Archive | November, 2010

HP’s Top 10 Teams

By on November 21, 2010 in The HP Top 10 Teams

1. Boise State

2. TCU

3. Oregon

4. Auburn

5. Stanford

6. Oklahoma State

7. Wisconsin

8. Ohio State

9. Arkansas

10. Texas A&M

On the cusp: Virginia Tech, Nebraska, Michigan State, LSU, Alabama

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Hypothetical Heisman Scenario

By on November 19, 2010 in General CFB

What if Cameron Newton was declared to be ineligible at some point before the Heisman vote is due?  Who would win without Newton in the race?

This is what I’m trying to figure out.  My best sense is that it would be a dogfight between Kellen Moore and LaMichael James.

Stay tuned.

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Pac-10 Follies

By on November 19, 2010 in Uncategorized

Over the summer, HP reader MB produced some exhaustive research on program talent rankings over the last decade that shed a lot of light on which schools were doing the most (or least) with the players they had.  MB is back again now with a look at the recent expansion move by the Pac-10 and what it means for the conference and college football.

Recently the Pac 10 officially expanded to twelve teams (becoming the Pac 12) and announced the new divisional alignments, scheduling details and revenue sharing plan.

While many East of Denver did not pay much attention, this is the first step down a path that will likely end with four “super conferences” with 16 teams each.  Below are some comments and opinions on how this impacts the Pac 12 and how the Pac 12’s actions could impact the landscape of college football.  I would like to point out that much (if not
all) of the credit for the analysis of the 9 game conference schedule goes to a friend of the site we will call Hoya. Thanks Hoya.

Did the Pac 12 Get it Right?

In a word……”no”. The Pac 12 had a great opportunity to learn from what has worked and not worked in the SEC, Big 12, Big 10 and ACC (conferences with more than 10 teams).   Those conferences have pursued some smart and effective strategies to best position their conferences for competitive and economic success. The Pac 12 had tons of data available from those conferences about divisional splits, scheduling and revenue sharing…yet the Pac 12 managed to make some critical mistakes, mistakes that will cost the conference a ton of money and more importantly cost the conference the ability to equitably compete for BCS National Championships.

Continue Reading →

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A Sneak Peek at the Heisman Voting Regions

By on November 18, 2010 in Uncategorized

The Heisman voting is broken down into six regions comprised of 145 votes in the following states: 

Far West: AZ, CA, HI, ID, MT, ND, NV, OR, SD, UT, WA, WY
Mid Atlantic: DC, DE, MD, NC, NJ, PA, SC, VA, WV
Mid West: IA, IL, IN, MI, MN, OH, WI
North East: CT, MA, ME, NH, NYC, NY, RI, VT
South: AL, FL, GA, KY, LA, MS, TN
Southwest: AR, CO, KS, MO, NE, NM, OK, TX

Based on how the voting looks today, here’s how I see the regions shaking out:

Far West: 1. LaMichael James 2. Kellen Moore 3. Cam Newton 4. Andrew Luck

Notes: James and Moore should get the bulk of the West Coast vote, followed by Newton and then some stray votes for Luck.

Mid-Atlantic: 1. Cam Newton 2. Kellen Moore 3. LaMichael James

Notes: Newton wins solidly here, with Moore getting some good support thanks to his win over Virginia Tech.

Mid-West: 1. Cam Newton 2. LaMichael James 3. Kellen Moore 4. Terrelle Pryor 5. Denard Robinson

Notes: Standard ballot breakdown here, with Pryor and Robinson picking up some stray votes.

Northeast: 1. Cam Newton 2. LaMichael James 3. Kellen Moore 4. Pryor

Notes: The Northeast usually goes with the biggest star of the bunch.

South: 1. Cam Newton 2. LaMichael James 3. Kellen Moore 4. Marcus Lattimore/Patrick Peterson/Ryan Mallett

Notes: Newton wins handily here, of course.  Lattimore, Peterson and maybe Mallett pick up some support here and there.

Southwest: 1. LaMichael James 2. Cam Newton 3. Justin Blackmon 4. Andy Dalton 5. Kellen Moore 6. Andrew Luck

Notes: James is a Texas native, which should help him carry the region narrowly over Newton.  There should be lots of stray votes picked up here by Blackmon, Dalton, Moore and Houston native Luck.

It all points to Newton winning four of the six regions, which would give him a solid win.  Of course, this is not taking into account any further developments in the allegations surrounding him.

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Picking This Week’s Games

By on November 18, 2010 in Uncategorized

I really should just give up doing these picks.  I went an abysmal 3-7 last week and now stand at 48-59-3 against the spread for the year.  Sigh.  Maybe I should switch to NFL betting.  So if you want picks to actually bet on, maybe try Bruce Feldman at ESPN.com–he’s nine over .500 on the season.  Well anyway, here’s the next round, with lines courtesy of Betus.com. 

UCLA (+2) at Washington–The Bruins traditionally play very well up in Seattle.  I think Jake Locker will show his rust and struggle against UCLA.  Outright win for the Bruins.

UCLA 20, Washington 16

Tennessee (-9) at Vanderbilt–The Volunteers are still in line for a bowl berth if they can win out.  They seem to have found their quarterback of the future in Tyler Bray.  I like them to win handily here.

