The HeismanPundit.com Heisman Poll, 11/10

The HeismanPundit.com Heisman Poll, 11/10
Total Points with first place votes in parantheses

1. Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama–55 (9)

2. Case Keenum, QB, Houston–29 (1)

3. Colt McCoy, QB, Texas–28 (2)

4. Tim Tebow, QB, Florida–24

5. C.J. Spiller, RB, Clemson–16

6. Toby Gerhart, RB, Stanford–11

7. Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska–8

8. Golden Tate, WR, Notre Dame–7 (1)

    Kellen Moore, QB, Boise State–7

10. Jordan Shipley, WR, Texas–6

11. Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame–3

12. LaMichael James, RB, Oregon–1

About the Poll
 
The HeismanPundit.com Heisman Poll is made up of 13 Heisman voters from across the country. They vote for five players each week. Tabulations are made on a 5-4-3-2-1 basis, with five points awarded for a first-place vote, four points for a second-place vote and so on.  Last year’s final Heismanpundit poll was the most accurate in the country, picking five of the top six finishers in the Heisman vote, including the winner.

Members of the panel include: Mike Bianchi of the Orlando Sentinel, Teddy Greenstein and Brian Hamilton of the Chicago Tribune, Olin Buchanan and Tom Dienhart of Rivals.com, Jenni Carlson of The Oklahoman, Bruce Feldman of ESPN.com, J.B. Morris of ESPN the Magazine, Austin Murphy, B.J. Schecter and Stewart Mandel of Sports Illustrated, plus Dick Weiss of the New York Daily News. 

Chris Huston of HeismanPundit.com coordinates and also votes in the poll.
 
HP’s Thoughts
 
Mark Ingram appears to be in firm control of this race after his 144-yard rushing effort in the Tide’s win over LSU.  This means he’s on track to win the Heisman as long as he finishes strong and doesn’t slip up against Florida in the SEC Title game.  However, keep an eye on Colt McCoy of Texas, who is making a late run for the trophy.  I see the race as being between these two candidates, though as many as five players could be invited to New York for the award ceremony. 
 
From a Voter
 
“Julio made the highlight reel, but for the fourth or fifth game in a row, it was Ingram piling up yards when ‘Bama had to have them–especially with Greg McElroy continuing to struggle.  Yes, Tebow and McCOy had nice games, but they’ve lacked the consistency of Ingram, who in my mind is consolidating his grip on the award.”  —  a Heisman voter.

Heisman Game of the Week
 
No. 1 Florida at South Carolina–The Gators haven’t been the same offensively this season.  As a result, Tebow’s numbers have decline markedly and now he needs a jolt to kickstart his campaign.  A stellar performance against a good South Carolina defense would do just that.  However, a poor outing would, for all intents and purposes, bring his run for a second Heisman to a close.  If history is any guide, I wouldn’t count him out just yet.        

Player to Watch

C. J. Spiller, Clemson–Spiller is coming off a school-record 312 all-purpose yards against Florida State and now he’s beginning to make some noise in the Heisman race.  He is as spectacular a player as there is in college football.  He is on pace to become one of just five players to crack the 7,000-yard career mark in all-purpose yardage and he’s just one kickoff return touchdown away from the owning the NCAA career mark in that category.  If he puts together some more games like he had against FSU and Clemson wins the ACC, look out.

This Week in Heisman History

Ron Dayne rumbled 31 yards off right tackle to break Ricky Williams’ one-year-old NCAA career-rushing record, part of a 216-yard effort by the senior tailback in Wisconsin’s 41-3 win over Iowa in 1999.  He went on to handily beat out Joey Hamilton and Michael Vick in the 1999 Heisman voting.  Dayne’s final total of 6,397 career rushing yards still stands today.

About Heismanpundit

Chris Huston, A.K.A. ‘The Heisman Pundit‘, is a Heisman voter and the creator and publisher of Heismanpundit.com, a site dedicated to analysis of the Heisman Trophy and college football. Dubbed “the foremost authority on the Heisman” by Sports Illustrated, HP is regularly quoted or cited during football season in newspapers across the country. He is also a regular contributor on sports talk radio and television.

