I hear a lot of arguments all the time by media and fans for why the various candidates should, or should not, be considered for the Heisman Trophy.

Frankly, I find most of the points offered to be lacking. They usually have gaping holes that could be filled by anyone who does basic research. That said, what I’m going to do now is make my best case for and my best case against each candidate.

Today, my for/against are on Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III and Trent Richardson.

For Andrew Luck

What more could you ask this guy to do? He doesn’t play for a team filled with elite talent. He plays for Stanford, a program that actually requires that athletes be able to read and write before they strap on the pads. Despite all that, he’s led the Cardinal to two-straight 11-1 regular seasons and put that program squarely into the conversation as one of the best in the country. Those people who think his numbers aren’t good are crazy. He is fifth nationally in pass efficiency, is completing 70 percent of his passes and he’s thrown 35 TD passes. Of all the quarterbacks under consideration, he throws the ball the least (he is 41st nationally in attempts per game), a clear handicap to his stats that should be taken into account. And then there are the weapons at his disposal. He has none. His best wide receiver runs a 4.8 40. None of his targets can stretch the field in the way that most receivers can. Sure, his tight ends are great, but they are great because they are his only reliable targets. Give him a reliable target, well, you see what happens. They become great. Finally, we all know about his physical ability and status as a the pending No. 1 NFL pick. The truth is, as an athlete and as a passer he could shine in any system. If he played for Houston, USC, Alabama, Oregon or Oklahoma State, he’d still be an amazing quarterback. Could the quarterbacks from those teams say the same if they played for Stanford? No way. Plus, watch how far Stanford falls next year when Luck leaves. Years from now, when Luck is an all-pro quarterback, we’re going to be kicking ourselves that he didn’t win a Heisman. Besides, after the corruption and shadiness of the last year in college football, Luck is the best combination of outstanding play on the field and character off of it.

Against Andrew Luck

If there’s anything I hate, it’s being told what to think. For the last year, all that’s been talked about is the great Andrew Luck. Sorry, but I just don’t see what all the fuss is about. When I watch Stanford, I see a boring, grind-it-out offense with Luck making easy throws. He’s supposed to be this once-in-a-lifetime talent, so why don’t we ever see a once-in-a-lifetime performance out of him? He’s going to be a great NFL player. So what?  This is college and the Heisman is about the most outstanding player in college. I’m also not sure that Luck has truly been tested this year. He was strongest in the first 7 or 8 games of the season, throwing 20 TD passes and just 3 picks against very weak competition. Over the last 5 games, with the competition getting tougher, he’s looked rather ordinary, throwing 15 TDs and 6 interceptions (2 against Oregon in the most important game of the year). The guy doesn’t have a single 400-yard passing game, no 5-TD bonanzas, no 100-yard rushing performances (he’s supposed to be mobile, right?). He’s been consistent, but I wanted to see more from this guy who, after all, is supposed to be this perfect quarterback. He hasn’t shown it.

For Robert Griffin III

For all the talk about Luck’s talent, the quarterback with the rarest and purest talent in football–yes, football–is Robert Griffin III. This is a guy who left high school early and then finished third in the NCAA 400m hurdles in the same spring at Baylor. He’s simply the best athlete to ever play the position. And he’s not just an athlete. He’s got a stronger arm and is more accurate than Luck. He’s more efficient than Case Keenum, Brandon Weeden or Matt Barkley. In fact, his current efficiency rating of 191.1 is an NCAA record. Here’s a guy who is actually living up to the hype by breaking NCAA records and people have doubts about whether he is worthy of the Heisman? Look at what he means to his team. Right now, the Baylor Bears are 8-3 with one game to go. Mind you, this is a program that has not won 8 regular-season games since 1991. This time of year, it is usually 3-8. This is not a program that has had the luxury of reloading every year like the elite schools. This is Baylor, the little sisters of the Big 12. Not this year. The Bears have beaten four bowl teams, including ranked programs in TCU and Oklahoma. If his defense wasn’t ranked 114th in the country, he’d have a few more wins to his credit. He’s simply the best deep ball thrower in the country, so it’s no wonder he leads the nation in yards per attempt (an amazing 10.6). He’s thrown 34 touchdown passes, with just 5 interceptions and is 72.6 percent on his completions. He’s rushed for 612 yards and 7 more scores. Want spectacular and exciting to go with skill and production?  He’s the complete package. No matter how you slice it, he’s just better than any other player in the country. Oh, and if you want to talk about off-the-field accomplishments, consider that Griffin III is a fine student about to get his second degree in the spring.

