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College Football Battle Lines

How much territory does your team control? This map started floating around the internet a couple of days ago:

Owly Images(click to enlarge)

After looking it over, a few things stand out:

– Missouri, Nebraska, Wyoming, Wisconsin and Minnesota are the only states that primarily root for one team. Having only one team to root for is tough but for Montana, the  Dakotas, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, Delaware and Alaska even one FBS school would be an upgrade.

– At first glance it’s surprising that Air Force controls two-thirds of the state of Colorado. When you consider the Buffaloes’ and Rams’ recent decline it becomes less so.

– Kansas State paints nearly three-quarters of the state of Kansas purple. I’d love to see what this map looks like in late March.

– Texas, Ohio, and Florida are the three most divided states on the map. They also have some of the most loyal fans in the country.

 

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Heisman Weekend Preview

On the eve of the first Saturday of the 2012 season we here at Heisman Pundit have been talking a lot about the eventual national champion.

While we haven’t spoken in terms of specific teams and potential Heisman winners on these national championship participants, we have talked about the road certain teams will need to travel to end up in Miami.

We’ve come to the conclusion that 2012 (the year of the Mayan apocalypse) has a distinctly non-Biblical feel about it. For starters, every team’s final goal is to end up Miami, where women stroll around mostly naked and every night is a party. At USC, Lane Kiffin has all-but-admitted that Matt Barkley will be an offensive glutton, trying to rack up ungodly numbers on his way to New York in early December.   The final heretical element of the 2012 season is in direct opposition to Matthew 7:13, which states that the way to heaven is the tough and narrow path.

Not this year.

The road to Miami (college football heaven) is on the broad and easy path littered with the bodies of also-ran teams and cellar-dwelling division opponents.

I’d love to see Arkansas shock the world and sweep its SEC competition but the road is too tough, the margin for error too narrow. Oklahoma finally has the team it’s been building towards since Sam Bradford left, but Texas, West Virginia, TCU, Oklahoma State, Notre Dame and Kansas State stand directly in its path to the BCS title game. There is no team (in my opinion) good enough this year to beat any team in the nation on any given Saturday so it comes down to which team can beat every team on its softer-than-usual schedule.

Two teams in particular stand out to me in this easiest road scenario. First, there is Georgia, a team that must beat a not-so-tough South Carolina team, Florida and Georgia Southern. If the Bulldogs roll into the SEC Championship game at 12-0 they might just believe they can beat an LSU or Alabama. Hello South Beach.

Then there’s USC, arrogant as hell and ready to prove you can’t sanction the end zone. For the Trojans, the season comes down to two Oregon games, a trip to a Luck-less Stanford and a Thursday night matchup at Utah. Are there easier schedules out there? Yes, but these two teams have the friendliest schedules among the top contenders.

Games to Watch — Week One

Michigan +14 v Alabama — Bama should and will win this game, by a touchdown even, but that’s not the point. This game will accomplish two things: First it will vault the Tide to #1 in the polls for the foreseeable future. This is one of only two match-ups between ranked teams this weekend (the other being Boise State vs. Michigan State) and a win by Bama will stick in voters’ minds. This may also be Denard Robinson’s coming out party…or funeral. Last year when Robert Griffin III had arguably his strongest game against TCU in week one, Heisman voters took notice. If Robinson can put together an otherworldly performance against Alabama and keep the game close, look for him to steal votes from Barkley in the second week of the HeismanPundit/CBSsports.com Straw Poll.

Northwestern -1.5 @ Syracuse — Two words, Kain Colter (his name will be on every tongue come December)

Missouri St. @ Kansas St. (infinity) — I couldn’t find a line on K-State but I’ll still take them. Collin Klein is my true Heisman dark horse and I believe he could have a Tim Tebow/Cam Newton like season and create a 25-25 club.

Ohio +6.5 @ Penn St. — The season (in the metaphorical sense) of Penn State’s decline begins swiftly in this upset special.

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Picking this week’s games

Time for the first round of picks against the spread here at HP. Remember, these are the 10 games I see as the best plays of the week. All lines this week courtesy of Bankrollsports.com. Picks are bolded.

UCLA (-16.5) at Rice — The Jim Mora Jr. Era gets off to a rousing start thanks to an opportunistic defense. Bruins 31, Rice 10.

Washington State at BYU (65 points) — I like for a lot of points to be scored in this one, but for BYU to have too much experience in the end. Take the OVER. BYU 42, WSU 28

San Jose State (+25.5) at Stanford — This has all the makings of a sluggish outing for Stanford and the Spartans are no slouch. Stanford wins, but it’s not easy. Stanford 27, San Jose State 17.