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36 Responses to The HeismanPundit.com Heisman Poll, 11/10

  1. Chad November 10, 2009 at 2:11 pm #

    Don’t make a mockery of this great award guys. Give it to the player who actually deserves it. The best player in football this year, the guy that is setting the world on fire…the stats, the come back wins, the leadership…the guy who means the most to his team. I don’t even have to say his name and you know who I’m talking about. That should tell you something.

  2. tigercpa November 10, 2009 at 2:17 pm #

    All fine candidates, IMO.

    Ingram’s numbers are pretty pedestrian by Heisman RB standards. 127 YPG Rushing and only 8 rush Tds.

    4 of 9 opponents have held him under 100 yards.

    I guess those numbers are impressive to some folks.

  3. Roger November 10, 2009 at 2:34 pm #

    You must be talking about Spiller. Couldn’t agree with you more.

    I think Ingram’s candidacy is an absolute disgrace–for one second, does anyone truly believe there aren’t 20 RBs in the country that could what he is doing in that situation? Seriously?

    I can handle McCoy to a degree, but I don’t think he’s been spectacular this year.

    Keenum certainly has a case based on stats, but doesn’t anyone sort of think this is Andre Ware 2.0? I mean, the level of competition has been weak at best. Let’s look at it this way…if Houston doesn’t recover that onside kick, Keenum is not in the Top 5 right now, so how is it justifiable that he’s #2 because of one fluke play on which he had ZERO impact? It’s fairly obvious this is a product of a system–let’s not forget that Tony Pike was on the periphery of the Heisman lists a few weeks back and while Cincy has two lovely QBs, does anyone really think they are supremely talented, franchise QBs? Of course not–they are products of a well coached team that has a very efficient system. Ditto with Houston…a backup might not have those numbers, but they still be eye popping–you don’t average 50+ attempts per game without putting up big yardage…it’s virtually impossible.

    Tebow: I think anyone who has watched UF play this year recognizes his value, but also recognizes that they are winning primarily with defense. Would they have a loss with a different QB? Maybe 1, yes…but that is probably it. Not sure he’s been so valuable to his team.

    The Heisman is for the best player…typically, this is the best QB or RB, etc. But, this year, Heisman voters actually have the ability to vote for the best all around player. Yes, Spiller is an RB, but he is really an offensive utility player and is always the best player on the field when he’s out there.

    It’s also worth pointing out Spiller’s stats in Clemson’s blowout wins…vs. MTSU, Coastal Carolina and Wake Forest (35-3 win), Spiller has 18 carries for 145 yards (8 ypc) and 2 total receptions for 6 yards…anyone think he might be in first place if his full year stat line read something like this….

    175 carries for 1065 yards & 7 TDs
    28 receptions for 493 yards & 4 TDs
    10 punt rets for 191 & 1 TD
    15 kick rets for 530 & 3 TDs

    I agree…he’d be much higher on the list. So, ergo, he’s being punished for not padding his stats in blowouts, and against lower level competition?? Really? That’s how the system works? Insanity.

  4. Roger November 10, 2009 at 2:53 pm #

    One other thing…links to the Juice Williams and Arrelius Benn Heisman sites are still up, but the Spiller link is not there.

  5. philnotfil November 10, 2009 at 3:56 pm #

    Looking at how Spiller’s numbers have gone up against Clemson’s toughest opponents is what got my attention. Splitting up his yards and TDs between all of the different ways he racks them up seems to be hurting him.

  6. Terry November 10, 2009 at 3:56 pm #

    If I hear _one more time_ that Houston has played a “weak” schedule I’m gonna smack someone! Keenum put up bigger numbers than Tebow or McCoy AGAINST COMMON OPPONENTS! You take Ingram, McCoy or Tebow off of their teams and THEY STILL WIN. Not so with Keenum. Wake up people, and quit drinking the rediculous BCS kool-aid!

  7. Anonymous November 10, 2009 at 4:01 pm #

    Mark Ingram is a “great back”. The 4 games in which he didn’t get 100 yards is a weak arguement. Saban does not believe in letting players pad their stats. Ingram’s under 100 yard games are as follows:

    ATT YDS AVG LNG TDS

    10 56 5.6 16 1 Florida Int’l
    8 91 11.4 22 1 North Texas
    17 50 2.9 14 1 Arkansas
    18 99 5.5 25 0 Tennessee

    I’ll give you the Arkansas game, but the other 3 he should have had more carries.