Tennessee 35, Vandy 17

Maryland (+4) vs. Florida State–The Noles have not looked good these last four games, while Maryland is on a bit of a roll of late.  I like the Terrapins to cover and get the outright win at home.

Maryland 26, Florida State 21

Wisconsin (-4) at Michigan–To me, this seems like the easiest pick of the day.  I just can’t see any way that Michigan’s pathetic defense can stop the Badgers.  And Wisky should be able to slow down Michigan just enough to pull away. 

Wisconsin 45, Michigan 28

Ohio State (-3) at Iowa–The Buckeyes are playing really well, especially on defense.  I think they’ll shut down the Hawkeyes and Terrelle Pryor will have a good all-around day.

Ohio State 28, Iowa 12

Oklahoma State (-24) at Kansas–The Cowboys have one of the new juggernaut offenses in college football.  The Jayhawks will have their hands full with Weeden, Blackmon and Hunter.

Oklahoma State 55, Kansas 20

Arkansas (-3) at Mississippi State–The Bulldogs won’t be able to keep up with the high-powered Razorbacks.  Another big day from Ryan Mallett and Knile Davis.

Arkansas 42, Mississippi State 24

Stanford (-6.5) at Cal–It’s always tough to pick a rivalry game, but I don’t trust Cal to put together two good defensive performances in a row.  The Bears are woeful on offense and Andrew Luck should have a big game here in the Big Game.

Stanford 31, Cal 13

Texas A&M (+2.5) vs. Nebraska–The Aggies are the hottest team in the Big 12, so I’m not going to pick against them.  Nebraska is off rhythm a bit offensively, which should help the Aggie defense.

Texas A&M 28, Nebraska 27

Navy vs. Arkansas State (OVER 63.5)–These are two teams that are pretty good at finding ways to score points.  That’s why I like the OVER in this one, with Navy getting the win.

Navy 48, Arkansas State 38

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Midweek Musings

By on November 17, 2010 in General CFB

I don’t blame Auburn for playing Cam Newton.  To me, it’s an educated gamble.  If Newton is later found to be ineligible, then the Tigers’ season is shot regardless.  Holding him out of the last couple games wouldn’t change that fact.  If the allegations produce nothing conclusive, then they’re in the clear.  If a few months from now he is declared ineligible, then Auburn may have to vacate a BCS title.  But it’d still have the AP title–just like the 2004 USC team does–and they’d still be able to claim they were the real champs–a notion many people would accept.  Without Cam Newton, it wouldn’t be possible for Auburn to be in the title conversation anyway, so there’s really not much to lose, unless the NCAA decides to punish Auburn with heavy sanctions in the future.  Even then, some might feel this to be worth a brief, shining moment of glory.

*  *  *

If I had to guess what’s going to happen, I’d say that there will be no action on the Cam Newton allegations before the Heisman ceremony.  And if that’s the case, he’ll win the Heisman.  But the presence of the allegations will probably delay my traditional ‘call’ on the winner until the end of the voting period.  Otherwise, I’d have already called the race for Newton. 

*  *  *

Could Alabama give Heisman voters a way out?  I reckon that the allegations of pay for play have caused about 20 percent of Newton’s support to wither away.  Not enough to sink his Heisman hopes, but not insignificant either.  There’s another solid chunk of voters who are a bit nervous about the situation, but are inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt if nothing else pops up.  But if the Tide completely shuts Newton down and the Tigers lose, some of these voters might feel more inclined to vote for someone else who doesn’t have the same perceived baggage.  Of course, Newton has an ace-in-the-hole (the SEC title game) which could enable him to bring those voters back in the fold.

*  *  *

Could Justin Blackmon make it to New York?  I don’t think so, unless the Newton allegations end up creating a need for more finalists.  We know he’ll have the Biletnikoff Trophy in tow if he does make it.  He’s having one of the best seasons ever by a receiver, as evidenced by his leading the nation in big plays.  He has a remarkable eight plays of 40 yards or more and 54 of 10 yards or more.

*  *  *

I know Marcus Lattimore is a very good player, but can we hold off on anointing him the next big thing until he at least manages to break the five yards per carry mark on the season?  That’s pretty much a standard requirement in these days of spread offenses.  He’s not in the top 100 rushers in this category.

* *  *

One thing is for sure:  It’s been a great Heisman race, controversy or no.  Each of the three finalists are having excellent statistical seasons.  In any other year, players like Blackmon, Terrelle Pryor or Denard Robinson might be finalists as well, but they are well back in the pack.  The depth of this year’s campaign bodes well for 2011′s race, with Moore, Pryor and Robinson all back for sure, not to mention emerging stars like Lattimore,  Robert Griffin, Brandon Weeden, Darron Thomas, Aaron Murray and Matt Barkley.

*  *  *

Why is TCU my No. 1 team?  Simple.  I think the Horned Frog defense could at least slow down the Auburn and Oregon attacks.  And the TCU offense would probably move the ball against the Duck and Tiger defenses.  I’m not sure any other defense out there can do that, while still having enough offense to get involved in a shootout.

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Heisman Pic of the Day

By on November 17, 2010 in Heisman History

Dick Kazmaier, Heisman ’51, is carried off the field by his teammates after his final game at Princeton, a 13-0 home win over Dartmouth.

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