Archive | September, 2010

Picking This Week’s Games

By on September 30, 2010 in Uncategorized

Another week, another 6-4 record against the spread.  I was a just couple points away from being 8-2.  Over the last three weeks I am 18-12 (.600) and am 21-18-1 (.538) overall on the year.  So, with that in mind, here are the 10 games this week I think are the best to play against the line, odds courtesy of DocSports:

Oklahoma State (-3) vs. Texas A&M–The trio of Weeden, Hunter and Blackmon fire on all cylinders and the Cowboys take out the Aggies in a fun-filled offensive shootout.

Oklahoma State 45, Texas A&M 35

NC State (+4) vs. Virginia Tech–The Wolfpack are on a roll and they have the Hokies at home.  Another fine game for Russell Wilson and NC State wins outright.

NC State 27, Va. Tech 23

Kentucky (+3) at Mississippi–Even thought the Wildcats were blown out by Florida last week, I still saw some signs of life.  I think they’ll put it all together against a very inconsistent Ole Miss squad.

Kentucky 20, Ole Miss 17

Ohio State (-17) at Illinois–The last go-around for the Zookster against Ohio State gets ugly early.  Terrelle Pyor has another big day and the Buckeyes roll.

Ohio State 38, Illinois 10

Georgia (-4.5) at Colorado–Too many athletes for Colorado to handle and now A.J. Green is back for the Bulldogs.  He gets over 100 yards receiving and Georgia notches a comfortable win.

Georgia 28, Colorado 17

Stanford (+6.5) at Oregon–I think this one will be close and possibly down to the wire.  Oregon might be too fast for the Cardinal, but Stanford is tougher and they have Andrew Luck to hold things together.  The Ducks squeak by thanks to a late LaMichael James scoring run.

Oregon 35, Stanford 31

Florida International (+17) at Pittsburgh–Not many have noticed how tough FIU has been playing against BCS competition these past three weeks.  I think they’ll get into another tough, but ultimately losing, tussle with Pitt.

Pittburgh 27, FIU 17

Auburn (-35) vs. Louisiana-Monroe–This game should look like a track meet for the Auburn offense.  Lots of big runs by Newton, Dyer and McCalebb and the Tigers romp.

Auburn 56, ULM 17

Iowa (-7) vs. Penn State–I haven’t been impressed by the Nittany Lions this year.  There are still some kinks to be worked out on offense and the defense isn’t yet strong enough to carry this team.  This one’s in Iowa and the Hawkeyes take care of business.

Iowa 24, Penn State 14

Alabama vs. Florida UNDER (48 points)–I think Alabama will handle Florida, but I don’t think we’ll see an offensive outburst here.  The Tide will harrass John Brantley all day and Greg McElroy might throw a couple more picks, causing both teams to play it safe.

Alabama 20, Florida 12

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Heisman Pic of the Day

By on September 29, 2010 in Heisman History

He won’t win it, but this is a sweet pic of Patrick Peterson nonetheless:

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5 Thoughts On A Wednesday

By on September 29, 2010 in General CFB

This, that and the other thing…

—I think it’s wonderful that LSU is pushing Patrick Peterson for the Heisman.  He’s a great player and he clearly wants the trophy, which is always nice to see.  But let’s not pretend he has a chance to actually win this thing.  CBSSportsline recently wrote that Peterson is ‘the most dynamic player in college football since Charles Woodson’.  My, we have short memories, don’t we?  The other thing that people tend to ignore is that Woodson won his Heisman because he played offense in addition to returning punts and playing defense.  Furthermore, he starred for a traditional Heisman power that finished undefeated and won the national championship.  He also benefited from the media’s fatigue over Peyton Manning.  So there were some very unique circmstances that led to Woodson winning.  I don’t think the scenarios in place today will do much to boost Peterson’s hopes.

—The media is equally off the mark when it comes to Mark Ingram’s chances of winning.  The defending Heisman winner is definitely back in the race, but only to the extent that he can influence the outcome rather than actually win it.  How soon people forget how close he came to not even winning the Heisman last year, when a very specific set of circumstances worked in his favor, namely: (1) General sympathy for the idea of an Alabama player finally winning the trophy (2) A general perception that the consensus preseason favorites had been somewhat lackluster in their performances (3) Alabama crushing an undefeated, Tebow-led Florida team in the SEC title game and (4) Ndamukong Suh draining votes from Colt McCoy in his home region, costing the Texas quarterback the Heisman.  Even with all that, Ingram won by the closest margin in Heisman history over a running back from an 8-4 school renowned for nerdery.  And now he has missed the first two games of this season.  Despite how great he is as a player, this goes to my point that there is just so much that has to go right to win the Heisman even once.  For it to all fall into place a second time…is wishful thinking.

