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Not every recruiting class contains a future Heisman winner.  Here are the last 10 Heisman winners and the classes that produced them:

Chris Weinke (1990*/1997)

Erich Crouch (1997)

Carson Palmer (1998)

Jason White (1999)

Matt Leinart (2001)

Reggie Bush (2003)

Troy Smith (2002)

Tim Tebow (2006)

Sam Bradford (2006)

Mark Ingram (2008)

* — Weinke originally signed with Florida State in 1990 but he embarked on a pro baseball career before returning to the Seminoles in 1997.

Recent classes missing out on Heismans: 2000, 2004, 2005, 2007 (so far).

With signing day in the books, here are the players from the class of 2010 (in no particular order) who I think have the best chance of competing for future Heismans:

Michael Dyer, RB, Auburn–Dyer is a slippery, low-to-the-ground runner who should immediately thrive in Gus Malzahn’s offense.  I predict he will hit the 1,000-yard mark as a freshman (assuming health and qualification) and go on to a stellar career on the Plains.

Lache Seastrunk, RB, Oregon–I thought it was funny that reaction in the recruiting world to Seastrunk going to Oregon was rather muted.  Said one coach to me “He’s going to Oregon–there must be something wrong with him.”  Well, this is a guy who everyone wanted just a few months ago and now all of a sudden schools are poo-pooing him.  I don’t buy it.  This is one amazingly fast back who is perfect for the Chip Kelly scheme.  He should be an instant star.

Mack Brown, RB, Florida–There haven’t been many ultra-productive running backs coming out of Urban Meyer’s offenses of late, but Brown could be the exception.  He’s a nifty north-south runner who should thrive in the wide-open space of Meyer’s attack.

D.J. Morgan, RB, USC–Morgan could possibly redshirt his first season at USC due to an injury suffered his senior season.  But once he gets healthy, he’ll be one of the more exciting players in the country.  A legitimate track star (world junior champ in the high hurdles), he has the speed and moves to take it the distance on every play.

Cameron Newton, QB, Auburn–I was a big fan of Newton’s game when he went to Florida and I’m still high on him as he heads to Auburn.  If he wins the starting job, he’ll throw for a lot of yards and touchdowns for the Tigers and could end up being one of the better quarterbacks in the SEC.

Devin Gardner, QB, Michigan–If Rich Rodriguez is to resurrect Michigan, he may need Gardner to come through sooner rather than later.  Reminiscent of Vince Young and Terrelle Pryor physically and should be a great fit for the Wolverine offense.  If he develops, watch out.

Andrew Hendrix, QB, Notre Dame–Hendrix is an underrated talent, with a very good arm and excellent athleticism.  He could very well be the future for Notre Dame once Dane Crist’s eligibility expires.  He looks like a typical Brian Kelly quarterback to me and that means he’ll be putting up big numbers one day.

Blake Bell, QB, Oklahoma–Bell is a raw talent with a lot of upside.  It looks like he is tailor-made for the Oklahoma offense. Can really move his feet despite his 6-6 height.  Keep an eye on him.

There’s my top Heisman guys from the class of 2010.  It’s not an especially deep class as far as this list goes and it could well be that no Heisman winners emerge from this group.  However, I think these guys I’ve listed have the best chance.

It’s in vogue to belittle recruiting rankings as worthless, since there are so many examples of non-rated or underrated players making it to the bigtime.  There are plenty of guys who will play in the Super Bowl who were not highly touted coming out of high school, for instance.

The natural instinct, then, is to dismiss recruiting rankings as meaningless.

Keep in mind, I do believe that most of the people who tout players are woefully unqualified to do so. 

But. 

In their defense, keep in mind that there are 120 FBS schools.  If you assume that each of those 120 schools will sign, on average, about 18 to 20 players today, then that means that approximately 2,200 players are signing letters of intent.

