Happy Heisman eve, everyone.

By this time on Sunday, the 78th Heisman winner will still be recovering from a night of well-deserved celebration and festivities in the Big Apple.

But who is that winner going to be and what will be the shape of his win?

Here’s my prediction of the totals on the night before the ceremony:

The order of finish

1. Johnny Manziel

2. Manti Te’o

3. Collin Klein

4. Braxton Miller

5. Marqise Lee

6. AJ McCarron

7. Jordan Lynch

8. Jarvis Jones

9. Kenjon Barner

10. Tavon Austin

Point totals

Many are predicting a landslide for Manziel, but I think it’ll be a comfortable-but-not-too-close win on the order of the margin by which Gino Torretta won in 1992:

Manziel — 1,900 points

Te’o — 1,500 points

Klein — 1,000 points

Braxton Miller — 250 points

Marqise Lee — 180 points

The Regions

The Heisman electorate is divided into six different regions. Here’s how I see the top 3 falling in each of them:

The South — (1) Manziel (2) Klein (3) Te’o

The Southwest — (1) Manziel (2) Klein (3) Te’o

The Midwest — (1) Te’o (2) Manziel (3) Miller

The Far West — (1) Manziel (2) Te’o (3) Lee

The Mid-Atlantic — (1) Manziel (2) Te’o (3) Klein

The Northeast — (1) Manziel (2) Te’o (3) Klein

We’ll be live-streaming the pre-Heisman press conference over at Heisman Central starting at 3 p.m. ET.

To watch, click on the Heisman Central 2012 icon on the right or just click here.

Also, you can get all kinds of photo updates from the weekend by following us on Instragram, username: heismanpundit.

We’ll have photos and higlights from the press conference at Heisman Central shortly after it ends.

Texas A&M running back John David Crow won the Heisman in 1957.

Born in Springhill, La., he was recruited to College Station by Paul ‘Bear’ Bryant and, at 6-foot-2, 220 pounds, he was an atypically large back for his era.

By his senior year, he was dominant on both sides of the ball. Despite missing roughly three games due to injury, he rushed for 562 yards and six touchdowns, caught two passes and threw five touchdown strikes. On defense, he had five interceptions.

Bryant told Heisman voters that “they should do away with the thing” if they didn’t vote for Crow. They heeded the legendary coach, giving Crow the trophy over defensive tackle Alex Karras of Iowa. Crow went on to play 11 seasons in the NFL, making his way to four Pro Bowls. He also coached with Bryant at Alabama and at Northeast Louisiana University before become athletic director at NLU.

He currently lives in College Station, Texas, and I got a hold of him on the phone on Thursday as he was packing for his trip to New York City to witness Johnny Manziel at the Heisman ceremony:

Have you been back to NYC in recent years, or is this your first time in a while?

“We didn’t make it last year, but we made it the year before, when Cam Newton won it. I don’t really recall when I came back again for the first time before that. When they presented it to me, I then went on to play football for 11 years. I definitely didn’t go back in those days because I was always playing in December. I don’t think I went during the years that I coached. It was probably in the neighborhood of 50 years later. I don’t think they invited people back for a while.”

Did you have any Heisman expectations heading into your senior season?

“It wasn’t on the radar. I recall Jones Ramsey was our SID back then and he called me down for something one day. I don’t think I’d ever been in his office to that point. There was a picture of this award there. I asked him what that was and he told me what it was. It was just another award or something to me. I had no idea that I would ever proceed to even be all-Southwest conference. I had no idea what it was or the possibility of winning something like that.”

Had you heard about or idolized any Heisman winners prior to winning?

“In Springhill, La., we only got papers from Shreveport and I think that was only on Saturday or Sunday. Doak Walker was the only person I knew because he was in the Shreveport Times a lot because he played for SMU. To be very honest with you, I didn’t read very much of the paper back then. I don’t think many juniors and seniors in high school did.”

What made you decide to go to Texas A&M?

“I didn’t know anything about Texas A&M and I wouldn’t have gone if not for coach Elmer Smith, who coached my brother at a small school in south Arkansas. We went to all the games and I’d sit on the sideline and got to know coach Elmer and when coach (Bear) Bryant hired him he came and recruited me, and convinced my mother and dad and myself to be an Aggie.”

You were injured for part of your senior year, right?

“I got my knee hurt in the Maryland game, which was the first one. It was right before half time. I didn’t play against Texas Tech the next game and then I played just three plays against Missouri. So you might say I missed two-and-a-half games my senior year.”

