10 players whose numbers should explode in 2013

By on April 8, 2013 in Heisman Watch 2013

We already know who the big names in college football are heading into the 2013 season. Players like Johnny Manziel, Jadeveon Clowney, A.J. McCarron, Marqise Lee and Aaron Murray will be the focus of much of the preseason hype. And rightfully so, as they’ve proven themselves on the field time and time again.

But new stars are constantly emerging in college football and we’re sure to be talking about a whole different crop of players a year from now.

We can already discern which players will fit that bill based on what they’ve shown us so far. To that end, here are 10 players whose numbers should explode in 2013. If all goes right, we could be talking about them competing for the Heisman:

Lache Seastrunk, RB, Baylor – Few backs closed out the 2012 season as well as Seastrunk did. The 5-foot-10, 205-pounder rattled off 831 yards in his last six games, averaging 8.1 yards per carry along the way. He finished the year with 1,012 yards despite toting the ball just 29 times in his first six games. Although backfield mate Glasco Martin will still get his share of carries, look for Seastrunk to get the bulk of the work. If that happens, an 1,800-plus-yard season could be in the offing.

Kevin Hogan, QB, Stanford – Hogan was the catalyst for Stanford’s strong finish in 2012. The redshirt freshman started the last six games at quarterback for the Cardinal and performed well, completing almost 72 percent of his passes for 1,087 yards and eight touchdowns during that stretch (he also added 247 yards rushing). With a year of experience under his belt and a better understanding of Stanford’s offense, he should triple his production and blossom into one of the best quarterbacks in the country this fall.

T.J. Yeldon, RB, Alabama – Yeldon was phenomenal as a freshman, rushing for 1,108 yards and 12 touchdowns as a backup to Eddie Lacy. Well, Lacy’s 204 carries and 1,322 yards have now gone to the NFL, which means Yeldon should become the feature back in Alabama’s run-heavy system. A truckload of talented freshman runners will no doubt vie for some of Lacy’s carries, but Yeldon’s experience should win the day, especially in the early going. Look for Yeldon to easily top what Lacy did last year.

Sammy Watkins, WR, Clemson – Watkins was incredible as a freshman, catching 83 passes for 1,225 yards and 12 touchdowns. However, suspensions and injuries hampered his production as a sophomore and he managed just 57 catches for 708 yards and three touchdowns. Clemson didn’t really miss a beat, though, as DeAndre Hopkins stepped up with a monster season. With Hopkins gone to the NFL and Watkins no doubt angling to join him in next year’s draft, we should see the return of the Watkins of old this fall. If he stays healthy and out of trouble, he should double his production from last season.

Nelson Agholor, WR, USC – Biletnikoff winner Marqise Lee is back for another go-around at USC, but he’ll be lining up this fall without Robert Woods on the opposite side. Agholor, a talented sophomore, is a good bet to easily replace the 76 catches Woods brought to the table. After all, he’s sure to get lots of single coverage. After a 19-catch freshman season, Agholor should emerge as one of the best receivers in the Pac-12 in 2013.

Kiehl Frazier, QB, Auburn – The physically gifted Frazier had a disastrous sophomore season, passing for just 753 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for -35 yards as the Tigers went 3-9. The return of Gus Malzahn should make a huge difference since Frazier is not only familiar with his system but also well-suited for it. Don’t be surprised if Frazier is the most improved player in the SEC this fall. He’s got the tools to be a 3,000-yard passer and a 1,000-yard rusher.

Duke Johnson, RB, Miami – Johnson was lightning in a bottle for the Hurricanes as a true freshman, rushing for 947 yards and 10 touchdowns while totaling 2,060 all-purpose yards. Mike James and his 147 carries have graduated, so Johnson should get plenty more looks come fall. If he he can handle the increased reps, he’ll end up with the best year by a Miami running back since Willis McGahee rushed for 1,753 yards in 2002.

Devin Gardner, QB, Michigan – Gardner had the misfortune of spending much of his career backing up one of the most exciting players in college football history, Denard Robinson. But, last season, Gardner finally got his chance to shine. He started the last five games at quarterback for the Wolverines and his numbers were pretty good as he threw for 1,219 yards with 11 touchdowns and a 161 passer rating. He also chipped in another 101 yards rushing. Given that trajectory, it’s not hard to imagine Gardner developing into an elite quarterback with a full season under center.

