Archive | September, 2010

Soothing the Beast

Just in case it hasn’t been made clear that the mainstream sports media will bow down lower to the SEC than even Obama will to an Arab tyrant, here is today’s column from Ivan Maisel, who by writing this has most likely assured himself not only a cleaner email inbox (a goal of every columnist), but also safe passage throughout the geographic South for the rest of the fall.*

In other words, the virgin has been sacrificed and Kong has taken his reward!  Maisel is an excellent writer for whom I have great respect and he’s a class act with whom I usually agree, but I have to take issue with this column. 

Some highlights of the piece, which hit all the talking points needed to satiate the rabid ESS–EEE–SEE fan:

There are plenty of other statistics and ratings by which to calibrate the primacy of the SEC

“In this league, there are legitimately 10 teams, maybe more, that can be Top 25 teams,” (Tennesee linebacker coach Lance) Thompson said.

MAYBE MORE!  So, for now, who are the unlucky two?  Vandy and Ole Miss?  I guess the pollsters are missing the boat on Tennessee, Kentucky and Mississippi State, who are all CLEARLY being screwed by not being ranked at this point.  Too bad a less self-serving quote couldn’t have been found.

Since 2006, the SEC has played 38 conference games in which both teams were ranked.

That’s very impressive, to be sure.  But it’d be nice to know what the numbers are for other conferences so we can compare.  Is this significantly more than other conferences?  A bit more?  A bit less?  Why the 2006 benchmark?  And can’t we all acknowledge that if the SEC is given better treatment by the media (see this fawning column as an example), it’s going to end up with better rankings, too?  After all, who votes in the polls?  The media.

Above all, however, is the simple fact that the SEC has more big, fast players than the other leagues.

If it’s a ‘simple fact’, how come we never get any quantifiable numbers on this?  I’m not saying it’s not necessarily true, but I just don’t think it’s verifiable.  Any truism like this should be easily researchable before being deemed such.

“There’s a reason,” Thompson said, “the TV contract is as big as it is. There’s a reason that there is 98 percent occupancy in very big stadiums.”

Well, sure.  The fans love the product. That’s not in question.  But that has nothing to do with the quality of football in the conference.  The fans show up in droves to see whatever product is put in front of them, which means that even Alabama’s game vs. patsy San Jose State drew 102,000–or exactly the same as the Tide drew for its game against traditional power Penn State.  That hardly shows a discerning level of fan interest.  In short, the people down South love the sport and are great fans, but that doesn’t mean the conference, by extension, plays better football because of it.

Look.  I think the SEC is the best conference in college football right now.  I think it has the best combination of coaching and talent of any league.  This type of compliment, of course, is never enough for the average SEC fan, who the media has determined must be coddled with over-the-top columns such as this. 

But I don’t think it’s right to sit here and pretend going in that no other conference should even be considered the SEC’s equal—not until the games are played, at least.  The default mentality when a season starts should not be that the SEC is the best due to these vauge notions regarding team speed and fan intensity.  The default should be:  We think this conference is loaded with great players and coaches, but let’s see if the teams turn out to be good or not compared to other teams.    What’s wrong with that?

Everyone cries about how the BCS is unfair and how a playoff is needed.  But in a sport where the champion is determined by subjective voters, the No. 1 issue out there right now should be the slathering bias accorded to one conference over all others.  The process is tainted, but not by computers or formulas, but actual coverage of the sport.  And this hurts college football.  It’s not even debatable.  There is a liberal media bias when it comes to politics–research by the Pew Center over the years has confirmed that–and there is an SEC bias when it comes to college football.  We see all kinds of subjects covered on Outside the Lines and Real Sports and various other sports media panels, but never this one.  And this is an issue that affects things like rankings and BCS titles–the very things used in the media to justify the bias in the first place.

So why the bias?  Ratings, mostly.  The media knows where its bread is buttered and in this rough economic climate, you do your best to satisfy your most loyal customers.  It’s not supposed to be that way, but it is.  Every editor, columnist or blogger out there knows that if you want to get a bunch of reads, write about and feature the SEC.  But when economic concerns are governing coverage–and when audience placation is the goal–it’s difficult to produce a fair account of what’s actually happening. 

Some of you probably disagree.  Some of you probably agree and don’t care. 

For the sake of the rest of you, I hope things change soon.