What was it like to win the Heisman back then?

“It was something I had never dreamed of. I didn’t even know anything like it went on in the United States. It was not something you talked about back then like we do now. I’m so happy that it has become what it has, not just because we have one here in our house, but because it’s good for college football. I love the fact that everyone is talking about freshman winning or whatever, but the award is presented to the most outstanding college football player who played football this year. I think he (Johnny Manziel) is without a doubt the most outstanding.”

What was your trip to New York like when you were given the trophy?

“It was great. We had dinner on the 13th floor of the Downtown Athletic Club and we could see the Statue of Liberty out the window. The night of the presentation, they had a bunch of microphones sitting there at the podium for CBS, NBC and all that, but the only one I saw was from Movie Tone which was the one that you saw in the movie theaters when I was growing up. Those were the newsreels which ran when you went to go get popcorn. I recognized that mic and thought I might be seen in the movie theaters back in Springhill. But you can’t even compare it to the way it is today. I’m so fortunate and so happy that it’s changed.”

Gary Beban, who won in 1967, once told me that you were his hero growing up. Over the years, have you noticed the impact that your Heisman win has had on other people?

“That is awfully nice of Gary to say and I look up to him and he’s a very good person. That’s the first I’ve heard that and that’s very, very nice of him to say. I’ve never looked at it like I did anything. I swear to you, I never looked at it that way. I went to New York on behalf of the coaching staff, my teammates, the 12th man, the managers and the trainers. I accepted the award on behalf of them. I’m just keeping it for them. Football is the ultimate team sport. No one can do anything in football if you don’t have a little help. Of course some people can make marvelous plays and, rightfully so, they should be patted on the back for that. But still when you get right down to it, winning and losing the game is the most important thing. That’s what the Heisman award stands for — helping your teammates win games.”

When did you first get a chance to watch Johnny Manziel play?

“I hadn’t gone to a practice this year and then I didn’t want to go after a while because I’m a bit superstitious. The first time I saw him was in games. I was obviously shocked when I saw him, as were a lot of people, because of the things that he can do. Kevin Sumlin and his staff have done a great job with the whole team and with him. I still think he does things that you can’t coach. It’s instinct, he was born with it. I’d like someone to explain to me how he made that play against Alabama where he got the ball knocked out of his hand, reversed himself and found the receiver in the end zone. Just ridiculous.”

You finally met and talked with him recently. What did you talk about with him?

“We talked briefly. I tried to tell him to keep on acting the way he’s acting and keep on doing the things he’s doing, respect his mom and dad and go have fun. What else can you tell him? Saturday night we all hope we can walk away very, very happy. If not, he’s still got to play Oklahoma in the Cotton Bowl anyway.”

What will him winning the Heisman mean to you?

“It’s exciting but sometimes I think things like this are overplayed, unless it’s happening to you. I’m more interested in getting this done Saturday and then we’ll have this forever. It won’t matter what happened last year. You’ve got to look toward the year coming up and try to improve.”

Are you looking forward to all the attention you are sure to receive this weekend when you come to New York?

“I think my cell phone number got out, so they might find me. I’ve never been through this. I hear there will be an awful lot of autograph seekers out there, not so much for guys like me but for the younger guys. I’m looking forward to going up there for Saturday night. I’m not sure I’m looking forward to all the hullabaloo that’s going to go on between when we get there and when the ceremony starts. Still it’s an honor for someone who I’ve never met to want to come up and see us and say hi and talk about a subject that really means a great deal to me, because it’s A&M. It’s my school and it’s done very, very well by me and the coach that coached here while I was here…there’s no doubt in my mind that he was the greatest coach that ever walked on this earth. And my teammates were the best as well. So I’m looking forward to it.”

Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you should know by now that Texas A&M quarterback Johnny Manziel is about to become the first freshman to win the Heisman in the 78-year history of the prestigious award.

Time will tell if this is merely a quirk of circumstance or the beginning of a larger trend for the trophy. But it’s worth looking back to put in proper context the impressiveness of Manziel’s pending feat.

Keep in mind that for a good chunk of the past 78 years, freshmen were not eligible to play college football. Although freshmen were given a pass during World War II and Korea, they were not given full eligibility until 1972.

Freshmen in the Heisman Vote

* — Redshirt freshman

Of this group, Walker, Vick and Peterson probably had the best arguments for winning the Heisman. Walker was the seminal player of the 1980 season and he dominated while leading his team to the national title. Vick led the nation in passing efficiency and guided his team to the BCS title game. Peterson came the closest to winning, but he had the misfortune of competing with Matt Leinart, the face of a juggernaut USC dynasty that tended in those days to suck all the publicity air out of the room, and his own teammate, Jason White.

