Tag Archives | Tim Tebow

The HP Heisman Watch

By on November 2, 2009 in Uncategorized

Now for my weekly Heisman Watch.  This is my list of the players with the best chance of actually winning the Heisman.  It is a projection of how the race is most likely to take shape based on current information.  From what I see, there are only four players out there who can still win the Heisman:

1. Colt McCoy, Texas–McCoy holds a slight edge after completing 16 of 21 for 171 yards with one touchdown and no interceptions against Oklahoma State.  He also rushed for 34 yards.  He’s on pace to complete 72 percent of his passes for 3,212 yards, 24 touchdown passes and 12 interceptions by the time of the Heisman vote.  While these aren’t spectacular numbers in the context of recent winners, it is probably good enough to win the trophy this season, especially given his status as the returning Heisman runner-up who is the senior quarterback for a (likely) undefeated team.  If he doesn’t win, it will be because one of the other candidates finishes the season in a markedly stronger fashion and has a clear-cut case for the trophy.  However, I do think McCoy is set up nicely to pick up strong support due to his being the top candidate West of the Mississippi.  He also benefits from the possibility that the two SEC candidates could sap each other’s strength in the voting.      

2. Mark Ingram, Alabama–Ingram sat out last week as Alabama had a bye.  He maintains his status as a strong Heisman contender, but this Saturday’s game versus LSU could make or break his chances.  He’s got 1,004 yards and eight touchdowns on the season, so he’s on pace to have 1,631 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns by the time of the Heisman vote.  A big game against LSU could put him in clear control of this race, but a poor game could end his run.

3. Tim Tebow, Florida–Tebow had maybe his best game of the season against Georgia, throwing for 164 yards and two touchdowns on 15 of 21 passing, while also rushing for 85 yards and two scores.  He’s now on pace to have the following numbers at Heisman voting time:  2,149 passing yards with 16 touchdowns and seven interceptions, plus 897 yards and 13 touchdowns on the ground.  The Gators don’t have any marquee games left on the regular season schedule, so he’ll need to accumulate more yardage away from the spotlight before the (likely) mega-matchup against Alabama in the SEC title game.  The best chance for Tebow to win the Heisman is for Ingram to be eliminated as a viable candidate before that title game and then for him to lead the Gators to the win against the Tide.  That will make Tebow the main SEC candidate and help give voters more reason to rally his way.    

4. Jimmy Clausen, Notre Dame–Clausen lurks in the background of this race, waiting for something to happen to the other candidates.  He’s the stat king of the bunch and is coming off a game against WSU where he went 22 of 27 for 268 yards with two touchdowns and no picks.  He is on pace to have 3,477 yards, 27 touchdown passes and just three interceptions by the time of the Heisman vote.  These numbers are superior to all the other top candidates in the race, but he’s still hampered by the perception that Notre Dame hasn’t beaten a good team yet.   His best chance of winning comes if he finishes the season strong–with the Irish going 10-2–and Alabama and Florida both lose (with Tebow and Ingram taking major hits to their candidacies).  In that scenario, he’d have a chance to steal the race from McCoy, whose numbers pale in comparison and whose schedule wasn’t exactly the toughest, either.

The race could come down to which school makes the best case for its candidate, which is why the campaigns need to start heating up.

If the vote were held today

1. Mark Ingram, Alabama

2. Tim Tebow, Florida

3. Colt McCoy, Texas

4. Jimmy Clausen, Notre Dame

5. Case Keenum, Houston

6. Ndamukong Suh, Nebraska

7. Jacquizz Rodgers, Oregon State

8. C.J. Spiller, Clemson

9. Eric Berry, Tennessee

10. Golden Tate, Notre Dame

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The HeismanPundit.com Heisman Poll, 10/27

By on October 27, 2009 in Heismanpundit Straw Poll

HeismanPundit.com Heisman Poll, 10/27
Total Points with first place votes in parantheses

1. Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama–56 (9)

2. Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame–26 (1)

3. Colt McCoy, QB, Texas–25

4. Tim Tebow, QB, Florida–23 (1)

5. Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska–15 (1)

6. Golden Tate, WR, Notre Dame–10 (1)

Case Keenum, QB, Houston–10

8. Jacquizz Rodgers, RB, Oregon State–8

Kellen Moore, QB, Boise State–8

10. Eric Berry, DB, Tennessee–4

Others receiving votes: Noel Devine, RB, West Virginia–3; C.J Spiller, RB, Clemson–2; Ryan Williams, RB, Va. Tech–2; Zac Robinson, QB, Oklahoma State–1; Dion Lewis, RB, Pittsburgh–1; Matt Barkley, QB, USC–1

About the Poll
 
The HeismanPundit.com Heisman Poll is made up of 13 Heisman voters from across the country. They vote for five players each week. Tabulations are made on a 5-4-3-2-1 basis, with five points awarded for a first-place vote, four points for a second-place vote and so on.  Last year’s final Heismanpundit poll was the most accurate in the country, picking five of the top six finishers in the Heisman vote, including the winner.

Members of the panel include: Mike Bianchi of the Orlando Sentinel, Teddy Greenstein and Brian Hamilton of the Chicago Tribune, Olin Buchanan and Tom Dienhart of Rivals.com, Jenni Carlson of The Oklahoman, Bruce Feldman of ESPN.com, J.B. Morris of ESPN the Magazine, Austin Murphy, B.J. Schecter and Stewart Mandel of Sports Illustrated, plus Dick Weiss of the New York Daily News. 

Chris Huston of HeismanPundit.com coordinates and also votes in the poll.
 
HP’s Thoughts
 
Mark Ingram has taken a commanding lead in the race and he should stay there for at least another week as Alabama uses a bye in preparation for LSU on Nov. 7.    It appears Tim Tebow’s quest for a second Heisman is in major jeopardy unless he can turn things around soon.  In the meantime, Colt McCoy and Jimmy Clausen have gained ground and one of them should emerge as the quarterback alternative to Ingram.  October has been a rough month for most of the Heisman field and, as a result, it looks like this race could go down to the wire.
 
Heisman Game of the Week
 
No. 3 Texas at No. 13 Oklahoma State–Preseason favorite McCoy had a strong outing against Missouri last week and might be back on track after a rather erratic first half of the season.  The Cowboys are the last ranked team on the Texas schedule, so it’s vital that McCoy play well–Heisman voters will be watching.   It’s also a golden opportunity for McCoy to whittle away at Ingram’s lead while ‘Bama is on that bye week.

Player to Watch

Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska–It’s been 18 seasons since a defensive tackle finished among the top five in the Heisman vote.  That player was Steve Emtman of Washington.  Suh has a chance to join him in that elite group if he keeps playing like he has been.  Suh is amazingly active for an interior player, leading the Cornhuskers (or tying for the lead) in 10 defensive categories, including tackles (44), tackles for loss (10), sacks (4), pass breakups (7), interceptions (1) and blocked field goals (2).

This Week in Heisman History
 
Unbeaten Ole Miss held a 3-0 lead over unbeaten LSU five minutes into the fourth quarter on Halloween night, 1959.  A Jake Gibbs punt was fielded at the LSU 11-yard line by Tiger halfback Billy Cannon, who proceeded to wiggle his way through numerous tacklers en route to a miraculous 89-yard return for a touchdown.  The score turned out to be the difference in LSU’s classic 7-3 victory and it clinched Cannon’s eventual Heisman triumph.

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Heisman Nirvana

By on October 15, 2009 in General CFB

That’s what it’s going to be like this Saturday, possibly the most important day on this season’s Heisman schedule.

Between Texas-Oklahoma, USC-Notre Dame and Florida-Arkansas, the action will include TWO current Heisman winners, THREE major candidates for the 2009 Heisman, an undetermined number of future Heisman challengers (among the various underclassmen on the rosters), and FIVE traditional Heisman powers with a combined 24 bronze statues to their credit (nearly 1/3 of all the winners).

