A crazy weekend of games had a profound impact on the Heisman race…

– The big winner from this weekend when it comes to the Heisman was Andrew Luck. Losses by Wisconsin and Oklahoma dealt severe blows to his two major quarterback challengers, Russell Wilson and Landry Jones. Had OU and/or Wisconsin gone undefeated, it would’ve provided a powerful incentive for some voters to pick those players over Luck. Now, their road back to the top is much tougher.

– Some are going to be tempted to conclude that Trent Richardson’s 77 yards rushing against Tennessee is somehow harmful to his Heisman hopes. It was not. What matters to his Heisman hopes right now is how he performs two Saturdays from now against LSU. The past is merely prologue to that clash of the titans.

– What about players like Kellen Moore and Case Keenum, who both hit NCAA marks this past weekend? Do they have a chance to win right now? Sorry, but they really don’t. It’s the unfortunate reality of the Heisman that players from non-BCS schools tend to get overlooked. However, Moore and Keenum are well-known, well-respected players who will probably get a considerable amount of Heisman support (one or both could even make it to New York) but just not enough to actually win.

– Every year we see late-breaking runs at the Heisman. They are rarely successful, but they often result in invitations to New York and a nice set up for the next season. Who can make it to New York (but not win) with a strong second half? Outside of the candidates we’ve been talking about (and who can still win), here’s my list of players with the best shot at a late run to the Big Apple:

Kellen Moore, Boise State
Tajh Boyd, Clemson
Tyrann Mathieu, LSU
Brandon Weeden, Oklahoma State
LaMichael James, Oregon
Case Keenum, Houston

If I had to guess right now who’s going to New York, I’d say: Luck and Richardson are the only sure things.  That’s how fluid the race is at this point.

– What about a Heisman race reset? Is that possible?

For those who haven’t been reading this blog over the years, the ‘reset’ is a scenario in which all the candidates from all the teams hit a road bump, assumptions about the field are adjusted and the race is ‘reset’ to a new state.

This scenario occurred several times in 2007.  Teams just kept losing, players kept having disastrous outings, and in the end, a true sophomore on a team with 3 losses (at the time of the vote) was able to win.  Mind you, that year was a year where the national champ had 2 losses, so having a Heisman winner on a 3-loss team wasn’t as drastic by comparison.

We are partially to a ‘reset’ as we speak. Landry Jones and Russell Wilson’s teams have suffered losses. So, too, has Robert Griffin III’s. Oregon’s candidates have fallen by the wayside. The only unsullied candidates with a real chance to win are Luck and Richardson. What if both these players have an off game and Stanford and Alabama both lose? That could open the way for a chaotic last month and the emergence of a dark horse.

However, I still think that Luck would easily survive one loss on his resume, assuming no other player tops him in that area, as well as statistically. Stanford would probably need to fall at least twice for Luck to lose this one, that’s how strong he has positioned himself at this point.

– The current race almost always produces a front runner for the following year. We know Luck is gone, win or lose. I think it’s a safe bet that Richardson, LaMichael James, Jones and several other potential candidates will head to the NFL.

Assuming they return for another year, I see the following players as the front runners for 2012:

Robert Griffin III
Tajh Boyd
Denard Robinson
Geno Smith
Keith Price
Marcus Lattimore
Michael Dyer
Lamar Miller
Sammy Watkins
Robert Woods

– Lastly, he’s not going to win the Heisman, but how about some accolades for perhaps the most underrated player in college football, Kansas State quarterback Collin Klein?  It’s been a long time since I’ve seen a player improve as much as he has from last year to this one and the result has been a 7-0 start for the Wildcats. He’s always been a pretty good runner, but this year he has been masterful directing the KSU offense and he’s already got 670 yards and 14 touchdowns on the ground to show for it. In the passing game, it’s like night and day compared to last season (when he had just 138 yards passing), as he’s thrown for 934 yards with 8 TD passes and just 3 picks. If K-State can survive the next three weeks, he may have as good a Heisman case as anyone…

With the season at the mid-way point, let’s take a peak at the top five candidates for the Heisman and see where their numbers project to at the time of the Heisman ceremony.

