Archive | October, 2010

The HP Heisman Watch, Week 8

Now for my list of the players who currently stand the best chance of actually winning the Heisman.  This is not a predicted order of the final vote, nor the order of how the vote would go if held today.  Some players not on this list are likely to receive support, but not enough to win. 

So, here is the HP Heisman Watch after eight weeks of football.  We are down to three players.  Barring injury, all three of them will make it to New York, but just one will win the 2010 Heisman:

1. Cameron Newton, QB, Auburn–It’s been quite a journey for Newton.  The last player to come straight from junior college and make such a splash in the Heisman race was O.J. Simpson, who finished a close second to Gary Beban in 1967.  Well, Newton’s 49-yard run against LSU was certainly Simpson-esque the way he weaved through the Tiger defense.    That run and the 217 rushing yards he put up on LSU has pushed him into the front of this watch list.  The Heisman is his to lose and, looking at Auburn’s remaining schedule, it looks like he’ll be in good shape in this race right up until the last game against Alabama.  I believe he can clinch the trophy by playing well against the Tide, win or lose.  If he leads the Tigers to a win there, followed by an SEC title game victory, he’ll capture the Heisman in a runaway.  If he plays well but Auburn loses to Alabama, he’ll still be the favorite heading into the ceremony, though the vote will be much closer.  If he plays poorly in the runup to that game, or the Tide defense shuts him down, that will open the door for other candidates to snatch the Heisman away from him.

Current Stats: 90/138 (65.2%), 1,364 yds, 13 TDs, 5 INTs, 172.1 rtg; 157 att, 1,077 rush yds (6.9 ypc), 14 TDs

Projected Season Stats*: 2,046 passing yds, 20 TDs, 8 INTs; 1,615 rush yds, 21 TDs

2. LaMichael James, RB, Oregon–James helped his cause by having a nice game in a romp over UCLA last Thursday (123 yards, 2 touchdowns), but whatever ground he gained in the race was given back after Newton’s performance against LSU.  James has a chance to get some of that momentum back this Saturday when the Ducks take on USC.  If he has a monster game against the Trojans and the Ducks roll, he’ll be in good shape.  However, the buzz around James pales in comparison to all the talk of Newton at the moment.  A modern day quarterback who can run and pass–and one who is a physical specimen at that–seems especially hard for voters to ignore.  James will have to be extra special from here on out if he wants to catch Newton. 

Current Stats: 134 att, 971 yards, 11 TDs, 7.2 ypc; 4 catches, 121 yards, 1 TD

Projected Season Stats*: 1,780 yards, 20 TDs; 7 catches, 207 yards, 2 TDs

3. Kellen Moore, QB, Boise State–Moore and his team were idle last week, but the Broncos have a Tuesday night matchup against Louisiana Tech.  Moore remains the candidate of last resort in that voters find him to be a perfectly acceptable choice but are not exactly rushing to proclaim him to be the most outstanding player just yet.    His campaign for the Heisman mirror his team’s quest for the BCS title.  It will require the more exciting players ahead of him to falter a bit for him to have a shot.  At the same time, he’s probably already assured himself of no worse than a third-place finish in the race.  He will appear on almost every ballot, so he’s within striking distance.  It helps that his numbers are quickly becoming ridiculous.  He leads the nation in passing efficiency with a mark of 190.36, which as it stands is an NCAA record.  Furthermore, he now has 55 touchdowns and just four interceptions in his last 20 games.  His record as a starter is 32-1 and BSU has now won 20-straight under his leadership.  It could well be that his numbers alone end up making his case–not to mention his status as the quarterback for an undefeated team–but it would really help him if the players ahead of him–especially Newton–screw up.  Also, I think Boise State’s sports information people need to start making the case for Moore, or all his impressive stats will get lost in the hubbub over Newton’s spectacular play.

Current Stats: 105/151 (69.5%), 1,567 yds, 16 TDs, 1 INTs, 190.36 rtg

Projected Season Stats*: 3,132 passing yards, 32 TDs, 2 INTs

*–Denotes projected stats at time of the Heisman vote

If the vote were held today

1. Cameron Newton

2. LaMichael James

3. Kellen Moore

4. Denard Robinson

5. Terrelle Pryor

6. Andrew Luck

7. Taylor Martinez

8. Justin Blackmon

9. Blaine Gabbert

10. Matt Barkley

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HP Fantasy Challenge, Week 8

Full results and leaderboard here.

Raw file of results here.

