1. Alabama
2. Ohio State
3. Oregon
4. Boise State
5. TCU
6. Stanford
7. Nebraska
8. Arkansas
9. Miami
10. Auburn
On the cusp: Arizona, Oklahoma, Florida, Utah, NC State
1. Alabama
2. Ohio State
3. Oregon
4. Boise State
5. TCU
6. Stanford
7. Nebraska
8. Arkansas
9. Miami
10. Auburn
On the cusp: Arizona, Oklahoma, Florida, Utah, NC State
Setting the table for today:
There are currently four major candidates for the 2010 Heisman Trophy and several minor candidates behind them trying to gain traction.
As the race now stands, the leader (if the vote were held today) is a sophomore quarterbacking phenom from a traditional power who has burst onto the scene with his passing and running. He is on pace for a record-breaking season.
Not far behind him–and with more overall advantages in the campaign–is a junior quarterback with elite size and athleticism (and good name recognition) who is in his third year as a starter and is also from a traditional power, though one that is competing for the national title.
Then there is the gutty and diminutive junior from the upstart national title-contending program whose passing numbers and winning percentage as a starter are unmatched and whose Heisman fortunes are, more than anyone else, tied in with those of his team.
Finally, we get to the mountainous junior quarterback with the rocket arm who may well set all kinds of SEC records before he’s through.
Denard Robinson and Terrelle Pryor will not see their Heisman hopes change much as a result of what happens in their games today. And while Kellen Moore’s Heisman aspirations could be dealt a mortal blow if Boise State loses to Oregon State, he’s not going to jump over Robinson and Pryor if the Broncos win.
The one player who has the most to gain from Saturday is Ryan Mallett.
If Mallett plays well and leads the Razorbacks to a win over No. 1 Alabama, I think he’s got a chance to move into the No. 1 spot in the Heisman race or, at the worst, dislodge Pryor for the No. 2 spot.
If the Razorbacks lose a closely-contested game despite Mallett playing well–or if Arkansas wins despite Mallett being ineffective–I think he can stick around in third or fourth place and be in position for a late season Heisman run if the Hogs win out and he puts up some sick numbers.
But if Mallett plays poorly and Alabama wins, then his Heisman hopes will be difficult to revive unless the contenders ahead of him hit similiar road bumps. One thing in Mallett’s favor is that the remainder of the Arkansas schedule features some ‘name’ teams like Texas A&M, Auburn and LSU, but the Hogs are likely to be favored to beat each of them, depending on what happens today.
What kind of game does Mallet have to have to take control of the race? I’m thinking he needs over 300 yards and 3 TDs with no costly picks. That would be impressive against a tough–although untested–’Bama defense.
Well, the table is set. Time to watch the games.
Feel free to comment below as the day goes on…I’d love to get everyone’s thoughts on week four.
I’m slowly but surely catching up to the times here, or trying to.
You can now access Heismanpundit on your mobile phone and the site will actually be readable, instead of a mish-mash of jumbled text and images.
If you are on the road or at the game and want to catch up with the latest Heisman news or college football commentary, just log on via your iphone, blackberry or whatever mobile device you have and have at it.
Since the subject of conference vs. conference has been broached again, I thought I’d share some data that never gets mentioned in the mainstream media.
As most sentient beings would acknowledge, the default mentality out there is that the SEC is hands-down the best conference in the land, year-in and year-out. Any data to the contrary tends to get buried, dismissed or shouted down the way the sheep in the book Animal Farm drowned out dissent with their incessant bleating. Now, I personally think the SEC is the best conference this year (or it looks to be right now), but I don’t see where it is written that I must think this is the case each and every year. Each season must be looked at on its own merits. To some, this is a novel concept.
But have a look at the data provided by the website thenationalchampionshipissue.blogspot.com, which has a chart that keeps track of results of interconference play.
Some interesting gems of data emerge:
1. In the BCS Era (beginning in 1998), the SEC and Pac-10 are the only two conferences with winning records against the other BCS conferences. The SEC is 127-112 (.531), while the Pac-10 is 117-106 (.524).