  8. Thomas November 10, 2009 at 4:59 pm #

    Judging from the fact HP didn’t even mention Case Keenum in his thoughts today I’d say there is nothing in the world that can be done for any player from UH to ever win the Heisman in HP’s mind. Period. So far as HP is concerned there are 117 schools from which the Heisman can be selected (not TTU, UH, or Hawaii because they have “systems”).

    Doesn’t matter if Case Keenum puts up 700 yards passing for each game the Cougars have remaining this season–it’s the “system”. Doesn’t matter in the least what has actually happened on the field, some people out there are 100% convinced the player isn’t worth a dime, it’s the “system” making the plays, winning the games inspite of a terrible defensive squad, and putting up a career year. Well, a career year for any other player in college football, but because UH had the Run-and-Shoot offense 20 years ago they must be running the same inflated offense these days too. The facts would say otherwise.

    UH runs the ball an average of 33 times per game. Not so anemic when you compare it to Texas Tech’s “system” of 24 times per game. Texas only runs the ball 37 times per game. Doesn’t make UH look like such a “system” after all, does it?

    So let’s do this to level the playing field between McCoy and Keenum, lets subtract from Keenum’s stats those extra 4 plays UH doesn’t run as rushing plays like UT would. Keenum averages 8.3 yards per attempt, times 4 plays, times 9 games–so we subtract out about 300 yards passing from Keenum’s stats to “evenly” compare McCoy and Keenum to take into account the “system” UH runs. So that leaves McCoy with 2,447 total yards passing and Keenum with 3,515 total yards passing. Pretty clear cut even taking into account the “system.”

    HP, aside from the “Media Bias Effect” why should McCoy be considered for the award over Keenum? Aside from hype there’s no logical rational for it.

    Is it McCoy’s 9 interceptions? Oh, wait, Keenum only has 5.

    Is it Colt’s 17 passing touchdowns? Oh, wait, Keenum has 28.

    I know, it must be Colt’s quarterback rating of 149.7. Nope, that can’t be it, Keenum’s is 158.9.

    Is it Colt’s clutch plays in close games? Let’s see, close games for UT, hmmm, how about that performance Colt showed against OU… nevermind, thanks Defense for holding OU to Negative 16 yards rushing that day and getting those 5 turnovers and knocking Bradford out of the game, couldn’t have done it without you. Really, couldn’t have.

    Here we go. It’s McCoy’s pass completion percentage of 72.9% that’s higher than Keenum’s lousy 71%. Geez, what was I thinking??

    Colt is more likely to win the Heisman Trophy because his completion percentage is 1.9% better than Keenum’s. Forget the rest of the stats and facts and clutch play in close games–it’s the completion percentage that matters most.

    Honestly HP, how can you knock UH so much when you yourself rank Houston as the tenth best team in the country? “System” or not, which ever side you take, at some point one needs to take a step back and realize Case Keenum has single-handedly taken a team with zero expectations and thrust them into the national rankings as a potential BCS eligible team (not going to a BCS game unless God himself has a hand in aligning the stars, but might be eligible–quite a feat for lowly UH).

    Heismandment Number 6. At what point is the offensive “system” no longer a factor HP?

  9. DannyAdelante November 10, 2009 at 8:57 pm #

    Great post by Thomas. I don’t care who wins it, as long as they’re deserving. If McCoy wins it, it’ll be a career achievement award. He’ll get a retired jersey from UT for that – no need to cheapen college football’s most important individual award because of it. It will be more insulting than Eric Crouch.

    HP, your Heismandments don’t have to be law. Tebow broke them in 07, Bradford in 08.
    The Bucs won the Superbowl in 02. Boise State beat Oklahoma. Notre Dame went 3-9. Things that aren’t always “the norm” happen. Stop trying to mould the Heisman winner to correspond with your Heismandments.

  10. Andy November 11, 2009 at 10:01 am #

    In 2006 Houston’s QB (Colb) had 20 or so fewer attempts on the year as does Keenum right now with a win over Ok State but losses to Miami and two lesser quality teams. The result: a better passer rating! Sounds like a system to me!?!

