What I saw in week seven, plus some mid-season awards:

The Big Winner

– Trent Richardson has begun to make his move for the Heisman after ripping Ole Miss for 183 yards and 4 TDs. The schedule sets up nicely for Richardson, as he gets a monster matchup with No. 1 LSU in three weeks and then can look forward to closing out the season with high profile games against Auburn and (potentially) against the SEC East champ in the SEC title game. Obviously, beating LSU is paramount, as it gives him a 13th regular season game to accumulate stats and to impress the voters.

Holding Steady

– Andrew Luck started out slow but closed fast, throwing for 336 yards and 4 TDs (with one pick) against Washington State. I expect he’ll remain comfortably on top of the Heisman race for now, though there is potential for some road blocks ahead on the schedule as he plays No. 22 Washington and then USC in the next two weeks.

– Russell Wilson had a quiet week with just 166 yards and a touchdown against Indiana.  He did, however, catch a TD pass and, naturally, that made all the highlight reels. I expect he’ll remain in the top three of the race for the time being, but sometimes the constraints of the Wisconsin system is going to result in games like this one. The key to his Heisman hopes may lie in the next two weeks when Wisconsin takes on No. 16 Michigan State and Ohio State.

– Even though Baylor lost, I don’t think Robert Griffin III will lose too much ground in the race after throwing for 430 yards and 3 TDs against Texas A&M. Essentially, his is a numbers candidacy. As long as his statistics retain their majesty in comparison to the rest of the field, he’ll be a factor. Too bad Baylor doesn’t have a defense.

– All people will see is the box score, but Oklahoma had to work hard to make it look easy against Kansas. Landry Jones had 363 yards and 3 TDs (with an interception) and he remains the candidate with the most late-season potential. He’s like the race horse that sits back in the pack, waiting to make his move. He’ll get plenty of opportunities, with games against Kansas State, Texas A&M and Oklahoma State still to come. Too bad that Big 12 title game isn’t there to give him an extra chance to impress voters.

Down for the Count

– Time to turn the lights out on the Denard Robinson for Heisman campaign. It’s not just that his team lost, it’s that he didn’t look good in the process. If he rebounds the rest of the way and leads Michigan to a fine season, I think he can get his share of votes, but I don’t believe he can win.

– Obviously Marcus Lattimore’s injury could end up costing a lot more than the Heisman, as his loss puts a real crimp in South Carolina’s season. He’ll be back next year and will likely feature prominently in preseason Heisman talk.

Random Note and Observations

We are half way through the season so I thought I’d give some shout outs:

Best Team — Alabama

I don’t think this one is close. As good as LSU’s defense is, I think the Tide are better. This could end up being one of the top defenses in the history of college football before it’s through. And having Trent Richardson on the other side of the ball helps, too.

Best Player — Robert Griffin III, Baylor

Griffin has been incredible so far this season. His accuracy as a passer is scary and he has the arm strength to make every throw imaginable. Add in his overall football intelligence, his leadership, his coolness under pressure and his running ability and you have what I consider to be a near-perfect quarterback. This season, he’s on pace to throw for 3,900 yards and 44 TDs with just 4 interceptions. As good as some other players have been, he’s been better.

Top Defender — Tyrann Mathieu, LSU

It’s rare for a defensive player to make so many game-changing plays the way Mathieu has so far this season. He’s recovered 3 fumbles, forced another 4 and intercepted 2 passes (and broken up 5 more). He is second on LSU in tackles with 42 and also has 5 tackles for loss and 1.5 sacks. He’s also scored 2 TDs. For most defenders, this is a good season, but he’s done it in seven games. What’s more, he’s the heart and soul of a great defense and you know if a play has to be made, he’ll make it.

Best Freshman — Sammy Watkins, Clemson

Watkins might be the best freshman receiver I’ve seen in a long, long time. He’s not only a physical specimen who can stretch the field, but also a natural receiver with soft hands and excellent timing. To date, he’s got 46 catches for 728 yards and 8 scores. He’s also rushed for 127 yards and is averaging nearly 31 yards  per kick return (with one score). He is ninth nationally in all-purpose yards per game. This guy is special and I look forward to watching him in the coming years.

Time for a look at week six of the 2011 Heisman race.

Below is my personal list of the players who currently stand the best chance of actually winning the Heisman, based on season-long projections (rather than the current prevailing wind).

