We continue our look at the Heisman race by conference with the Big 12, which remains in flux following the departure of Missouri and Texas A&M and the addition of TCU and West Virginia. The Big 12 is the only conference besides the SEC to produce a Heisman winner in the last five years, but it’s not a particularly strong year for candidates in this league, which means this list requires a little poetic license to get to 10.

The Contenders

1. Geno Smith, West Virginia – Smith was one of my darkhorse candidates last year and he had the kind of setup season that makes him a legit candidate for 2012. He threw for 4,385 yards and 31 touchdown passes and led the Mountaineers to a 10 win season. He’ll have two 1,000-yard receivers to throw to, which means he should have an even better year as he gets more comfortable in Dana Holgorsen’s offense. If he can guide WVU to the Big 12 title, he should make it to New York.

2. Collin Klein, Kansas State – Klein was probably the toughest player in college football last year, pound for pound. I can’t remember the last time I saw a player improve as much as Klein did between his sophomore and junior seasons. In 2011, he passed for 1,918 yards and 13 touchdowns and rushed for another 1,141 with an amazing 27 scores. All this while leading the Wildcats to a 10-win season. It will be tough to duplicate that same production, but 40 combined scores and an incredible will-to-win puts him in the upper echelon of Heisman candidates.

3. Landry Jones, Oklahoma – Jones entered last season as one of the top candidates on everyone’s list, but he ended up throwing for the quietest 4,463 yards you’ll ever see while getting no Heisman attention. His 29-15 touchdown-to-interception ratio didn’t help his cause much and going through a full year without Ryan Broyles will make things a bit tougher. Still, Oklahoma has a lot of young talent at receiver and if it can mature in time, Jones might come through with a huge season. The continued development of mega-talent Blake Bell could eat into his numbers, too.

The Dark Horses

4. Casey Pachall, TCU – Pachall proved to be an able replacement for Andy Dalton, throwing for 2,921 yards and 25 touchdowns in his first year as a starter while leading his team to 11 wins (with two losses by a total of 9 points). He’ll get a chance to show he can do it on a bigger stage in the Big 12 and if he and his team responds with another fine season, he could gain some traction as a dark horse candidate.

5. Joseph Randle, Oklahoma State – The Cowboys have been churning out offensive weapons with regularity of late and it looks like Randle’s turn in the spotlight is coming up. He rushed for 1,216 yards and 24 touchdowns as a sophomore last season and he could be poised for bigger and better things in 2012. However, he’ll have to hold off talented backups Jeremy Smith and Herschel Sims.

6. Tavon Austin, West Virginia – It’s hard to win the Heisman as an all-purpose dynamo, but Austin could make a run at it. He had a ridiculous junior season, totaling 2,574 yards while leading the nation in all-purpose yardage per game. If he can continue to make plays as a receiver, runner and return man, he might emerge as the top Mountaineer Heisman candidate when it’s all said and done.

The Long Shots

7. David Ash, Texas – Ash is the first of a quartet of Longhorns I include on this list, in large part because of the dearth of real candidates in the league. Some will probably wonder why I include Ash and not Case McCoy, but my hunch is that Ash is on pace to be the starter in 2012. If that’s the case, the athletic sophomore is likely to have a pretty good season in a Boise State-style offense that has historically produced fine signal callers.

8. Joe Bergeron, Texas – At this point on the list, we are basically ranking the Texas backs who have the best chance of having a breakout season. A productive Texas running back is almost always on the Heisman radar. To my eye, it was Bergeron and not the more highly touted Malcolm Brown who was the superior freshman for the Longhorns in 2011. If Bergeron can hold off Brown and incoming freshman Johnathan Gray, he could establish himself as one of the top backs in the conference, if not nationally.

9. Malcolm Brown, Texas – Brown was ranked by many as the top running back recruit in the country last year and a lot of expectations were placed on him by the Texas faithful. But while his numbers were solid for a freshman (742 yards, 5 TDs), he wasn’t very explosive (4.31 yards per carry) and seemed tentative at times. Much of that could be blamed on nagging injuries that limited him for most of the last half of the season, but even when healthy he seemed a bit underwhelming. However, I do believe he has the talent to be very productive in the Texas offense and if he can stay healthy and hold off backs like Bergeron and incoming phenom Johnathan Gray, I expect a fine sophomore season.