Against Robert Griffin III

Part of being a great player is being able to elevate your team to great heights. Sorry, but Robert Griffin III hasn’t really done that with Baylor. Sure, they’ve won some games they wouldn’t usually win, but I’d chalk that up more to the weird bounces of college football than any particular kind of accomplishment on his part. The wins over TCU and Oklahoma could’ve gone either way and, if they had gone the other way, we wouldn’t be talking about RG3 for Heisman right now as a result. The fact is, Griffin III plays in a league where almost anyone can put up big passing numbers. Four of the top seven passers in the country are from the Big 12, so what he’s doing is pretty much par for the course. He plays in a wide-open offense that caters to his abilities (did you see how good his backup was the other night? The system produces numbers for anyone!). Put him in a more orthodox system and he wouldn’t be nearly as productive. Can we give the Heisman to a guy whose team has three losses? Sure, Tim Tebow’s team had three losses when he won it in 2007….but Griffin is no Tebow.

For Trent Richardson

We all know that the best athletes in the country reside in the SEC, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Trent Richardson has rushed for almost 1,100 yards and 10 touchdowns against the SEC alone this season. He’s been the bellcow for the Crimson Tide as they’ve all-but-secured another trip to the national title game. Richardson is a future NFL first round pick with the talent to carry any team. He’s probably the strongest player, pound-for-pound, in college football. He’s performed on the biggest stages, with the most pressure, and shined on all of them. He’s not in a system that pads his numbers, like some of the other contenders. He’s a no-nonsense back going mano à mano against the best defenses in college football. Teams know he is going to get the ball, but he produces anyway. He averages 6 yards per carry and has scored 23 touchdowns this season, tying Tim Tebow’s SEC record. He’s sixth nationally in rushing with 1,583 yards. Without Richardson, Bama probably doesn’t make it to the BCS title game. The Tide needed an outstanding back to get them there this year and Richardson got it done.

Against Trent Richardson

Face it, Richardson padded his numbers in a down year for the SEC. Almost a quarter of his yards (378) came in the last two games against FCS school Georgia Southern and an appallingly bad Auburn rush defense (ranked 99th in the country). Against non-winning teams, he put up 879 of his 1,583 yards and 16 of his 20 rushing touchdowns. Don’t talk to me about his supposedly tough schedule.  The Tide have beaten one team in the top 20 of the BCS rankings. ONE. They’ve played only four FBS teams with winning records. Sure, Richardson is a future talent, but he’s done nothing to really distinguish himself this season. In the biggest game of the year, against LSU, he was held to 89 yards on less than 4 yards per carry and kept out of the end zone (and don’t talk to me about his all-purpose yardage. Shifting the criteria is a sure sign of a losing argument). The SEC has been handed the two BCS championship slots without a whole lot of thought going into it. Is it really fair–or appropriate–to give the conference another Heisman as well? If you are going to pick a running back, pick Montee Ball, who has more yards than Richardson and the second most TDs in NCAA history.

* * *

I’ll break down Montee Ball, Case Keenum and Matt Barkley tomorrow. In the meantime, feel free to do your own pro and con in the comments section.

It’s time to break down where we are in the Heisman race after week 13.

At this point, you can’t analyze the Heisman race without having an understanding of the makeup of the voting regions.

When you see commentators claim that so-and-so has wrapped up the Heisman at this point, it’s mostly poppycock. They aren’t thinking about who is voting, where the voters are located and what the voters are looking for. That is all that matters when it comes to the Heisman.

Remember, there are 145 voters in each of the six regions, plus 55 former Heisman winners. First place votes get 3 points, second place gets 2 points and third place gets 1 point. It could well be that this year’s winner does not get the most first-place votes, but is carried to the trophy by virtue of being placed on the most ballots.

We are one week into the Heisman voting process. Last year, there were 17 ballots cast in the first week, 164 in week two and 705 in week three. That race was a blowout, so I expect that a close race like this year’s will result in a greater percentage of votes in the final week (in 2009, 90% of ballots were returned at the end).

This Heisman race is still very much up in the air, but there are definitely some distinct advantages for a couple of candidates.