2. The Pac-10 is the only conference that has a losing record against less than two of the other conferences. It’s only deficit is against the Big 12 and it’s a narrow one (30-32). The SEC has losing records against both the Big East (14-19) and the Pac-10 (9-12).
3. Of the BCS conferences, the Pac-10 has played the fewest games (38) against I-AA opponents–and it’s not even close. The other conferences: Big 12 (86), ACC (85), SEC (78), Big East (66), Big Ten (56).
4. Since 1998, the SEC has won 467 out-of-conference games. A whopping 340 of those wins–or 73 percent–have come against either non-BCS-conference or 1-AA opponents. The Big 12 is even worse in this regard, with 76 percent of its OOC wins coming against such foes. The other conferences by comparison: ACC (.608), Pac-10 (.632), Big East (.682), Big Ten (.672).
5. The Sunbelt Conference is the great whooping boy of college football, with a winning record against only 1-AA foes since 1998. The SEC has rolled up more wins against the Sun Belt than any other conference, going 79-4 since 1998. Coming in second is the Big 12, which is 53-5. No other conference has played more than 18 games against the Sun Belt during this span.
Now, without a doubt, the SEC has been excellent since 2006. Besides winning four national titles, it has a 58-38 (.604) record against the other BCS conferences. The Pac-10 is 46-35 (.567). However, the SEC is also 105-7 (.937) against the non-BCS (65-6) and 1-AA (40-1) portion of its schedule during that same stretch while the Pac-10 is 65-28 (.698). The Pac-10 is 20-0 against 1-AA opponents since 2006, but is just 45-28 against the other non-BCS conferences. This clearly reflects the Mountain West Conference’s emergence as the strongest of the non-BCS leagues (it is 16-14 vs. the Pac-10 since ’06) and the general rule that non-BCS leagues out West–the ones more likely to play Pac-10 teams due to geography–feature far stronger teams (Boise State, TCU, BYU, Utah, Fresno State) than the ones in the East. Significantly enough, the Pac-10 also went to a round robin schedule in 2006, which added five more guaranteed losses to its members.
After looking at just the SEC/Pac-10 comparisons, I believe this backs up my contention that there really isn’t a whole lot of differences between the conferences over time and that the overhype of the SEC is incongruous with the record. Furthermore, the SEC and the Big 12 are the most prone to pad their win totals by playing lesser competition. More wins equals a better record, which equals better rankings and more bowls and the benefit of the doubt when it comes to who should go to BCS bowls in the future. It’s why we hear speculation that a ‘one-loss SEC or Big 12 team’ should go to a BCS title game over Boise State, and rarely whether a ‘one-loss Big Ten, Pac-10, ACC or Big East’ team should.
Again, this is not to say that the SEC isn’t worthy of hype, or isn’t worthy of being considered the best conference. But let’s not act like there’s some giant gap between it and some of the other leagues, or that it hasn’t benefitted from playing boatloads of patsies over the years. The facts are the facts and you can check them yourself.
Whether you choose to believe them, that’s another story.
I’m on a roll, baby. Hitting at a 60 percent pace against the spread the last two weeks (12-8). 15-14-1 overall on the year. Time to get cocky. All lines courtesy of Doc Sports.
Miami (-4) at Pittsburgh–I think the Canes will get back on track against the Panthers. Too much athleticism and plenty of time to prepare gives Miami a decided edge.
Miami 31, Pittsburgh 21
TCU (-18) at Southern Methodist–I’m not sure any team in the country is playing as well as TCU is right now. I just can’t see the revived Mustangs being able to slow down Andy Dalton and the Horned Frogs.
TCU 45, SMU 23
Temple (+14) at Penn State–The Owls are a veteran team and I think they’ll have enough in them to stick with a Penn State squad that has looked less than stellar in recent weeks.
Penn State 28, Temple 17
NC State (+8) at Georgia Tech–The Wolfpack are playing well right now and I think this is too many points for Tech to cover. Russell Wilson has a huge game and State gets the upset.
