The Heisman Ain’t the Only Poor Predictor

One of the knocks on the Heisman is that the winners don’t always pan out in the pros.  Of course, the Trophy has never claimed to be a predictor of future football success, only a recognition of current college excellence.

But if you want to see at a list that has, over time, consistently failed to predict future fortunes, look no further than USA Today’s annual All-American team (H/T Bruce Feldman).   You can see 20 years of USA Today All-Americans here.

Just look at the quarterbacks on the list.  John Paye.  Vince Sutton.  Todd Ellis.  Mickey Joseph.  It’s not exactly a who’s who of NFL, much less college, talent.

Point being, even those who are paid to predict have a hard time of it.

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Chris Huston, A.K.A. ‘The Heisman Pundit‘, is a Heisman voter and the creator and publisher of Heismanpundit.com, a site dedicated to analysis of the Heisman Trophy and college football. Dubbed “the foremost authority on the Heisman” by Sports Illustrated, HP is regularly quoted or cited during football season in newspapers across the country. He is also a regular contributor on sports talk radio and television.

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6 Responses to The Heisman Ain’t the Only Poor Predictor

  1. Ed Newman March 25, 2010 at 8:18 am #

    Yes predicting NFL success from HIGH SCHOOL All America lists is very difficult, but I do notice some very good pros on almost all the lists.

    What I also noticed are the lists are woefully inaccurate. Antrel Rolle, TJ Duckett, Ronald Curry etc., etc. are all listed as never playing an NFL game. Tough to judge an inaccurate source as a predictor of anything.

  2. HP March 26, 2010 at 8:30 pm #

    Ed,the list only goes up to 2002, so some of the guys at the time were still in college and hence had not yet played in the NFL.

  3. Roby March 28, 2010 at 9:40 pm #

    An interesting inclusion was Joe Mauer. He was QB on the 2000 team. He has had some professional success.

  4. V. Money April 10, 2010 at 6:00 pm #

    Then again, the award has had a solid group of guys who went on to pro success, including NFL HOFers in Barry Sanders, Tony Dorsett, and Roger Staubach. Carson Palmer might one day get to that mark. There’s certainly a higher proportion of Heisman guys who go on to success than the average NFL player.

  5. Crawforce April 12, 2010 at 7:02 pm #

    Im feeling an update soon

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