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Cameron Newton and the Heisman Trophy

Eight weeks into the season, Auburn’s Cameron Newton is the front runner to win the 2010 Heisman Trophy.

Playing well in big games in front of big audiences is the key to winning the Heisman and his performance against LSU has lifted his candidacy above the others in the race.  Now, the trophy is his to lose.

Newton is a unique figure in college football: He combines Vince Young’s size and escapability with Tim Tebow’s power running and toughness.  He’s not particularly refined as a passer, but he doesn’t need to be.  But when he does pass, he’s efficient, as his 172.08 passer rating attests.

At this rate, he would be the first quarterback since Eric Crouch of Nebraska in 2001 to win the Heisman primarily because of his running ability.  Here’s a look at his O.J.-like run through the LSU defense:

It’s this kind of run that is quickly cementing his status as a legend at Auburn, even if he is (essentially) eight games into his college career.

There are two other candidates in this race:  Oregon’s LaMichael James and Boise State’s Kellen Moore.  Barring a late-season surge by another candidate (or an unforeseen drop by the current ones), Newton, James and Moore look to be the three finalists heading to New York.

Newton’s path to the Heisman is somewhat favorable.  The Tigers play Ole Miss, Chattanooga and Georgia in the next three weeks.  I don’t think these teams will have much success in stopping him or Auburn, which means there could be an end-of-season showdown for all the marbles against Alabama on Nov. 26, a Thanksgiving Friday, with the whole country watching.

By then, it’s possible that Newton will have built up such a body of work, that a good performance in a loss might still snag him the Heisman.  Obviously, a win over the Tide would clinch it, not only because of the accolades and glory that would arise from beating a respected rival, but also because it would send Auburn to the SEC title game and give Newton another game to add to an already-impressive season resume.

Besides injury or a dropoff in performance, who or what can stop Newton from winning the Heisman? 

The answer to that is James and Alabama.  The nation’s leading rusher has a marquee matchup at USC next Saturday.  If he comes up big in that game, he’ll be able to keep pace with Newton. The race and the ensuing debate the rest of the season would probably boil down to:  Newton or James?  

As for Alabama, if the Tide defense completely shuts down Newton in that final game, sending the Tide to the SEC title game, then that opens the door for James or possibly Moore to win. 

But given his most recent performance and the hype that has come out of it, Newton holds all the cards in this race.  It would take a major stumble on his part or an unexpected Auburn loss for him to be knocked from his perch before that final matchup with ‘Bama.

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HP’s Top 10 Teams, Week 8

1. Oregon

2. Boise State

3. Auburn

4. TCU

5. Missouri

6. Michigan State

7. Utah

8. Alabama

9. Wisconsin

10. Stanford

On the cusp: Ohio State, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Arizona,  Oklahoma State

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Random Thoughts Heading Into The Weekend

There’s no doubt that Thursday night games are prime opportunities for Heisman candidates to highlight their abilities.  LaMichael James helped himself considerably last night by rushing for 123 yards and two touchdowns on 20 carries in front of a national audience.  Barring unforeseen collapses, or injuries, I think James, Kellen Moore and Cameron Newton are headed to New York.

*  *  *

Another neat thing about this year’s Heisman race is that it has featured not only some great players, but also some of the best offensive minds in college football.  If there is a better offensive scheme than Auburn’s under Gus Malzahn, it’s got to be Chip Kelly’s at Oregon or Chris Petersen’s at Boise State.  Each of these coaches spread the field in different ways and at different tempos, but the results are the same: Lots of points and yards, highly-efficient passing, running backs averaging a lot of yards per carry and explosive plays all over the place.

*  *  *

The Auburn-LSU game tomorrow is being billed as a case of a great offense going against a great defense.  But is LSU’s defense really that good?  Sure, the Tigers currently rank third nationally in yards allowed per game, but their opponents to date are ranked 63rd, 102nd, 55th, 64th, 97th and 91st in yards produced each game.  So LSU has built its reputation while not playing a single top-50 offense.  I think we’ll know just how good LSU’s defense really is after it plays Auburn, but I get the feeling that if Newton and Co. have a productive game offensively, there will be more marvel over how well it did against a ‘great’ defense, than realization that LSU wasn’t all that good to begin with.

*  *  *

One issue bound to come up again as we get closer to the Heisman ceremony is the checkered pasts of both Newton and James. 

Newton was arrested in November of 2008, on felony charges of burglary, larceny and obstruction of justice after allegedly purchasing a stolen laptop from a student at the University of Florida.  He was subsequently suspended by the team after the laptop was in fact found to be in his possession. All charges against Newton were dropped after he completed a court-approved pretrial diversion program.  He left Florida and went to Blinn JC before landing at Auburn.

