For the second-straight year, the Heisman Trophy winner was the top pick in the NFL draft. That makes 19 Heisman winners who have been taken No. 1.
But should Cam Newton have been the first player drafted?
Let me qualify things by first making clear my opinion of the NFL. Unlike most pundits, I do not believe that the style of football played in the league is necessarily the best in existence. The NFL does have more elite players or, to be more exact, fewer bad players, than the college ranks, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that the brand of football is superior.
I prefer the college game in large part because of the numerous innovations that take place there. College football is dominated by systems, primarily on the offensive side of the ball. Not taking into this into account–as often happens–leaves out a large part of the storyline when it comes to describing the sport.
That all said, one has to be a realist when it comes to projecting the abilities of college players to the NFL. The fact is, NFL offenses are largely homogeneous. There are a few exceptions and because of the rise of the spread in the college game, there has been some trickle-up effect when it comes to style. But most teams run variations on the standard West Coast Offense.
Since many pundits and fans assume the NFL is the highest form of football, they assume the offenses are the be-all and end-all of the sport and, so, we get statements like this from Tom Luginbill:
As many strengths as the spread offense has, and it has many, it has hindered the development of quarterbacks. The essential principles of productive quarterback play [footwork, balance, transfer of weight and timing] are often compromised in the spread.
Luginbill’s statement is only true as it pertains to the current dominant NFL offensive style. Yes, the spread does not prepare quarterbacks for playing in the West Coast Offense. Why should it? The West Coast Offense doesn’t prepare a quarterback for any other system, either. Try to put Peyton Manning in the Wishbone and he would look bad. As a quarterback, you are in the system you are in and you either do well or you don’t do well in it. And call me silly, but to me the essential principles of productive quarterback play are points and yards accumulated through the air and on the ground, not procedural elements like footwork and timing. You know what makes a quarterback productive? Production. The spread has not compromised that–on the contrary, it has augmented it to an almost ridiculous level at the quarterback position.
Nonetheless, many NFL offensive coaches refuse to adapt to the new styles. In effect, the teams in the league have a protectionist employment policy in place, with the grizzled old coaches–and often their offspring–being the beneficiaries. The playbooks are huge and perplexing. Many of the plays are long paragraphs that couldn’t fit in a Tweet. As a result, the complexity of the scheme requires coaches who can teach it. If NFL teams actually drafted spread quarterbacks and let them run the spread or variations of it, with all the simplicity it entails, they’d be out of a job. By running the same convoluted offense that most of the other teams run, it not only inoculates the coaches from blame over the system they choose to run (“Hey, we ran the same system as the Super Bowl champs, it can’t be the system’s fault!”), but it allows easy access to employment with another team when the inevitable firing happens.
The problem is that most college teams no longer run NFL-style offenses. So that means the pool of draftable quarterbacks who know the West Coast Offense is dwindling. Common sense would dictate that you should then adjust your offense to fit the talent that is available to you. But that’s not the NFL way. The spread and other exotic college systems are a threat to their way of life. Instead, they draft spread quarterbacks with the intent of reconstructing them to be under-center, pocket passers. Why let Cam Newton gain a first down on a designed run or scramble when you can take years to teach him to restrain his athleticism, stay in the pocket, take a 7-step drop, so he can throw a 6-yard pass to a tight end 5-yards away who can then fall forward for a 4-yard gain, thus putting the punt team in a much better position? Ah, the league.
With that all said, and in the context of this discussion, it’s pure folly to make Cam Newton the No. 1 pick unless you are going to let him be Cam Newton and not try to turn him into something he is not. Would you hire Elvis at your night club and tell him to sing jazz? Of course not.
That doesn’t mean Cam Newton can’t be a good NFL-style quarterback. But it will take time, which is something most coaches don’t have. And I don’t think someone who needs a lot of time to be an NFL quarterback is worthy of the No. 1 pick.