These numbers assume that Luck, Wilson and Richardson will be able to take advantage of a 13th game as a result of playing in their respective conference title matchups. Of course, the Big 12 does not have such a game this year, which means Jones and Griffin must make due with 12 games.

Andrew Luck

3,731 passing yards
39 TD passes
7 INTs
71.3%
180.55 rating
120 rushing yards
2 rushing TDs
41 total TDs

Comment: These numbers are easily Heisman worthy. The 39 TD passes would break the Pac-12 record and the efficiency rating would be within reach of Colt Brennan’s NCAA record of 186.0. These numbers would be especially impressive considering (1) Luck does not really have a go-to receiver and (2) the Stanford offense tends to focus on its power running game most of the time. Makes you wonder what his numbers would look like if he threw the ball more than 30 times per game (by comparison, Landry Jones and Case Keenum average about 40 throws per game).

Trent Richardson

1,693 rushing yards
28 rushing TDs
28 receptions
332 receiving yards
2 receiving TDs
86 KO return yards
2,106 all-purpose yards
30 total TDs scored

Comment: The most impressive stat in this Heisman-worthy group–assuming the pace is kept– is the 30 total touchdowns, the kind of number that routinely wins Heismans for well-known running backs from traditional powers. The rushing yardage is a bit on the low end, but it would be considerably better than Mark Ingram’s 1,542 yards in 2009. If Richardson can pick up the pace just a little bit in the second half of the season, his chances will improve.

Russell Wilson

3,367 passing yards
30 passing TDs
2 INTs
74.2%
210.94 rating
394 rushing yards
4 rushing TDs
1 receiving TD
35 total TDs

Comment: These are very impressive, Heisman-worthy numbers. The passer rating would shatter the NCAA record set by Brennan and would probably be the top rationale for giving Wilson the Heisman. The TD-to-INT ratio would also pop out to Heisman voters, as would the completion percentage. This would easily be the best season for a quarterback in the history of the Big Ten, which would count for a lot in the minds of Heisman voters.

Robert Griffin III

3,900 passing yards
44 passing TDs
4 INTs
78.1%
205.13 rating
590 rushing yards
4 rushing TDs
48 total TDs

Comment: Amazing numbers all across the board. NCAA records for passer rating and completion percentage, plus an ungodly 44-4 TD-to-INT ratio. The 48 total touchdowns accounted for would bring Griffin into the region charted by Tebow and Bradford in recent seasons. These are Heisman worthy numbers and voters would have to take them into serious consideration when choosing their ballot.

Landry Jones

4,344 passing yards
32 passing TDs
12 INTs
67.6%
156.0 rating
4 rushing TDs

Comment: These are good, solid Heisman-like numbers for any other year, but they tend to pale in comparison to the other players on this list. However, keep in mind that Jones has the opportunity to run the table against an impressive slate of foes in the season’s second half, so his stats might look better in that context. If he picks up the pace by increasing his touchdowns and lowering his picks, then he’ll be more formidable than he currently projects.

Time for a look at week seven of the 2011 Heisman race.

Below is my personal list of the players who currently stand the best chance of actually winning the Heisman, based on season-long projections (rather than the current prevailing wind).

This is not a predicted order of the final vote, nor the order of how the vote would go if held today.  Some players not on this list are likely to receive support from the Heisman electorate, just not enough to actually win it.

Remember, this is my own analysis of how I believe the race is, not how it should be. From how I see things at the halfway point of the season, there are only FIVE players who stand a legitimate chance of winning the 2011 Heisman Trophy. I truly believe one of these five players will be the guy:

1. Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford – It’s been a relative breeze so far for Luck, but now he will be put to the test as Stanford begins to enter into the meat of its schedule. He has handled all the pressure of being the front runner with characteristic cool and has performed very well so far. The hype surrounding him has been steady but not overbearing and, as yet, I can discern no backlash against him (which is often a problem for the preseason favorite). Can he keep it up into the second half of the season? If so, he’ll win Stanford’s second Heisman.