* - Calm down, I mostly kid.  But if you think I’m being alarmist about the way the media views such things, the latest edition of ESPN The Magazine mentions an AP voter who worries that his vote being made public could potentially make him a target of angry SEC fans.  I think that’s a horrible way to view the good people of that region, but it does illustrate the thought process that goes into how some subjects are covered…Elite media tends to view the South as a dangerous backwater…in their mind, why piss people off when you might have to cover a game there?  Better to soothe the beast.

Comments { 34 }

Sorting Through Some Stats

Thanks to CFBStats.com, here are a few broken-down stats from the first few games that I found rather interesting.  If you go to CFB Stats, you can sort to your heart’s content, but this is just a sampling:

—Best passing efficiency by quarter
1st: Greg McElroy, Alabama (251.7)
2nd: Kyle Parker, Clemson (232.2)
3rd: Cameron Newton, Auburn (298.9)
4th: Jerrod Johnson, Texas A&M (282.2)

—Best passer by down
1st: Terrance Cain, Utah (300.1)
2nd: Andrew Luck, Stanford (256.3)
3rd: Trevor Vittatoe, UTEP (226.9)

—Best Passers Inside Own 20 yard line
1. Andrew Luck, Stanford (335.6)
2. Ryan Mallett, Arkansas (299.6)
3. T.J. Yates, North Carolina (286.28)

—Best Passers Inside Opponents’ 20 yard line
1. Dan Persa, Northwestern (377.4)
2. Zach Collaros, Cincinnati (377.1)
3. Ryan Nassib, Syracuse (361.0)

—Most Rushing Yards By Quarter
1st: Colin Kaepernick, Nevada; Jordan Todman, Connecticut
2nd: Denard Robinson, Michigan
3rd: Taylor Martinez, Nebraska
4th: Ronnie Hillman, San Diego State

—Most Rushing Yards By Down
1st: Edwin Baker, Michigan State
2nd: Denard Robinson, Michigan
3rd: Orwin Smith, Georgia Tech; Chandler Harnish, N. Illinois

—Most Rushing Yards From Inside Own 20 Yard Line
1. Denard Robinson, Michigan
2. Edwin Baker, Michigan State
3. Ronnie Hillman, SDSU

—Most Rushing Yards Inside Opponents’ 20 Yard Line
1. Ed Wesley, TCU
2. Ricky Dobbs, Navy
3. John Clay, Wisconsin

—Most Rushing Attempts By Down

1st: Daniel Thomas, Kansas State (44)
2nd: Denard Robinson, Michigan (32)
3rd: Ricky Dobbs, Navy (19)

—Most Rushing Attempts by Quarter
1st: Daniel Thomas, Kansas State (27)
2nd: Vai Taua, Nevada (23)
3rd: Rodney Stewart, Colorado (30)
4th: Ronnie Hillman, SDSU (28)

—Most Receiving Yards by Quarter
1st: Jeff Maehl, Oregon
2nd: DeMarco Sampson, SDSU
3rd: Justin Blackmon, Oklahoma State
4th: Marvin Jones, California

—Most Receiving Yards By Down
1st: Jermaine Kearse, Washington
2nd: Joe Adams, Arkansas
3rd: Virgil Green, Nevada

Fewest Rushing Yards Allowed on Third and Short
1. Miami (-7)
2. Tennessee (-2)
3. Iowa (0)

Highest Average Rushing Yards Allowed on Third and Short
1. South Florida (14.0)
2. North Carolina (12.9)
3. UCLA (11.4)

Comments { 0 }

Heisman Pic of the Day

Desmond Howard lays out for the ball on 4th down against Notre Dame in 1991…

Comments { 0 }

The Heismanpundit Heisman Poll, Week 3

Mr. Robinson on top once more…

Total Points (with first place votes in parentheses)

1. Denard Robinson, QB, Michigan – 31 (10)

2. (tie) Terrelle Pryor, QB, Ohio State – 18 (3)

2. (tie) Kellen Moore, QB, Boise State – 18

4. Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas – 7

5. LaMichael James, RB, Oregon – 2

6. (tie) Taylor Martinez, QB, Nebraska – 1

6. (tie) Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama – 1

About the poll
The HeismanPundit.com Heisman Poll is made up of 13 Heisman voters from across the country. They vote for three players each week. Tabulations are made on a 3-2-1 basis, with three points awarded for a first-place vote, two points for a second-place vote and one point for a third-place vote.  The last two years the Heismanpundit poll was the most accurate in the country, picking five of the top six finishers in the Heisman vote in 2008 and the top four in 2009.

