I think it’s only a matter of time before an Auburn quarterback has a monster season in Gus Malzahn’s offense. It looks like Cameron Newton could be that guy in 2010. Here’s a good read on him from Andy Staples of Sports Illustrated.
In a year without a cut-and-dried preseason Heisman favorite, Newton has to be considered as a possible dark horse candidate if his development in Auburn’s offense goes smoothly.
This compilation was pretty popular and created a lot of discussion last year, so I thought I’d bring it back again. Keep in mind that I’m not necessarily saying these guys are bad coaches (though in some cases it is true). I’m just highlighting the coaches who, in my opinion, do not currently live up to the hype:
1. Steve Spurrier–Look at early season previews and South Carolina is on the list of potential breakout teams…again. Hasn’t it been five or six years in a row now that the Gamecocks were supposed to be a big deal? No doubt, much of this is residual respect for Spurrier, an offensive guy who hasn’t had very good offenses for SC. The media loves him because he is a good quote and grimaces on the sideline, but what’s he done lately?
2. Les Miles–He is living proof that pretty much any coach can win a national title if given the right situation. His 2007 LSU team was loaded but still lost twice and needed some crazy circumstances to win it all. He’s a questionable game manager and seems to do less with more every year. His teams appear able to beat anyone, or lose to anyone. Yet, he is somehow considered an asset in the SEC coaching fraternity because he won that one title. Well, so did Phil Fulmer….and what’s he doing now?
3. Lane Kiffin–Rarely has more been written about someone who has done so little. His bio from USC’s website reads like a North Korean propaganda pamphlet: “First-year USC head football coach Lane Kiffin is regarded as one of the game’s brightest young coaches…He is known for his high football IQ, as well as for being a vibrant leader and a master recruiter.” Who, exactly, regards him as one of the game’s bright young coaches? I’ll reserve that title for guys like Chris Peterson, Gus Malzahn and Kevin Sumlin, thanks.
4. Rich Rodriguez–Here’s a coach who used to be in the ‘underrated’ category. But his tenure so far at Michigan feels like it has been completely bungled. Did he suddenly forget how to coach, or did the Michigan ‘culture’ push back too hard when he came to Ann Arbor? Whatever the case, he may not get out of this one with his reputation intact.
5. Jim Tressel–Oh, calm down. I know he’s a solid coach who sometimes finds the groove and gets his team to elite levels. But that stubborn belief in his way of doing things–especially his lack of imagination on offense–has probably cost him a chance at one or two more national titles.
6. Pat Hill–His early-decade swagger about playing anyone, anywhere, anytime hasn’t resulted in this program actually winning many of those ‘prove it’ games. But Hill still gets credit for being a balls-out coach. Scheduling against elite teams and losing to them doesn’t mean a whole lot in my book.
7. Jeff Tedford–He’s done very well by Cal standards, but at one time the idea was that he was a genius who would be a thorn in the side of USC. Instead, his program has been passed up by Oregon as the Pac-10′s No. 2, with Oregon State and Stanford nipping at his heels for No. 3. If only he could recruit and develop quarterbacks, he wouldn’t be in this situation.
8. Mark Richt–He seems like a nice guy, but Georgia fans must wonder how the Bulldogs could have the first pick in the draft (Matt Stafford) and the first running back taken (Knowshon Moreno) on the same team in 2007 and 2008 and come away without a national title. If he can’t win it all with those guys, when will he win it?
9. Ralph Friedgen–Things have been rough for the Terps since winning 31 games from 2001-2003. I’m not sure he would be so respected these days if he were thin…we seem to like our portly coaches, don’t we?
10. Joe Paterno–JoePa makes the list again only because he’s not really coaching this team anymore. He’s a figure head who gets most of the credit for the program’s success, but it is his assistants (primarily Tom Bradley) who get the job done.
Summer is just about here, so that means it’s time to start our preseason rankings here at HP. First, the top 10 receivers for 2010:
1. Michael Floyd, Notre Dame–When healthy, he’s the most dominant receiver in college football. He played about half the season in 2009 and still had 44 catches for 795 yards and nine touchdowns–and this was with Golden Tate piling up his stats, too. Floyd displays a remarkable combination of size, speed, hands, jumping ability and football intelligence. If he can avoid the injuries that have plagued him thus far, he’ll have a dazzling season.
2. A.J. Green, Georgia–Another top-flight talent slowed by injuries in 2009, Green is nonetheless coming off a 53-catch, 808-yard, six-touchdown season. Like Floyd, he’s a big target who can go up and get the ball and also run with it after the catch. I think he’ll benefit from Aaron Murray at quarterback and have a huge season for the Dawgs.
3. Alshon Jeffrey, South Carolina–Jeffrey came on like gangbusters the last half of his true freshman season, finishing with 46 catches for 763 yards and six touchdowns despite not putting up much in the way of stats through the first five games. He’s a big, physical receiver who finds a way to get open while displaying a knack for making the tough catch in traffic. He should pick up where he left off and become one of the best receivers in the country in 2010.