10. Jonathan Gray, Texas – Let’s make one thing clear. I am not calling Gray a Heisman candidate by including him on this list. I am, however, pointing out that, occasionally, a freshmen can make a foray into the race and it’s within the realm of possibility that Gray is the one to do it this year. He is the top ranked incoming running back on HP’s recruiting chart, so I obviously expect big things. How the Texas running back depth chart shakes out will be the main factor here, but I certainly believe he has the talent to take control of the starting position by mid season. As with most freshmen, the immediacy of his impact will depend on how soon he picks up the offense. He may redshirt, but he also might have a special year. No, he won’t win the Heisman because freshmen don’t win the Heisman. But, if the stars align, he could make a run at it.

It’s time to take a more comprehensive view of the Heisman race and that means breaking things down by conference.

First up, the players from the SEC with the best chance of winning the Heisman:

The Contenders

1. Aaron Murray, Georgia – Murray is on pace to break a lot of SEC passing records if he ends up staying all four years in Athens. Last season, he threw a school-record 35 touchdown passes and led the Bulldogs to the SEC title game. This year, more will be expected and the Dawgs should be a preseason top 10 team. One thing I like about Murray is that he has the kind of intangibles to his game that can potentially excite Heisman voters. His ability to scramble and make plays when the pocket breaks down is an example of that. The big drawback to his Heisman hopes is the Georgia offensive system itself, which is generally not conducive to producing the kind of numbers needed for a Heisman run. However, Murray seems to have the talent and moxie to overcome it all, as shown by his numbers last year. If he improves and leads Georgia to another SEC title run, he’ll be in the Heisman mix.

2. Tyler Bray, Tennessee – If the spindly Bray can stay healthy for an entire season, he could put up huge numbers for the Vols. He has the second-best receiving corps in the country to throw to and he has shown to be a tough competitor with a live arm and very good accuracy. The problem is that the Volunteers may continue to struggle under third-year coach Derek Dooley and without the record to back him up, Bray may be a forgotten man in the Heisman race. Still, quarterbacks tend to improve the most between their second and third year as a starter, so this could be Bray’s time to shine.

3. Knile Davis, Arkansas – People forget that Davis was the best running back in the conference in 2010, rushing for most of his 1,322 yards in the second half of the season. A broken ankle held him out of action in 2011, but he appears to be back as he ran a 4.33 40 in winter testing and squatted 570 pounds. If he’s fully healthy, he’s hands down the league’s best back and he could again put up excellent numbers in Bobby Petrino’s system. I expect the Hogs to again be a top 10 team as the schedule sets up quite favorably. The result could be a run at the Heisman for Davis.

The Dark Horses

4. James Franklin, Missouri – Franklin had a fantastic sophomore season, nearly hitting the 3,000/1,000 mark in his first year as a starter. He will undergo offseason shoulder surgery so it’s possible he won’t be quite the same passer, but if he is back healthy as expected, he’ll be the most effective dual-threat quarterback in the league. The question of whether he is ready to face SEC defenses can just as easily be bounced back the other way: Are the defenses ready to face him?

5. Tyler Wilson, Arkansas – Heading into last season, we thought Tyler Wilson would have no problem replacing Ryan Mallett and, as it turned out, Wilson led the SEC in passing yards and pass efficiency in what turned out to be a very down year for quarterbacks in the league (only two threw for more than 20 touchdowns). He’ll again be among the SEC’s best signal callers, but his numbers may not be as stellar due to the graduation of most of the league’s finest receiving corps.

6. Eddie Lacy, Alabama – As we discussed last week, Lacy’s numbers should jump considerably this year as he’s the top candidate to get the bulk of the departed Trent Richardson’s carries. If Lacy can hold up as an every-down back, he’ll put up great numbers for what should be a top 10 team. And that usually means Heisman consideration.

7. Christine Michael, Texas A&M – Like Lacy, Michael will see his numbers jump as the graduation of Cyrus Gray means he will become the focus of the Aggie rushing attack. Michael had 899 yards last season, so a huge season is definitely within reach. If he can hold up and perform well against SEC competition, Heisman voters will take notice.

