Here is the list of players who (right now) have the best chance of actually winning the Heisman:
1. Mark Ingram, Alabama–Ingram had another good game, rushing for 149 yards and two touchdowns on 19 carries against Mississippi State. He’ll pad his stats some more against Chattanooga next Saturday, then will have a chance to clinch the Heisman against Auburn and Florida. On the year, he has 1,297 yards and 10 touchdowns, with another 25 catches for 225 yards and three scores. He is on pace to have 1,686 yards and 13 touchdowns by the time the Heisman vote is due. If he keeps doing what he has been doing and then closes out strong in a win over Florida, I like his chances of winning the Heisman. However, the surges by running backs Toby Gerhart and C.J. Spiller could dilute some of his strength across the various voting regions. Ingram’s old advantage of being the only legitimate running back in a race filled with quarterbacks might be turned on its head as he could end up being one of three running back candidates versus just one quarterback (McCoy). This is one reason why I give him only a slight edge over McCoy right now.
2. Colt McCoy, Texas–McCoy is playing well of late and is coming off a 181-yard, two-TD performance in a rout of Baylor. On the year, he has 2,628 passing yards, with 19 touchdowns and eight interceptions, while completing 72 percent of his passes. He is on pace to have 3,416 passing yards, 25 touchdown passes and 12 interceptions by the time the Heisman vote is due. Is this enough to overcome Ingram’s late surge? The imminent collapse of Case Keenum’s candidacy should move some voters his way and many will be impressed by his career achievements, including the most wins ever by a quarterback. McCoy is in a fairly good position: If Alabama beats Florida, it eliminates the last quarterback with a shot at garnering significant support (Tebow) and makes McCoy the most viable option at that position. If Florida beats Alabama, though, it could increase Tebow’s support at Ingram’s expense while making it likely that neither can beat out McCoy. Of course, McCoy has to finish strong and get Texas to the BCS title game to make all this work.
3. Toby Gerhart, Stanford–I wrote earlier last week about the player with the best chance of mounting a late-season run at the Heisman. It was a wild scenario dependent on Gerhart having a big game against USC. Well, he rushed for 178 yards and three touchdowns against the Trojans, giving him 1,395 yards and 19 touchdowns on the season. He’s on pace to have 1,674 yards and 23 touchdowns by the time the Heisman vote is due (in 12 games, versus 13 for Ingram and McCoy). Gerhart is still a longshot, but he does have a shot. Of course, Stanford needs to win out, which would mean respectable wins over Cal and Notre Dame to give the Cardinal a 9-3 record. He would need for Ingram to wilt down the stretch, yet for Alabama to beat Florida, thus eliminating both Ingram and Tebow. Meanwhile, McCoy would have to underwhelm the rest of the way, while Gerhart closes with big games against the Bears and the Irish. Can it happen? Sure. Will it? There’s the rub. Stanford needs to start making its case on his behalf, anyway.
4. Tim Tebow, Florida–Tebow had 199 yards and one touchdown passing, along with 26 yards and a touchdown rushing against South Carolina. On the year, he has 1,730 passing yards, 12 TD passes and four interceptions, along with 604 rushing yards and 10 scores. He is on pace to have 2,249 passing yards, 16 touchdown passes, five interceptions, 785 rushing yards and 13 scores by the time the Heisman vote is due. I think Tebow’s Heisman hopes are dwindling fast and his only hope is to put up crazy numbers from this point on. Of course, the Gators need to win out, but he also needs for Ingram, McCoy and Gerhart to tank. I think that is unlikely to happen, but you never know.
If the vote were held today
1. Mark Ingram
2. Colt McCoy
3. Tim Tebow
4. Toby Gerhart
5. Case Keenum
6. C.J. Spiller
7. Kellen Moore
8. Ndamukong Suh
9. Jimmy Clausen
10. Jordan Shipley
Spiller is in the top 5 or you are crazy
Have to agree on SPiller. What else does the guy need to do?
Also, still struggling with Ingram’s candidacy as “most outstanding”….
Gerhart’s candidacy is more legitimate than Ingram’s, IMHO. The Academic angle is also a plus here.
Now you say Gerhart has to “tank” for Tebow to have a chance? Why is it so hard for you to admit that Tebow keeps persevering despite very serious problems at offensive line and receiver? 24 sacks, 10 dropped TDs and Tebow still has the Gators poised to play for a 3rd national title in 4 years. Barring something strange happening, the winner of the SEC championship will be a front runner. Despite a fantastic offensive line, I’m not Gerhart even gets an invite to New York.