When you look at the rankings for ESPN, Rivals and Scout, we are talking about the top 250 or 300 players.  Even if you combine and consolidate all the lists of all the recruiting services, many of the same players would crossover in all the lists and I doubt you’d end up ranking more than 400 players.  So that means that the two or three star guy that you are overlooking and who you think is worthless is actually ranked in the top 15 or 20 percent nationally.  That’s pretty elite.  It also means that there are 1,700 or so players who aren’t ranked, most likely not out of any sort of incompetence, but rather because of the sheer numbers that must be reviewed, scouted and processed. 

Is it possible to accurately rank 2,200 players every year?  I doubt it.  If you wonder how some schools find success despite not having heralded recruiting classes, or why some recruits come from out of nowhere to become great players, it’s probably because they come from that bottom 80 percent.  But calling it a ‘bottom’ is a misnomer.  Most of these players are just victims of the numbers game.  The elite programs battle for what they perceive as the top 400 or so players, but it may be that the school that can find the gems from the remaining 1,700 available will find unexpected success.

So, remember, when that 2-star guy pans out, don’t belittle the recruiting gurus.  In reality, they did have him as one of the top players in the country (even if they don’t know it).  Being ranked 350th doesn’t sound elite but, in reality, it is.

Not many blockbusters in this class from what I can see, but lots of good players with a chance to win a Heisman if things work out right.

1. USC–Three Heismans this decade and seven trophies overall, plus a glitzy program set in Tinseltown means a successful Trojan quarterback or tailback is automatically a candidate.

Status: Dropping slightly.  Three Heismans between 2002 and 2005, but no finalists since despite some high-profile athletes on offense.

2. Oklahoma–Two Heisman winners and two runners up this decade.  They’ve won with running backs and quarterbacks, with Switzer and Stoops. 

Status:  Steady.  Are voters about to wise up to the Sooner system? 

3. Notre Dame–No Heisman winner since 1987 and only two finalists since then, but a star Irish player is always on the radar.  Like it or not.

Status:  Dropping.  The former champ from way back when.  Still relevant, but needs a savior.

4. Ohio State–Seven Heisman winners and the dominant Big Ten Heisman power.  However, a Buckeye player will, on occasion, have to compete with Notre Dame and Michigan players for attention.

Status:  Rising slightly.  A reliable Heisman power that never goes too long without producing a viable candidate.

5. Florida–Only one school–Notre Dame–has more quarterback Heismans than Florida.  With a high-profile coach and a premier program in place, Gator players will be in the mix for the foreseeable future.

Status:  Rising.  Will John Brantley be the next Florida quarterback to contend?

6. Texas–The last Longhorn to win was Ricky Williams in ‘98, but there have been two runner ups since. 

Status:  Steady.  Colt McCoy was about as close as you can get points-wise to winning two Heismans (while not actually winning one).

7. Michigan–The Wolverines won two Heismans in the 1990s and haven’t been much of a factor lately.  Still, if a Michigan player goes off, he’s always going to be considered in the Heisman mix.

Status:  Dropping.  Can Rodriguez bring back the magic?

8. Miami—The Miami quarterback has been a strong presence in the Heisman race in the last 25 years.  Both Ken Dorsey and Willis McGahee were finalists this decade.

Status:  Dropping.  Having the ability to produce a serious Heisman contender is a sign of overall program health.  If Jacory Harris contends this year, it’ll show that Miami is back as a power.

9. Florida State–One of the glamor schools of the 1980s and 1990s, Florida State still has enough media cache to produce a Heisman contender. 

Status:  Dropping.   A recent rebound in recruiting could get the Seminoles back in the mix, but a lack of firepower on offense has been the main issue.

10. Nebraska–You could always count on the I-bone to produce a big-time rusher.  Since that offense went away, however, the Cornhuskers have struggled.  There hasn’t been a true Husker star on offense since Eric Crouch won the Heisman in 2001.

Status:  Rising slightly.  Ndamukong Suh’s run at the trophy this year shows that Nebraska can still muster a Heisman campaign.

While the Jets aren’t exactly a dynamic offensive team, they’ve been a great story with their defense and running game, as well as a rookie coach and a rookie quarterback. And you have to be impressed with the overall excellence of Indianapolis, Minnesota and New Orleans.  I think a Saints-Colts Super Bowl would be a dandy.

