Archive | December, 2009

Heisman More Popular Than Ever

Last Saturday’s Heisman show on ESPN was the network’s highest-rated ever.

ESPN’s Heisman Trophy telecast (Saturday, Dec. 12, at 8 p.m. ET) averaged a 4.1 rating, 4,045,000 households and 5,990,000 viewers, marking  increases of 32% (vs. 3.1), 32% (vs. 3,058,000) and 44% (vs. 4,151,000), respectively, over last year.

The home designated market areas (DMA) of the schools that will square off in the Citi BCS National Championship game (No. 2 Texas vs. No. 1 Alabama on Thursday, Jan. 7, at 8 p.m. on ABC) posted the highest metered market ratings: Birmingham, the DMA of Alabama and Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram, averaged a 17.8 rating while Austin, DMA of Texas and Heisman Trophy finalist Colt McCoy, averaged a 10.6. It was ESPN’s highest-rated Heisman Trophy Presentation in both markets since 2003.

Comments { 0 }

HeismanPundit.com Watch List: 17 for 2010

Here is my early, early Heisman Watch list for 2010 (again, it’s my list of guys who have the best chance to actually win, not a list of how they will finish in the voting).  Some of these players are true darkhorses who nonetheless project well in the race due to who they play for and their career trajectory.

We’ll whittle this down as we get closer to next season:

(in no particular order!)

Jacquizz Rodgers, Oregon State–Rodgers is coming off a 1,377 yard, 21 touchdown, 74-reception season (with one game to go).  Has built up name recognition and his team has earned respect nationally, which should help his Heisman candidacy.

Jacory Harris, Miami–Struggled with interceptions as a sophomore but could make a big jump as a junior.  All the fundamentals–schedule, playing for a rising traditional power, name recognition–are in place for a Heisman run if he performs well.

Terrelle Pryor, Ohio State–Mega talent who will be a prime Heisman contender if he can put it all together.  Will Jim Tressel let him do his thing?

LaMichael James, Oregon–Pac-10′s freshman single-season rushing record holder (1,476 yards) plays in an exciting offense that piles up more yards on the ground than a car rented with an Orbitz promotion code, so look for an even bigger year as a sophomore.  Ducks will be highly rated and he’ll have plenty of opportunities to make a case.  Will miss first game due to suspension.

DeMarco Murray, Oklahoma–Murray has battled injuries but he’ll have one more year all to himself as Chris Brown has graduated.  The potential is there for a big season.

Kellen Moore, Boise State–The nation’s pass efficiency leader had an amazing 39 touchdown passes and just three picks in 2009.  Just a junior, his Heisman quest might be a three-year project.

Case Keenum, Houston–He’ll break the all-time NCAA passing mark set by Timmy Chang and that alone will keep him in the Heisman conversation.

Ryan Mallett, Arkansas–The SEC’s top quarterback threw 29 touchdown passes and just 7 picks as just a sophomore in 2009.  Imagine what he’ll do in year two leading Bobby Petrino’s high-octane offense!  He’s a potential first-pick in the draft who will mount a serious Heisman run in 2010.

Zach Collaros, Cincinnati–He showed that he could get it done while filling in for Tony Pike.  He threw for 1,434 yards with 10 touchdowns and just two picks with a rating of 195 as a sophomore.  He also rushed for 344 yards.  He should flower with a full year under center.

Jerrod Johnson, Texas A&M–Johnson had a great junior year with 28 touchdowns and just six picks.  He also rushed for 455 yards.  Like Mallett, he’s a future top NFL pick who could challenge for the Heisman if he can lead his team to new heights.

Evan Royster, Penn State–Had a solid junior year, rushing for 1,104 yards following a 1,276-yard sophomore effort.  Could be primed for a big senior season as Penn State returns most of its line.

John Clay, Wisonsin–He had 1,396 yards and 16 TDs as a sophomore and he’ll also have a mostly intact line back.  Badger backs get yards and he might be the next to challenge for the 2,000-yard mark.

Ryan Williams, Virginia Tech–He had a huge freshman year, rushing for 1,538 yards and 19 touchdowns.  If he can top that mark and then some in 2010–and the Hokies win the ACC–he’ll be a prime contender.

Josh Nesbitt, Georgia Tech–He rushed for 991 yards and 18 touchdowns and threw for 1,689 yards and 10 touchdowns.  Forget about Dwyer, he’s the guy that makes Tech go.

Wait!  Where’s Mark Ingram?  Hold on there, Tide fans.  It’s not that I don’t think he can’t get some Heisman support–he probably will–it’s just that I don’t think he can win it again.  Why?  Well, it’s my belief that there will never be another two-time Heisman winner.   Dont worry, Jason White, Matt Leinart, Tim Tebow and Sam Bradford all pretty much got the same treatment from me after winning the Heisman and returning the following season.

