This list shows how the last 20 Heisman winners fared statistically and where they placed in the top 10 of the Heisman vote the year before they won the trophy.
Noteworthy is that only five of the last 20 winners finished in the top 10 in the voting the year before they won.
Equally noteworthy, however, is that the five who did place captured the trophy the following year by a gigantic average of 987 points, which is a testament to the benefits of the Heisman electorate getting familiarized with a player as early as possible.
The twelve quarterbacks who won averaged 2,498 passing yards and 21 TD passes the year before, while the six running backs averaged 1,223 yards and 15 scores.
Jason White’s season before winning was the least productive (through no fault of his own). The hard-luck quarterback tore his knee in game two of the 2002 season and was lost for the year.
The honors for best season the year before winning probably should go to Ricky Williams, though arguments could be made on behalf of Matt Leinart, Sam Bradford, Danny Wuerffel and Ty Detmer as well.
Now, the list:
Mark Ingram: 728 yards, 12 touchdowns in 2008 (did not place in vote)
Sam Bradford: 3,121 yards, 36 TDs in 2007 (did not place in vote)
Tim Tebow: 358 passing yards, 5 TDs, 1 interception, 469 rushing yards, 8 TDs in 2006 (did not place in vote)
Troy Smith: 2,282 passing yards, 16 TDs, 611 rushing yards, 11 TDs in 2005 (did not place in vote)
Reggie Bush: 908 rushing yards, 6 TDs, 2,330 all-purpose yards, 15 total TDs in 2004 (finished 5th in vote)
Matt Leinart: 3,556 yards, 38 TDs in 2003 (finished 6th in vote)
Jason White: 181 yards, 1 TD in 2002 (did not place in vote)
Carson Palmer: 2,717 yards, 13 TDs in 2001 (did not place in vote)
Eric Crouch: 1,101 passing yards, 11 TDs, 971 rushing yards, 20 TDs in 2000 (did not place in vote)
Chris Weinke: 3,103 passing yards, 25 TDs in 1999 (did not place in vote)
Ron Dayne: 1,525 yards, 15 TDs in 1998 (did not place in vote)
Ricky Williams: 1,893 yards, 25 TDs in 1997 (finished 5th in vote)
Charles Woodson: 63 tackles, 5 interceptions, 13 rec., 164 yards in 1996 (did not place in vote)
Danny Wuerffel: 3,266 yards, 32 TDs in 1995 (finished 3rd in voting)
Eddie George: 1,442 yards, 12 TDs in 1994 (did not place in vote)
Rashaan Salaam: 844 yards, 8 TDs in 1993 (did not place in vote)
Charlie Ward: 2,647 yards, 22 TDs in 1992 (finished 6th in vote)
Gino Toretta: 3,095 yards, 19 TDs in 1991 (did not place in vote)
Desmond Howard: 63 catches, 1,025 yards, 12 TDs in 1990 (did not place in vote)
Ty Detmer: 4,560 yards, 32 TDs in 1989 (did not place in vote)
Simply a great list. Simple, effective and fun concepts like this are the reason I chose to join the Heisman Pundit blog.
I would definitely state Ricky Williams’ case for the best previous year as well. Great list and great analysis.
“Noteworthy is that only five of the last 20 winners finished in the top 10 in the voting the year before they won.
Equally noteworthy, however, is that the five who did place captured the trophy the following year by a gigantic average of 987 points, which is a testament to the benefits of the Heisman electorate getting familiarized with a player as early as possible.”
I’m not sure I buy your testament. If 15 of the last 20 didn’t place the year before it leads me to the conclusion that getting name recognition is less important that we believe.
Only 5 of 200 players who made the cut the year prior won the award the following year. These were the top players! Granted I don’t know how many of the 200 didn’t come back to school the following year, but it seems like the number should be much higher than 25% unless we are overrating the value of name recognition. Or at least name recognition as measured by Heisman voting.
Ed, name recognition is manifested in more ways than in Heisman finishes. Sam Bradford did not finish in the vote as a frosh, but he was a known quantity thanks to leading the nation in passing efficiency and playing for OU. Chris Weinke was the 28-year-old QB for the team that won the national title the year he didn’t get a vote. It’s clear, though, that finishing in the Heisman top 10 gives you some extra oomph heading into the following year.
Ed Newman, I will take the opposing expectation on this. I’d be surprised if 25% of Heisman finishers did return the following year. I’m not doing the research, either, but it seems like every year that you leave at the soonest possible time for the NFL. On a related note, it seems that the rise in popularity/availability of “recruiting news” is going to end up helping a true frosh win the award before very long. I’m starting my Storm Johnson 4 Heisman campaign today!
Sorry for the poor wording up there. More players seem to leave now at the earliest possibility of getting drafted than ever before. This effect seems to accelerate every year.
HP,
Your point is what I meant by “at least name recognition as measured by Heisman voting.”
HP,
How about doing looking at the AP All American Teams as a predictor of the subsequent Heisman?
That wouldn’t help much either. Only 5 of the 20 listed here made the AP All-American team the year before.
Thanks for checking.