This is not a predicted order of the final vote, nor the order of how the vote would go if held today.  Some players not on this list are likely to receive support from the Heisman electorate, but not enough to actually win it.

Remember, this is my own analysis of how the race is, not how it should be. From how I see things as we approach the halfway point of the season, there are only SIX players who stand a legitimate chance of winning the 2011 Heisman Trophy. I truly believe one of these six players will be the guy:

1. Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford – Luck continues to put up impressive numbers as expected. He’s already logged his ‘Heisman Moment’ for the year and will likely coast for a while until the schedule gets more challenging. His last five games are against USC, Oregon State, Oregon, Cal and Notre Dame and how he plays in them will determine whether he gets the Heisman or not.

Last Week against Colorado: 26 of 33, 370 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT

Next Opponent: Washington State

Season: 106 of 145, 1,383 yards, 73.1%, 14 TDs, 2 Ints., 182.32 rating

2. Russell Wilson, QB, Wisconsin – The Badgers had off last week, but the win over Nebraska continued to reverberate. Wisconsin now has a pretty good shot at running the table, which is why Wilson moves up to No. 2.

Next Opponent: Indiana

Season: 83 of 111, 74.8%, 1,391 yards, 13 TDs, 1 INT, 216.90 rating, 22 carries, 140 yards, 2 TDs

3. Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama – Richardson had a solid game against Vanderbilt and is on pace for 22 touchdowns on the season. I’d like to see him turn it on a bit more in the next couple weeks. However, the key to his Heisman hopes lies in the matchup with LSU in early November.

Last Week against Vanderbilt: 19 carries for 107 yards, 1 TD

Next Opponent: Mississippi

Season: 115 carries, 729 yards, 6.34 ypc, 11 TDs, 13 catches, 149 yards, 1 TD

4. Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor – Griffin III pulled out his wheels and rolled up his first 100-yard rushing game of the season against Iowa State. His passing numbers have come down to earth a bit along with his Heisman hopes, but back-t0-back games with Texas A&M and Oklahoma State give him a shot at redemption.

Last Week against Iowa State: 22 of 30, 212 yards, 1 TD, 24 carries, 107 rushing yards, 1 TD

Next Opponent: Texas A&M

Season: 115 of 143, 80.4%, 1,520 yards, 19 TDs, 1 INT, 212.15 rating, 60 carries, 280 yards, 2 TDs

5. Denard Robinson, QB, Michigan – He’s not quite as explosive as last season and he still makes mistakes, but he’s more clutch and his team is better. Michigan is 6-0 for the first time since 2006 thanks to Robinson. Any time your team goes 14 for 17 on third down, as Michigan did last week, you have to give the quarterback some credit. Get by Michigan State this week and his Heisman hopes get a nice shot in the arm.

Last Week against Northwestern: 17 of 26, 337 yards, 2 TDs, 3 INTs, 25 carries, 117 yards, 2 TDs

Next Opponent: Michigan State

Season: 67 of 117, 57.3%, 1,130 yards, 10 TDs, 9 INTs, 102 carries, 720 yards, 7.06 ypc, 8 TDs

6. Landry Jones, QB, Oklahoma – Jones had a good game last week against Texas, but I don’t see him getting much traction in the race just yet. Luckily, he’s got a back-loaded schedule that will allow him to make up some ground. But he’s got to hope some of the guys ahead of him screw up before he can break into the top tier of candidates.

Last Week against Ball State: 31 of 50, 367 yards, 3 TDs

Next Opponent: Kansas

Season: 142 of 205, 69.3%, 1,814 yards, 13 TDs, 5 INTs, 159.65 rating

NFL Odds * NFL Picks * NFL Lines

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Some thoughts on this past weekend’s games and how it all affects the Heisman race…

– It’s a shame about LaMichael James dislocating his elbow against California. That certainly was a nasty image to see. I don’t think anyone watching didn’t jump out of their skin for a split second in response. Here’s to a quick recovery. As for James’ Heisman hopes, they are even more buried now than they were before since he’ll miss two or three games due to that injury. And, yes, despite his recent production, he has definitely lost a step, as shown by Cal linebacker Mychal Kendricks running him down in the open field. Two years ago, that doesn’t happen.

