If the Vote Was Held Today

1. Cameron Newton

2. Kellen Moore

3. LaMichael James

4. Andrew Luck

5. Andy Dalton

6. Justin Blackmon

7. Terrelle Pryor

8. Denard Robinson

9. Ryan Mallett

10. Tyrod Taylor

What positions have the most potential to change?

Not the top spot.  This race has been locked up by Newton.  And I believe that Moore is a comfortable second, though a huge game by James against Oregon State might cause the two to swap spots.  I think there is also a possibility that if James stinks up the joint against the Beavers, Luck–whose support has grown steadily these past couple weeks–might eat into his West Coast support enough to snag a trip to New York along with the main three contenders.  I think that Blackmon could very well end up in fifth, but my sense now is that Dalton will get extra props in the Southwest for his work in helping TCU go undefeated;  plus, OSU just lost.  Pryor and Robinson will both get some random support in the Midwest, with Pryor picking up a bit more due to the somewhat large Buckeye ex-Heisman contingent.  I think Taylor will get some residual support in the Mid-Atlantic while Ryan Mallett will get some stray votes down South.

We’ll see how the HP Heisman Poll jibes with these thoughts on Tuesday.

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About Heismanpundit

Chris Huston, A.K.A. ‘The Heisman Pundit‘, is a Heisman voter and the creator and publisher of Heismanpundit.com, a site dedicated to analysis of the Heisman Trophy and college football. Dubbed “the foremost authority on the Heisman” by Sports Illustrated, HP is regularly quoted or cited during football season in newspapers across the country. He is also a regular contributor on sports talk radio and television.

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14 Responses to If the Vote Was Held Today

  1. Dan Kelley November 29, 2010 at 6:50 am #

    I do not believe Cam Newton should even be eligible for thr Heisman. He was caught cheating at Florida, transferred to Binns Junior College. He stole a Laptop computer and when the police came to arrest him he threw it out the window. He later said he bought it from somone else. He said he told his father he would leave recruitment up to him which in my opnion gave him authority to act in his behalf. Obviously he has no ethics and has a history of dishonesty going back to high school in College Park. Surely a Heisman winner should have good character and not stain the greatest award in football.

  2. Ed Newman November 29, 2010 at 9:59 am #

    I guess this proves that numbers alone, even while playing for a traditional heisman power, just aren’t worth a lot. Otherwise Denard Robinson would at least get a trip to NYC. It’s often said but it’s true: it’s not his fault he plays for a team with a pathetic defense. The heisman is supposed to be for the best football player and even if it has evolved into being for the best offense skill position player it is hard to argue that Robinson doesn’t deserve to go to NY. His stats are absolutely comparable to Newton’s and he doesn’t have the talent around him that Newton has.

  3. Alex November 29, 2010 at 11:06 am #

    The funniest thing ever would be Cam not winning the award because of the eligibility questions, watching someone else win it for that reason, and then 5 years from now it comes out that person wasn’t actually eligible either. Or Cam eventually being exonerated and losing the award because of the perception that he must have been a part of this.

    As for Newton and Robinson having similar numbers, they really don’t. Newton’s been a part of 43 TDs this season while only throwing 6 picks. Robinson has been a part of “just” 30 TDs with 10 picks. Newton’s QB rating is over 30 points higher. If you don’t at least have the best numbers or play on one of the best teams, you don’t have a chance. I can’t see any point in my lifetime where someone with obviously lesser numbers on an 7-5 team won the award over a 12-0 player with superior numbers. It just doesn’t happen.

  4. Ed Newman November 29, 2010 at 12:25 pm #

    I don’t think Robinson should win it over Newton. But the numbers are similar enough to warrant a top 3 finish. No one had ever topped 1500/2000 before he did it. And he doesn’t play for La Tech or Hawaii, so it isn’t like it’s not legit.

  5. HP November 29, 2010 at 12:50 pm #

    I think that it’s possible to win if you play for a team that doesn’t win a lot. But I think in order to do so you really have to blow people out of the water stats wise.

    While it is true that Robinson is the first 2,000/1,500 guy, he probably won’t end up being the only guy to do so this season. The other guy who will end up there when it’s all through–or close enough to it–is Newton. And if both those factors are relatively equal, the guy with the undefeated team would win.

    But as I wrote a while back, if Robinson had gone for 2,000/2,000, I don’t think there would be any way he wouldn’t win, regardless of record. That’s just too impressive an accomplishment.