Comments { 45 }

The 2009 HP All-American Team–Defense

We did the offense on Tuesday, now for the All-American defensive squad:

Defensive End

1st team–Jerry Hughes, TCU; Brandon Graham, Michigan

2nd team–O’Brien Schofield, Wisconsin; Derrick Morgan, Georgia Tech

3rd team–Jeremy Beal, Oklahoma; Sergio Kindle, Texas

Notes: Hughes has been a terror off the edge for going on three years and he capped a fine career with an All-American season.  Graham was a one-man show for the Wolverines.

Defensive Tackle

1st team–Ndamukong Suh, Nebraska; Brian Price, UCLA

2nd team–Gerald McCoy, Oklahoma; LaMarr Houston, Texas

3rd team–Arthur Jones, Syracuse; Stephen Paea, Oregon State

Notes:  What more can be said about Suh, who finished fourth in the Heisman voting?  Price had an amazing 22.5 tackles for loss.

Outside Linebacker

1st team–Sean Weatherspoon, Missouri; Navarro Bowman, Penn State

2nd team–Rennie Curran, Georgia; Eric Norwood, South Carolina

3rd team–Akeem Ayers, UCLA; Mychal Sisson, Colorado State

Notes: Weatherspoon, the tackle machine, finishes his career with 399 tackles.  Bowman was a force for the Lions, notching 15.5 tackles for loss.

Inside Linebacker

1st team–Rolando McClain, Alabama

2nd team–Greg Jones, Michigan State

3rd team–Joe Pawelek, Baylor

Notes:  McClain, the Butkus winner, was the field general for the nation’s best defense.

Cornerback

1st team–Javier Arenas, Alabama; Joe Haden, Florida

2nd team–Perrish Cox, Oklahoma State; Brandon Harris, Miami

3rd team–Patrick Peterson, LSU; Trevin Wade, Arizona

Notes:  Arenas was all over the field for Alabama, with 12 tackles for loss, 3 interceptions and 5 sacks.   Joe Haden was a lockdown corner all year and will now go on to be a high NFL draft pick.

Free Safety

1st team–Rahim Moore, UCLA

2nd team–Deunta Williams, North Carolina

3rd team–Chad Jones, LSU

Notes: Moore was a playmaker extraordinaire for the Bruins, picking off nine passes in 12 games. 

Strong Safety

1st team–Earl Thomas, Texas

2nd team–Tyler Sash, Iowa

3rd team–Eric Berry, Tennessee

Notes: Thomas picked off eight passes and returned two for touchdowns.  He also had 5 tackles for loss and 10 pass deflections.

Comments { 0 }

The 2009 HP All-American Team–Offense

Now for the sixth edition of the very prestigious HP All-American squad.  First, the offense:

Quarterback

1st team–Case Keenum, Houston

2nd team–Jimmy Clausen, Notre Dame

3rd team–Colt McCoy, Texas

Note: Obviously a very difficult decision on this one, but I think Keenum’s overall numbers–5,410 yards, 43 touchdowns, 9 picks, 71% completion percentage–are too amazing to ignore.  Clausen had a brilliant season, too, while McCoy overcame the pressure of the spotlight to lead Texas to the title game.

Tailback

1st team–Toby Gerhart, Stanford

2nd team–Mark Ingram, Alabama

3rd team–Jacquizz Rodgers, Oregon State

Note: Gerhart was the most dominant and consistent tailback in the country, leading it in rushing yardage and touchdowns.  Ingram was at his best in big games, while Rodgers was the most versatile back in the country.

Fullback

1st team–Vince Murray, Navy

2nd team–Owen Marecic, Stanford

3rd team–Stanley Havili, USC

Note: At HP, I always pick an All-American fullback as the position exists on most rosters and therefore should be recognized as such.  Murray had a huge year for Navy, rushing for 925 yards and six touchdowns.  Marecic is simply an amazing blocker and he ploughed the way for Gerhart most of the time.  Havili excelled as a pass catcher and runner but was slowed some by injuries.

Wide Receiver

1st team–Golden Tate, Notre Dame; Danario Alexander, Missouri

2nd team–Jordan Shipley, Texas; Mardy Gilyard, Cincinnati

3rd team–James Cleveland, Houston; Dezmon Briscoe, Kansas

Note: Golden Tate was unstoppable all year, catching 93 passes for 1,496 yards and 15 touchdowns.  Alexander burst onto the scene with a monster season of 107 catches for 1,644 yards and 13 touchdowns.  Shipley had a great season and helped Texas get to the promised land, while Gilyard was a playmaker extraordinaire for Cincinnati.  Cleveland was Keenum’s main target while Briscoe was one of the few bright spots in an otherwise dismal Jayhawk campaign.

