Be sure to check it out!

Ohio State (-20.5) vs. Michigan– Not a good way to end Rich Rod’s first year, but they’ll be back.  The Buckeyes roll here.

Ohio State 31, Michigan 3

Vanderbilt (-3) vs. Tennessee– Almost time to drop the curtain on the Phil Fulmer Era.  I think he’s had his last win.

Vandy 24, Tennessee 17

Arkansas (-1.5) at Mississippi State– Surely, a team that took care of Tulsa can also handle MSU, right?  I think so.

Arkansas 28, Mississippi State 24

Notre Dame (-19.5) vs. Syracuse– ESPN’s long national nightmare is almost over.  The Irish warm up for USC by taking care of business against the Cuse.

Notre Dame 38, Syracuse 14

Washington (-7) at Washington State– The race to the bottom in the Pac-10 comes to an end and WSU wins (loses).

Washington 31, Washington State 17

Texas Tech (+7) at Oklahoma– This is Tech’s time, and the place won’t matter.  The Red Raiders win outright.

Texas Tech 42, Oklahoma 41

Michigan State (+14.5) at Penn State– This one could be for the Rose Bowl.  The Spartans keep it close, but no cigar.

Penn State 35, Michigan State 27

Utah (-7) vs. BYU– The Utes have played it cool, never once complaining about the BCS.  They are smart enough to avoid that jinx.

Utah 28, BYU 20

Oregon State (+2.5) at Arizona– Can the Beavers be a team of destiny?  I think they are for one more week, at least.

Oregon State 34, Arizona 31

West Virginia (-7) at Louisville– Pat White has a big game here, as does Noel Devine.  Louisville is a shell of its former self.

West Virginia 41, Louisville 21

I’ll be talking Heisman on CBS College Sports TV’s ‘College Sports Tonight’ later today.  The show runs at 7 p.m. ET/4 p.m. PT and 11 p.m. ET/8 p.m. PT.

]]> http://heismanpundit.com/archives/1928/feed http://heismanpundit.com/archives/1927 http://heismanpundit.com/archives/1927#comments Thu, 20 Nov 2008 18:48:16 +0000 Heismanpundit http://heismanpundit.com/archives/1927 From Stew Mandel’s column :

Carroll, a longtime playoff advocate, has been unusually outspoken in his frustration of late. He made waves a few weeks ago by saying the BCS "stinks." (He’s hardly in the minority there.) But the USC coach got particularly defensive following a 17-3 win over Cal on Nov. 8 when reporters questioned his team’s inability to accrue "style points" in the low-scoring game.

"I don’t care about impressing anybody," he said. "I don’t want to win a popularity contest."

Hello?  College football IS a popularity contest.  It always HAS been and probably always WILL be.  This ain’t the NFL, Pete.

There are things called ‘polls’, you see.  And these pollsters ‘vote’ on which teams they think are the ‘best.’  A pollster is more likely to vote for you if your team plays well on all sides of the ball and wins in convincing fashion.   So, if you are a coach and you don’t care about impressing the pollsters or winning a popularity contest with them, then you are doing your team an immense disservice.

Florida, despite losing at home to Ole Miss, has a great shot of making the BCS title game.  Why?  Because it has been impressing the voters with regularity ever since.  Since losing to the Rebels, Florida has been on a tear.  Since losing to Oregon State, USC has been inconsistent against a conference perceived as having a down year.   So, voters yawn.

It seems counterintuitive to not want to impress the very people who will decide your fate.  Go figure.

Dominique Franks

Brian Jackson

Lendy Holmes

Nic Harris

Jonathan Nelson

Jamell Fleming

Quinton Carter

Desmond Jackson

This is the two-deep of the Oklahoma secondary.  To stop or slow down Texas Tech’s offense, you need a lot of guys who can run and cover.   Can these guys do it?

I’m not sure this unit can shut down Graham Harrell.  Tech is going to get a lot of yards.  The key will be if these guys can make big plays in the red zone, maybe snag an interception or two.

Oklahoma’s fast-break offense isn’t prone to keeping the ball away from other offenses, so these guys will get a workout.

I think Muschamp is a solid choice, but doesn’t this move limit Texas’ flexibility?  What if another hot coach out there who would be amenable to coaching at Texas is available?  It’s almost like Texas’ approach to getting early commits in recruiting–a bird in the hand is good, but you might miss those late-breaking stars because all your scholies are used up.

Wonder how much longer Brown will go?  Three years, maybe?

Tim Griffin likes this move .

­Here’s the link .

Harrell, who in 463 attempts has thrown only five interceptions this season, will become "the most unlikely Heisman winner since [Oklahoma State's] Barry Sanders, who beat out [UCLA's] Troy Aikman and [USC's] Rodney Peete 20 years ago." That is the opinion of Chris Huston, proprietor of the authoritative HeismanPundit.com, whose "10 Heismandments" stipulate, among other things, that "the winner must be a quarterback, a running back or a multi-threat athlete" and "must put up good numbers in big games on TV."– Austin Murphy, Sports Illustrated.