From where I sit, it looks like the Saints are the team to beat.  Anyone here up for any Super Bowl Betting?  Who do you like?

For the record, I don’t think the Orgeron affair amounts to much of anything and it appears no NCAA rules were broken.  But this isn’t exactly the smoothest way to get going on the PR side of things, is it?  Nor does it paint USC in a good light as its coaches try to poach Volunteer recruits while they prepare to enroll in school.  Heck, by these actions, you would think USC has a talent deficit or something.  In reality, the Trojans could bring in zero recruits this signing period and still boast enough talent to field two 9-3 teams.

What’s even more interesting, however, is how the Norm Chow-to-USC deal has fallen apart.  When this whole Kiffin-as-head-coach scheme was introduced, the idea of a ‘Dream Team’ of coaches that included Chow, Orgeron and Monte Kiffin was used as sweetener to cushion the proposal that Kiffin, Jr., take over for Pete Carroll.  By itself, the idea of Kiffin as USC coach would’ve been laughed away as a major joke.  But with that All-Star staff, it was deemed okay. 

But now Chow is gone, no doubt because of Kiffin’s reluctance to give up control of the USC offense.  When asked at his press conference who would call plays, Kiffin in essence said that he would call the plays.

Those quotes, which were seen on television by millions (I presume), are nowhere to be found in the official press conference transcript.  Soviet historians would be proud.

It’s clear that Kiffin never intended to make Chow the USC offensive coordinator.  Nevertheless, the promise of Chow’s return was used as an enticement to soothe Trojan fans who, like Volunteer fans before them, ended up buying a bill of goods.

There are many reasons to feel this way.  Most of the them are probably not obvious to those who have read this site for a while.

I’ve long warned the college football world about Kiffin.  I did all I could to let athletic directors know what they were getting into when dealing with him.  I predicted he would not be long for Knoxville.  True to form, he has done that rare thing for a college football coach–a one and done season.  Now, Tennessee is left to clean up the chaos he has created.  I only wish Tennessee had listened.  I am truly sorry for what has transpired there (but look on the bright side, Vol fans, you already got rid of the guy before he did too much damage).

But my criticism of this move by USC doesn’t touch upon the horrible football decision that has been made.  It doesn’t touch upon his failings as a head football coach or his lack of qualifications for a prestigious job like USC’s.   It doesn’t even touch upon his shoddy interpersonal skills, his numerous closeted skeletons that have yet to emerge or his unjustified rise through the coaching ranks that has been aided and abetted by his father, Monte Kiffin, and his godfather, Pete Carroll, with a speed akin to the efficient workings of a political dynasty named Bush.   

No, this is all about the monumentally foolish decision taken by the USC powers-that-be to put their flagship program–with all its tradition and history–at risk. 

There sits on the desk of the USC general counsel’s office a letter from the NCAA.  In this letter is spelled out the charges that have been made by the NCAA against USC athletics, specifically the football and basketball programs.  Believe it or not, my understanding is that the Reggie Bush part of the probe is not as prominent as the media has been touting (keep in mind the letter has come before the pending deposition).  However, the letter does contain several allegations of violations that by themselves are not that major, but when added together form a solid case for a lack of institutional control on the part of USC. 

USC has responded to these charges with a giant, multi-hundred page rebuttal.  In February, another meeting will be held by the NCAA to determine the punishment.  Most likely, some sort of probation will come in or around April.

So, with the NCAA on the warpath, USC is about to take a big hit.  No one knows the extent of the penalties just yet, but the penalties are coming for sure.

The USC university administration is, as a result, livid at Carroll and his boss, athletic director Mike Garrett, for their lax enforcement of NCAA standards.  Surely, then, one would think that with Carroll on his way out, the correct signal to the NCAA would be to hire a coach who has a clean reputation, who would run a tight ship.  An act of contrition, perhaps, to show that the message has been received and that the school has taken steps to regain institutional control. 