Tight End

1st team–Dennis Pitta, BYU

2nd team–Aaron Hernandez, Florida

3rd team–Kyle Rudolph, Notre Dame

Note:  Pitta was the best traditional tight end in the country, catching 56 balls for 766 yards and seven scores.  Hernandez constantly displayed his impressive physical gifts for the Gators while Rudolph physically dominated at times against opposing defenders.

Offensive Line Unit

Per HP tradition, we will not choose individual All-Americans on the offensive line.

We refuse to do so because, unlike other people who pick All-Americans, we admit that we have no idea who really are the best offensive linemen.

There are no individual stats to go by. Highlights rarely show what they do. We could go off of hearsay, but wouldn’t that be dishonest? What’s more, there are 585 starting offensive linemen in Division One. It’s almost impossible to have seen enough of them to know who is really the best.  Did anyone pick Baylor’s Jason Smith–the second pick in the draft–on their preseason team last year?  I don’t think so.  So, while other All-American teams choose linemen based almost solely on reputation, we will not.

However, we will choose the best line unit in the country, since this is a bit easier to quantify. That honor goes to Stanford, which led the nation in fewest tackles for losses allowed (39), was second in sacks allowed (7) and helped Cardinal backs go for 224 yards per game (11th nationally).  Second team honors went to Boise State, which averaged 194 yards on the ground while allowing a nation-leading five sacks all season.  Third team honors went to Nevada’s line, which helped the Wolfpack average 362 yards per game on the ground. 

1st team–Stanford

2nd team–Boise State

3rd team–Nevada

Comments { 28 }

The HeismanPundit.com Heisman Poll Review

My personal prediction for the Heisman was off, but the The HeismanPundit.com Heisman Poll–which was the most accurate of all the polls in 2008–looked pretty good in 2009, too, despite having to project an obviously close and unpredictable race.

Final HeismanPundit.com Heisman Poll, Dec. 7, 2009
1. Mark Ingram
2. Toby Gerhart
3. Colt McCoy
    Ndamukong Suh
5. Kellen Moore
6. Tim Tebow
    C.J. Spiller
8. Golden Tate
9. LaMichael James
10. Case Keenum
     Jeremiah Masoli

Actual Final Heisman Results
1. Mark Ingram
2. Toby Gerhart
3. Colt McCoy
4. Ndamukong Suh
5. Tim Tebow
6. C.J. Spiller
7. Kellen Moore
8. Case Keenum
9. Mardy Gilyard
10. Golden Tate

The first four in the HP poll and the final results are basically the same. The discrepancies come after that, with Moore fifth in the HP poll and seventh in the actual results, Tebow fifth in the actual but tied for sixth in the HP poll, Golden Tate eighth in the HP poll but 10th in the actual results and Case Keenum eighth in the actual results but 10th in the HP poll. Plus, the HP poll had no mention of Mardy Gilyard but did included LaMichael James and Jeremiah Masoli.

Past HeismanPundit.com Heisman Poll Results

2008
Projected: 1. Sam Bradford 2. Tim Tebow 3. Colt McCoy 4. Graham Harrell 5. Michael Crabtree
Actual: 1. Sam Bradford 2. Colt McCoy 3. Tim Tebow 4. Graham Harrell 5. Michael Crabtree

2007
Projected: 1. Tim Tebow 2. Darren McFadden 3. Colt Brennan 4. Chase Daniel 5. Dennis Dixon
Actual: 1. Tim Tebow 2. Darren McFadden 3. Colt Brennan 4. Chase Daniel 5. Dennis Dixon

Comments { 3 }

Wrapping it all up

The race for the 2009 Heisman Trophy was a seminal one in the award’s history.

What started out as a battle royale between three star quarterbacks ended up as the tighest race ever between two running backs who were mere afterthoughts heading into the season.

Many of the old rules that govern the Heisman did not apply this year and I attribute that to the new technology that is changing the face of media.  This was the first Heisman race where Twitter, Facebook, blogging, etc., played a major role.  Information was flying fast and furious and it seemed like every miscue or good play was chopped up, spit out and distributed to a new generation of Heisman voters who were plugged in like never before.

For the first time, Heisman voters ignored both class status and statistics in handing out this award.  Mark Ingram rushed for fewer yards per game (119) than any Heisman-winning back in the two-platoon (post-1963) era.  His total rushing yards were the fewest by any winner since 1975.  For the first time, the Heisman-winning running back’s rushing yardage total was eclipsed by the nation’s leading receiver’s yardage total.  What’s more, Ingram won the Heisman just 2,270 rushing yards into his career, again, the fewest in the two-platoon era. 

How is it that a back with next-to-zero name recognition with voters heading into the season could still win the Heisman despite a season that was unimpressive when compared to past Heisman standards?