Is that your ballot or your predicted vote total if it were held today?
You don’t actually think Tebow deserves the Heisman less than McCoy? He’s putting up better numbers (TDs, rating) in a tougher conference (esp. defensively).
Also, why does Case Keenum still get ranked above Kellen Moore. Moore has better numbers and his team is undefeated. If we’re not talking about how people will vote because of their prejudicies shouldn’t Moore be #1 or #2 (behind Tebow).
Odds are Florida is going to beat Alabama so shouldn’t you take that into account and put McCoy 1st (or Tebow since he’s better?).
Okay so where is Josh Nesbitt on these ranking and why can’t he get any love. As of right now Tech is ranked #7 in the nation, and Nesbitt has 847 rushing yards for 13 TDs, and 1418 passing yards for 8 more TDs. Thats a total of 2265 total yards with 21 total TDs. Those numbers are better then Tebows, and up there with everyone elses. He should be in the top 10 with Spiller taking the top honors.
John Nesbitt also sports a 46.4% completion percentage.
Will you people read the first line? This is not HP’s best players or most deserving. It’s who the Heisman voters see and who they would vote for if the season had ended Saturday. We know it’s not truly the most outstanding player that wins. It’s the best QB or RB on a top team, or the most ridiculous (stat-wise) season ever.
GT is #7 yes, but they don’t have a chance to make it to the NC game, so they’re out. Clemson’s team hasn’t done enough.
Tebow’s campaign is crippled because he already won.
If Gerhart put up the same numbers in losses, he wouldn’t be up there. Voters saw him show up in big games, plus he had the piece on Gameday to give him more exposure, before trouncing a traditional power.
Really Steve? Tebow has 1000 yards LESS than McCoy in passing…and the majority of his touchdowns come from 5 yard or less goal line run plays…fact of the matter, Tebow has really been a fraction of what he was during his sophomore year (when he actually DESERVED it…)
If he wasn’t on a top 2 or 3 team, he wouldn’t even be considered, well that and if his last name didn’t start with Te, and end in bow. With that said, McCoy wouldn’t be getting much consideration either if it weren’t for his team’s status…but when compared together, Colt is far superior.
“As of right now Tech is ranked #7 in the nation, and Nesbitt has 847 rushing yards for 13 TDs, and 1418 passing yards for 8 more TDs. Thats a total of 2265 total yards with 21 total TDs. Those numbers are better then Tebows”
Haha, let’s just compare that to what HP has posted above: Tebow “has 1,730 passing yards, 12 TD passes and four interceptions, along with 604 rushing yards and 10 scores.”
So let’s compare…
Passing yards:
Tebow: 1730
Nesbitt: 1418
Rushing yards:
Tebow: 604
Nesbitt: 847
Total yards:
Tebow: 2334
Nesbitt: 2265
Passing TDs:
Tebow: 12
Nesbitt: 8
Rushing TDs:
Tebow: 10
Nesbitt: 13
Total TDs:
Tebow: 22
Nesbitt: 21
Now, I think Nesbitt is great, he’s exciting, he’s outstanding, and he should get some Heisman talk. Also, his offense isn’t as prone to big stats at you would think Tebow’s would be. So yes, he’s very good. However, using the argument that “those numbers are better [than] Tebows” is just plain fallacious. Plus, Tebow’s numbers aren’t that spectacular, anyway, so he shouldn’t be the statistical measuring stick against whom Nesbitt is compared.
As for what spiller needs to do, oh, I don’t know…
Maybe rank in the top 40 in any major rushing catagory? He’s 42nd in rushing yards, and tied for 81st in rushing TDs. And playing in a joke of a conference like the ACC, if he wanted to have a legitimate shot at the heisman, he should be averaging more than 87 rushing yards per game.
Spiller’s not even the best running back in his conference, much less the nation.
Baring an upset, it’s going to come down to McCoy, Ingram or Tebow. I suspect the loser of the SEC championship game will be out of the running.
Currently McCoy has 358 more yards than Tebow, but McCoy also has 5 more interceptions and 2 less TDs. In McCoy’s favor is that he’s stepped it up as of late AND he has more passing yards. In Tebow’s favor is that he’s played a tougher schedule against tougher defenses and he’s made UF a top 10 rushing team by running the option.