    If you can’t lead your team to a win over UTEP, are you really the best player in the country? If you need an on-side kick to beat Tulsa (4-5) are you really the best player in the country? If the guy who played QB the year before you got the starting spot put up better stats than you (even if only marginally better) are you really the best player in the country?

  11. Bob November 11, 2009 at 10:53 am #

    I would like for someone to tell me what more can Spiller do to win this? I can only think of two. One, he could throw a pass for a touchdown. Two, line up as a cornerback, intercept a pass, and run it in for a TD. This says it all — http://clemsontigers.cstv.com/sports/m-footbl/spec-rel/spiller-for-heisman.html

  12. Craig November 11, 2009 at 11:57 am #

    Keenum is the best player in the country, and I am glad to see he has moved up to #2 in the Heisman Pundit poll, hopefully to take over the #1 spot before all is said and done.

    I know Houston has won some close games this year, but the reason they WON those close games is because Keenum led to to the comeback victories. Dude is so clutch it’s almost unbelievable.

    Keenum put up video game numbers against solid BCS teams Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, and Mississippi State because Case Keenum REALLY IS AS GOOD AS HE SEEMS. And keep in mind, Houston is operating with the #116 ranked defense in the country yet they are 8-1. If Houston’s defense could get anyone off the field, Keenum would have more opportunities.

    When asked about winning the Heisman, Keenum responded, “I don’t know what to think about all that. That’s a lot of stuff I don’t know about and am not experienced with. I’m going to ignore that as much as possible and just do what I do. I would rather be on the practice field taking a snap and not answering questions about it.”

  13. tigercpa November 11, 2009 at 2:38 pm #

    You are about right. About the only thing SPiller hasn’t done this year is throw for a TD.

    Until saturday night the two things he had not done this eyar were throw for a TD and get a 2pt conversion. He got a 2 pointer saturday night aginst FSU.

    But, UVA is coming to Death Valley on teh 21st and he did throw for a TD versus the Hoos last year, so you never know.

  14. Brian November 11, 2009 at 2:53 pm #

    Anyone who thinks that any back could do what Ingram is doing should look up his yards after contact stats. They are impressive and extraordinary.

    Also, Ingram leads the country with 24 rushes of 15 yards or longer this season. He has 13 rushes of 20 yards or longer, which is tied for the most nationally.

    I saw someone mention that Spiller’s best games have come against Clemson’s toughest competition. My response: What tough competition? It’s the ACC. Nobody can play Defense.

    Ingram puts up his stats against the best D’s in the country.

  15. Chad November 11, 2009 at 4:24 pm #

    Clemson is about as a big a reach as a Notre Dame player being in the mix. Wether youre for him or against him, Keenum is the most talked about player in this race. Dude gets more posts on the net than Tebow gets face time on ESPN. That’s a ton.

  16. Karl November 11, 2009 at 5:27 pm #

    I think too many posters here are getting the player with the best stats confused with the “most outstanding player”.

    If we gave the award to the QB with the most yards and TD passes every year, we’d have a Hawaii/Houston/Texas Tech/other system QB award. Yes these guys put up huge numbers, NO that does not make them outstanding. When every game is a 56-55 shootout huge numbers are going to be posted.

    The most outstanding Quarterback may not have the best stats for a variety of reasons. If his team dominates its competition, as more conservative plays will be called, the offensive dogs will be pulled back sooner, and his stats will not be sky high.

    Conversely putting up huge numbers does not make a QB great. A perfect example of this is Texas Tech, but Houston could be used as another example. These teams have great offensive systems. Against mediocre competition their offenses tear it up, and the QB’s post huge numbers. But the fact is these QB’s aren’t great, the system is great. They are easily replaced by a competent back-up. They are not the most outstanding player in football. They do not deserve the Heisman.

  17. Geoff November 11, 2009 at 8:46 pm #

    One only needs to look at the entire history of the Heisman Award to see that almost every year the person who won wasn’t necessarily the leader in their respective stats (almost..). So to say, “what has the Heisman turned in to..” is really a bogus complaint…because it’s always been this way. Only difference – schools that were huge back in the day, aren’t as big anymore (think military schools, etc)…it’s not bias or BCS, it’s trends and changing times.