I’m a West Coast guy, so after a hearty breakfast, I’ll get the Sooners and Longhorns at 9 a.m.  I’m keeping a close eye on this one, because if Colt McCoy plays lights out, he could take control of the race. 

What does he need to do for that to happen? 

Continue Reading →

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The HeismanPundit.com Heisman Poll, 10/13

By on October 13, 2009 in Heismanpundit Straw Poll

HeismanPundit.com Heisman Poll, 10/13
(total points, with first-place votes in parantheses)

1. Tim Tebow, QB, Florida–50 (6)

2. Colt McCoy, QB, Texas–35 (2)

3. Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame–34 (2)

4. Tony Pike, QB, Cincinnati–25 (1)

5. Case Keenum, QB, Houston–20

6. Ndamkong Suh, DT, Nebraska–11 (2)

7. Jacquizz Rodgers, RB, Oregon State–5
     Ryan Williams, RB, Virginia Tech–5

9. Eric Berry, DB, Tennessee–3

10. Todd Reesing, QB, Kansas–2
     Golden Tate, WR, Notre Dame–2

12. Jacory Harris, QB, Miami–1
      Rolando McClain, LB, Alabama–1
      Tyrod Taylor, QB, Virginia Tech–1

About the Poll 

The HeismanPundit.com Heisman Poll is made up of 13 Heisman voters from across the country. They vote for five players each week. Tabulations are made on a 5-4-3-2-1 basis, with five points awarded for a first-place vote, four points for a second-place vote and so on.  Last year’s final Heismanpundit poll was the most accurate in the country, picking five of the top six finishers in the Heisman vote.

Members of the panel include: Mike Bianchi of the Orlando Sentinel, Teddy Greenstein and Brian Hamilton of the Chicago Tribune, Olin Buchanan and Tom Dienhart of Rivals.com, Jenni Carlson of The Oklahoman, Bruce Feldman of ESPN.com, J.B. Morris of ESPN the Magazine, Austin Murphy, B.J. Schecter and Stewart Mandel of Sports Illustrated, plus Dick Weiss of the New York Daily News.

Chris Huston of HeismanPundit.com coordinates and also votes in the poll.

From a Voter

“If the award is for the most outstanding player in college football, you have to be awed by how dominating Ndamkong Suh has been this season. Other guys who become the default frontrunners due to their reps linger near the top and will be tough to beat in the end, but I’m going with Suh at this point. He’s made the Huskers a big deal again and he’s doing some things nobody at his position does. What’s really amazing is that you talk to coaches who go up against him and they focus on him so much in their game plans and he still makes plays.”– a Heisman voter.

Heisman Game of the Week
 
No. 3 Texas vs. No. 20 Oklahoma.  This could be where McCoy wins or loses the Heisman.  The voters will be watching closely to see if the Texas quarterback can recapture his magic from last season, when he finished second in the balloting.  While he’s been solid so far this year, he has thrown more interceptions and fewer touchdowns than many expected.  But if he plays well and leads Texas to a win, he’ll be hard to beat for the Heisman.  If he stumbles badly in a loss, however, he might have a hard time getting back to New York.

Player to Watch

Sam Bradford, Oklahoma.  Last year’s Heisman winner won’t repeat thanks to a shoulder injury that kept him out of the last three games, but he could still play the role of Heisman spoiler.  He showed few signs of rust in throwing for 389 yards in his return to action last week against Baylor, which augurs well for his matchup on Saturday against Texas and McCoy. If Bradford flashes the form that led to his record-setting season in 2008 and the Sooners win, he might even start appearing on some Heisman lists again.