Don’t call the acc a joke when they have more
ranked teams than any other conference..want to know
what spiller can do against a great d? Check
tcu game..he is first player in last
few years
to get over 100 rushing on them and he got a
rushing td
and
over 70 yards recieving..u
can’t look At stats
when spiller
doesn’t pad stats..otherwise he would have
1300 Rushing and 500+ recieving with 6 or
7 tds buy Clemson takes
starters out
in blowouts..spiller has
more
tds than ingram also
I can see where he is getting his logic in determining the top 3. All quality players. The only hitch I feel is that ‘on the whole’ Texas does not play the quality of teams that Florida or Alabama plays on a regular basis. As far as the ACC having more teams ranked in the top 25, I haven’t check this week but I believe that for consistency over the past few years, you would see a higher percentage of SEC teams in the top 25 than any other conference. It’s brutal to try and go undefeated or even lose just one game. Put Florida or Alabama in the Big Ten, Big Twelve, ACC or, that wimp conference PAC-10, and they would probably win the conference 80% of the time.
That is what makes Tebow and Ingram the better selections when you consider the competition they have to face most of the year versus other players. But politics ‘always’ plays a role and the SEC is just one conference.
Personally, I believe McCoy will get the award unless they have a letdown as Tebow has won it before as well as he’s not having the best season statistically, and nobody likes Alabama. Let’s face it, if Bart Star, Kenny Stabler, Scott Hunter and Joe Namath never won it, you can just about bet Ingram is toast no matter how well he plays. It’s a pity prejudice plays into this process so much but it is just a ‘fairly’ small group that makes this selection and ‘most of the time’ they do get it right.
Geoff,
Colt McCoy has accounted for fewer touchdowns than Tebow and has a lower pass efficiency rating. He’s total yardage is comparable. So you could make a stretch and say that they’re about even, but he’s thrown more than twice as many picks.
Tebow deserve the Heisman when he won it, he deserved it last year, and Kellen Moore deserve it this year but no one is even considering him so they might as well give it to Tebow to make up for last year.
If they give it to Ingram after he loses to Florida and has fewer rushing touchdowns than Tebow, or to McCoy with those numbers against bad teams, then I don’t know what the world is coming to.
You’re ALL missing the point; Gerhart should be the easy winner. He has carried Stanford on his back from terrible to terrific, playing against a stronger schedule with less talent surrounding him. His OL is made up of underrecruited underclassmen. It is purely miraculous the thing’s Stanford has done the past two weeks, and Toby is reason #1.
The SEC is obviously the pumped up ESPN media darling, while the Pac-10 is clearly the best conference in college football this year. And Toby Gerhart has punished every one in it, and especially the best defenses. Pac-10 rushing defenses are stronger than the SEC (look up the stats), and Stanford actually schedules more than strawmen for out of conference opponents (one of Toby’s worst performances was at Wake Forest, after flying across the country and playing at 9am PST).
If there is justice in this process, Toby wins and it isn’t close.
One way of measuring the strength of an offensive line is to look at sacks/pass attempt:
From best to worst:
Boise St – 63.8 passes/sack
Stanford – 40.5
Houston – 37.6
Alabama – 29.8
Clemson – 19.4
Texas – 15.8
Florida – 9.7
Clearly Moore and Gerhart have cake walks compared to McCoy and Tebow. This lends some weight to Spiller’s candidacy too.
The beauty of this comparison is that it tends to neutralize differences in levels of competition. Nobody thinks Boise State’s OL is the best, but it’s clearly the best relative to the teams it faces.
Kudos Sandymex…that’s an interesting stat you don’t normally see.
There’s a lot more factors in that sacks/pass stat than just the defenses they play. BSU’s is that high yes based on opposition, but even if a tough conference I would still say they would be in the top 2 or 3 on that list. Their offense involves a ridiculous amount of formations and misdirection – tough for any defense to read.
Stanford has a bruising running game that opens up the pass. Houston relies on quick passes – as does Texas, which surprises me that they’re that low, considering their offensive style and McCoy’s athleticism.
And Florida’s goes back to Tebow’s struggles as a passer when teams know he has to pass.
So no, Gerhart and Moore do not “clearly have cake-walks.” [so maybe Moore does, but it's still not that clear cut] There’s more to football than stats people.
OverTheHill, that’s all opinion and conjecture.