Blake Bell, QB, Oklahoma – The ‘Belldozer’ has already scored 24 career touchdowns as a short-yardage specialist, but his experience as a passer is limited, with just 20 attempts in two seasons. If, as expected, he earns the nod as the starting quarterback, he’ll have no problem putting up big numbers in the Sooners’ passer-friendly system. The 6-foot-6 254-pounder has the skill set to have Tebow-esque production. He just needs the chance to do it.

Connor Halliday, QB, Washington State – It’s not a stretch to think that a Mike Leach quarterback should put up video game-like numbers. Halliday, a junior, shared the quarterback duties with Jeff Tuel last season and passed for 1,878 yards and 15 touchdowns, but he should have the position to himself this fall. Look for Leach’s system to bear more fruit in Year 2 as Halliday doubles his production.

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Updated Heisman total offense numbers

By on March 22, 2013 in Heisman History

One of the leading statistical indicators of late for determining the Heisman winner has been total offense — meaning, yards gained running and passing. As I talked about in my story about Super Quarterbacks, the last five Heisman winning quarterbacks have piled up an average of 4,676 yards of total offense in their Heisman-winning seasons (these numbers include the bowls). Not surprisingly, those five winners are each among the top 10 all-time among Heisman seasons for total offense.

If you want to know why Johnny Manziel won the Heisman, look no further than his total offense numbers. And if you want to figure out who’s going to win next season, look for total offense. You can even place your bets on it at OnlineCasinoAustralia.com.au.

Here’s the top 10 total offense totals among Heisman winners in the year they won the trophy:

1. Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M, 2012 — 5,116 yards

2. Ty Detmer, BYU, 1990 — 5,022 yards

3. Robert Griffin III, Baylor, 2011 — 4,992 yards

4. Sam Bradford, Oklahoma, 2008 — 4, 767 yards

5. Andre Ware, Houston , 1989 — 4,661 yards

6. Cameron Newton, Auburn, 2010 — 4,327 yards

7. Tim Tebow, Florida, 2007 — 4,181 yards

8. Chris Weinke, Florida State, 2000 — 4,070 yards

9. Carson Palmer, USC, 2002 — 3,820 yards

10. Jason White, Oklahoma, 2003 — 3,744 yards

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Les Miles and LSU do the Harlem Shake

By on March 18, 2013 in General CFB

Proving once again that the “kill switch” for the internet may be a good idea, here’s Les Miles and LSU doing the “Harlem Shake”:

Years from now, when pop culture historians look back to determine when the “Harlem Shake” phenomenon officially jumped the shark as an internet meme, they may very well point to this video. Back in my day (yeah, I sound like an old man), we had fads, too. But we didn’t see Bear Bryant doing disco. I have a feeling that if you asked the Bear to do this video, he’d kill you with a cold stare. I guess one of the appealing aspects of Miles is his lack of filter and maybe he thinks he’ll come across as approachable to the kids this way, but I personally wouldn’t respect a coach whose buffoon-meter was turned up to 11 more often than not.

And how much longer will this internet meme go on? Perhaps Unibet will give us some odds. 

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Future Heisman candidates from the recruiting class of 2013

By on February 5, 2013 in HP Recruiting '13

The recruits from the high school recruiting class of 2013 are getting ready to sign their letters of intent on Wednesday.

Not all of them are going to live up to their lofty recruiting rankings this season. Some will take time to adjust to the rigors of college life and go on to redshirt. Some will find ways to contribute as backups or on special teams. Others will be pressed into action due to injuries. Only a select few will become stars this fall.

Here at Heismanpundit.com we are always on the lookout for future Heisman candidates, so it’s a tradition of ours to try to pick out the players from each recruiting class who best fit that bill. It’s an inexact science, but in 2007, we had a guy named Cameron Newton on our list. Here are our picks from 2008, 2009, 2010 , 2011 and 2012.

It’s important to remember that not every recruiting class will produce a Heisman winner, or even a Heisman candidate. Johnny Manziel was from the class of 2011, while Robert Griffin and Mark Ingram were from the class of 2008. Cam Newton was in the high school class of 2007. As of yet, the classes of 2009 and 2010 have been somewhat devoid of serious candidates. In other words, it’s possible that Heisman glory passes over this group.