Beyond all these issues, I’m also not sure Newton has the mental make up to make it in the NFL. Could he be a superstar? Absolutely. But he could also quit five games into his career. Observing him at the Heisman ceremony, something was just off about the guy.
He’s an incredible talent and his upside is amazing, but the NFL is a different animal than college. Not a good pick by the Panthers.










ed newman
Overall you make many good points. But to counter–occasionally maverick coaches in the NFL do try something different like the Run & Shoot. So far these exotic offenses haven’t produced championships. It doesn’t mean they should stop trying, but it does mean there are reasonable explanations why coaches don’t adopt these systems.
“By running the same convoluted offense that most of the other teams run, it not only inoculates the coaches from blame over the system they choose to run (“Hey, we ran the same system as the Super Bowl champs, it can’t be the system’s fault!”), but it allows easy access to employment with another team when the inevitable firing happens.”
This may be a consequence but I don’t believe it is the reason teams don’t try to revolutionize their systems. Coaches in the NFL are going to get paid not based on the system they run nor for their coaching “genius” but for wins. If a new system gets them wins, regardless of its simplicity, coaches will use it. If everyone is running an effective simple offense then the differentiators for coaches will switch from Xes and Os to other attributes like motivating abilities, training staffs, drafting, etc. But the winners will still get paid like they are today. So why aren’t coaches switching to the spread? There are a few possible reasons:
1. they are just stupid and stubborn. I don’t buy this answer. The stakes are too high.
2. they consider the spread to be a greater injury risk to their key offensive players. I could believe this based on the injury history in the NFL to running QBs. Unlike college where the gap between the best teams and the worst teams is large, in the NFL the gap is so much smaller that even within a spread system subbing a C-talent QB for an A-talent QB is easily the difference between making and missing the playoffs. I maintain that in pro style offenses subbing C-talent for A-talent is not as devastating (see NY Giants with Hostettler and Simms, Pittsburgh with Batch and Roethlisberger) nor would it be as frequent as in the spread.
3. Given the history of exotic offenses in the league, the probability that the spread would both work and produce a championship is too low to take the risk. Going to the spread is an all-in move. The first team to do it will either rule the league for 3-5 years until other teams can catch up, or sit in the cellar for 10 years while they revamp their personnel twice (once to change to the spread and once to change back). I think when you look at it this way it is an owner/management decision, not a coaching decision. I would not blame the coaches.
JT
Totally agree with you HP. The NFL is more about playing it safe and not screwing up more than it is about innovating and taking chances.
What I find really interesting about Newton as he entered this year’s draft was how he got to be the No. 1 pick running the same offense at Auburn that Tebow ran at Florida, yet all anyone could do with Tebow was question his ability and doubt whether he would make it in the NFL much less whether he deserved being picked in the first round.
Newton and Tebow are basically the same player. Newton may have more athleticism than Tebow as Tebow would be more likely to run you over than make you miss, but both put up gaudy numbers on the ground. Newton piled up over 1,400 yards rushing in his Heisman season (2010), while Tebow ran for just under 900 in his (2007).
As far as passing goes, in their Heisman years Tebow actually had better passing numbers than Newton (3,286 yds for Tebow vs. 2,589 yds. for Newton) and more passing touchdowns than Newton (Tebow threw 32 TDs while Newton threw 28 TDs) in one less game (Newton played in 13 games in 2010 while Tebow only played in 12 in 2007).
Finally, Tebow played four years at Florida while Newton only had one season at Auburn, so scouts got to see A LOT more of Tebow than they did of Newton. They were able to dissect Tebow more (and that terrible throwing motion of his) than Newton, but they were also able to see Tebow’s high-quality character vs. Newton’s less-than-stellar character.
In the end, both of these great college players will need to adapt their games to fit the current vanilla NFL schemes which is a shame.
NBA fan
http://lockersmash.com/2011/05/time-for-derrick-rose-to-bring-it/