To his credit, Newton has been very forthcoming about the incident–fully explained here:

Newton paid $120 and took possession of a computer valued at more than $1,000. He knows how stupid it sounds now. He also understands now that buying stolen property isn’t much better than stealing. “Knowing what I know now, would I have done it? No,” he said. “I wouldn’t even think twice about doing it. But I did it. I made my mistake.” 

Given his explanation and his openness about the issue, I don’t think Newton’s Heisman chances will be hurt too much by this.

As for James, he was arrested on charges of domestic violence this past February, the result of an argument with an ex-girlfriend that turned physical. The woman claimed he grabbed her by her neck and shoved her to the ground.

James spent two days in jail. He eventually pleaded guilty to a misdemeanor harassment charge and Ducks coach Chip Kelly suspended him for the opener.

We haven’t heard as much from James about the incident as we have from Newton about his.  In court, he did apologize, saying the victim bore no responsibility for the incident.

“I am so sorry that she has been treated by some people as though she deserved blame for this. She does not. I ask people to treat her with respect. She has not done anything wrong,” James said.

The full story on the incident paint a less sinister picture than just a cursory look at the charges:

“When the victim learned that the defendant had a female house guest from outside Oregon, she went to the defendant’s residence to speak with his guest,” according to the district attorney’s memo. “The house guest was alarmed, refused to let the victim into the residence, and subsequently called the defendant.

James arrived at his apartment and asked Siebenlist (the victim) to leave and “physically removed the victim from the area immediately in front of his residence door.”

While James held on to her arms, Siebenlist grabbed his necklace and told James she wouldn’t let go unless he let her go.

“During the ensuing push-and-pull, the defendant’s necklace broke and he became angry,” according to the DA.

James grabbed Siebenlist by her collar and pushed her against his car. Siebenlist got in James’ car and pulled his keys from the ignition. James grabbed Siebenlist to pull her from his car, but she kept his keys and ran from the car.

James, a Texas state champion sprinter in high school, caught up to her and grabbed her waist. The two fell into bark mulch on the ground.

James got his keys back, “ending the physical interaction,” the DA wrote. “The parties talked without further physical contact before the defendant drove away.”

Two days later, police arrested James, and he spent a day and a half in jail before being released with an electronic monitoring bracelet around his ankle — and the scrutiny of media from Eugene to Portland to ESPN on his case.

I think, in this case, his one-game suspension was appropriate and that the overall punishment fit the crime.  However, the full story seems to make the case that James is not a stereotypical brutish abuser of women.  It could well be that some Heisman voters won’t get the full story and will hold this incident against James, but I don’t think the numbers will be significant (although in a close race, you never know).

In both cases, the proper PR remedy for each school is to make both players accessible, to let them show off their good sides as much as possible and answer all appropriate questions about what happened.

*  *  *

Here’s an interesting look at non-conference scheduling in the BCS era.

Pretty clear which conferences are trying to skate by in the OOC portion of their slate.

*  *  *

Newton, Denard Robinson and Taylor Martinez are all on pace to easily break the NCAA record for rushing yards in a season gained by a quarterback.  The current record is held by Beau Morgan of Air Force, who rushed for 1,494 yards in 1996.  On the current pace (including bowl games), Newton would get 1,599 (1,722 if he plays in the SEC title game), Robinson would get 1,884 and Martinez would get 1,764 (assuming a Big 12 title game appearance).

The fact that three players are likely to break this mark will dilute its overall effect on the Heisman race.  If one player had done it, it would’ve been more impressive and given voters more reason to select that player.  Now, it’ll probably serve as a nice item on the resume, but not a clincher by itself.

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Picking This Week’s Games

I turned things around last week, going 6-4 against the spread–and was just a hair or two from going 8-2–and on the season I’m now 32-36-2.  Now for another go at it, all lines courtesy of DocSports.

UCLA (+27) at Oregon–UCLA is a schizophrenic team–you never know what you’re going to get–and I think they’ll put just enough together here to cover.  The Ducks will start fast, but bog down a bit in the second half.

Oregon 45, UCLA 21

Cincinnati (-7.5) vs. South Florida–Zach Collaros is quietly putting together a very good season, while B.J. Daniels has been a huge disappointment.  I think both trends continue here.