8. Marcus Lattimore, South Carolina – The oft-injured Lattimore has to show he can make it through a season, but his running style isn’t exactly conducive to that prospect. He rushed for 818 yards last season before injuring his knee. Already a lumbering power back, he’s likely to struggle this year trying to get back to where he was. However, he’s a physical runner with tremendous vision, so if he stays healthy, he’ll have a big year.

The Long Shots

9. Kiehl Frazier, Auburn – Let’s face it: Sometimes players come out of nowhere to make a run at the Heisman. Who would’ve guessed that Cam Newton would one day be a Heisman candidate? Besides HP, I mean. So listen up. I think Frazier has the talent to be a great quarterback. If he is used properly in the Auburn system, I see no reason why he shouldn’t make a big jump as soon as this season. Will it happen? Who knows?  But that’s why I call him a long shot.

10. Isaiah Crowell, Georgia – Crowell was a highly-touted recruit for the Dawgs last season and he showed flashes of ability in rushing for a team-best 850 yards and five touchdowns. I’m not sure Crowell has the raw talent to hold off some of Georgia’s incoming running backs, including Keith Marshall and Todd Gurley. Both have better speed and measurables than Crowell. However, never count out the value of experience and it could be that Crowell gets the bulk of the carries and has a fine season.

Get ready to beat the college football odds this season when you sign up for the BetFirms football picks.

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When looking at potential Heisman darkhorses, it always helps to figure out which players are set up to make huge statistical jumps from one year to the next.  I consider two factors: (1) How many additional touches the player will receive and (2) the natural arch of his physical improvement. Here’s my list of players whose numbers should really explode in 2012:

Eddie Lacy, Alabama — The math here is simple. Lacy carried the ball 95 times for 674 yards last season and now Trent Richardson’s 283 carries must be reapportioned amongst the remaining Tide backs. Most likely, a large chunk of those carries will go to Lacy, who should–conservatively–top the 200 carry mark (provided he stays healthy). That means if he averages just 6.1 yards per carry instead of the 7.1 he averaged last year, he’s looking at a minimum of 1,220 yards on the ground. He’s not the talent that Richardson is, but if he carries as much as Richardson did last year, he’ll be a Heisman candidate in the Tide’s run-heavy offense.

Curtis McNeal, USC – The overlooked McNeal totaled 1,005 yards last year on just 145 carries, with 104 carries and 716 of those yards coming in the last six games. So he enters 2012 on an upswing. A total of 150 carries have departed the program and there is little depth behind the senior, who will benefit from defenses focusing on USC’s strong passing attack. Give McNeal at least half of those departed carries and you are looking at a possible 1,500 yard season, if not more. He recently said his goal was 2,000 yards. It might not be that farfetched.

Fitzgerald Touissant, Michigan — Touissant was touted long ago here at HP but he didn’t break out until last season when he rushed for 1,041 yards on 187 carries and proved down the stretch that he was a go-to back for the Wolverines. As quarterback Denard Robinson becomes more comfortable with more of the pro style elements of the Al Borges scheme, I think it’s safe to assume his carries will continue to drop (they fell from 256 in 2010 to 221 in 2011). That means more opportunities for the shifty Touissant, who seemed to get better and better as last season wore on. I think we’ll see another 50 caries go Touissant’s way, which could lead to one of the better years by a Michigan tailback in recent memory.

Kenjon Barner, Oregon – Barner has quietly rushed for 1,874 yards as LaMichael James’ backup, but now he’ll get the bulk of the carries in the Ducks’ spread option attack. We got a glimpse of what he can do when he filled in for an injured James and rushed for 296 yards on 41 carries in two starts last season. There were times the rest of the year when he looked as good as, if not better than, James. This year, the Ducks lose not only James’ 247 carries, but also the 45 of freshman Tra Carson and the 56 of quarterback Darron Thomas, for a total of 347 carries to be redistributed. Barner carried the ball 152 times last year for 939 yards and we can see him taking at least 100 of those carries for himself, with the rest going to phenom DeAnthony Thomas, other young backs and emerging quarterbacks Brian Bennett and Marcus Mariota. We may well see Barner coming pretty close to what James did last season, which would make him one of the nation’s premier backs.