    It’s very hard to NOT put Keenum in the “system quarterback” category when you see the results compared to Colt and Texas. Texas and Houston have played 2 common opponents, and the margin and style of victor favor Colt and Texas. In fact, against UTEP (who is 3-6, mind you) – Keenum’s team LOST…Texas blew UTEP away 64-7. Some might say the best player in the nation finds a way for his team to win, period…

    With that said, Keenum is a STELLAR player and a fantastic quarterback and really does deserve to be in contention for this award – but that’s it. He shouldn’t be guaranteed any more just because of stats…especially with the loss and close games they’ve had.

    Finally, quit attacking HP – he puts up who he believes will actually win the award…not who he THINKS should win…

  18. Thomas November 11, 2009 at 11:02 pm #

    It’s almost as if Keenum’s numbers are so astronomical half the people out there refuse to believe he could possibly be any more than just another Andre Ware and deduce that it’s all the “system”. But even if it’s the “system” that drives Keenum’s stats how do the cynics explain his high yards per attempt average, or his completion percentage, or his quarterback rating? These stats reflect efficiency and quality of play, not the quantity of the “system” argument some keep trying to jam down our throats. What about UH’s high third-down efficiency (7th in the country)? What about UH’s high fourth-down efficiency (16th in the country)? Sure Keenum has run more offensive plays than any other quarterback in the nation–it’s a matter of the style of play rather than the system of offense. Trying watching the UH game this weekend versus UCF. UH has a style of play folks. Florida has a system. The option is a system, why don’t we hear anything about that? Differentiate between the system of play and the style of play.

    It’s not like UH makes huge plays every game of 80+ yards. With Keenum’s 325 completions his longest pass of the year is just 58 yards. If the “big play” passing program was the “system” run by UH there would be a logical argument. But how can detractors dismiss Keenum by saying “he’s passed the ball too much this year, that’s why he looks so good”? And don’t say “if we only looked at stats Keenum would be the Heisman winner hands-down, but there’s more too it” because anyone who’s anyone important who’s seen UH play this year knows Keenum does more than just put up stats. And don’t say the stats don’t matter, because then you’re just lying to yourself.

    And for all those detractors of Keenum out there using the argument of “well, UH lost to UTEP” or “why so many close games?” or “well, UH ‘almost’ lost to ____” do us all a favor and actually take a minute to learn one very important difference between UH and the big three National Championship contenders of Florida, Alabama, and UT.

    Those three are among top 5 defenses in the country. UH is in the bottom 5 in defense.

    The UH defense has allowed about twice as many total yards as any one of those three teams.

    The UH defense allows an average of more than 30 points per game. The big three, all less than 13 points per game.

    Keenum didn’t lose that game versus UTEP like Clausen was instrumental in Notre Dame’s loss to Navy. Keenum takes the bad defensive hand he was delt and makes the most of it.

    For those who don’t believe Keenum is the best player in college football this year, tell me why and in what ways your player is better than Keenum. Stop writing off Keenum because it’s UH, or because it’s C-USA, or because the average S.O.S. of UH, or whatever excuse that’s been imagined to downplay this amazing QB. What makes Tebow better than Keenum? In what ways is McCoy superior to Keenum? How is Ingram more instrumental than Keenum?

  19. Thomas November 11, 2009 at 11:14 pm #

    Geoff wrote:
    “It’s very hard to NOT put Keenum in the “system quarterback” category when you see the results compared to Colt and Texas. Texas and Houston have played 2 common opponents, and the margin and style of victor favor Colt and Texas. In fact, against UTEP (who is 3-6, mind you) – Keenum’s team LOST…Texas blew UTEP away 64-7. Some might say the best player in the nation finds a way for his team to win, period…

    With that said, Keenum is a STELLAR player and a fantastic quarterback and really does deserve to be in contention for this award – but that’s it. He shouldn’t be guaranteed any more just because of stats…especially with the loss and close games they’ve had.