Members of the panel include: Mike Bianchi of the Orlando Sentinel, Teddy Greenstein and Brian Hamilton of the Chicago Tribune, Olin Buchanan and Tom Dienhart of Rivals.com, Jenni Carlson of The Oklahoman, Bruce Feldman of ESPN.com, J.B. Morris of ESPN the Magazine, Austin Murphy, B.J. Schecter and Stewart Mandel of Sports Illustrated, plus Dick Weiss of the New York Daily News.

Chris Huston, owner of Heismanpundit.com, coordinates and also votes in the weekly poll.

HP’s Thoughts
The race continues to revolve around Robinson, Pryor and Moore, though Mallett is closing fast and could break up that trio with a win over Alabama on Saturday.  Given Michigan’s schedule the next few weeks, it’s likely that Robinson will remain the front runner as we hit the season’s mid-way point.  Not much else going on down the ballot, though it is interesting to see a freshman (Martinez) get in the mix.  
 
From a Voter
“There’s no question Robinson has been the most dominant player in the country through three games. Moore delivered a huge game-winning drive against Va Tech and put up huge numbers again last week at Wyoming. Pryor is really clicking right now and I don’t think he got enough credit for the performance against Miami. There’s a lot of other guys worthy of consideration, too, but those are my three for this week.” — Stewart Mandel, Sports Illustrated.

Heisman Game of the Week
No. 1 Alabama at No. 8 Arkansas
 — Ryan Mallett passed the pop quiz last week against Georgia and now must ace this major test against Alabama if he wants to challenge for the Heisman.  Beat the Tide and he’s probably on his way to New York.  An added element of intrigue to this contest is the reemergence of Mark Ingram.  The defending Heisman winner won’t win again, but he can still be a factor in the race, especially if he has a big game here.

Player to Watch
Taylor Martinez, Nebraska — Nebraska hasn’t had an offensive player on the Heisman radar since 2001, when quarterback Eric Crouch won the trophy.  While mention of Martinez may be premature at this point–after all, he is a freshman–there’s no doubt that he has playe a big part in making the Cornhuskers a national title contender.  If he keeps it up, we may be talking about him for quite a while here on HP.

This Week in Heisman History
Rashaan Salaam rushed for 141 yards and two touchdowns on 22 carries to lead Colorado to a win over Michigan in 1994.  Wait, is that all that happened?  Uh, no.  That was also the game where Kordell Stewart lofted a 65-yard touchdown pass to Michael Westbrook with no time left to give Colorado to a 27-26 victory for the ages.  Salaam would go on to win the Heisman after rushing for 2,055 yards.

Comments { 11 }

Smartypants Quarterbacks

The starting quarterbacks from Stanford and Northwestern, two schools ranked 5th and 12th, respectively, in the 2010 U.S. News and World Report rankings, are currently ranked 2nd and 3rd nationally in pass efficiency, with Dan Persa checking in at 192.62 and Andrew Luck at 192.31.

Persa and Luck combined are completing 73 percent of their passes, while throwing 16 touchdown passes with zero interceptions.

Comments { 4 }

The HP Heisman Watch, Week 3

We’re heading into a new week of college football and that means a fresh look at the state of the Heisman race.

Here is my list of the players who currently stand the best chance of actually winning the Heisman.  This is not a predicted order of the final vote, nor the order of how the vote would go if held today.  Some players not on this list are likely to receive support, but not enough to win. 

So, here is the HP Heisman Watch after three weeks of football.  One of these guys is going to win the 2010 Heisman:

1. Terrelle Pryor, QB, Ohio State–The Buckeye quarterback is off to a good start thus far and is, at the moment, the default favorite to take home the 76th Heisman Trophy.  Under his belt is a victory against a ranked opponent, plus a couple good performances in dominant wins over lesser foes.  Pryor’s pass efficiency rating has improved considerably–he checks in at No. 23 nationally with a rating of 156.51.  On the year, he is 51 of 81 (63 percent) for 715 yards with six touchdowns and two interceptions.  He has also rushed for 165 yards and two scores.  By the time the Heisman vote is tallied, he projects to have 2,856 passing yards with 24 touchdown passes and 8 interceptions, along with 660 yards and 8 scores on the ground.  Those are Heisman-worthy numbers.  Ohio State is likely to be a substantial favorite in every game the rest of the way out, with its main challenges coming from trips to Wisconsin and Iowa.  There is a chance for a mega-showdown for the Heisman in week 12 versus Michigan, but Pryor should have the upper hand in that matchup as his supporting cast is stronger.  If Pryor can get through the schedule unscathed, he’ll be tough to beat.   