—I’ve also seen stories that suggest Denard Robinson’s Heisman hopes will falter because Michigan just isn’t that good.  But the model for Robinson’s run is Tim Tebow, not Eric Crouch.  The Florida Gators of 2007 were hardly a title contender.  They had real problems on defense and Tebow was perceived as a one-man show. But when you are a one-man show, you don’t get blamed for woeful displays by your defense. On the contrary, you get more credit because the resulting pressure to produce on offense is even greater and when you win you are seen as having bucked the odds.  In the end, Tebow won the Heisman despite not playing for a great team because he put up extraordinary individual numbers that blew away any argument against his candidacy.  Provided he stays healthy and keeps producing, this will be the same justification for Robinson’s trophy run.  Should he rush for 2,000 yards (or perhaps a bit less, while still leading the nation) and also pass for 2,000, then it will matter little if Michigan is 8-4, or even 7-5. 

—Imagine if the team picked in the preseason to finish eighth in the SEC had rolled into Austin, Texas, and beaten a No. 7 Texas team by 22 points.  Do you think we would’ve heard anything about how that was indicative of the depth and dominance of the SEC?  You bet your grits we would have.  But it wasn’t an SEC team that did this, it was a Pac-10 team.  And when a lower division Pac-10 team does something like this, it is merely an isolated incident, just a hiccup in the continuum.  Or because the team that lost was overrated anyway.  Nothing to see here….move along.

—The Wildcat is soooo 2008.   The Pistol is the new craze in college football.  Every Saturday, I watch upwards of 20 to 22 games, sitting on my bar stool at Barney’s Beanery in Westwood, the best sports bar in the LA area.  And the more I watch, the more I see this formation being used.  Some teams like Hawaii have certain packages that feature it, while others–like Alabama– tend to primarily run out of it (Mark Ingram is thriving in the formation).  Then there are the teams that run it full throttle–Indiana, UCLA and, of course, Nevada.  We saw what Nevada, a team with little talent, was able to do to California a couple weeks ago.  And the formation helped enable a rag-tag group of UCLA linemen to push around a Texas defensive line that probably has five or six first-day NFL picks in its two deep (obvious note: if you are a defender and you don’t know where the play is going, you tend to be at a crucial disadvantage, no matter how talented you are).  The benefits are clear:  It provides a shot gun look while still allowing for downhill running without telegraphing the direction of the run, as in a normal shotgun with an offset back.  Unlike the Wildcat, the quarterback gets his hands on the ball first, allowing for more passing options.  And preparing for the Pistol is difficult–not many teams run it, so most defensive players haven’t absorbed its concepts yet.  At some point, there will be a counter to it, but the Pistol is in that ‘sweet spot’ where, when executed correctly with the right players, it is practically unstoppable.

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Heisman News Round Up

By on September 29, 2010 in General CFB

The latest from around the net:

Betting against an Ingram Heisman repeat? Bad idea

LSU defensive back Patrick Peterson knows odds are against him in the Heisman race

Heisman Trophy Betting Update – Update After Week 4

2010 Heisman Watch: LSU’s Patrick Peterson Deserves Recognition

LSU does soft opening for Heisman campaign

Week 5 Heisman Watch: Buzz controls the race for these five candidates

Batch mentors Heisman Trophy hopeful Terrelle Pryor

10 Reasons Why Nevada’s Colin Kaepernick Likely to Win Heisman Trophy

Ingram vs. Newton for Heisman; who ya got?

Boise State’s Moore Ignores, and Justifies, Heisman Hype

Heisman frenzy creates lack of fairness

Denard Robinson’s Knee Injury Won’t Prevent His Heisman Run, His Team Will

Ingram right back in thick of Heisman race after performance at Arkansas

LSU Notes: Patrick Peterson does Heisman pose after TD

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The Heismanpundit Heisman Poll, Week 4

By on September 28, 2010 in Heismanpundit Straw Poll

Total Points (with first place votes in parentheses)

1. Denard Robinson, QB, Michigan – 34 (9)

2. Terrelle Pryor, QB, Ohio State – 20 (3)

3. Kellen Moore, QB, Boise State – 18 (1)

4. Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama – 4

5. Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford – 2

6. Cameron Newton, QB, Auburn – 1

About the poll
The HeismanPundit.com Heisman Poll is made up of 13 Heisman voters from across the country. They vote for three players each week. Tabulations are made on a 3-2-1 basis, with three points awarded for a first-place vote, two points for a second-place vote and one point for a third-place vote.  The last two years the Heismanpundit poll was the most accurate in the country, picking five of the top six finishers in the Heisman vote in 2008 and the top four in 2009.