Northwestern (-2) at Syracuse — I like for Kain Colter to have a big game in this one and get Northwestern off to a good start on the season. Northwestern 28, Syracuse 20.

Illinois (-10) vs. Western Michigan — I think Nate Scheelhaase takes well to the new spread offense at Illinois and the Illini slow down Alex Carder just enough to get the cover. Illinois 38, WMU 26.

Clemson (-3.5) at Auburn — Even without Sammy Watkins, Clemson has too much firepower. Auburn is still working out its offense, so I like the ACC Tigers. Clemson 31, Auburn 17.

Michigan (+14) vs. Alabama — I think people are taking Michigan too lightly and overplaying Alabama as an invincible team. Michigan is not chopped liver and will be competitive in this one. Alabama 23, Michigan 20.

Arkansas State at Oregon (69 points) — Oregon alone should produce at least 50 points on this point total. And Arkansas State should be able to score, too, so take the OVER. Bet of the week. Oregon 59, Arkansas State 28.

Georgia Tech (+7.5) at Virginia Tech — It’s just so tough to prepare for the Georgia Tech offense and VTU still has some kinks to work out on its offense, so I see a tight game here. Virginia Tech 20, Georgia Tech 17.

Baylor  vs. SMU (58 points) — This should be another high-scoring affair, so take the OVER on this one, but I like the Bears to come out strong in the post-RG3 era. Baylor 48, SMU 31.

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The 2012 Heisman Pundit Preseason All-American Team — Defense

We did the offense yesterday, now for the defensive HP preseason All-Americans.  The season is nigh, so no commentary, just the list, fast and quick:

Defensive Tackle

First Team: Kawann Short, Purdue; Star Lotulelei, Utah

Second Team: Shariff Floyd, Florida; Jonathan Hankins, Ohio State

Third Team: Aaron Tipoti, Cal; Josh Boyd, Miss State

Honorable Mention: Jesse Williams, Alabama; John Jenkins, Georgia; Sylvester Williams, UNC

Defensive Ends

First Team: Jackson Jeffcoat, Texas; Bjoern Werner, Florida State

Second Team: Sam Montgomery, LSU; William Gholston, MIchigan State

Third Team: Alex Okafor, Texas; Jadeveon Clowney, South Carolina

Honorable Mention: Barkevious Mingo, LSU; Brandon Jenkins, FSU; Dion Jordan, Oregon

Inside Linebackers

First Team: Manti Te’o, Notre Dame

Second Team: James Vaughters, Stanford

Third Team: Arthur Brown, Kansas State

Honorable Mention: Shane Skov, Stanford; Chris Borland, Wisconsin; Kevin Reddick, UNC; Nico Johnson, Alabama

Outside Linebackers

First Team: Jarvis Jones, UGA; Chase Thomas, Stanford

Second Team: Jonathan Brown, Illinois; Jamie Collins, Southern Miss

Third Team: Sean Porter, Texas A&M; Hayes Pullard, USC

Honorable Mention: Sio Moore, UConn; Travis Brown, Fresno State; Jake Kott, Iowa Sate

Cornerbacks

First Team: David Amerson, NC State; Nickell Robey, USC

Second Team: Jonathan Banks, Miss State; Jordan Poyer, Oregon State

Third Team: Dee Milliner, Alabama; Tharold Simon, LSU

Honorable Mention: Xavier Rhodes, FSU; Johnny Adams, Michigan State; Desmond Trufant, Washington

Safeties

First Team: TJ McDonald, USC; Bacarri Rambo, Georgia

Second Team: Eric Reid, LSU; Tony Jefferson, Oklahoma

Third Team: John Boyett, Oregon; Matt Elam, Florida

Honorable Mention: Isaiah Johnson, Georgia Tech; Jarred Holly, Pitt; CJ Barnett, Ohio State, DJ Swearinger, South Carolina

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The 2012 Heisman Pundit Preseason All-American Team — Offense

With the season upon us, it’s time for me to reveal the the 2012 edition of the very prestigious HP preseason All-American team.

First, the offense:

Quarterback

1st team: Matt Barkley, USC

2nd team: Denard Robinson, Michigan

3rd team: Geno Smith, WVU

Honorable Mention: Tyler Wilson, Arkansas; Landry Jones, Oklahoma; Collin Klein, Kansas State; Tyler Bray, Tennessee; Aaron Murray, Georgia; Kain Colter, Northwestern; EJ Manuel, Florida State

Comments: Another year, another stocked batch of quarterbacks. Barkley, the prohibitive Heisman favorite, leads the 2012 list with the help of the best receiving corps in college football. Robinson returns as a third year starter and his second in Brady Hoke’s system. He has the opportunity to shine early in a marquee matchup in week one against Alabama. Smith begins his senior season in a new conference but should still put up otherworldly statistics.