A few factors were key.  First and most obvious, Ingram played for the nation’s top-ranked team.  Alabama, while having never won a Heisman, was a traditional power and respected program.  The notion that such a storied tradition had never won a Heisman ended up being a boon to Ingram’s campaign.  Second, Ingram put up good numbers in big games against teams that were perceived as being good.  He rushed for 150 yards against Virginia Tech, 172 against Mississippi, 144 against LSU and 113 against Florida.  These were the games that stood out most to voters.  While his overall numbers weren’t great, voters knew he was great because of how he played in these games.  As a result, they were willing to forgive his good, though not spectacular, numbers.  Again, the abundance and availability of information that flowed enabled voters to see all the nuances in Ingram’s production.     Third, voters applied that same nuance to other contenders and found them lacking.  Colt McCoy–a slam-dunk winner in most Heisman years–had good overall numbers, but voters didn’t like how he played in big games.  They didn’t like that Stanford had four losses, thus hurting Toby Gerhart.  And they couldn’t quite wrap their heads around the notion of a defensive tackle, Ndamukong Suh, winning the award.     Lastly, after years of quarterback dominance, it appeared that voters were intent on picking a non-quarterback for the Heisman.  Quarterbacks received a grand total of 258 first-place votes in this race, while non-QBs received 640.

Based on the history of the Heisman, I thought that McCoy had the best shot of winning.  As it turned out, he didn’t finish as far back as some had predicted and if you take away that huge game by Suh, he’s the likely winner.  But, clearly, some of the rules have changed and that’s going to lead to more unpredictable races in the future.  I think many of the old barriers will now fall–I can now see a freshman or a non-skill player winning a Heisman one day (I’m pretty sure that Adrian Peterson’s freshman season would’ve won it had he played this year).  Is a revision to the Heismandments now necessary?  Absolutely.  Most will remain, but a few are going to need some extra tweaking to reflect the current realities of the Heisman environment.

So this year saw perhaps the most unlikely winner in Heisman history, the product of the closest race in Heisman history.  Many saw this as a lackluster Heisman race, but I think it portends well for future seasons.  If this year is any guideline, then 2010 should be a doozy.

Comments { 16 }

Voting Wrap Up

Here is the breakdown of the regions:

Northeast
Mark Ingram, 238
Toby Gerhart, 219
Colt McCoy, 179
Ndamukong Suh, 104
Tim Tebow, 83

This was a mystery region going in and it ended up mirroring the final vote.

Mid-Atlantic
Mark Ingram, 222
Toby Gerhart, 187
Colt McCoy, 187
Ndamukong Suh, 105
C.J. Spiller, 79
Tim Tebow, 57

This region was somewhat surprising.  Colt McCoy finished much better than expected and C.J. Spiller was not much of a factor, which was mildly surprising.

South
Mark Ingram, 254
Colt McCoy, 176
Toby Gerhart, 165
Ndamukong Suh, 113
Tim Tebow, 106

The South’s vote was surprising in that Tebow came in fifth and McCoy took second.

Southwest
Ndamukong Suh, 254
Colt McCoy, 216
Mark Ingram, 214
Toby Gerhart, 180
Tim Tebow, 33

This ended up being the key region in the vote.  McCoy went from 313 points last year to 216 this year, thanks to Suh’s dominance.  Suh basically was the wildcard in the race who cost McCoy the Heisman.  Mark Ingram trailed McCoy by just two points here and beat out Gerhart by 34 points.  Reverse that and we have a different Heisman winner.

Midwest
Mark Ingram, 223
Toby Gerhart, 206
Colt McCoy, 173
Ndamukong Suh, 146
Tim Tebow, 45

As expected, Ingram and Gerhart were strong here.  Ingram, because he’s from Michigan and Gerhart due to his performance against Notre Dame.

Far West
Toby Gerhart, 319
Colt McCoy, 214
Mark Ingram, 153
Ndamukong Suh, 93
Tim Tebow, 66

Gerhart piled up big points here as predicted, but clearly not enough to win.

First place votes–Second Place Votes–Third Place Votes—-Total Points
1. Mark Ingram, 227–236–151—-1,304
2. Toby Gerhart, 222–225–160—-1,276
3. Colt McCoy, 203–188–160—-1,145
4. Ndamukong Suh, 161–105–122—-815
5. Tim Tebow, 43–70–121—-390
6. C.J. Spiller, 26–31–83—-223
7. Kellen Moore, 10–20–30—-100
8. Case Keenum, 2–9–13—-37
9. Mardy Gilyard, 2–2–13—-23
10. Golden Tate, 2–3–9—-21

The top eight were just what I predicted in my final Heisman Watch.  In the end, Ingram’s win could be best attributed to his appearing on the most ballots (68%), compared to Gerhart (67%) and McCoy (61%).

Comments { 0 }