There are a couple areas where I disagree with him.

First off, he calls Colt McCoy a ‘long shot’ to win the Heisman.

But here’s why McCoy is somewhat of a long shot for the Heisman. Not only are his numbers not quite up to Harrell and Bradford’s, but the Big 12 has also done him no favors.

At this point, the numbers do not matter.  All three of the Big 12 candidates have surpassed the stats threshold for Heisman worthiness.  Voters understand that Harrell is going to have more yards due to his system and that McCoy will have more rushing touchdowns due to his mobility.  Neither will be penalized for deficiencies in those areas.  Besides, McCoy has the best completion percentage of the bunch, so it’s not like he doesn’t have any stats to hang his hat on.

The league has decreed that a three-way tie for the South Division title with Texas, Oklahoma and Texas Tech will come down to the team that is rated higher in the BCS ratings. An Oklahoma win Saturday night (and another at Oklahoma State next week) along with Texas Tech drilling lowly Baylor Nov. 29 and Texas taking revenge on Texas A&M the same day creates just such a scenario.

Oklahoma would likely jump past Texas in the BCS ratings and put Bradford and Co. into the Big 12 title game — in spite of that 45-35 loss to the Longhorns back on Oct. 11. That would give Bradford one more chance to carve up a Big 12 North weakling and impress Heisman voters.

While this is technically true, I don’t think it will happen.  It depends, for one, on what the computers do.  Second, it also depends on whether the voters will move OU past Texas, whose only loss would be to Tech in the final seconds.  Also, to just assume an OU win over Oklahoma State might be assuming too much at this point.  Finally, is Missouri a Big 12 North weakling?  That’s news to me.

I think that if Oklahoma beats Texas Tech, you will have three Big 12 players with one loss vying for the Heisman.  Two will be upper classmen and one will be a sophomore.  In that scenario, with everything being pretty much equal, the upperclassman always wins.  That means McCoy or Harrell.

Now, I could be wrong, but I still don’t think you can call McCoy a ‘long shot’.

In any event, Heisman showdowns like this are rare. The last time a Heisman winner faced the eventual runner-up came in 1998. And it hardly helped second-place finisher quarterback Michael Bishop of Kansas State when his Wildcats battered Texas, 48-7 as Heisman voters elected the Longhorns’ Ricky Williams in a landslide (2,355-792).

Before that, it was 1991 when runner-up QB Casey Weldon and Florida State blew past Michigan, 51-31, yet ESPN’s own Desmond Howard posed his way to a Heisman romp (2,077-503).

Remember, logic has never been the strength of the Heisman electorate, whose boo-boos (Gino Torretta, Andre Ware, Gary Beban, etc.) date all the way back to 1956 when Paul Hornung won for directing Notre Dame to a stellar 2-8 mark. Arguably the greatest player of all time, the immortal Jim Brown of Syracuse, finished fifth.

These examples illustrate that Heisman voters follow very set patterns when they choose the winner.  So, why would anyone think that logic, and the micro-logic of things like passing efficiency and other arcane stats, would suddenly rule the day this year?

What we have are four or five players who are worthy of this year’s Heisman Trophy.  Everyone agrees on that.  If McCoy, Harrell, Bradford, Tebow or Crabtree won, no one would be up in arms over it.

With that notion settled, the voters are now figuring out who is the most deserving.  They will most likely follow the patterns they have always followed, which means that Crabtree, Bradford and Tebow are the longest of the shots, with Harrell and McCoy being the best bets.

The Heismandments aren’t perfect–last year proved that–but they are a generally reliable guideline to figuring out who will win the Heisman.  I expect this year to be no different.

The Poll (With first place votes in parentheses):

Graham Harrell, QB, Texas Tech–50 (10)
Colt McCoy, QB, Texas–38
Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma–26
Tim Tebow, QB, Florida–23
Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech–11
Shonn Greene, RB, Iowa–1
Jacquizz Rodgers, RB, Oregon State–1

About the poll
The HeismanPundit.com/Orlando Sentinel Heisman Poll is made up of 10 Heisman voters from across the country. They vote for five players each week. Tabulations are made on a 5-4-3-2-1 basis, with five points awarded for a first-place vote, four points for a second-place vote and so on.

Members of the panel include: Mike Bianchi of the Orlando Sentinel, Olin Buchanan of Rivals.com, Jenni Carlson of The Oklahoman, Tom Dienhart of Rivals.com, Bruce Feldman of ESPN.com, J.B. Morris of ESPN the Magazine, Austin Murphy of Sports Illustrated, B.J. Schecter of Sports Illustrated, Stewart Mandel of Sports Illustrated and Dick Weiss of the New York Daily News.

Chris Huston, owner of Heismanpundit.com, coordinates the weekly poll.