Running Back

1st team: Montee Ball, Wisconsin

2nd team: Knile Davis, Arkansas

3rd team: Marcus Lattimore, South Carolina

Honorable Mention: Kenjon Barner, Oregon; Ray Graham, Pitt;  John White IV, Utah;  Stepfan Taylor, Stanford; Andre Ellington, Clemson; Rex Burkhead Nebraska

Comments: Ball was the best running back in the nation in 2011 and maintains the title in 2012. He comes into this season needing only 18 touchdowns to break the NCAA career touchdown record. Davis and Lattimore are both returning from season-ending injuries but are the focal points or their respective offenses, so both are due for bounce-back seasons.

Fullback

1st team: Ryan Hewitt, Stanford

2nd team: Trey Millard, Oklahoma

3rd team: Braden Wilson, Kansas State

Comments:  We like to pick an All-American fullback here at HP since it is a position on offense in football.  Did we just pick a fullback that had 10 carries for 35 yards the whole of 2011? Yes, because he is the most versatile and talented player at the position. Hewitt was Stanford’s third leading receiver last season with 282 yards and one of the most reliable blockers in the backfield.

Wide Receivers

1st team: Robert Woods,USC; Sammy Watkins, Clemson

2nd team: Marqise Lee, USC; Tavon Austin, WVU

3rd team: Keenan Allen, Cal; Marquess Wilson, Washington State

Honorable Mention: Terrance Williams, Baylor; Kenny Stills, Oklahoma; Connor Vernon, Duke; Stedman Bailey, WVU; Roy Roundtree, Michigan; Cobi Hamilton, Arkansas

Comments: Woods racked up 111 catches and over 1,000 yards last season on what turned out to be an injured ankle but he should be 100% in 2011. Watkins was a freshman phenom and he still makes this list despite a two-game suspension to open the season. The Pac-12 overall is loaded with pass catchers, so look for Wilson, Lee, and Allen to challenge Woods for the title of best receiver.

Tight End

1st team: Tyler Eifert, Notre Dame

2nd team: Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Washington

3rd team: Chris Gragg, Arkansas

Honorable Mention: Jake Stoneburner, Ohio State; Phillip Lutzenkirchen, Auburn; Ryan Griffin Connecticut

Comments: At 6-6, 250 pounds, Eifert looks to be the college football equivalent of Rob Gronkowski. Eifert is on the cusp of two major tight end records at Notre Dame (receiving yards and receptions). Seferian-Jenkins is a physical freak who should have a breakout season.

Offensive Line Unit

1st team: Alabama

2nd team: Oregon

3rd team: USC

Honorable Mention: Tennessee, Texas A&M, LSU

Comments:

Per HP tradition, we will not choose individual All-Americans on the offensive line.

We refuse to do so because we believe it’s basically impossible to pick the five best offensive linemen.

There are no individual stats to go by. Highlights rarely show what they do. We don’t know their assignments on a given play. We could go purely off of hearsay, but wouldn’t that be dishonest? What’s more, there are 600 starting offensive linemen in Division One. It’s almost impossible to have seen enough of them to know who is really the best. So, while other All-American teams choose linemen based almost solely on reputation, we will not. Instead, we look at a combination of factors, including sacks allowed, rushing offense, tackles for loss allowed, etc., to come up with our All-American unit.

We’ll have the defensive All-Americans tomorrow…stay tuned.

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HP to CBS

As some of you might’ve heard by now, I’ve been hired by CBSSports.com as its Heisman analyst and will also be contributing to its Eye on College Football blog.  I strongly encourage all of you who love tracking the Heisman race to keep tabs with me there and also follow me on Twitter @heismanpundit.

The original HP website won’t be going anywhere for now. We’ll continue to update things here this season and most likely it will provide a setting where we can flesh out some of our more provocative thoughts. So be sure to keep coming back and please, please join in on the conversation.

Thanks to all the readers and visitors who’ve helped to make this site the best place on the web (or anywhere) to talk about the race for the most prestigious award in sports. Your loyal readership, your passionate criticism, your thoughtful input and your generous praise have sustained me over these past eight seasons. I really appreciate it.

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Why I don’t like playoffs for college football

I wasn’t going to write much about the new four-team playoff. Maybe it’s the ennui of the offseason setting in, but the prospect of rehashing all the same arguments one more time just wasn’t very appealing.