This Week in Heisman History

Oklahoma running back Steve Owens rushed for 112 yards on 28 carries and scored four touchdowns, eclipsing the 100-yard barrier for the 14th-straight time, as the Sooners held off Colorado, 42-30, in 1969.  Late in the game, Owens broke the NCAA record for career rushing attempts (683) held previously by Wisconsin’s Alan Ameche.  He went on to beat out Purdue’s Mike Phipps to become Oklahoma’s second Heisman winner.

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The HP Heisman Watch

By on October 12, 2009 in Uncategorized

This has not been the Heisman race everyone thought it would be.  Thus far, the peformances by the top preseason contenders have been a bit underwhelming.  I believe that October will reveal the eventual winner, but there is also a chance the race will be re-set (a concept I discuss here) and that some new candidates will emerge.  Until that happens, though, there still appears–at this point–to be only four candidates with a chance to actually win the Heisman.

1. Colt McCoy, Texas–He threw for 265 yards on 32 of 39 passing, with a touchdown and one interception in the Longhorns’ win over Colorado.  These are solid numbers, though not spectacular.  On the year, he has 1,410 passing yards (73.4%), with 10 touchdowns and six picks.   His rushing numbers are down considerably from last year, as he has just 58 yards and one touchdown on the season.  He is on pace to have around 3,500 passing yards with 26 touchdowns and 14 interceptions by the time of the Heisman vote.

McCoy’s Heisman run, if it comes, begins this week versus Oklahoma.  Given the paucity of marquee matchups on the Texas schedule–a byproduct of the Big 12′s drop in quality relative to 2008–losing to the Sooners would probably be fatal to McCoy’s Heisman hopes, unless the other candidates in the running also slip up.  He should have the full attention of Heisman voters, as Texas-OU kicks off at noon ET, while Tim Tebow and Jimmy Clausen will be playing at the same time in the 3:30 ET time slot.  Simply put, this is McCoy’s chance to put his stamp on the race.

If McCoy gets past OU, then keeps putting up the kind of passing yardage he has so far, while adding a few four or five-touchdown games and keeping his interception rate low (and his team undefeated), he’ll win the Heisman.

2. Tim Tebow, Florida–Tebow’s Heisman hopes improved considerably thanks to his gutty performance in Florida’s win over LSU.  While he didn’t dominate statistically, he showed why he is so valuable to the nation’s No. 1 team.  Does Florida lose without Tebow?  Given the way the Gators played defensively, I’m not so sure, but having No. 15 in charge surely gave Florida a lot of confidence in such a hostile environment.

Tebow threw for 134 yards on 11 of 16 passing with one touchdown and one interception.  He also added 38 yards on 17 carries.   On the season, he has 777 passing yards, with seven touchdowns and two interceptions, plus 309 rushing yards and five touchdowns.  He is on pace to have about 2,000 passing yards, with 17 touchdown passes and five interceptions by the time of the Heisman vote (plus another 800 yards and 13 TDs on the ground). 

The main question with Tebow:  Can he win that elusive second Heisman while producing a season that is not clearly superior to the rest of the field?  Excluding option QB Eric Crouch, the last signal caller to win the Heisman without throwing at least 30 touchdown passes was Charlie Ward in 1993.  The last quarterback to win the Heisman while throwing  fewer than 20 touchdown passes (again excluding Crouch) was Geno Torretta in 1992.  Both Ward and Torretta won their Heismans absent serious challenges from players on traditional Heisman powers.  Tebow must contend with rivals from Texas (McCoy) and Notre Dame (Clausen), both of whom have a shot at hitting that 30-TD level (with both probably guaranteed of surpassing 20).  Both schools have the institutional power to siphon away Heisman votes from Tebow, which is why despite his superior name recognition and unrivaled reputation in the world of college football, his success in the race may depend less on what he does and more on what those other candidates don’t do.  If neither McCoy or Clausen come through, Tebow’s lack of numbers won’t matter as much.