Let’s look at the regions and how it breaks down now:

Far West: Luck remains the strong favorite in this region. If I had to guess, he’ll get upwards of 350 points here (he had 198 last year to Cam Newton’s 347). The emergence of Matt Barkley will eat into some of his first place votes, but Barkley will also serve to bump Robert Griffin III and Trent Richardson off of some ballots, which will benefit Luck by hurting their point totals.  (1) Luck (2) Barkley (3) Griffin III

SouthWest: It appears to me that this once crowded region is starting to coalesce around Griffin III, but his win here won’t be as dominant as Luck’s will be out West due to the presence of Case Keenum, Brandon Weeden, Justin Blackmon, Landry Jones, etc., who will all pick up varying levels of support. I would expect Trent Richardson to do okay here due to the presence of Arkansas (and hence, SEC) voters in this region, but that could be offset by the Colorado voters who are now more in touch with the Pac-12. The battle for third in this region could be an underrated factor in the final outcome of this race. (1) Griffin III (2) Keenum (3) Luck/Richardson

South: Just as Luck will dominate out West, Richardson will dominate the South. He should get a good 350 points here. What’s more there’s not a whole lot of other competition to drain votes away. I expect Griffin III to take second, with Luck a distant third. A few scattered votes for Tyrann Mathieu might be a factor, but it won’t hurt Richardson, only his competition. (1) Richardson (2) Griffin III (3) Luck

Mid-Atlantic: I see Richardson as being the slight favorite in this region since portions of it share a cultural affinity with the South and SEC football. Plus, Richardson performed well against Penn State, whose media are in this region. However, this was Luck’s third best region last year and that was before Stanford beat up on Virginia Tech in the Orange Bowl (thus giving ACC voters a close up look at the Cardinal QB). Stanford’s game against Duke could also play a factor. I give Richardson the nod here, but not a strong one. There will also be some votes for David Wilson of Virginia Tech and Sammy Watkins of Clemson scattered around, which could help decide the point totals. (1) Richardson (2) Luck (3) Griffin III

MidWest: This is one of the two key regions to deciding the Heisman vote. Right now, its status is in flux due to the continuing emergence of Montee Ball. Can he win the region? I think he can and should if he plays well this coming week against Michigan State. So that leaves a battle down the ballot. This was Luck’s second-best region last year and, surprisingly, he was almost as strong here as he was out West. Beating Notre Dame is definitely a boon and I think it bodes well for some strong Luck support yet again. How will Richardson do? I think the rise of Ball is what, in the end, could kill Richardson’s Heisman hopes, as I think having two running backs to choose from in the race dilutes his support a bit. Will Midwest voters choose an SEC running back over a Big Ten back? I doubt it. Should be tough going for Bama’s back here. (1) Ball (2) Luck (3) Griffin III

Northeast: This is the only region without a dog in the hunt and, therefore, it is the most perplexing to predict. This region has a lot of nationally-minded journalists and TV voters (it is the home to ESPN, Sports Illustrated, CBS, etc.), while the other regions are comprised mostly of beat writers and editors with more parochial interests. There are no college football powers around to command strong loyalties or to dominate local media reports and the NFL presence is very strong. Historically, it is a region that has tended to go for the hot candidate at the end of the season. There are arguments for why Luck, Griffin III and Richardson could all win this region, and why Barkley and Ball could pick up significant support. My gut tells me that the emergence of Ball could hurt Richardson’s chances of winning here (though I could be wrong, or Ball may lay an egg next Saturday, too). This leads me to believe that Griffin III has the best chance of winning here, although how he does against Texas will obviously affect things–he is no lock. (1) Griffin III (2) Luck (3) Richardson

The Heisman Winners: There are 55 Heisman winners who have a vote and it’s actually somewhat easy to make an educated guess as to which way they will choose (I will have a more detailed post on this later this week). For instance, you know that USC’s six Heismans are going to vote for Barkley. The various SEC Heisman winners are likely to go Richardson’s way. Unaligned running back winners will prefer Richardson or Ball, while unaligned quarterbacks will probably go for Luck or Griffin III. Since this is a voting block that does not keep up with the intricacies of the race that much, so I believe that Luck holds the advantage by virtue of having the most name recognition. This group of voters may well decide the race, though it’s going to be impossible to quantify.  (1) Luck (2) Richardson (3) Griffin III

It all adds up to a very close race with three candidates all potentially topping 1,000 total points (keeping in mind that one more weekend could further shake things up).

Griffin III’s and Richardson’s support is more intense, while Luck’s is more broad. However, I believe Griffin III’s support is broader than Richardson’s. Which leads me to believe that:

Luck leads one region strongly, is second in three others (strongly in two). He also leads among Heisman winners.