Last Week against Washington State: 23 of 36, 336 yards, 4 TDs, 1 INT

Next Opponent: Washington

Season: 129 of 181, 1,719 yards, 71.3%, 18 TDs, 3 Ints., 180.55 rating

2. Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama – Richardson’s monster game against Mississippi–along with that nifty 76-yard touchdown run–could turn out to be the catalyst for a second-half surge to the Heisman. So far, he’s been outstanding, notching six 100-yard games while scoring 16 total touchdowns. As long as he stays healthy, it looks like the numbers will be there for him. Furthermore, the LSU game will provide the perfect setting–perhaps the only setting–to enable him to catapult over an otherwise-high-performing Luck and into the lead for the trophy. Will the Heisman stay in the state of Alabama for the third year in a row?

Last Week against Mississippi: 17 carries for 183 yards, 4 TDs, 2 catches, 30 yards

Next Opponent: Tennessee

Season: 132 carries, 912 yards, 6.91 ypc, 15 TDs, 15 catches, 179 yards, 1 TD

3. Russell Wilson, QB, Wisconsin – The constraints of the Wisconsin system when it comes to quarterback play were on display in the blowout win over Indiana, as Wilson was relatively quiet compared to previous games. Wisconsin didn’t really need him to do too much, so he played an efficient, understated game. He did catch a touchdown pass, though, which naturally made the late-night highlight reels. Dropping him to third here is less a reflection on what he did (or didn’t do) and more a testament to the strength of Richardson. A big game against Michigan State this week, however, could serve to reshuffle the race.

Last Week against Indiana: 12 of 17, 166 yards, 1 TD, 42 yards rushing, 1 TD catch

Next Opponent: Michigan State

Season: 95 of 128, 74.2%, 1,557 yards, 14 TDs, 1 INT, 210.94 rating, 24 carries, 182 yards, 2 TDs

4. Landry Jones, QB, Oklahoma – When I look at Jones compared to the other four candidates in this race, I don’t see him as being on the same level. However, he is an outstanding quarterback for a national title contending team that just so happens to be a preeminent Heisman power. Jones will be in several high-profile games in the last half of the season, which means he has a chance to get on a roll and show voters that he is worthy of the trophy. If OU goes undefeated and Jones’ stats are impressive, he could win this if Luck and Richardson (or their teams) fall by the wayside.

Last Week against Kansas: 29 of 48, 363 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT

Next Opponent: Texas Tech

Season: 171 of 253, 67.6%, 2,177 yards, 16 TDs, 6 INTs, 156.00 rating

5. Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor – The power of Griffin III is in his numbers. They are currently better than anyone else’s in the race. He has the potential to break several NCAA records, including the marks for pass efficiency and completion percentage. As long as his numbers remain above and beyond all the other candidates and Baylor goes on to have at least an 8 or 9 win season, then he’s got a chance to finish on top if some of the other players ahead of him falter. If Griffin III’s numbers fall back down to earth in the second half of the season, he’ll have zero chance to win. But if he can keep up this incredible pace while also acting as a giant slayer against an Oklahoma or Oklahoma State, look out.

Last Week againstTexas A&M: 28 of 40, 430 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT

Next Opponent: Oklahoma State

Season: 143 of 183, 78.1%, 1,950 yards, 22 TDs, 2 INT, 205.13 rating, 72 carries, 295 yards, 2 TDs

If the vote were held today

1. Andrew Luck

2. Trent Richardson

3. Russell Wilson

4. Robert Griffin III

5. Kellen Moore

6. Landry Jones

7. Brandon Weeden

8. Tyrann Mathieu

9. Case Keenum

10. Tajh Boyd