    Finally, quit attacking HP – he puts up who he believes will actually win the award…not who he THINKS should win…”

    Geoff old buddy, old pal. The best player in the nation finds a way for his team to win? In a related story Keenum will be playing linebacker this week as well to help improve the UH defense… Com’on man, when the defense holds the opponent to only 7 points it makes the prospect of winning quite a bit more likely.

    And then you attack the man’s credibility because he has pulled out last minute wins many times this year?? A win is a win whether the score is 46-45 or 64-7 my man. Pulling out a last minute win is more impressive than a blow out if anything. It takes a real hero to do what is needed in a time of need. Keenum fits that bill.

  20. Hi November 12, 2009 at 12:59 am #

    I like football.

  21. Roby November 12, 2009 at 4:17 am #

    Case Keenum has played real well this year. There is no arguing that. But to point directly at his raw statistics as reason to win The Heisman is ridiculous. Look at the numbers in context. Compare them to a QB who has recently fallen out of favor of the Heisman voters. Tim Tebow.

    Quick comparison:

    Houston’s PPG = 24
    Florida’s PPG = 35

    But Houston runs 84 offensive plays to Florida’s 66.

    Houston’s Points per play= .50
    Florida’s Points per play= .53

    Someone said that system and style are the same thing. Fine. Houston’s system/style inflates his statistics, whereas Florida’s style/system deflates Tebow’s statistics.

    Houston’s run/pass ratio: 32/52
    Florida’s run/pass ratio: 43/23

    Keenum’s yards/attempt = 8.3
    Tebow’s yards/attempt = 8.8

    Keenum has attempted 458 passess for 28 TD
    Tebow has attempted 173 passes 11 TD

    If Tebow threw as much as Keenum, he would have 29 TDs.

    My point is not to belittle Keenum’s accomplishments, because he has been great. But if you are gonna argue statistics, put them in context. He produces a lot of stats because he takes a lot of snaps.

    If you want to say “Keenum should win because his team requests a lot from him, and he has delivered.” That is perfectly fine. But The same can be said of guys like Ingram, and Tebow.

    Ingram has to take the burden off Alabama’s anemic passing game and runs hard even after contact. Tebow has score points with recievers who refuse to get open, behind a line that doesn’t protect him. And they ask him to run the ball over 15 times per game.

    This race is not an open and shut case like some Keenum supporters want you to believe. Don’t give the award to Keenum just because of his raw stats. But, don’t deny him the award simply because he goes to Houston. That would be equally stupid. Please give the award to “the greatest football player in the land.” (whatever that means to you).

    This race should still be wide open. “Heisman moments” should be the difference maker in this race.

    *Obviously I am a Gator fan. But actually, I didn’t really think Tebow should win a second Heisman until I started preparing this post. Now I think his name belongs up there with the rest of them.

  22. Jerry November 12, 2009 at 7:23 am #

    Roby,

    That’s the most logical response I’ve read.

    As a UH fan, I think all we’re asking is for voters (and the general public) not to dismiss Keenum for playing in CUSA or being a “system QB”.

    I agree stats aren’t everything.

    If voters will actually watch Keenum play, they’ll see he’s not just a video game stat machine…he’s clutch, he’s a leader, he’s got 20 eyes in his head, he sees all his recievers, he sees behind him, he’s uncanny at avoiding the rush. He’s an extremely smart player. I’d guess Keenum audibles into about 25% of UH’s plays.

    I don’t know many players in this country that could single-handedly lead their teams to a Top 15 ranking and 8-1 record while saddled with a defense ranked #116 out of 120 D-1A teams.

  23. EJ November 12, 2009 at 8:43 am #

    Why Case Keenum deserves it better than Tim Tebow or Colt McCoy

    Keenum vs. Miss State: 435 Yards, 4 TDs, 2 Ints
    Tebow vs. Miss State: 127 Yards, 0 TD, 2 Ints (1 returned for a TD)

    Keenum vs. Texas Tech: 435 Yards, 1 TD, 1 Int, 1 Rush TD
    McCoy vs. Texas Tech: 205 Yards, 1 TD, 1 Int

    Keenum vs. Oklahoma State: 366 Yards, 3 TDs, 1 Int, 1 Rush TD
    McCoy vs. Oklahoma State: 171 Yards, 1 TD, 0 Int