Griffin III leads two regions (one comfortably, the other narrowly), is a strong second in one other.

Richardson leads two regions (one strongly, the other moderately), no other seconds.

So here’s how I think the vote would go if it were held today (with approximate vote totals)

1. Luck (1,250 points)

2. Griffin (1,100 points)

3. Richardson (1,000 points)

4. Ball (500 points)

5. Keenum (400 points)

6. Barkley (250 points)

7. Russell Wilson (100 points)

8. Brandon Weeden (100 points)

9. Tyrann Mathieu (80 points)

10. Kellen Moore (40 points)

Obviously, this race is close enough to where any of the top three could win this. If this estimation is accurate, this would mean that Luck, Griffin III, Richardson, Ball and Keenum are headed to New York.

There’s one week to go, so this isn’t gospel, but I think it’s where the race stands right now.

This is obviously a very interesting, competitive and exciting Heisman race. I’m going to have to summon all my punditry powers to get an accurate read on it.

In the meantime, here are some basic stats for the top contenders heading into the final weekend:

Andrew Luck
261 of 376, .694%, 3,170 yards
35 TDs, 9 INTs, 166.16 rating
153 rush yards, 2 TDs
SEASON COMPLETE

Notes: Very good numbers all around, but some people expected more excitement out of the Stanford QB.  Doesn’t have many memorable highlights, outside of a one-handed catch.

Trent Richardson
263 carries, 1,583 yards
6.0 ypc, 20 rush TDs
27 receptions, 327 yards
3 receiving TDs
SEASON COMPLETE

Notes: His rushing total is historically low by Heisman standards. Since 1975, only Mark Ingram has rushed for fewer than 1,600 yards while managing to still take home the trophy (and that was the closest race in Heisman history).

Matt Barkley
308 of 446, .690%, 3,528 yards
39 TDs, 7 INTs, 161.22 rating,
2 rush TDs
SEASON COMPLETE

Notes: A latecomer to the campaign. Great numbers but lost to Luck head-to-head. Probation cost him a chance to make a final case for the trophy.

Robert Griffin III
252 of 347, .726%, 3,678 yards
34 TDs, 5 INTs, 191.11 rating
149 carries, 612 rush yards, 7 TDs
vs. Texas

Notes: Fantastic numbers. Has the NCAA record for efficiency in his pocket. Will he be ready to play against Texas after his concussion limited him against Texas Tech?

Case Keenum
342 of 467, .732%, 4,726 yards
43 TDs, 3 INTs, 187.35 rating
3 rushing TDs
vs. Southern Mississippi

Notes: Ridiculous numbers, but voters remain a bit skeptical. Also could break the NCAA efficiency record, to go with all his other records.

Montee Ball
248 carries, 1,622 rush yards
6.5 ypc, 29 rush TDs
17 receptions, 248 yards
5 receiving TDs
vs. Michigan State

Note: 34 total TDs is second-best in NCAA history. Getting within sniffing distance of Barry Sanders’ record of 39 is sure to impress voters as they hear more about it next weekend.

Brandon Weeden
355 of 486, .730%, 4,111 pass yards
34 TDs, 12 INTs, 162.26 rating
vs. Oklahoma

Note: Very good numbers but they get lost in the shuffle when compared to some of the other candidates.

Kellen Moore
272 of 373, .729%, 3,194 pass yards
38 TDs, 7 INTs, 174.72 rating
vs. New Mexico

Notes: Impressive as usual. Voters need more to go on when it comes to schools from non-BCS conferences, unfortunately.

It’s a pretty amazing field. Lots of big numbers, lots of stellar performances. It will be hard for voters to sort out. While this will not be the closest vote in Heisman history, as 2009′s race was, I expect that five finalists might be in the offing if no one can truly separate on the final weekend of games.

Case Keenum struck the first blow on what is shaping up to be a momentous Heisman weekend.

The Houston quarterback threw for 457 yards and 5 touchdowns (with no picks) as the Cougars moved to 12-0 on the season with a 48-16 win over Tulsa.

Keenum now has 4,726 yards, 43 TD passes and just three interceptions on the season. His numbers are truly astounding. Now, it is up to voters to figure out exactly what they mean.

Can he get to New York at this point?

I think his chances are improving, but it may depend on what Trent Richardson does against Auburn on Saturday.