4. Julio Jones, Alabama–Jones has yet to produce to his talent level. Due to the style of offense played by the Tide, he may never get that chance. But it’s hard to ignore the skill he brings to the table: Size, Speed, Hands, Strength. This should be the year he puts it all together. If he does, look out!
5. James Rodgers, Oregon State–The first four receivers on this list are all over 6-3, but Rodgers is a smurf at just 5-7 and 185 pounds. He’s the ultimate do-it-all type, catching 91 balls for 1,034 yards and nine touchdowns, while adding 303 rushing yards and another 991 return yards. The Pac-10 will be excited when this speed-demon finally graduates.
6. Ryan Broyles, Oklahoma–As a 2009 sophomore, Broyles helped hold things together for the Sooners, catching 89 balls for 1,120 yards and 15 touchdowns. Now Landry Jones has a year under his belt and, as a result, I expect even more from Broyles in 2010. He’s not the biggest or fastest guy out there, but he’s a real gamer who always seems to be open.
7. DeVier Posey, Ohio State–Posey emerged as Terrelle Pryor’s go-to guy as a 2009 sophomore, catching 60 passes for 828 yards and eight touchdowns. If Pryor keeps progressing, Posey should benefit and that means a huge junior season for the 6-3 wide out.
8. James Cleveland, Houston–Cleveland piled up crazy numbers as Case Keenum’s No. 1 target, catching 104 passes for 1,214 yards and 14 touchdowns while missing two full games. Don’t be fooled by the fact he plays in a pass-happy attack–Cleveland is a high-level talent who would shine in any system.
9. Jonathan Baldwin, Pittsburgh–Baldwin built upon the promise he showed as a freshman, catching 57 passes for 1,111 yards and eight touchdowns. He had seven 100-yard games and averaged nearly 20 yards per catch. Whoever replaces Bill Stull at quarterback will have a great player to throw to.
10. Darvin Adams, Auburn–Adams tore up the vaunted Alabama secondary last year, part of a breakout sophomore season that saw him catch 60 passes for 997 yards and 10 touchdowns. Year two of Gus Malzahn’s system–and more talent at quarterback–can only mean Adams increases his production and establishes himself as one of the best receivers around.
Others To Watch: Armon Binns, Cincinnati; Marquis Maze, Alabama; Tandon Doss, Indiana; Jarrett Boykin, Virginia Tech; Nelson Rosario, UCLA; Marquise Goodwin, Texas; Joe Adams, Arkansas; Vidal Hazelton, Cincinnati; Austin Pettis, Boise State; LaRon Byrd, Miami; Nick Toon, Wisonsin
—Mark Ingram will be honored by his hometown of Flint, Mich. on Saturday.
—Tony Barhart wonders if Reggie Bush should lose his Heisman if found to be ineligible in 2005.
—ESPN’s Heather Dinnich scouts the Heisman competition.
—Christian Ponder a bonafide Heisman candidate? I’m not sold yet, but this guy is.
—Matt Hayes looks at the top defensive Heisman candidates for 2010. (Not gonna happen)
—1997 Heisman winner Charles Woodson expects his alma mater to beat Ohio State, get to a bowl.
—1972 winner Johnny Rodgers promotes ‘no texting while driving’.
—Two former Heisman runners up are now in the Vikings’ backfield.
—Tim Tebow says he has turned down seven-figure endorsement deals.
—The Golden Boy credits Vince Lombardi for salvaging his career.
And now, the Heisman pic of the day:
1960 winner, Joe Bellino of Navy. It’s the 50th anniversary of his Heisman win.
My surprise teams list for 2009 scored some direct hits (Alabama, Arkansas, Stanford) and some ugly misses (Illinois, Michigan). Here are my surprise teams for 2010. They aren’t necessarily title contenders, but these squads should do better than most people expect:
Auburn–You don’t see Auburn on too many preseason top 25 lists. But the Tigers went 8-5 last year with Chris Todd at quarterback, which is a testament to the wizardry of OC Gus Malzahn. I see incoming JC star and former Gator Cam Newton as a big upgrade at that spot, plus freshman running back Michael Dyer should make a major impact.
Cincinnati–Lose Tony Pike, Mardy Gilyard and Brian Kelly? No problem. Just plug in Zach Collaros (a budding star), Vidal Hazelton and Butch Jones and I don’t think they’ll skip much of a beat. Will the Bearcats go undefeated? Probably not, but I think most people are expecting more dropoff than what will actually occur.
Indiana–The Hoosiers won’t set the world on fire, but I think they could get to 7 or 8 wins and compete in a lot more of their games, which for them would be a huge improvement. I look for QB Ben Chappell to make some major strides. This could be a stretch, but I’m ready to stick my neck out…it’s only May!