    Keenum vs. UTEP: 536 Yards, 5 TDs, 0 Int
    McCoy vs. UTEP: 286 Yards, 3 TDs, 1 Int

    2009 Game Log:
    Keenum: 3,815 Yards, 28 TDs, 5 Int, 3 Rush TDs
    McCoy: 2,247 Yards, 17 TDs, 9 Ints, 1 Rush TD
    Tebow: 1,131 Yards, 11 TDs, 4 Ints, 9 Rush TDs

    Say what you want about McCoy, Tebow and Ingram, but their teams are led by their defenses. Texas, Florida and Alabama are ranked first, second and fourth in total defense. Houston is 116th.

  24. philnotfil November 12, 2009 at 9:29 am #

    Pointing to Tebow’s poor production against Mississippi without acknowledging that Tebow was going up against the man who taught him everything he knows about playing quarterback at the college level is a little misleading. Mullen knows that offense better than anyone other than Meyer, and he knows Tebow better than Meyer does.

  25. Andy November 12, 2009 at 9:43 am #

    Is Keenum the product of Houston’s pass-happy attack? That’s what these numbers say!

    Houston’s 2006 QB, Kevin Kolb, the last guy to start before Keenum, had better stats (including passer rating) with slightly fewer attempts for the year than does Keenum right now. So, the last guy to play QB at Houston put up better stats than Keenum over a comparable number of pass attempts. The 06 schedule also included Ok State as well as Miami.

    Keenum YTD 2009: 325 of 458 for 3815 yards 28 TDs 5 Ints 158.9 Rating

    Kolb in 2006 for the year: 292 of 432 for 3809 yards 30 TDs 4 Ints and 162.7 rating

  26. Brian November 12, 2009 at 10:06 am #

    Roby, that was a great post. Thanks for taking the time to breakdown the stats. I agree with you, stats without context are useless. Stats can be manipulated to make any argument you want to make, it’s the context that matters.

  27. sandymex November 12, 2009 at 5:32 pm #

    Roby –

    Minor error:
    Houston’s Points per play= .28
    Florida’s Points per play= .53

  28. slippy November 12, 2009 at 5:40 pm #

    sandy – his error was a typo. Houston is averaging 44 ppg, not 24.

    Regardless, statements like “If Tebow threw as much as Keenum, he would have 29 TDs.” show a blatant disregard for an understanding of football. If Tebow threw as much as Keenum, his completion percentage would be lower, his TD rate would be lower, and his INTs would be higher. Tebow is just as much a ‘system’ QB as Keenum is. His ability to run the ball is what makes his passing threat so high. When teams know Tebow has to throw is when Florida is at their worst.

  29. Brian November 13, 2009 at 8:02 am #

    Interesting stats on Mark Ingram from Chris Low’s blog:

    Mark Ingram is tied for second nationally with 38 rushes of 10 yards or more and has nine receptions of 10 yards or more for a total of 47 plays of 10 yards or more. Of Ingram’s 199 touches (175 rushes, 24 receptions), almost a quarter (23.6 percent) have gone for at least 10 yards.

    Ingram has gained 752 of his 1,364 rushing/receiving yards after contact this season, accounting for 55.1 percent of his total yards. He reeled off a season-best 167 total yards after contact against South Carolina on 24 rushes and two receptions. He also broke the 100-yard barrier on yards after contact against Virginia Tech (115) and LSU (107) and got close at Ole Miss (95).

  30. sandymex November 13, 2009 at 3:39 pm #

    Slippy –

    A blatant disregard for an understanding of football? Comments like that are what really turn off sensible fans to Keenum. I have no problem with Keenum being among the front runners, but I do have a problem with those who dismiss other deserving candidates. The context problem with Keenum is that he’s faced awful defenses. The very best pass defense he has faced was 9th in the SEC.

    Tebow is leading the #1 team in the nation, has won 19 straight games, and is playing in the toughest conference in the nation. He has persevered despite a decimated receiver corps, a struggling offensive line (more sacks than the last 3 years combined), and a new offensive coordinator. He’s suffered a concussion and played through injury and illness.