James Franklin, Missouri – Franklin had an excellent sophomore season as a first-year starter, passing for 2,872 yards and 21 touchdowns and rushing for another 981 and 15. So he was very close to being a 3,000/1,000 player in his debut campaign. In the same vein, Missouri finished the year strong with four straight wins and was a few close losses away from a possible top 10 ranking. The big question here is how Franklin’s off-season shoulder injury will affect him in the fall, but he is expected to be fully recovered. If that is not wishful thinking, I see no reason why he wouldn’t top the 3,000-yard mark in passing this season. As for his rushing totals, the mangled knee of running back Henry Josey could cause Franklin to take up even more of the rushing burden than he did last year. Oh, and let’s not forget that he’ll have a really good target to throw to this fall in highly-touted freshman Dorial Green-Beckham, who is rated 13th on HP’s list of incoming wide outs. Look for Franklin to top that 3,000/1,000 barrier.

Braxton Miller, Ohio State – The big breakout for Miller will be in 2013, but I still expect to see significant improvement in 2012 from the talented Buckeye rising sophomore. He is tailor-made for Urban Meyer’s spread system, which means that he’ll no longer have to produce based on his talent alone. Last season, Miller rushed for a team-leading 715 yards and seven touchdowns and passed for 1,159 yards and 13 scores (with just four picks). He was really starting to figure things out at the end and it will be enjoyable to watch him improve this season. With no obvious dominant tailback set to emerge for Ohio State (and besides, Meyer’s teams tend to do the tailback by committee thing), I see no reason why Miller wouldn’t maintain his ground totals. Meanwhile, his passing totals should jump considerably. Based on his last four games of last year alone, he’ll easily top the 2,000-yard mark and probably throw between 20-25 touchdowns. If he exceeds these expectations, he could ‘arrive’ a year early.

Kiehl Frazier, Auburn – I suppose it’s possible that Clint Mosely and not the far-more-talented Frazier could win the starting job for the Tigers this year, as the disruption of losing offensive guru Gus Malzahn may result in a more conservative disposition down on the Plains.  But one can’t account for the stubbornness or stupidity of coaches when making these types of projections. If, indeed, Frazier is handed the keys to the Auburn offense–and is used correctly–he’ll develop into one of the best quarterbacks in the SEC by the end of the year. For a guy who threw for just 34 yards and rushed for 327 last year, this may seem like a stretch. But he’s got the talent to do it. I expect a dominant year from Frazier and he’ll likely produce a 2,000/1,000 type of season.

Le’Veon Bell, Michigan State – Rushing duos don’t always last. With rare exceptions, one of the backs is always better than the other. We saw last year how Montee Ball separated himself from James White. Eric Dickerson pretty much left Craig James in the dust. And last year, Le’Veon Bell showed he was superior to Edwin Baker. Bell rushed for 948 yards and 13 touchdowns in his sophomore season, while Baker (coming off a 1,200-yard campaign in ’10) fell to 665 yards and a 3.9 average. Bell was very consistent throughout the season, averaging 13 carries per game, but I expect that number to jump to 20 per game in ’12 as the Spartans rely on the running game more with the loss of quarterback Kirk Cousins to graduation. The 6-2, 237-pound Bell should become the workhorse of the Spartan offense. His yards per carry average may drop a bit, but he’ll probably rush for at least 1,300 yards, if not more.

Cierre Wood, Notre Dame – When you think of the backs out there who are primed for a big season, the first back who comes to mind is NOT Wood, who has had a quiet career for the Irish. I write ‘quiet’ because he’s managed to lead Notre Dame in rushing for two-straight years–including last year’s 1,102-yard effort–without a whole lot of fanfare, which seems unusual considering he was a relatively well-heralded recruit coming out of high school. But a closer look at the numbers reveals that Wood has a chance to break the Irish single-season rushing record of 1,437 yards set by Vagas Ferguson in 1979. The loss of Jonas Gray and his 114 carries means that Wood will be the bellcow for a Notre Dame offense that will probably emphasize the run more than ever. The emergence of running threats at quarterback like Andrew Hendrix and Everett Golson will probably be to Woods’ benefit, too, as defenses will be unable to key on him. I see no reason why Woods wouldn’t get an extra 50 carries this season, which should put him into the 1,400-yard region.