So why has it been so hard for freshmen to break through over the years?

There are a couple explanations that make the most sense.

The most important thing to remember when it comes to the Heisman is that it’s an election. It’s an honor that is voted on by about 926 voters from around the country. As with any election, it helps when those who are voting know as much as possible about the person for whom they are voting. And so, the importance of name recognition can’t be overstated.

Therefore, freshmen are, by virtue of their class status, at a significant disadvantage when it comes to this. It stands to reason that a player who has three or four years under his belt is more likely to be be better known by voters than a player who is in his first year playing. Coming into this season, players like Matt Barkley and Montee Ball figured prominently into the preseason calculus. They appeard on magazine covers and on television and most voters knew their resumes and their faces. A player like Manziel had a lot of ground to make up in this regard. It can happen, but it’s rare. It certainly helps when you have a catchy nickname.

The other factor that can hurt a freshman is the subconscious bias that some voters might have in favor of upperclassmen, partially because of the name recognition issue already pointed out. Given the choice between a talented freshman and a talented senior, the voter is more likely to pick the latter since it’s the last opportunity to honor that player and he knows him so well. Meanwhile, the thought could be that there will be plenty of more opportunities to select the freshman since he has at least one or two more years left to play.

For a non-football example of this mentality, consider the Academy Awards of 1970. The choice that year for Best Actor was John Wayne, who beat out youngsters Dustin Hoffman and Jon Voight, among others. Wayne’s illustrious Hollywood career was in its twilight and, to that point, he lacked any type of prestigious honor from his peers. Voters gave him the Oscar over the young guys because they knew it was probably their last chance to do so.

We’ve seen a few Heismans given out with that thought in mind over the years and, perhaps, more than a couple freshmen and sophomores were spurned as a result.

But every year is different. No matter your class status, everything has to fall perfectly into place to win the Heisman. For Manziel to get here, it required an evisceration of the entire preseason Heisman field, some stumbling by a few better-known dark horses at midseason, record production on his part and an unlikely upset of a No. 1 team on its home turf. For those in the prediction and analysis business, this type of combination of events is better known as a Black Swan.

If Manziel wins the Heisman, does that mean he was a better player than his freshman forebears? Not necessarily. It just means he was the right freshman in the right place at the right time.

Saturday night, that’s going to be a pretty cool place to be.

Two schools with vastly different Heisman traditions go head to head on Saturday.

Notre Dame, of course, is the all-time Heisman leader for points scored in the Heisman vote and its seven trophies ties it with Ohio State (and, technically, USC) for the school with the most Heisman wins.

Texas A&M’s history with the award is a bit more modest, as the Aggies are ranked 11th among SEC schools for Heisman points scored.

However, in the last 25 years, the difference between the two programs has not been that great. The Irish haven’t had a Heisman winners since Tim Brown in 1987 and Manti Te’o is just the third Notre Dame finalist in that span.

The most recent Irish finalist was Brady Quinn in 2006. The quarterback entered the year as the Heisman favorite and he responded with 3,246 passing yards and 37 touchdowns that season. But blowout losses to Michigan and USC soured voters on Quinn and Ohio State’s Troy Smith ran away with the Heisman. Quinn finished a distant third to Smith, with Arkansas running back Darren McFadden sandwiched between.

Quinn also finished fourth in 2005, behind Reggie Bush, Vince Young and Matt Leinart, but he was not one of the finalists in New York. Of course, with that year’s award vacated, perhaps this is the year that shall not be named.

Before Quinn, you have to go all the way back to 1992 to find a Notre Dame player who shows up in the Heisman vote. Tailback Reggie Brooks finished fifth that year behind Gino Torretta thanks to a 1,458-yard, 13-touchdown season.

In 1990, junior wide receiver Raghib Ismail was the Heisman runner up to BYU’s Ty Detmer. Ismail was one of the most electrifying players in college football history and he acquitted himself quite well in the final vote, finishing 305 votes behind Detmer while finishing second in every region but one. ‘The Rocket’ rushed for 537 yards, caught 33 passes for 699 more and was extremely dangerous as a return man. A 9-3 Irish record and the record-breaking exploits of Detmer was perhaps what did him in.