Members of the panel include: Mike Bianchi of the Orlando Sentinel, Teddy Greenstein and Brian Hamilton of the Chicago Tribune, Olin Buchanan and Tom Dienhart of Rivals.com, Jenni Carlson of The Oklahoman, Bruce Feldman of ESPN.com, J.B. Morris of ESPN the Magazine, Austin Murphy, B.J. Schecter and Stewart Mandel of Sports Illustrated, plus Dick Weiss of the New York Daily News.

Chris Huston, owner of Heismanpundit.com, coordinates and also votes in the weekly poll.

HP’s Thoughts
Robinson’s durability takes center stage now after he missed most of the game against Bowling Green.  Can he stay healthy while handling the ball so much?  If he holds up, the race is probably his to lose.  The top three will likely remain static for a while as Robinson, Pryor and Moore don’t have any big games coming up.   That should give some of the other candidates down the ballot a chance to steal the spotlight.  And it’s a chance for voters to shop around a bit, too.

From a Voter
“I could put three different guys (LaMichael James, Kellen Moore and Patrick Peterson) in the top three and feel good about it. But I had Robinson and Pryor at the top after the first week and they’ve done nothing to warrant changing that. Ingram has been great in his two games and was a major factor for Alabama in a big game against Arkansas. He always plays well in big games.— Olin Buchanon, Rival.com.

Heisman Game of the Week
No. 9 Stanford at No. 5 Oregon — If there is going to be a legitimate Heisman candidate from the Pac-10 this year, that player will probably emerge from this game.  Both Andrew Luck and LaMichael James are hanging around the periphery of the race and both will have a shot at impressing–or turning off–a lot of Heisman voters. 

Player to Watch
Andrew Luck, Stanford — The Cardinal have a great quarterback tradition and Luck appears to be the latest in that line.  However, his combination of size, athleticism and bulldog-like toughness is more reminiscent of a Michigan quarterback–his own coach, Jim Harbaugh.  If Luck can lead Stanford to a Pac-10 title, he’s got a chance to become the second-straight Cardinal player to make it to New York.

This Week in Heisman History
Earl Campbell rushed for 131 yards and four touchdowns on just 13 carries as Texas walloped Rice, 72-15, in 1977.  The Longhorns rolled up 617 yards and kicker Russell Erxleben kicked a record 67-yard field goal.  Campbell would go on to win the Heisman Trophy that year, beating out Terry Miller of Oklahoma State and Ken MacAfee of Notre Dame.

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The HP Heisman Watch, Week 4

By on September 27, 2010 in Uncategorized

Go to this great sportsbook for the latest betting odds, but in the meantime, it’s time to look at the state of the Heisman race.

Here is my list of the players who currently stand the best chance of actually winning the Heisman.  This is not a predicted order of the final vote, nor the order of how the vote would go if held today.  Some players not on this list are likely to receive support, but not enough to win. 

So, here is the HP Heisman Watch after four weeks of football.  One of these guys is going to win the 2010 Heisman:

1. Terrelle Pryor, Ohio State–Pryor is coming off one of his more spectacular days as he went 20 of 26 for 224 yards and four touchdowns while running for 104 yards and a score on seven carries against Eastern Michigan.  Oh, and he also caught a touchdown pass.  His trump card over the rest of the field remains his team’s tradition and lofty ranking.  As long as he keeps playing like he has been lately–and the Buckeyes keep winning–he’ll stay the favorite.  Looking ahead, he is likely to be challenged just once over the next five games–a road trip to Wisconsin in mid-October.  Get through that, and he’ll head into November with a chance to seal the deal.

Current Stats: 71/107 (66.4%), 939 yds, 10 TDs, 2 INTs, 167.18 rtg; 43 att, 269 rush yds (6.3 ypc), 3 TDs; 1 TD rec.

Projected Season Stats*: 2,817 passing yds, 30 TDs, 6 INTs; 807 rush yds, 9 TDs

2. Denard Robinson, Michigan–I’m convinced that the only thing standing between Robinson and the Heisman is the health issue.  Can he survive a full season?  If so, I think he’s going to put up numbers that will be impossible for the Heisman electorate to ignore–no matter what Michigan’s record.  Before getting dinged up against Bowling Green last Saturday, he still managed 129 rushing yards and two scores on just five carries while completing all four of his passes for another 60 yards.  Despite the limited play, he still leads the nation in rushing and is second in total offense.  If he stays healthy, the combination of Michigan’s traditional power status and his overwhelming stats should carry him through.  However, the more time he misses and the more his stats suffer due to injury, the more he’ll have to make up for it by leading Michigan to some big wins down the road.