Christine Michael, Texas A&M – This projection is just common sense. Michael is a talented back who ran for 899 yards last season while getting about 43 percent of the carries in an offense that also featured Cyrus Gray and Ryan Tannehill (who had 306 rushing yards). Gray and Tannehill are gone and now Michael is the man, which means he’ll probably carry the ball upwards of 250 times and pile up a lot of yards in the process. He’ll be in the conversation as one of the top backs in the newly-reconfigured SEC and, if he stays healthy, he could have an All-American-level season.

Jesse Callier, Washington – Callier is a very talented back who has been in the shadow of Chris Polk the last couple seasons. With Polk gone to the NFL, the job is now Callier’s. He carried the ball just 47 times (for 260 yards) last season, while Polk ran it 293 times, so it stands to reason that he’ll get plenty of opportunities. I actually think there is a good chance that Washington experiences no dropoff at this position and that Callier establishes himself as one of the top backs in the Pac-12 with a season exceeding 1,300 yards on the ground.

De’Anthony Thomas, Oregon – Thomas is obviously an interesting case since he is such an all-around dynamo. Last year, he had just 140 touches, with 39 of them coming in the return game. This was a wise move by Oregon, as keeping the rather slight Thomas fresh and healthy is the key to his effectiveness. It worked, as he had 18 touchdowns and 2,235 total yards. In that vein, Oregon might be tempted to put a huge workload on him in 2012, but I don’t foresee it unless there is a desperate need. Nonetheless, he’ll easily surpass the 55 carries he had in 2011, though I don’t expect he’ll catch 46 passes since more Oregon receivers should emerge as downfield threats. If he carries the ball 120 times–as is likely–he’ll probably top 900 rushing yards while still doing considerable damage as a receiver and return man. So, I don’t expect his total all-purpose yardage to jump that much, but I do expect a significant jump in his yards from scrimmage. Either, we are probably talking about the most exciting player in the country and a legit Heisman candidate.

The college football season is over, but that doesn’t mean we’ll stop covering it here at HP.

Besides our usual commentary here and on Twitter, look for the following:

January
The 2012 Pre-Spring Heisman Watch
The HP Skill Position Recruiting Rankings — our ranking of the top QB, RB and WR talent in the current recruiting class, featuring legendary scout Lannie Julias.

February
The top recruiting classes of 2012 — the real rankings according to the relevant criteria.
Future Heisman candidates from the class of 2012 — always a popular item.
Fastest recruits from the class of 2012

March
Spring profiles of 2012 Heisman candidates

April
The post-spring 2012 Heisman Watch
NFL draft preview: HP ranks the top prospects for the 2012 draft.

So be sure to check back here on HP in the coming months. Also, look for a new site redesign as we try to improve your reader experience here. It’s going to be an exciting offseason!

On January 15th, we’ll have a good idea who is coming back to play college football in 2012 and we can start to whittle down the list of the top contenders for the Heisman Trophy.

The two players I’m most interested in are Montee Ball and LaMichael James. Neither has declared for the draft yet and I’ve seen a couple sources claim they actually might be coming back. I’ll believe it when I see it, but those two returning would change the complexion of the 2012 race.

Namely, James would have a chance to break the all-time NCAA rushing mark if he returns (he’s only 1,315 yards shy of Ron Dayne’s total). The last four players to break that record–Archie Griffin, Tony Dorsett, Ricky Williams and Dayne–all won the Heisman. He’d also have a shot at becoming the first player ever to lead the nation in rushing three times. The fact that James will also be playing for a national title contender will help, too. If he comes back, it could be between him and Matt Barkley for the Heisman.

But, we won’t know for sure for a few more days. Once we get that information we can start talking Heisman again.

In the meantime, keep an eye out here for a few more developments: We’ll be unrolling our very own recruiting rankings and will also put out our own rankings for the 2012 NFL draft.

In case you missed it, here’s a look back at the top 10 plays from the 2011 Heisman race:

Top 10 Plays of the 2011 Heisman Finalists from Amerigo Chattin on Vimeo.