Cincinnati 31, South Florida 21

Notre Dame (-6.5) at Navy–I don’t see a Brian Kelly-coached ND team losing to Navy.  I think the Irish jump out quick and hold off the Middies in the second half.

Notre Dame 35, Navy 24

Indiana at Illinois (55.5 points)–I like the OVER here.  Two pretty good offenses in play with some good athletes.  Not a whole lot of defense between them, though Illinois’s front seven has played pretty well at times.

Illinois 42, Indiana 31

Arkansas (-9.5) vs. Ole Miss–The Razorbacks didn’t seem to skip a beat much when Ryan Mallett got hurt.  I can’t see the Rebels being able to slow them down regardles of who’s under center for the Razorbacks.

Arkansas 37, Ole Miss 24

Oklahoma (-3) at Missouri–The Sooners play well in high-profile Big 12 games like this one.  The Tigers have a potent offense, but the Sooners defense should be able to slow them down enough to win solidly.

Oklahoma 38, Missouri 24

Auburn (-6) at LSU–LSU’s defense is highly rated, but it hasn’t played an offense like Auburn’s yet.  And we can bet the LSU offense will have trouble getting out of its own way at times.  Tigers win!

Auburn 28, LSU 17

San Diego State (-23.5) at New Mexico–The Aztecs are turned around and are now the kind of respectable team that can easily handle the New Mexico’s of the world.  Ronnie Hillman has another big day and SDSU rolls.

SDSU 49, New Mexico 17

Texas (-21) vs. Iowa State–The Longhorns are feeling confident now after showing a lot of pride by going into Lincoln and handling the Cornhuskers.  I think the momentum will carry over against the Cyclones.

Texas 34, Iowa State 6

Penn State (-9.5) at Minnesota–The Nittany Lions have been anemic this year, but Minnesota is bad and probably reeling a bit after losing its coach.  PSU takes full advantage and wins easily.

Penn State 38, Minnesota 17

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The State of Alabama and the Heisman Trophy

 

When it comes to the Heisman, no state is hotter than Alabama.

In late September of last season, I predicted that the Crimson Tide’s Heisman drought would soon come to an end thanks to the amazing turnaround that Nick Saban had executed in Tuscaloosa.  For the first time in a long time, elite offensive talent was headed to ‘Bama and it was being used in a way more consistent with the wide-open attacks most recently in vogue in college football rather than the ‘three-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust’ mentality of yesteryear.  So I believed it was only a matter of time before Heismans arrived and, as it turns out, it was Mark Ingram who immediately reaped the benefits.

As we said from the getgo here at HP, Ingram was never going to win the Heisman in 2010.  He is likely to jet to the pros after this season, but the stage is now set for his backfield partner, Trent Richardson, to become a force in the Heisman voting in 2011.  With Ingram gone, Richardson will see increased carries,which should lead to a lot better production.  If Greg McElroy’s replacement–the highly-touted Phillip Sims, perhaps?–can be proficient and take some of the heat off the running game, then Richardson should have a monster season.  And down the road, if all goes as planned, Sims should be a candidate in his own right.

Even with all of this happening at Alabama, it may pale in comparison to what’s going on at Auburn. 

Longtime readers of this blog know that I’ve held Auburn offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn in the highest esteem for quite a while.  I think he’s hands-down the best offensive mind in college football.  And when he made his way to Auburn, I had no doubt that there would soon be Tiger quarterbacks and running backs in the Heisman conversation.  I even went so far last May as to call Cam Newton a Heisman darkhorse because of the Malzahn factor.  Well, it’s now mid-October and he leads the race.  

Newton will be the first in a line of Tiger players to challenge for the Heisman thanks to Malzahn’s tutelage.  Most likely, Newton heads to the NFL after this year–there’s no way a 6-6, 250-pounder with his skills isn’t a high first rounder–but there is plenty of talent on board that should shine in Auburn’s system in the years to come–and as long as Malzahn sticks around.

There is hotshot freshman running back Michael Dyer, who has shown flashes of brilliance while splitting time this season.  There is sophomore speedster Onterio McCalebb, who averages 7.3 yards per carry.  And at quarterback, the Tigers have bigtime recruit Kiehl Frazier coming in–and he’s a dual-threat talent in the mold of a Newton (though a bit smaller).  The point is, someone is going to emerge as a star in Malzahn’s system.  The only question is who?

Both Alabama and Auburn are on track for top 10 recruiting classes, so the talent is still on its way.   As long as Saban and Malzahn stick around to develop it, the state of Alabama could serve as the Heisman race’s ground zero for the better part of this decade.

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