What finally spurred me to write something was seeing the NFL Networks’s “Top 10 Traditions” show on Thursday night.

The NFL’s ‘great’ traditions included such time-worn nuggets as ‘Cheerleaders’,  ’Mascots’, ‘Tailgating’ and, lo and behold, the ‘pre-game flyover.’ Did you know that pre-game flyovers are an NFL tradition? Neither did I. But Brett Michaels of Poison fame and various other human debris showed up on the network to tell us all about it.

This horrible show reminded me of what’s at stake here. The advent of a playoff carries the danger of turning college football into a pale imitation of the NFL which, to me, would be the worst fate imaginable for such a unique and interesting sport.

I don’t want to rip The League too much. It has its charm and is obviously very popular. But it’s a product first and a sport second. It has a brilliant marketing strategy that has figured out how long it takes for someone to go to the bathroom during a commercial break. A large portion of its fan base follows the sport purely for fantasy league purposes. The Super Bowl is a social event centered primarily around gambling. The league as we know it began in 1970 and, like almost everything else created after that date, it tends to gravitate towards tackiness, soullessness and self indulgence.

College football shouldn’t lurch toward that model and I don’t think most fans want that either. While I don’t doubt that some do want it and that others don’t care one way or the other, I’m not convinced they have the best interests of the sport at heart.

Don’t get me wrong. Even a traditionalist such as myself isn’t mortally opposed to this four-team format. But I’m also a realist. The new system does not actually solve anything when it comes to picking a champion. It just expands the playoff pool. There is still a poll, except now we will call it a selection committee. There will still be subjective judgements that lead to major disagreements, with teams crying over being left out or discriminated against. And, if history is any indication, the answer to this problem will be an expansion of the playoffs, first to 8, then 12, then 16 and so on. Eventually, the regular season will be virtually meaningless and college football will be nothing more than NFL-lite. Congratulations.

[Future reporter to future player: "What's your goal this year? Player: "Same as it is every year. To go 9-3, win our division and make the playoffs."]

Some people will welcome that expansion and have no problem with it and even push for it.  My first instinct is that they should be kept as far away from college football as possible. My second instinct is that many of them probably like college football, but they don’t like it quite as much as the NFL or basketball and therefore the history and traditions that so many fans hold sacred don’t mean as much to them.

I grew up watching the old bowl system and it never once occurred to me back then that there was anything wrong with it. College football wasn’t about this ravenous quest for a national title and television rights, but about beating your rival, going to the big bowl game, hanging out on campus before the game and singing the fight song. Oh, sure, the polls came out at the end of the year and people argued all offseason about how their team got shafted in one way or another. But your team was still the best and your rival still sucked no matter what happened.

It was fun.

Somewhere along the way, that was all dismissed as inadequate. Think of all the money to be made if we can come up with a new way to crown a champion, they said. Revenue streams was the mantra. And so the BCS–essentially a two-team ‘playoff’–was created. Old rivalries died. Conferences broke up. Bowls lost their importance. The sport became more popular even as dissatisfaction with the postseason grew, mostly because it titillated fans’ natural paranoia about injustice, conspiracy and corruption (feelings many in the playoff-hungry media were only so happy to stoke).

Now the solution to the old ‘problem’ is a four-team playoff that is replete with the same issues that dogged the two-teamer. It’s just that no one will admit it because it’s more important to them that the camel’s nose of the playoff has finally been snuck under the tent. Besides, we all know it’s only temporary, even if the contract is for 12 years. Some are already pining for an eight-team affair, but I think any move in that direction would be a huge mistake.

My stance is that if we are going to create an imperfect way of crowning a champion, we should do so while holding on to as much of college football’s history and tradition as possible. It is this history and tradition, as well as the connection that alumni and fans and small towns have to their teams, that makes the sport special.

But if a small playoff leads to a bigger playoff and therefore to an end to the sanctity of the regular season and disruption of these traditions, then the sport as we know it is finished. Do I trust that the powers-that-be and their willing allies in the media will prevent this from happening? I do not. Do I think we should take this gamble?  No.

So if we are going to have an imperfect, unsatisfying championship process that degrades the value of the regular season, then we might as well go back to the old bowl system. It may have been imperfect, but in many ways it was far more appealing than what we’ve been dabbling with of late.

I’m under no illusion that we can recreate some lost college football arcadia–some change will always be necessary–but we can certainly be more mindful of the direction we are taking.

Otherwise we might wake up one day with a 16-team playoff…and Poison performing at half time instead of the marching band.

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