    Keenum-level competition this year was Charleston Southern and Troy. Rounding Tebow up to 4 quarters of play and extrapolating that over 9 games yields 45 passing TDs, 0 INTs, 18 rushing TDs, with over 4500 yards of offense. That’s what playing whole games against the Mickey Mouse Club will do for you.

    Ingram, McCoy and Tebow still have opportunities to be difference-makers. Keenum’s biggest risk is making an ass of himself like he did against Tulane or having another disastrous fumble returned for a TD like he did against UTEP.

  31. slippy November 13, 2009 at 10:05 pm #

    I’m not touting Keenum – just pointing out the flawed logic in the previous poster’s argument. You also didn’t argue my point, which I will assume means you agree with me. Keenum throws 50 times a game because he has to for a win. If Tebow threw 50 times a game, his stats would be ugly.

    As other people have pointed out however, Keenum has played a similar schedule to Colt McCoy.

    Saying Tebow plays in the toughest conference is a subjective argument.

    Talking about how bad Mississippi St’s pass defense is just hurts Tebows campaign. In case you forgot: 12/22 127 yards 0 TD 2 INT (both returned for TDs). Keenum: 39/52 434 yards 4 TD 2 INT (one returned for TD). Florida won by 10 (on a completely BS TD return by Doe), Houston by 7.

    Guess what else? Houston has beaten the same number of ranked teams Florida has.

    I’m not saying Keenum should win, or should finish higher than Tebow. You just need to come up with arguments that actually hold water.

  32. sandymex November 14, 2009 at 12:00 am #

    Tebow faced the 10th best pass defense last week and will face 7th best pass defense tomorrow. While Keenum faced the 110th best defense last week (out of 120) and will face the 114th best pass defense tomorrow. I pointed out how well Tebow has fared against the kinds of defenses Keenum faces on a weekly basis.

    You say bad things happen when Tebow throws, but if that’s true, why does Tebow have a nearly identical passer rating to Keenum? If Tebow hadn’t faced his long-time mentor, he would currently have the better passer rating.

    28.8% of Florida plays are Tebow passes. 59.3% of Houston plays are Keenum passes. Despite Houston’s pass-happy attack, UF averages almost as many yards/play – 6.6 for UF, 6.8 for Houston. Keenum is only averaging 0.2 yards/play more against much worse defenses.

    These numbers are comparable because Tebow uses the option very much like Keenum throws the dink pass. The difference is that Tebow’s option pitches don’t appear anywhere in his stats. But UF has three rushers in the top 30 in the nation in yards/carry because Tebow is such a threat and runs the option so well.

  33. Robert November 16, 2009 at 8:51 am #

    One poster mentioned only Ingram’s rushing touchdowns. Why ignore his receiving yards and TDs? He now has 13 touchdowns rushing and receiving combined, and he likely will end up with 2,000 combined yards. It’s pretty silly to overlook his receiving stats.

    6.7 yards per carry is hardly “pedestrian”. With a quality back-up like Richardson, and the fact that Saban won’t just let Ingram pile up meaningless stats, the fact is that Ingram has only 19 carries per game. Had Ingram been able to carry the ball an extra 5 or 6 times per game over the course of the season, we would be looking at 2,000 rushing yards for the year, and there would be no debate about him winning the Heisman. Most voters, I think, understand that.

  34. slippy November 16, 2009 at 11:31 am #

    I didn’t say bad things happen when he throws. Bad things happen when he HAS to throw. But how many times has Florida been down with little time left? There’s a reason he only has 1 (I think, feel free to correct me, but I know its not more than 2 or 3) 4th quarter comeback in his life. The talent around him is spectacular enough to keep his team from falling behind, and he’s just not a great passed. You put Florida against a good rush defense down 10 with 7 minutes to play, Tebow can not lead them back. That’s the difference with him and Keenum.

    Keenum throws that many times because he has to for his team to win. If Tebow HAS to throw to win, they won’t.

  35. slippy November 16, 2009 at 11:32 am #

    I would like to restate my point that those sorts of opinions are of a) homer fans or b) people with low understanding of the game of football.

  36. JUSTAFAN November 17, 2009 at 6:57 am #

    STAT FOR STAT, TCU’S ANDY DALTON IS AS
    GOOD AS MCCOY OR TEBOW THIS YEAR.