Brown’s 1987 Heisman triumph was also due to an effective all-around game. Brown easily beat out Syracuse quarterback Don McPherson and Holy Cross two-way player Gordie Lockbaum to win his school’s record (at the time) seventh trophy. The Irish were just 8-3 in the regular season but were much improved in their second year under Lou Holtz. A couple punt return touchdowns against Michigan State in game two set the tone for his campaign and elevated him to front runner status. Brown caught 39 passes for 846 yards at his primary position, but he also performed well as a running back and return man. Still, his seven total touchdowns put him on the low end of modern Heisman production.

Notre Dame’s Heisman history before 1987 is too rich and varied to recount here. Suffice it to say that the Irish dominated the 1940s and 1950s, producing three winners in the former, two in the latter and plenty of candidates. The day Notre Dame hits a renewed level of offensive proficiency, we’re likely to see more trophies emerge from this storied program.

Texas A&M’s tradition with the Heisman is a bit more sparse to say the least.

The first Aggie to show up in the Heisman vote was running back John Kimbrough, who finished second to Tom Harmon in 1940. There wasn’t another A&M player in the final tally until running back John David Crow won the trophy in 1957 under coach Paul ‘Bear’ Bryant.

Crow was one of the legendary players of the 1950s. He won the trophy despite missing almost three full games that year. He rushed for 562 yards and six touchdowns, caught two passes and threw five touchdown passes. On defense, he had five interceptions. He won the Heisman handily over Alex Karras of Iowa and Walter Kowalczyk of Michigan State. Crow was the only player to win a Heisman for Bryant.

Texas A&M didn’t have a player place in the Heisman vote again until 1990, when tailback Darren Lewis tied for eighth after rushing for 1,795 yards and 20 touchdowns. The next year, dual-threat quarterback Bucky Richardson finished 10th.

Since Richardson, no Aggies have been a factor in the Heisman, which makes Johnny Manziel’s run at the trophy all the more special.

Pittsburgh’s Hugh Green is one of the greatest defensive players in college football history.

Though undersized for a defensive end at 6-foot-2, 220 pounds, Green dominated during his four years at Pitt. In his first game as a 1977 freshman, he had 11 tackles, a blocked punt and two sacks againt eventual national champion Notre Dame. By his senior season, he was an absolute terror, totaling 123 tackles, 17 sacks, four fumble recoveries and six pass breakups.

In that 1980 senior campaign, Green finished a strong second in the Heisman vote to South Carolina running back George Rogers. It’s the best finish ever by a pure defender in Heisman history.

I caught up with Green, a native of Natchez, Miss., over the phone on Thursday and talked with him about his Heisman experience, his playing days and what he thinks of Notre Dame linebacker Manti Te’o's run at the trophy:

Did you have any Heisman expectations heading into that senior year?

“Yes, very much so, because of the year we had the previous season. We had started campaigning in the summer leading up into it. During that period of time in college football, the focus had shifted more toward defense. The dominant players coming out back then were all defensive players — guys like Kenny Easley and Ronnie Lott. So those kinds of players were getting a lot of attention. But there were some timing issues that year for us that affected things. We played Penn State after the Heisman vote was due and that was one of the large problems I had to overcome.”

As the season went on, did you think you had a chance?

“I knew I had a chance because of the type of year I had and the year that our team had. My wish back then was that we’d get a chance to play against some the individuals I was in competition with. They made the selection and I still had a game to play, so that was a bad omen.”

Was there a lot of pressure on you to perform week in and week out to keep pace with your Heisman competition or were you just out there having fun?

“We were just having fun. We were the No. 1 defense in the country. I felt very good about it. The way we played defense, it was fun. They weren’t as adept as they are now about hyping the Heisman race.”

What did opposing teams do to minimize your impact?

“They did all kinds of stuff. Our coordinator who was Foge Fazio and we had been together all those years — Jimmy Johnson was my defensive coordinator when I was a freshman and sophomore. We designed all kinds of schemes where we’d put me where teams couldn’t account for me. I had one key ingredient, though, and that was I had a guy on the other side of me named Ricky Jackson who was a very good and impressive player. That minimized what teams could do. They had a choice, either run to me or run to Ricky and they chose Ricky.”

How did you find out that you didn’t win the Heisman?

“Our PR department kept us up on what was happening. It wasn’t like today where they take the top three or four players and take you to New York. My inkling was that I could win because I had basically won every major trophy in the country. I had scooped up everything. I was the AP and UPI player of the year. But the more I learned about the history of the award and who they catered to, the thinking about it became more evident. Again, defenses were dominant at that time. Players would go into a game and totally control it. But people back then didn’t know or have the capability of thinking about defensive players controlling the game. They’ve matured and grown into it now, I think.”