– Quick aside on the Ducks: I think I have them figured out. They are a team that does well when the sun is shining. By that, I mean that when everything is going according to plan and the pressure is off, they perform at a higher level than almost any other team in the country. But knock them off kilter a bit…and things get messy fast. Look at quarterback Darron Thomas as an example. When Oregon is winning by eight or more points–when things are going good, in other words–he completes 63 percent of his passes and has 10 touchdown tosses with no picks with an efficiency rating of 242. Close to half his yardage this season has come in this scenario.  But when the Ducks are up by between 1 and 7 points–or when other teams are breathing down Oregon’s neck, in other words–he completes just 50 percent of his passes and his rating plunges to 164. When Oregon is tied or losing by 1-7 points, his efficiency rating takes a nose dive to 113. In fact, his overall passer rating when tied or behind is just 96.5.  Good for the NFL, bad for college football.

The point is that the Ducks are a team that can be quite ordinary when knocked off rhythm (though unstoppable when in the groove). I don’t think Oregon will become an elite program–or beat an elite program–until it can solve this problem.

– You can tuck away Marcus Lattimore’s Heisman hopes for another year, too. To win the trophy as a running back from a school like South Carolina, you have to have either excellent career numbers capped by a brilliant senior season (a la George Rogers) or a remarkable single season that blows the competition away. While Lattimore is on his way to a fine year, I doubt it will be good enough to overcome the kind of seasons about to be had by the front runners in this race.

– Tyrann Mathieu will not win the Heisman. He won’t. But, he can get to New York. And for a defensive player, that’s quite an accomplishment. In the meantime, it’s seems remarkable that he’s not actually leading the nation in forced fumbles.

– There are several scenarios that grab the attention of Heisman voters. There is the ‘redemption/comeback’ scenario, where a player finally makes good after a rough start to his career (Troy Smith, Jason White, Carson Palmer). There is the ‘rock star’ scenario, where a player who is highly touted from the beginning completely fulfills his destiny to everyone’s wonderment (Herschel Walker, Ricky Williams, Reggie Bush, Tim Tebow). Then there is the ‘Return to Glory’ scenario whereby a player, through his performance, helps to bring about the revival of a once-great program (John Huarte, Palmer, Mark Ingram). It’s this last scenario that fits Denard Robinson pretty well. He hasn’t been as sharp as last season, but his numbers are still pretty good and, more importantly, his team is winning again. Get by Michigan State this weekend and the return to glory scenario might not be that preposterous. Looking at the remaining six games on the schedule, they are all winnable. But what if the Wolverines go 11-1, win the Big Ten and Robinson has 1,500 rushing yards, 2,000 passing yards and 40 total touchdowns? Robinson would be on his way to NYC at a bare minimum.

– The Twitterati were complaining last week about how Andrew Luck.  Why, they asked, is he the front runner in the Heisman race when he is, like, ninth in passing efficiency? He sucks! Well, don’t look now, but he’s up to third this week, just behind Russell Wilson and Robert Griffin III. It’s a marathon, folks, not a sprint.

– Let’s look at where the top five candidates project out, stat-wise, at this moment:

Andrew Luck (assuming 13 regular-season games): 3,588 passing yards, 36 TDs, 5 INTs, 156 rushing yards, 2 TDs

Russell Wilson (assuming 13 regular-season games): 3,614 passing yards, 34 TDs, 3 INTs, 364 rushing yards, 5 TDs

Trent Richardson (assuming 13 regular-season games): 1,586 rushing yards, 24 TDs, 28 receptions, 2 TDs

Robert Griffin III (assuming 12 regular-season games): 3,648 passing yards, 46 TDs, 2 INTs, 672 rushing yards, 5 TDs

Kellen Moore: 3,336 passing yards, 41 TDs, 10 INTs

Assuming Stanford, Wisconsin and Alabama make their conference title games (and assuming Baylor does not), we have five pretty good seasons to choose from if everyone stays on pace.  All these seasons could arguably be considered Heisman worthy, although the performances of their teams will certainly render these numbers more (or less) meaningful.

Games to watch this weekend: Michigan at Michigan State; Baylor at Texas A&M.  Potentially critical moments for two great quarterbacks.

Four names to think about in 2012: Lamar Miller, Michael Dyer, Nathan Scheelhaase, Keith Price