NC State 31, Georgia Tech 27
Georgia (+1) at Mississippi State–Sorry, but no way does Georgia start out 0-3 in conference. I think the Bulldogs are close to putting it all together. Get ready for a big game from Aaron Murray.
Georgia 31, Mississippi State 19
Arkansas (+7.5) vs. Alabama–The Tide defense has a bunch of new starters that have not yet faced the type of offensive machine run by Arkansas. I think the Hogs jump out early and put pressure on Alabama’s offense and, for the first time, McElroy doesn’t come through. Outright win for the Hogs.
Arkansas 24, Alabama 23
Stanford (-5) at Notre Dame–The poor Irish have lost two heartbreakers and now must face a very good Stanford team. Andrew Luck is one of the best quarterbacks in the country and he’ll drive the Irish crazy.
Stanford 38, Notre Dame 27
Oregon (-12) at Arizona State–The Sun Devils acquitted themselves quite nicely against Wisconsin, but the Ducks are a whole different species (literally). ASU is quick, but Oregon is quicker.
Oregon 42, ASU 21
Utah State (+7.5) at San Diego State–I really like the Aztecs this year, but I think the last minute loss to Missouri might deflate them a bit against the Aggies. Utah State gets the cover in a bit of a late-developing shootout.
San Diego State 35, Utah State 33
Tulane (+19.5) at Houston–Can the Cougars beat up on Tulane with a third string quarterback? I’m guessing that Bob Toledo has a few tricks up his sleeve and keeps this one relatively close.
Houston 34, Tulane 16
In a follow up to the stats from CFBStats I posted yesterday, here is a comparative look at the top four Heisman candidates in the Heismanpundit Poll in various categories:
Sorted Pass Efficiency Ratings
First Half Passing
Ryan Mallett–178.38
Denard Robinson–170.67
Kellen Moore–169.56
Terrelle Pryor–158.92
Second Half Passing
Ryan Mallett–197.27
Terrelle Pryor–150.06
Denard Robinson–147.22
Kellen Moore–136.26
First Quarter
Ryan Mallett–204.69
Kellen Moore–197.33
Denard Robinson–195.07
Terrelle Pryor–174.95
Second Quarter
Denard Robinson–154.04
Ryan Mallett–147.01
Terrelle Pryor–144.90
Kellen Moore–141.77
Third Quarter
Ryan Mallett–173.84
Terrelle Pryor–164.71
Kellen Moore–141.20
Denard Robinson–127.42
Fourth Quarter
Ryan Mallett–233.14
Denard Robinson–162.53
Kellen Moore–128.36
Terrelle Pryor–87.80
First Down
Denard Robinson–205.31
Ryan Mallett–195.76
Kellen Moore–157.82
Terrelle Pryor–138.73
Second Down
Terrelle Pryor–223.56
Kellen Moore–193.27
Ryan Mallett–192.32
Denard Robinson–125.90
Third Down
Ryan Mallett–184.14
Denard Robinson–149.80
Kellen Moore–116.64
Terrelle Pryor–113.62
While the data is based on just three games (two in Moore’s case), I think a few interesting nuggets of data emerge. Namely, I think it’s remarkable how much Robinson has developed as a passer, as he places first or second in five of the nine categories. Also, the overall refinement of Mallett is a passer is clear as he does well in each and every category. I also find it noteworthy that Pryor’s worst showings are on third down and in the fourth quarter. And it is also surprising that Moore’s efficiency drops so much in the fourth quarter given his comeback drive against Virginia Tech.
We’ll have more comparative stat breakdowns as the season goes on.
Again, with Herschel Walker, but this one is too good to pass up. Here’s the 1982 Heisman winner getting beat in the 60m dash by Olympic gold medalist Carl Lewis, despite his SEC speed (photo courtesy of SI.com):
Chris Huston, A.K.A. ‘The Heisman Pundit‘, is the creator and publisher of Heismanpundit.com, a site dedicated to analysis of the Heisman Trophy and college football.
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