    I do think that if he had led the nation in rushing and thrown for 2,000, he’d be on his way to NYC. But there were just too many other alternatives, plus he really ran out of gas in the season’s second half.

  6. Alex November 29, 2010 at 3:07 pm #

    I think the relative lack of TDs hurt him a bit too. If he puts up the same numbers passing and rushing with ~40 total TDs he probably gets to NYC as well.

  7. Ed Newman November 29, 2010 at 5:31 pm #

    I also think that the voters will take the fact that he happened to “run out of gas” at the same time his opponents improved.

    Alec, I agree about TD’s. Not only would it have jumped off the stat page but if he had gotten to 40 TDs UM’s record would have been better too, so he would have been impossible to ignore on a 10-2 team.

  8. Hoops M November 29, 2010 at 6:24 pm #

    Why is Luck not getting more attention in the Heisman race? He’s the best QB I’ve seen in the past 30 years, and I’m not the only one saying that. Stanford is a top five team this year, and their offense is balanced, yet Luck still puts up good numbers.

  9. Sean November 30, 2010 at 11:53 am #

    How on earth is Luck the best QB you’ve seen in the 30 years- I mean unless you’re limiting yourself exclusively to the West Coast, and also eliminating anyone who played for USC? Because I can name 5 guys who played in the last 5 years who I’d take over Luck to play for a college football team: Tebow, Young, Leinart, Bradford, McCoy. Only the last one of those is even arguable.

  10. Ed Newman November 30, 2010 at 2:52 pm #

    I believe he means best pro prospect of the last 30 years, a claim I am hearing more and more from journalists and pro scouts.

  11. Roby November 30, 2010 at 9:52 pm #

    I still think P.Manning and M.Ryan were more polished NFL prospects coming out of college. Ryan was the most NFL-ready QB I have seen with with my own eyes. And Sam Bradford continues to impress. I think people were really high on him but were concerned about his shoulder. Good luck to Luck. He’s gonna need it in Buffalo.

  12. Ed Newman December 1, 2010 at 8:56 am #

    Ryan has proven to be a good pick but he was not considered a shoe-in coming out of college. The Falcons, who desperately needed a QB, thought long and hard about a lineman (Gerald McCoy if I remember right) before taking Ryan. He was polished but there were questions about his throwing ability as I recall. He did go third after all.

    The Colts never considered anyone but Manning but he had just a little baggage. Manning seemed to be able to make every throw and had a great pedigree, but there were major questions about his ability to “win the big one”. I don’t think he ever beat UF. He had some great talent around him but he lost a few bowl games and never won a Nat Championship. The “can’t win the big one” label continued to follow him in the NFL until he won the SB, and I’m not sure it won’t resurface before his career is over.

    Now I can’t judge Luck myself. I really have no idea. But from what I read he can make any throw, is really smart and polished, has a great pedigree (dad was a NFL QB) and has good size and pretty good mobilty. Plus he is seen as the biggest reason that perennial doormat Stanford is not only relevant again but in the Nat Championship discussion. These are the reasons some are calling him the best QB prospect since John Elway. Of course all the warts will come out during the combine and pre-draft workouts so that assessment could change.

  13. Socraticsilence December 2, 2010 at 11:17 am #

    The Manning thing is a bit unfair- it effectively punished his inability to win big games because he was good enough to get to them- whereas Luck gets a free pass because no one expects his team to win anything. I mean no offense but Manning’s Tennesse teams were at least as successful as Luck’s Stanford squads but Manning had the bad luck to be in the SEC at the same time as Danny Wuerffel and thus was always overshadowed from a numbers/team success standpoint- I have little doubt the same would be true of Luck if he’d played in the PAC-10 5 years ago in the midst of Leinarts run at USC.

  14. Ed Newman December 2, 2010 at 9:18 pm #

    Didn’t say it was fair, but I do believe it was how people felt at the time. Peyton joined a talented squad and performed very well but did not exceed expectations and never beat UF. Luck joined a bad team (4-8 in ’07, 5-7 in ’08) it subsequently became a NC contender (8-5 2009, 11-1 2010), far outdistancing expectations. That is the difference so far.

    It might be early to say this but I would bet that Tennessee’s talent was significantly better than Stanford’s talent is now. Tennessee did win the NC the year after Peyton left.