Has there been any defensive player since you played who you thought should’ve won the Heisman? What do you look for when it comes to defensive stats?

“One who comes to mind is Ndamukong Suh. He was dominant and controlling and constantly beating double teams.

“Everybody loves the sack monsters, the guys who make interceptions. I look for a player who changes the offensive game plan. It’s like when they put eight in the box to stop a running back or quarterback.”

Do you want just any defensive player to eventually win the Heisman or do you want him to be a guy who is better than you were?

“I would like a guy to be better than me. I want him to be a complete player, someone who understands the game, who studies well, who knows tendecncies and dictates the game. If a defensive player dictates not just one game, but every game, then that creates the scenario where he has a chance to win. It’s just like with an offensive player who dictates the game. All the rules have changed now to make it more productive for offenses. Defenses keep catching up and then they have to switch again. With all these shotguns and triple options, I don’t know if any current defensive player has put himself in position to be a player who can dictate the game.

Do you think it’s going to take an out-of-this-world statistical year for a defender to win it, or do you think it’ll just happen because of a fluke?

“I think it’s going to happen by fluke. Right now the Heisman winner is the guy who has the best year, not who has the best career. That’s the difference from before. The voters recognize that one year now whereas when I was around it was all about showing consistency and being recognized for that. Back then, you had the Bob Hope All-American Show, the AP All-Americans, the Walter Camp team and I could depend on seeing those exact individuals who had had a great year showing up the next year.”

It’s been a while since I’ve thought about the Bob Hope All-American Show. What was it like to take part in it?

Dealing with Mr. Hope was a complete pleasure. Especially after you came there more than once. A lot of people thought he was inept, but he was sharp. He knew things that you didn’t think he knew, which meant he watched you play. We’d do a skit and if it got messed up, Mr. Hope would do a completely different comment or joke off the cuff. He was the cream of the crop.”

Do any current players remind you of you?

When you go out and talk about comparing between then and now, it’s a totally different thing. I see guys go to camp now and two or three days in, they pull a hamstring. I immediately think that the guy did nothing during the summer time, which shows the lack of seriousness to his game. And technique-wise you have bigger guys who are better athletes than back then, guys who are 6-foot-6 and 250 pounds who run a 4.3. There are guys who are flat out athletes who just run to the ball. With us, it was about mastering the game. It was an art. That’s the separation from then and now. A lot of guys are pure athletes but don’t have any knowledge of the game. That disappoints me. I want to see a guy who is a master of the game, who knows how to set a tackle up, who knows what to do and knows what the offense is doing to him.

What do you think of Manti Te’o?

“I think he’s an incredible athlete. He’s the ringleader of a great defense. Everything he does, such as how he makes his checks makes me think he really understands the game, and that he studies film and his opponents a lot. That’s very rare. Still, I would’ve like to have seen him have that same kind of productivity his junior, sophomore and freshman years.”

Does he deserve Heisman?

“I think he controls the game. I think he’s worthy. We’ll see if the scenario works out. I wish Te’o could be in a different situation because people really don’t recognize defenders and their talents enough. If they did, I think he would win the Heisman.”

What do you think of Jadeveon Clowney? If Te’o doesn’t win, do you think he has a chance next year?

“I like that kid. I like his motor. It’s very fast. He has some help on his defense. They’ll put him in position to continue his success and it’s good that he’s at South Caolina and in the SEC, which has been branded as the best conference. I feel if he has the type of year next year that he’s been having this year, I’d think he’d be in line to do what we’ve talked about and could convince people that an outright defensive player deserves it.”

Do you think the Hugh Green of 1980 could play today?

“I could play the same role but it would have to be under a very smart, aggressive defensive coordinator who knew what he had. I was a technician. I was smarter than I looked. I knew how to play blocks. I could walk into a defense and not know the scheme and still be able to play the run. That was because of being a technician and knowing the fundamentals of foootball.”

Did you go to Pitt because of that 1976 national title?

“Yeah. A lot of teams thought the SEC would have everything wrapped up with me. I recently talked to Barry Switzer and he asked if he recruited me and I told him he didn’t. Everyone thought i was too small. But our scheme of defense changed everyone’s mind. It doesn’t make a difference what size you are, it’s what’s inside of you. But if I hadn’t gone to Pitt, I had put in my mind that I would stay in state of Mississippi. I would’ve gone to Mississippi State.”