Current Stats: 57/80 (71.3%), 731 yds, 4 TDs, 1 INT, 162.01 rtg; 79 att, 688 rush yds (8.71 ypc), 6 TDs

Projected Season Stats*: 2,193 passing yds, 12 TDs, 3 INTs; 2,064 rush yds, 18 TDs

3. Kellen Moore, Boise State–Moore looked fantastic against Oregon State and once again reminded voters why he’s such a special player.  He was 19 of 27 for 288 yards and three touchdowns against the Beavers and it seemed like he put every throw on the money.  He and his team are just really, really good, despite playing in a non-BCS conference.  Unfortunately for his Heisman aspirations, he’ll go into the equivalent of hibernation for a while as BSU heads into conference play against a slate of lesser foes.  However, Moore has a chance to get a boost later in the year when the Broncos play three late November games on Friday night, which means he’ll have the spotlight to himself.  In the meantime, he’s got to keep adding to his already dazzling career numbers  (29-1 as a starter; 47-4 TD-to-INT ratio in the last 17 games) and hope Pryor and Robinson falter a bit.

Current Stats: 62/95 (65.3%), 873 yds, 8 TDs, 1 INT, 168.13 rtg

Projected Season Stats*: 3,492 passing yds, 32 TDs, 4 INTs

4. Andrew Luck, Stanford–Luck acquitted himself well against Notre Dame, going 19 of 32 for 238 yards and a touchdown with two interceptions while also rushing for 23 yards.  Beating the Irish in a nationally-televised game never hurts when it comes to the Heisman race (just ask Denard Robinson).  But Luck has an great opportunity to add another feather to his cap this Saturday when Stanford takes on No. 5 Oregon in Eugene.   If he plays well and beats the Ducks, then he’ll start to eat into a significant chunk of Moore’s West Coast vote and become a major Heisman contender.  Beating USC the following week would also be a boon to his candidacy.  Lose to one or both and it gets problematic.  In the end, several things have to fall into place for Luck to have a shot, but the same was true of Toby Gerhart last year and he missed the Heisman by the closest vote ever.

Current Stats: 67/108 (62.7%), 912 yds, 11 TDs, 2 INT, 169.52 rtg; 17 att, 163 rush yds (9.6 ypc), 1 TD

Projected Season Stats*: 2,736 passing yds, 33 TDs, 6 INTs; 489 rush yds, 4 TDs

5. LaMichael James, Oregon–James has wasted no time getting back up to speed after missing the first game due to suspension, averaging 151 yards per game in his three outings.  However, he had just 114 yards and a score on 28 carries against Arizona State, so he needs to pick up the pace a bit.  He’s got just the arena to do it, too, as the Ducks host Stanford on Saturday in a game everyone will be watching.  If James explodes for big yardage and Oregon wins, he’ll solidify his status as the running back with the best chance of taking home the Heisman.

Current Stats: 58 att, 455 rush yds (7.8 ypc), 4 TDs

Projected Season Stats*: 1,672 rush yds, 15 TDs

6. Ryan Mallett, Arkansas–This past Saturday, Mallett had the ideal scenario in place for taking control of the Heisman race.   The No. 1 team was on the ropes, but he wasn’t able to deliver the knockout punch.  While he did throw for 357 yards and a score on 25 of 38 passing, he also tossed three costly interceptions.  I don’t count him completely out of this race, however (though his chances have plunged).  Nowhere is it written that you have to go undefeated to win the Heisman.  And if Mallett can play really well the rest of the year and the Hogs win out and beat some good teams along the way, he’ll have a chance to win if the rest of the field slips up.  It might be a fat chance, but there’s a chance.

Current Stats: 95/138 (68.8%), 1,438 yds, 10 TDs, 5 INTs, 173.03 rtg; 2 rush TDs

Projected Season Stats*: 4,314 passing yds, 30 TDs, 15 INTs; 6 rush TDs

* – Stat projection is for end of regular season when the Heisman votes are due.

If the vote were held today

1. Denard Robinson

2. Kellen Moore

3. Terrelle Pryor

4. Mark Ingram

5. Andrew Luck

6. LaMichael James

7. Ryan Mallett

8. Cameron Newton

9. Patrick Peterson

10. Russell Wilson

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HP Fantasy Challenge, Week 4 Results

By on September 27, 2010 in Uncategorized

Full results and leaderboard here.

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