Last week was rough for picking winners against the spread. I had my first losing week, going 4-6 (but with 2-3 very narrow losses), but considering all the upsets in college football that went on, I think that’s an okay mark. On the year, I’m now 28-22 (.560), so things are still on the plus side of the ledger.
Here are my top 10 picks for this week, with spreads courtesy of DocSports.com. Picks are in bold.
Michigan State – 21 at Purdue
The Spartans defense will dominate a lackluster, non-athletic offense like Purdue’s. The MSU offense is actually underrated and does not try to control the ball like most great defensive teams. It likes to score as much as possible, so I expect a blowout on the order of 42 – 10.
LSU -1 at Florida
Florida is a mess. The Gators had been starting a true freshman at QB and he’s suspended, so they’ll go with former starter Jeff Driskel against LSU. The Tigers are also starting a true freshman QB, but I thnk he’s actually pretty solid. LSU is just better and will win this one easily, 24 – 9.
OVER 70 total Washington at California
California’s offense is a juggernaut and UW has real issues in the secondary. At the same time, California’s defense can’t stop anybody and UW’s offense has shown signs of life at times. Both teams should be in the 40s in this one so I like the OVER. Cal 52, Washington 42
NC State -3.5 vs. Boston College
The Wolfpack have a mobile QB in Jacoby Brissett who can also throw. They gave FSU all it could handle before losing and then they had a letdown last week vs. Clemson, but I think they’ll put it together to beat BC. NC State 31, Boston College 24
Clemson -10 vs. Louisville
Deshaun Watson is the best young quarterback in the country and Clemson offense is turning into a monster. I think the Tigers start slow but eventually overwhelm the Cardinals in Death Valley. Clemson 35, Louisville 17
Auburn -3 at Mississippi State
I see Auburn as the best team in the country with the best coach. This is going to be a back and forth game, but the Tigers will find a way to win by a touchdown or more. Auburn 38, Mississippi State 27
Arizona +3 at USC
The Wildcats just have too much offense for USC to handle, but I think the Trojans will put up a good fight. This should be a barn burner with Arizona coming out on top, 41-31.
Oregon -3 at UCLA
One of these teams is going to leave with a two-game losing streak. I see Oregon as being mentally tougher than the Bruins right now. Having arguably the best player in the country to work with in Marcus Mariota gives the Ducks the edge. Oregon 45, UCLA 35
Notre Dame -17 vs. UNC
North Carolina’s defensive struggles will continue in South Bend. I don’t see the Tar Heels doing too much on the offensive side of the ball either. Another big game for Everett Golson and the Irish romp, 35-13.
OVER 64 total TCU at Baylor
As well as these two defenses have played so far this year, I don’t think either has seen an offense as good as what they’ll see on Saturday in Waco. I’m not sure who’s going to win this, but I think we’ll see a lot of points so I’m taking the OVER. Let’s go with Baylor 38, TCU 37.