Selecting the candidates is not as simple as checking off some 5-star players from the recruiting sites.

First off, we narrow the list down to quarterbacks, running backs and multi-purpose athletes. No matter what anyone says, you can forget about tight ends, linebackers or linemen winning the trophy.

Second, we assess the abilities of the players in question. Do their skills translate to the next level? How quickly will they make an impact? Do they have the physical measurables and the intangibles needed to succeed?

Third, how well does the player fit into the system in which he will be playing? Does his team’s system produce the numbers needed to win a Heisman?

Let’s see what’s in store for this year’s class, along with a few of their highlights. Keep these guys on your radar and expect at least one of them to make a strong run at the Heisman within the next four years. Here they are:

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Manti Te’o's theme song: Imaginary Lover

By on January 17, 2013 in General CFB

Can’t add much more to what’s already been said about the very bizarre Manti Te’o situation.  So, I’ll just say that I consider this 1970s classic to be the theme song for the whole saga:

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An early top 10 teams list for 2013

By on January 8, 2013 in The HP Top 10 Teams

We’re only a few hours removed from the end of the 2012 season, but it’s never too early to get started on 2013.

Next season should definitely be fun. Lots of great teams out there. It’ll be sort of like a crazy, back and forth tennis match.  Speaking of tennis, if you ever want to lay a bet down, be sure to check out these tennis betting tips.

Here’s a way-too-early top 10 for next season:

1. Alabama – You’re kidding yourself if you don’t think this is where the Crimson Tide will start out come fall. And why shouldn’t they? Bama returns most of its key contributors on offense, including quarterback AJ McCarron, running backs Eddie Lacyand TJ Yeldon (unless Lacy opts for the draft) and rising star receiver Amari Cooper. The defense will be loaded as usual and, of course, there is head coach Nick Saban for opposing teams to deal with. Alabama is the best team until proven otherwise.

2. Texas A&M – If not for a bad second half against Florida in the season opener, it might’ve been the Aggies holding aloft the Crystal Ball last night. Look for the Aggies to make a serious run at the national title in just their second year under coach Kevin Sumlin. They have the best player in the country in Heisman winner Johnny Manziel and Sumlin has done a great job surrounding him with big-time talent, including wide receiver Mike Evans. It remains to be seen whether A&M’s bookend offensive tackles return for another year, but this program has enough Manz-mentum to overcome their loss. An early test looms when the Aggies host defending champ Alabama in Week 3.

3. Oregon – Everyone just knew Chip Kelly was heading to the NFL. Except he didn’t. He’ll stick around Eugene to lead another potent Duck team that is loaded on both sides of the ball and coming off a No. 2 national ranking. Quarterback Marcus Mariota, hybrid running back De’Anthony Thomas and perhaps the best Oregon defense of the Kelly era return with their innovative head coach to terrorize the Pac-12 once more.

4. Stanford – The Cardinal really took off after switching from Josh Nunes to Kevin Hogan at quarterback, finishing with their third-consecutive 11-win season and a Rose Bowl victory. The strong-armed, mobile Hogan returns along with what should once again be one of the best offensive lines in the country, plus a legion of talented running backs. More importantly, most of Stanford’s elite defensive front seven is back. The Cardinal are going to be in the national title mix for the foreseeable future.

5. Georgia – The return of Aaron Murray for a fourth season as starter means this Bulldog offense will be absolutely loaded with 10 of 11 starters coming back. Sophomore tailbacks Todd Gurley and Keith Marshall might be the best backfield tandem in the country and they’ll be running behind a veteran offensive line. If Georgia can rebuild its secondary and find a playmaker to replace the departing Jarvis Jones, it should once again represent the SEC East in the conference title game.

6. Ohio State – Urban Meyer led the Buckeyes to a 12-0 record in his first season as head coach and he has the players on hand to do it again. Junior quarterback Braxton Miller is the Heisman frontrunner and he should be unstoppable in his second year in Meyer’s offense. Ohio State has been recruiting well, which is good since it must replace its entire front four on defense. If the young talent steps up on that side of the ball, another title could be in the works for Meyer.

