is on its way to being very good in that area. Note that USC has the second-best yard per play in college football right now.
As for its defense, I see that more the product of playing two very good offenses in consecutive weeks and the adjustment that is going on with USC’s recently found offensive success–i.e., USC scoring quicker and more often is giving opponents the ball back sooner and USC’s defense has not yet adjusted to that reality.
I don’t think you can compare MSU to Oregon State, as Oregon State’s offense–and team–is significantly better right now.
Wait… so USC having a mediocre (by USC standards at least) Offense AND Defense, lands them one spot ahead of a team that has a truly dominant defense, and won a national championship with that same model merely 3 years ago?
Urban Meyer has never been just “an offense guy”. He prides himself on excelling at ALL THREE PHASES. The fact that one of them is failing now is troubling, yeah, but it’s nice to know that the other two are picking up the slack.
I guess my problem lies in the fact that unit by unit- I think Florida has an edge:
Offensively- I think its pretty close but would still give the edge to Florida (if your going to use per play average instead of raw points- which i would admit is a more honest way to judge offenses as it removes Defensive TDs and Tds set up by the other units from the equation, I feel I should point out that Florida is offensively a superior team to USC, and is in fact a similar team to that it was a year ago- the difference is in Defensive TDs and Red Zone TDs), Defensively frankly its not much of a comparison- the Florida defense is very, very close to the USC defense from a year ago- its given up 4 total TDs on the entire year). Finally at some point I do think you have to look at on the field results and for all of its acclaim what has USC done this year to seperate themselves from Oregon much less to put themselves above Florida (or even Iowa- the Iowa win over PSU is better than any USC win this year), they have won arguably impressive win (over OSU) a second (and the only really decisive win over a decent team on the USC resume) over a Cal team that had been crushed the week before and a loss to a mediocre Washington unit, Florida has a win against LSU in which the defense was as dominant as any defense I’ve ever seen- LSU crossed midfield 3 times, 0 in the second half.
I’m having trouble understanding your logic. UF is #4 because their offense isn’t as good as expected, but Bama is #1 because they’re playing as people expected? To me they’re pretty much the same team: great defense, good running game, efficient but not explosive passing game. If there is a difference, it’s that Florida has been turning the ball over too much. But still, this is one of the best defenses in football, and most of the points scored against them have been because of turnovers. They return 11 starters from a team that held Oklahoma to 14 points (after Okla scored 60+ for 8 straight games). With no truly dominant team on the landscape, how can anyone count them out?
I heard Phil Steele on Rivals say he would take UF over Bama and USC, and I have to agree with him. UF’s defense is amazing when focused (similar to Bama) and has had quite a bit of injuries… I think the UF offense has the best players, but just need to get in sync. If Meyer rights that ship (which he’s done all decade), I think the Gators are easily #1.
Not you: that’s just my point. USC is a rapidly improving offensive team while Florida appears to be stagnating or even deteriorating. USC has scored 27-30-34-42 the last four games, while Florida has gone 41-13-23-29. So, I see two teams going in opposite directions on offense.
Socratic Silence: I think Yards Per Play is a great indicator of offensive prowess and currently USC is at 7 ypp (third nationally) despite stinking it up against UW.
By that same margin the deterioration of the USC defense should be troubling 3-27-36, at this rate the game on Saturday should be first one to 50, except at the same time Oregon appears to have figured out how to stop teams. I mean I just feel the complete dismissal of USC’s defensive woes is the sort of thing that led to the Big 12 South being viewed as a historically great divison and then going 1-3 in the Bowl Season.
Why aren’t more people talking about Tebow’s concussion? Am I the only one who notices the significant drop in Florida’s offense since that injury? Prior to the concussion Florida was blowing out opponents (except UT who I think we can all agree has a pretty good D and a GREAT D coordinator), since the concussion UF has relied heavily on the rushing attack and defense to win games.
My estimation is that the coaching staff has pulled the offense into an incredibly conservative game until Tebow is really at 100%. He is getting better by the game, but if you watch him closely over the last 3 games he has made many plays that just dont make sense for Tim Tebow to make. We have a solid sample of his work and this is not his work.
I am guessing Tebow is somewhere close to 80% recovered. His decision making and vision just are not what they were to start the season.
If I’m right, you’ll see the game opened up a little more each game leading up to FSU and the SEC Championship. Just an observation.
Yeah, the offense isn’t up to par, but considering that they had the opposite scenario in 2007, they’re doing really well.
And the flip side to this is that the defense is putting together its best year in, well, quite awhile. And the Gators need only a win and South Carolina loss to punch their ticket to Atlanta.
Also, within the SEC, the defense has held opposing offenses (Read: not total scoring) to just 9.8 points per game, 7.3 if you take away Arkansas.
Having that defense can’t hurt while UF tries to fix its offense.
And taking the scoring analysis one step further, both Florida and Alabama have allowed just 4 TDs in their 5 conference games, although, overall, Alabama’s stats and competition are better than Florida’s.
I’m siding with Johnny on this one. Here is a question to think about: Ignoring preseason expectations, who has the better D right now, Bama or the Gators? Who has the better O? Who has the better special teams?
I don’t watch either team enough to have an opinion myself on the answers, but it seems the experts on the internets feel that they are about even in all three categories. If there is an advantage it is probably held by the Gators D (slightly). So I would put them 1a/1b right now, and it really doesn’t matter which one is where as long as they are consecutive. Looking at potential improvement through the rest of the season, neither defense is likely to get a load better but the Gators offense could improve a bunch while I think Bama’s offense doesn’t have a lot of growth potential. Basically I think you are currently seeing the Bama team that you’ll see in late November and in January but I think the Gator team you see in November and January will be no worse than the current team and probably will be appreciably better.
SocraticSilence I think that your point about the USC defense giving up more and more points is valid, but it should be noted that the opponents USC and Oregon had in common were Washington State, Cal, and Washington and they both only gave up 6 points at home to Washington State, USC held Cal to 3 points on the road, Oregon gave up 3 points at home to Cal, Oregon gave up 19 on the road to Washington, and USC gave up 16 points on the road to Washington. I don’t really think you can say that USC and Oregon defenses are that much different when you consider the common opponents they have played. Also Notre Dame’s problem sure isn’t their offense and I am looking forward to a scoring fest at the Civil War.
I know that the Gators have struggled with a new offensive coordinator, but it was an interesting insight by Meyer that the Oklahoma-style hurry up offense was not letting Tebow read defenses. The results against Georgia show that the Gators are at their best when Tebow is given this opportunity.