What makes the SEC the best conference THIS YEAR? The fact that they have 3 ranked teams? (to the Big 12s 2? The Big 10s 4? The Big Easts 3? The ACCs 4? The Pac 10s 4? The Non-AQs 5?)
The fact that they play no tough OOC games?
Bama and Florida are good, yes. LSU lost to the only 2 good teams they played. The rest of the SEC is erratic, mediocre, and/or just plain bad.
I think the fact that Alabama has never had a Heisman winner
will make Ingram a sentimental favorite on the ballots of many voters. That’s not to take away from his being a great back,
and the leading rusher in the toughest conference in America.
Traditionally, this award has gone to a quarterback, but this
year may be an exception. If you choose the player who has
meant the most to his team, there is no doubt that Mark Ingram is the heart of Bama’s offense. Just ask South Carolina,
Old Miss, and Mississippi State!
TDK in Birmingham, AL
Slippy -
I said Moore and Gerhart have cakewalks COMPARED to Tebow and McCoy.
Regarding conference comparisons, these things normally are easier to judge at the end of the season, but Sagarin currently shows the SEC with 3 top 10 teams, the ACC with 2 and no one else with more than 1.
Teams currently in Sagarin’s top 50:
SEC…..10
Pac10….7
ACC……7
BigEast..6
Big12….6
Big10….4
Since you think the SEC is weak this year, which conferences do you think are better?
I know, I was just pointing out that there is much more to that stat than the defenses that they play.
I think the conference argument is ridiculous. We can conjecture all we want and each of us could come up with a great argument but they’re all flawed. I just don’t think the SEC is far and away the best. They’re the best at the top, yes. But the middle and bottom are not good. The Pac 10 doesn’t have the top 5 team, but they have 5 or 6 very capable teams. Cincinnati and Pittsburgh look good, but we really have no idea how good they are. Ohio State, Iowa, and Wisconsin are not the same teams they were in September, all remarkably improved.
I can go on. There’s not enough samples to crown anyone the king. Until every team starts playing 2 or 3 BCS OOC games every year we’ll never know.
While we’re bringing up Sagarin, why don’t we have a look at who his top conference is.
SandyMex, That is a good stat, but it is only good for comparing quarterbacks and their pass protection. Pass blocking is way different from run blocking. Every year, Marino had his LG and LT go to the Pro Bowl, and took the fewest sacks in the league. However, in his career, his O-line only paved the way for 2 runningbacks that averaged over 4 yards per carry (min 100 attempts).
[That said, there is no 1 stat that can adequately compare offensive line play. It is a combination of things. 50% (or more) of sacks can be attributed to the QB, and at times, a great RB can thrive even behind a weak offensive line ala Barry Sanders]
Although Tebow’s line has not been very good in pass protection, I have seen a lot of sacks where he had to eat the ball or try to scramble (and not make it to the line) because his recievers refuse to get open downfield. Not all sacks are because of line breakdown.
Steve — Really? Kellen Moore has better numbers than Case Keenum? Have you actually looked at the stats or are you just going by intuition?
Keenum leads the nation in passing, passing yards per game, total offense, total passing yards, TD passes, and points responsible for. Moore leads the nation in passing efficiency. That’s all.
http://web1.ncaa.org/mfb/natlRank.jsp?year=2009&div=IA&site=org
Their opponent strength is fairly even, in fact Houston’s SOS is a lot higher than Boise State’s. The only difference is in wins and losses and the two UH losses are on the defense. Keenum had great numbers in both losses.
Check your facts please.
HeismanPundit –
Thought you would like to have the link of the University of Houston’s Case Keenum for Heisman page.
http://www.uhcougars.com/casekeenum/
Thanks for all your hard work.
Amy,
I like how you said: “Moore leads the nation in passing efficiency. That’s all.” Good job discounting the statistic that is designed to encompass all the quarterbacks major stats. It is pretty telling. More telling about how well a QB is performing than his raw yardage. By the way, Moore’s rating is nearly 20 points higher than Keenum’s.
Here is a fact check:
Moore- 203/300 67%
Keenum- 358/514 69%
Moore- YDS/COMP 12.5
Keenum- YDS/COMP 11.7
Moore- YDS/ATT 8.5
Keenum- YDS/ATT 8.1
Moore- Throws a TD on 10.6% of his attempts.
Keenum- Throws a TD on 6% of his attempts.