2. Denard Robinson, QB, Michigan–Robinson has been so good so early, he is in position to win the Heisman with as many as four losses.  While it is true that the last player to win the Heisman with that many defeats was Steve Owens in 1969, there is a good case to be made on Robinson’s behalf.  Namely, if he keeps up his current pace–and it will admittedly be difficult–he’ll become the NCAA’s first player to both rush and pass for 2,000 yards in a season.  This would be such an incredible feat that the losses he incurs are likely to be overlooked (much as Tim Tebow’s 30/20 season resulted in the Heisman despite 3 losses).  As it now stands, he is on course to have, by the time of the Heisman vote, 2,232 yards and 16 touchdowns on the ground and 2,684 yards and 16 touchdowns through the air.  A few things are working in Robinson’s favor–namely (and also like Tebow), that he is rightly perceived as a one-man show, and also that the Wolverine defense is so pathetic that he probably won’t have the luxury of sitting out many fourth quarters, thus increasing his stats.  If his numbers do start to fade a bit, then the importance of Michigan winning will increase and he will have to lead the way against ranked teams like Wisconsin, Iowa and Ohio State. 

3. Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas–Thing are set up perfectly for Mallett to go get the Heisman.  With at least two Big Ten candidates potentially clogging up support in the MidWest, Mallett can stand out as the main contender from the SEC.  I don’t necessarily think the Hogs have to go undefeated for Mallett to win the Heisman, but I do think he has to either lead Arkansas to a win over Alabama, or play lights out in a close loss to the Tide.  If Arkansas finishes 11-1 with its only loss to the No. 1 team and Mallett has impressive passing numbers, he’ll be tough to beat.  The rest of the Arkansas schedule after Bama has a lot of big names on it like Texas A&M and LSU, but the Hogs may well be favored in every game after this Saturday.  It’s possible that Mallett may be credited with getting through a “tough SEC slate” despite playing only one or two more ranked teams.  At this pace, Mallett will have 4,320 passing yards, 36 touchdown passes and 8 interceptions at the time of the Heisman vote.  Those are Heisman-worthy stats, with the potential to put a cherry on top of them in the conference title game if Arkansas wins the SEC West.    

4. Kellen Moore, QB, Boise State–People have been obsessed lately with the implications of Virginia Tech losing to James Madison while forgetting just how good Boise State is with Kellen Moore behind center.  The junior now has a career record of 28-1 and has thrown 44 touchdown passes against just four interceptions in the last 16 games.  While he has been overshadowed by the emergence of Denard Robinson and Ryan Mallett in recent weeks, he still has a decent shot at winning the Heisman.  What would have to happen?  Well, first and foremost, the Broncos must go undefeated.  Second, Ohio State has to lose a game, with Pryor reverting back to his old form.  Third, the wheels need to come falling off the Robinson express and, lastly, Arkansas must be taken to the woodshed by Alabama and at least one other opponent.  None of these four things are close to being out of the realm of possibility and, if I had to bet, I’d wager at least two of the four will happen.  If all four happen, Moore may be our guy in 2010.  At his current pace, he’ll have 3,510 yards with 30 touchdowns and 6 interceptions by the time of the vote.  Plenty good enough to win.

5. Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford–Luck is off to a great start.  Through three games, he is third nationally in passer rating at 192.31, has 10 touchdown passes with no interceptions, has thrown for 674 yards (completing 64 percent) and has rushed for another 140 yards and a touchdown.  Luck will need the first four players on this list to falter, but he appears to be headed for a special season.  Given that Stanford nearly won the Heisman last year with a team that went 8-4, I don’t think it is a stretch to think that Luck has a legit shot if the players ahead of him slip up and he leads the Cardinal to 10 wins and a Pac-10 title.  There is a high-profile matchup at Notre Dame this Saturday, which will give the national media its first look at him this year.  The following week will be a monster showdown at Oregon.  If Luck can lead Stanford to a win there, his Heisman chances are likely to treble.  As it stands now, he’ll have 2,696 yards and 40 touchdown passes through the air plus 560 yards and four scores on the ground by the time the Heisman vote is due. 