Stanford–Some of you might’ve arched an eyebrow when I put the Cardinal 10th in my post-spring poll. The conventional wisdom out there is that losing Toby Gerhart will set Stanford back a bit. However, I’m a big believer in Jim Harbaugh as a coach and I think the Cardinal are in position to challenge for the Pac-10 title. Andrew Luck is the best passer in the conference and there is a stable of talented backs looking to step in for last year’s Heisman runner up. This is a program with a tough, physical mentality and enough first-level talent to play with anyone. Now, if injuries hit….
Georgia–The consensus has the Bulldogs in the middle of the SEC pack at best. But I like Georgia to surprise and make a serious run at the SEC East title. New quarterback Aaron Murray is a real gamer and he’s got some incredible targets to throw to in A.J. Green and Orson Charles. The defense is going to a 3-4, which is better suited for a schedule filled with spread teams.
Mississippi State–Can three teams in the SEC be all that improved without knocking each other off and hurting this prediction? (Auburn, UGA and MSU all play each other) Well, it may not show up much in the records, but I do like what Dan Mullen is doing in Starksville. I think the Bulldogs will move from 5-7 to 6-6 or 7-5, but will end up better than their final record indicates.
Notre Dame–I have a lot of faith in Brian Kelly’s ability to coach up a roster. And the Irish have some real weapons in place, including the nation’s best wide receiver (Michael Floyd) and tight end (Kyle Rudolph). The defense returns eight starters and the schedule is more than manageable. I see at least nine wins for the Irish.
Temple–The Owls have won 10 games only once in their history (1979), but they’ll have a chance to do so this year behind super soph tailback Bernard Pierce, who put up 1,361 yards as a frosh. Could Temple give Penn State trouble in game 3?
Miami–People think Miami is going to be good this year, but I think the ’Canes are a dark horse national title contender. Jacory Harris is a legit Heisman candidate and there is a bevy of quality running backs available for him to hand off to. More importantly, it’s year two of OC Mark Whipple’s system, which helped the ‘Canes make huge strides last season. I’m also impressed by such talents on defense as Allen Bailey, Olivier Vernon, Vaughn Telemaque and Brandon Harris. The schedule is brutal early, but if Miami can emerge from the first five games unscathed, I think things will end well for this team.
Honorable Mention: Oregon State; Baylor; South Florida; Michigan State; SMU
Word got out last year that the WAC hired a PR firm to lobby for a BCS berth for Boise State. Then we heard that the BCS itself hired Ari Fleischer’s PR firm to improve that organization’s image (how’s that working out?).
Now, the Pac-10 has brought in Hollywood’s CAA to help the conference become “more contemporary and reflect the influential markets in which it has schools.” (Hat tip: The Wiz)
First off, an organization should never publicly announce it is hiring an entity to improve its brand or image. I understand it is not always possible to keep this kind of information under wraps, but once it becomes common knowledge, any ensuing campaign is then diluted somewhat since the target of that campaign is now very aware it is being spun. This can result in the effort backfiring, especially when applied to something like the raging, glorious mess that is college football. If you are going to try to influence the only major sport where media and public opinion is crucial to success, you’d better be on your game.
Second, I think it’s a dumb idea in the first place for college football conferences, organizations and teams to hire firms with no background in the sport and no sense of perspective on the issues involved. This is how we end up with piped in rap music at football games and cheesy marketing campaigns more appropriate to pro wrestling and it’s second cousin, the NFL. Really, what does CAA or Ari Fleischer know about college football?
If you are going to hire a PR hack, make sure that no one knows you are hiring the PR hack and, above all, make sure that PR hack has a clue.
Who should they hire?
Well, gentlemen, I’m available.
We are in a new Heisman era, as the last three winners have all been sophomores.
Let’s assume, for the sake of argument, that the trend continues. If we were to look at the pool of available sophs, which one stands the best chance of winning?
The best way to look at it is to break down the sophomores into three groups:
1. Second year players who have already established themselves as stars in college football thanks to outstanding freshman seasons.
In this group, I’d include the following players:
2. Players who didn’t go crazy as freshmen, but who built up some name recognition and will now start for high-profile teams or traditional powers, making them potential contenders in the event of a breakthrough sophomore season.
In this second group, I would include these players:
3. Players on high profile teams or traditional powers who didn’t make much of an impact (if any) as freshmen, but who could be primed to make a splash in year two. These are the least likely sophomores to contend for the Heisman.
In this third group, I’d list:
I have yet to make my overall preseason list, but if I had to rank just these sophomores alone, it would look like this:
1. Ryan Williams, Virginia Tech
2. Dion Lewis, Pittsburgh
3. Garrett Gilbert, Texas
4. Matt Barkley, USC
5. Tate Forcier, Michigan
6. Trent Richardson, Alabama
7. Landry Jones, Oklahoma
8. Andrew Luck, Stanford
9. LaMichael James, Oregon
10. Tre’ Newton, Texas
11. Jermie Calhoun, Oklahoma
12. Jamaal Berry, Ohio State
13. Mike Gillislee, Florida
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