One of the knocks on the Heisman is that the winners don’t always pan out in the pros. Of course, the Trophy has never claimed to be a predictor of future football success, only a recognition of current college excellence.
But if you want to see at a list that has, over time, consistently failed to predict future fortunes, look no further than USA Today’s annual All-American team (H/T Bruce Feldman). You can see 20 years of USA Today All-Americans here.
Just look at the quarterbacks on the list. John Paye. Vince Sutton. Todd Ellis. Mickey Joseph. It’s not exactly a who’s who of NFL, much less college, talent.
Point being, even those who are paid to predict have a hard time of it.
Yes predicting NFL success from HIGH SCHOOL All America lists is very difficult, but I do notice some very good pros on almost all the lists.
What I also noticed are the lists are woefully inaccurate. Antrel Rolle, TJ Duckett, Ronald Curry etc., etc. are all listed as never playing an NFL game. Tough to judge an inaccurate source as a predictor of anything.
Ed,the list only goes up to 2002, so some of the guys at the time were still in college and hence had not yet played in the NFL.
An interesting inclusion was Joe Mauer. He was QB on the 2000 team. He has had some professional success.
Then again, the award has had a solid group of guys who went on to pro success, including NFL HOFers in Barry Sanders, Tony Dorsett, and Roger Staubach. Carson Palmer might one day get to that mark. There’s certainly a higher proportion of Heisman guys who go on to success than the average NFL player.
Im feeling an update soon