But no.

Somehow, someway, Kiffin was able to convince USC that he was that guy.  But the reality is that by hiring Kiffin, USC is sticking a fat middle finger in the face of the NCAA, the media and its fellow institutions.  With probation pending, it has hired as its coach a man who is a walking, talking, living, breathing NCAA violation.   Need we recount the numerous embarassments in which Kiffin has been embroiled during his short tenure in Knoxville?  Need we recall that some of the current allegations levied against USC occurred while Kiffin was on Carroll’s original staff?   USC might as well have invited a permanent microscope upon itself at a time when it should be battening down the hatches and fixing its issues.  Rather than making a clean break from the anything-goes Carroll Era, it has chose to continue it.

For every violation you hear about in college athletics, there are 10 that never make the light of day.  Count on this: The NCAA and the media will be on Kiffin like white on rice, waiting to pounce at every misstep.  All it takes is one player, agent, booster or runner to spill the beans regarding a past, present or future impropriety, or one coach to tell a reporter about some recruiting trail rumor, and more investigations will ensue.  One more major violation could result in even harsher penalties–even the death penalty.  Who is to say that there isn’t another shoe waiting to drop?  By hiring an all-star staff led by a head man who hasn’t shown he can walk straight–and whose arrogance practically begs for scrutiny– the circus that is USC football’s program is guaranteed to keep going.  That’s something no school on probation should welcome.  The school is making a breathtaking gamble by hiring Kiffin.

Had the announcement been concurrent with a move to hire more NCAA compliance people–USC has just four on staff to oversee 19 sports (compared with its eight equipment guys and five video staffers, for example)–then maybe we could acknowledge a serious move on its part to instill some discipline in a department that has been under the pall of investigation for the latter half of this decade.

But that didn’t happen.   USC did, however, move some other major mountains to get this thing done.  Los Angeles Lakers owner and Trojan alum Jerry Buss stepped to the plate and paid for the Kiffin buy out from Tennessee.  Public Storage owner Wayne Hughes provided much of the cash for the incredible staff that is coming with Kiffin to Los Angeles.  They should’ve kept their money and demanded that USC do the right thing.  Instead, they might have helped sew the seeds of their team’s demise. 

We haven’t even touched upon the wisdom of this decision from a football standpoint, nor the crassness of Kiffin’s sudden abandonment of Tennesseee.  On the surface, the staff being assembled at USC is remarkable.  But it’s hard to put the genie back in the bottle.  Would the Beatles have been the Beatles again if they reunited in 1977?  Getting the various egos involved to mesh together will be a challenge and it doesn’t seem like a task that the prickly Kiffin is up to.  Without a doubt, the recruiting classes will be sick and maybe unprecedented, but let’s not forget that the 2007 USC team was perhaps the most talented of the BCS era (as it pertains to NFL talent) but found a way to lose to a 41-point underdog in Stanford.  Talent doesn’t guarantee titles and, anyway, what does it matter if the titles are vacated years later?

Maybe the hiring of Lane Kiffin as USC head coach will indeed be a triumph of hope over experience.  Maybe he will run a clean program, having learned his lesson in his time at Tennessee.  Maybe the overwhelming recruiting classes preparing to arrive at USC won’t invite jealous recriminations by conference or national rivals.  Maybe the media will buy hook, line and sinker, that Kiffin has decided to fly straight and that the Trojans are doing everything by the book.

Or, maybe not.  In that case, USC will have hell to pay for perhaps the worst head coaching hire since Gerry Faust catapulted from Cincinnati’s Moeller High to the University of Notre Dame.

Oh, by the way, the L.A. Daily News reported that a source said “He (Kiffin) will do everything that Pete (Carroll) did and continue all the traditions and practice the same way.”

And therein lies the problem.

The smart money is on Oregon State’s Mike Riley (a former USC offensive coordinator) to take over for Carroll.

In the span of three weeks, we’ve seen Urban Meyer retire and unretire, Mike Leach and Jim Leavitt fired and now this.  What a crazy season (and post-season) it has been!