Moore- 10.6/1 TD/INT ratio
Keenum- 5.1/1 TD/INT ratio
both ridiculously good BTW)
Moore- 91 strength of schedule rank (Sagarin)
Keenum- 93 strength of schedule rank (Sagarin)
Boise State- 10-0
Houston – 8-2
If you wanted stats, there you go.
NOBODY for Heisman!
I guess I forgot to put their raw TD-INT stats. Sorry.
Moore- 32-3
Keenum- 31-6
Roby -
Sacks/pass is just another data point, but I think it’s meaningful when trying to evaluate offensive lines. Pass blocking and run blocking are different, but it’s rare that you have an OL that’s good at pass blocking and poor at run blocking. You brought up the Dolphins as a possible example, but their offense was geared toward the pass. It’s a big leap to say that the lack of a big rusher was due to poor run blocking. It’s an even bigger leap to say more than 50% of sacks for any qb are the qb’s fault.
Sandymex,
I agree that some of the skills possessed by good pass blockers overlaps with those of good rush blockers. But I will stand by my point that 50% of sacks are the fault of the QB, no matter who is guarding him. Some guys are sack takers, and some guys are sack avoiders. Plain and simple.
Case in point.
Marino- routinely one of the least sacked QBs despite attempting more passes than 90% of QBs.
Manning- sacked only 8 times this season with 357 pass attempts. He plays behind an offensive line that is terrible by your logic. They are ranked 29th in rushing. Averaging 3.9 yards per carry.
Rob Johnson- Sacked 140 times with 804 career pass attempts. Thats a sack for like every 6 dropbacks. Just terrible. In his 4 years that he played in Buffalo (where he played 80% of his career snaps), the Bills were in the upper half of rushing offenses 3 times. In the top 10 twice. A solid offensive line by my estimation.
Elway- Been sacked more times than any other QB ever. Toward the end of his career he played with an O-line that churned out 1,000 runners almost without trying. Even then, his sack numbers didn’t significantly decrease.
First you limited yourself to NFL qbs who rarely run and spend their careers on one team (except for Johnson who never started a whole season for anybody). Let’s consider Kurt Warner, who went from 7.5 passes/sack in 04 to 16.3 passes/sack in 05. You’d say the majority of the change was due to Kurt Warner, while I’d say the change in OL had the biggest effect. But it’s silly to use an NFL model of behavior for college, especially for a dual-threat qb.
Further if you’re an NFL team with an OL problem you patch it with a free agent, a scout player or even a retired player. The best you can do if you’re a college team is get a true freshman to play, play your starters in different positions, or get a defensive lineman to switch to offense. Florida has been forced to do all three of these things.
Another measure OL strength is plays per TFL (tackles for loss). From best to worst:
Houston – 25.8 plays/TFL
Stanford – 20.8
Alabama – 15.3
Boise St – 14.5
Texas – 12.3
Clemson – 11.8
Florida – 11.3
This again shows that Tebow, Spiller and McCoy have played behind struggling offensive lines. Against Oregon, Boise State gave up a large number of TFLs, which explains their lower position. But this is consistent with Boise State having one of the best lines relative to the teams they normally face.
whatever…i think we can all agree that Tebow is not the most outstanding player in college football this year.
Spiller is the best overall player and deserves to be one of the top five for consideration. He’s something very special and can run like the wind. But as a Clemson graduate, I just might be a bit blinded by the Orange.
SPILLER HAS ACCOMPLISHED MORE THAN ANY OTHER PLAYER IN THE NATION. PERIOD
TEBOW & McCOY…THEIR O-LINE AND WR’S..WITH OUT THEM..THEY HAVE NOTHING. INGRAM, GREAT PLAYER..BUT STILL HAS NOTHING ON SPILLER. N E BODY WHO CAN’T SEE THAT..TAKE YOUR BLINDERS OFF MAN!
It’s over everyone – Colt McCoy won it on national TV last night. With McCoy nailing down the most wins by ANY starting quarterback EVER, not to mention being the undisputed character leader of an undefeated team and having incredible stats, it’s really impossible to NOT vote for him. Toby Gerhart? Give me a break. Mark Ingraham? He’s having a good year, so what? Tim Tebow – well just compare the stats.
Anyone who doesn’t vote for McCoy will carry around the guilt that they didn’t vote for the best quarterback in college football history, who will probably follow Roger Staubach into the NFL Hall of Fame. The voters know this, they just need some time to admit it to themselves. Once everyone gets past all this micro/nano analysis and see the big picture, The Heisman will have have Horns on it this year.