6. LaMichael James, RB, Oregon–The Ducks and James are so explosive, it may be that the sophomore running back makes a run at the Heisman despite missing the first game due to suspension.  In about six quarters of play thus far, James has made up for lost time, rushing for 361 yards and three touchdowns while averaging 12 yards per carry.  There are games coming up against Stanford, USC and Arizona that will put the spotlight squarely on the Ducks, so James has a chance to benefit.  He is on pace to have 1,985 yards and 17 touchdowns rushing by the time of the Heisman vote.  If he can get to 2,000 and the Ducks run the table, look out.

7. John Clay, RB, Wisconsin–Clay’s Heisman hopes are fading a bit, but not because he hasn’t played well.  The emergence of Denard Robinson puts him third among Big Ten candidates, which means he has an uphill climb ahead of him.  I believe that he needs to get to the 2,000 yard mark to have a chance to win.  As it now stands, he’s on pace to have 1,536 yards and 20 touchdowns by the time of the Heisman vote.  Those are good numbers, but not enough to win.  He has to average 180 yards per game from here on out to get to 2,000.  Can he do it?  I think he has a shot, but it’s remote.

8. DeMarco Murray, RB, Oklahoma–I am a bit skeptical of Murray as a candidate but I include him here because he always seems to find a way to prove me wrong.  He is the starting tailback for the Oklahoma Sooners, which automatically gives him cache in this field.  To actually challenge for the Heisman, though, he and his team need to go on a tear.  That means they need to start to roll over teams like Utah State while taking down respected powers like Texas.  Looking at the Sooner schedule, I can see why Phil Steele thought OU might go undefeated–after the Longhorns, Oklahoma won’t play a team that is currently ranked, unless it is in the Big 12 title game.  If Murray can kick into high gear a bit and start to dazzle with the ball in his hands, he’ll have a shot.  Right now, he’s on pace to have 1,512 yards and 24 touchdowns by the time of the Heisman vote, with the possibility of the Big 12 title game to add more on top of it.  If he can get to the 1,800 or 1,900 mark, I think he’ll be in the mix.

9. Daniel Thomas, RB, Kansas State–For Thomas to win the Heisman, he’ll have to do it on the sheer force of his numbers.  The Wildcats are unlikely to make it to a major bowl game and, really, they’ll do well just to get to a minor one this season.  The bright spot for KSU is Thomas, who is second nationally with 552 yards and six touchdowns.  At his current pace, he’ll have 2,208 rushing yards and 24 touchdowns by the time of the Heisman vote.  I don’t think he could win the Heisman with even that many rushing yards.  He’d have to really run wild and get to 2,500 with big games against Nebraska and Texas.  That’s only an increase of 20 yards per game on his present average, so you never know.  I think he’s a special back, so I don’t rule it out.

If the vote were held today

1. Denard Robinson
2. Terrelle Pryor
3. Kellen Moore
4. Ryan Mallett
5. Mark Ingram
6. LaMichael James
7. DeMarco Murray
8. Andrew Luck
9. Taylor Martinez
10. Andy Dalton

Comments { 15 }

Mailbag

Dear HP,

A bit of friendly advice … you need to learn something about football before you “rank” conferences or teams.  Your rankings are not only a joke, but clearly prejudiced.  The Pac-10 is a laughable conference and the fact that you have 3 teams in the top 10 not only shows your ignorance but complete bias.  If you want to be taken seriously, then know something about football.  If you don’t believe me, then take your top 10 and conference rankings and set them aside and come back to them in 9 weeks.  My guess is the only Pac-10 team still standing is Oregon.  They’re legit, but the others wouldn’t even be .500 teams in the SEC or Big 12.

Dr. John McMillen
Clovis, CA

In deference to the clearly knowledgeable and unbiased doctor, here are my revised top team rankings:

1. Alabama

2. Florida

3. Texas

4. Auburn

5. Nebraska

6. Arkansas

7. Oklahoma

8. LSU

9. Oklahoma State

10. Alabama (they deserve two spots)

On the cusp: South Carolina, Tennessee, Baylor, Georgia, Kentucky, Colorado, Missisippi State, Iowa State, Vanderbilt, Kansas, Ole Miss, Kansas State, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Missouri.

There.  I hope I didn’t forget anyone.  Thanks for the friendly advice.  All better?

Comments { 11 }