7. Clemson – This ranking is contingent upon quarterback Tajh Boyd returning for another season. If he does, the Tigers should once again field one of the country’s most potent offenses. Look for wide receiver Sammy Watkins to return to his freshman year form and team with DeAndre Hopkins to comprise the nation’s best receiving duo (if Hopkins doesn’t declare for the draft). Clemson must rebuild its secondary, but there aren’t too many teams on its schedule that it can’t out-score.

8. Notre Dame – Despite the brutal shellacking it suffered at the hands of Alabama, this is still a program on the rise. While Manti Te’o – the heart of the defense — departs at linebacker, the backbone of the unit is still in place as all-star candidates Stephon Tuittand Louis Nix return for at least one more year on the defensive line. Everett Golsonshould be better at quarterback and, if the Irish can find a running back from its highly-touted recruiting class to replace Theo Riddick and Cierre Wood, the offense should be pretty good in Brian Kelly’s fourth season.

9. TCU – The Horned Frogs had a drama-filled season in their first go-around in the Big 12, but things should settle down a bit this fall. If former quarterback starter Casey Pachall returns from a drug suspension, he’ll give the offense another option in addition to Trevone Boykin, who replaced Pachall and did an admirable job at quarterback in 2012. Look for the defense to rebound from an off-year and become one of the best units in the country — it’s led by uber-talent Devante Fields at defensive end.

10. Louisville – Almost everyone is back from a team that went 11-2, including a romp over Florida in the Sugar Bowl. The headliner is junior quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, who should be on the short list for the Heisman in the fall. If the defense can take a step up, this could be a dark horse title contender.

 

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Manti Te’o a non-factor in BCS blowout

By on January 8, 2013 in General CFB

Notre Dame linebacker Manti Te’o closed out his career as the most decorated player in college football history.

The senior won the Lott Trophy, as well as the Maxwell Award, the Chuck Bednarik Award, the Bronko Nagurski Trophy, the Butkus Award, the Lombardi Award, and the Walter Camp Award. He placed second in the voting for the Heisman Trophy, tying Hugh Green for the highest-ever finish by a pure defender.

But in his team’s 42-14 loss to Alabama in the 2013 BCS title game, he wasn’t even the best linebacker on the field, much less the best player.

Where was Te’o?

That’s the question that reverberated around social media as the Crimson Tide ripped through the guts of the Irish defense time after time on Monday night. While Alabama running backs Eddie Lacy (140 rushing yards) and T.J. Yeldon (108 yards) had a field day getting to the second level, the normally dependable Te’o missed several tackles (he had only two missed tackles all year coming in) and found himself out of position on numerous occasions.

The play that set the tone for Te’o's performance came on Alabama’s opening drive. On a second-and-3 from the Notre Dame 20-yard line, Lacy took a deep handoff straight up the middle. The Irish front stalemated the Tide line as it fired off the ball, but a crease opened for Lacy between the center and left guard. Te’o was indecisive and late in covering the hole, attempting a diving tackle of Lacy even as right guard Anthony Steen hindered him a little from a prone position. But Te’o couldn’t stop Lacy, who rumbled for the Tide’s first touchdown of the night.

Even Te’o's pass defense, his strong suit, was rusty. He bit on a play fake that resulted in Alabama’s second touchdown, a 3-yard scoring pass from AJ McCarron to tight end Michael Williams.

He would go on to finish with 10 tackles, but only three of them were unassisted. He didn’t make any plays behind the line of scrimmage, didn’t deflect a pass and didn’t force a fumble. The linebacker known for making plays didn’t make one the entire game. Most of Te’o's tackles were of the “jump on the pile” variety. Meanwhile, Alabama ran the ball 45 times for 265 yards, an average of 5.9 yards.

Te’o wasn’t just a victim of Alabama’s harsh, down-hill style. He was also a victim of unrealistic expectations. Those who touted him during the season — and those who continue to tout him as the best linebacker prospect in however-many years — have tended to gloss over some of the deficiencies in his game. They focus on his overall tackle number (103) and remarkable interception total (7), but they miss the flaws — namely his lack of physicality and his difficulty in taking on and getting off blocks.

This is not to say that Te’o isn’t a great player; he is. But he’s not a perfect player by any stretch of the imagination. Alabama recognized that and exploited his weaknesses to great effect.

Te’o might have been the heart of the Irish defense this season, but that heart was ripped out by the Crimson Tide during this epic blowout.

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