3. Jimmy Clausen, Notre Dame–Clausen and Notre Dame had a bye this past weekend, so he heads into the game against USC still leading the nation in passing efficiency.  Clausen has 1,544 passing yards with 12 touchdowns and two interceptions on the season.  He is on pace to have 3,706 passing yards with 29 touchdowns and five interceptions by the time of the Heisman vote.  In any other year, this would be a good season, but probably not enough to win the Heisman. 

However, the 2009 season has seen a marked decline in output by quarterbacks.  While seven passers topped the 35-touchdown pass mark in 2008 (with Sam Bradford having 48 when he won the Heisman), only one (Case Keenum) is on pace to surpass that in 2009.  So if Clausen keeps up his pace, his numbers could look very good relative to the competition.

Clausen is set up perfectly for a Heisman run.  Beat USC and then finish strong against five unranked teams and then Stanford (which could be ranked) and he’s got a great shot to win.  I think going 11-1 with a win over the Trojans will give Clausen a valid case to present to the voters.  But I don’t think a loss to USC will be forgiven, as the one knock on the Irish is that they haven’t beaten a good team in recent memory.  Clausen has that cross to bear and the burden won’t get any easier unless he leads Notre Dame to a win this Saturday. 

4. Jacory Harris, Miami–Harris threw for 217 yards with two touchdowns and two picks against Florida A&M this past Saturday.  On the season, he has 1,225 passing yards, with 10 touchdowns and seven interceptions.  He is on pace to have 2,940 yards, 24 touchdown passes and 17 interceptions by the time of the Heisman vote.

Harris’ game against Florida A&M was a missed opportunity to pile up the kind of numbers he needs to outshine his foes in the Heisman race.  Given his sophomore status, his case for the Heisman must be crystal clear.  That means Miami has to win out and Harris must have a season that is statistically head and shoulders above the other candidates.  At this point, I believe he needs to average 280 yards and 3 touchdowns per game (while keeping his interceptions at 10 or below) in his last seven games (all of which Miami must win) to have a shot at doing that.  Upping his pace to that level would give him about 3,300 yards and 33 touchdowns by the time of the Heisman vote.  Those numbers would contrast nicely with the other candidates and he’ll be able to say he brought Miami back.  Is it likely?  Probably not.  But I’d like to see how he does against UCF on Saturday before completely eliminating him from consideration. 

If the vote were held today:

1. Tim Tebow

2. Colt McCoy

3. Jimmy Clausen

4. Case Keenum

5. Tony Pike

6. Eric Berry

7. Jacquizz Rodgers

8. Jacory Harris

9. Ndamkong Suh

10. Mark Ingram

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The Heismanpundit Heisman Poll, 10/6

By on October 5, 2009 in Heismanpundit Straw Poll

This Week’s Poll Results, 10/6
(points, plus first-place votes in parantheses)
 
1. Tim Tebow, QB, Florida–52 (7)
 
2. Colt McCoy, QB, Texas–48 (3)
 
3. Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame–31 (2)

4. Tony Pike, QB, Cincinnati–24

5. Case Keenum, QB, Houston–11

6. Jacory Harris, QB, Miami–8

7. A.J. Green, WR, Georgia–7 (1)

8. Tate Forcier, QB, Michigan–4

9. Toby Gerhart, RB, Stanford–3

10. Golden Tate, WR, Notre Dame–3

11. Eric Decker, WR, Minnesota–2
Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State–2

About the Poll
 
The HeismanPundit.com Heisman Poll is made up of 13 Heisman voters from across the country. They vote for five players each week. Tabulations are made on a 5-4-3-2-1 basis, with five points awarded for a first-place vote, four points for a second-place vote and so on.  Last year’s final Heismanpundit poll was the most accurate in the country, picking five of the top six finishers in the Heisman vote, including the winner.

Members of the panel include: Mike Bianchi of the Orlando Sentinel, Teddy Greenstein and Brian Hamilton of the Chicago Tribune, Olin Buchanan and Tom Dienhart of Rivals.com, Jenni Carlson of The Oklahoman, Bruce Feldman of ESPN.com, J.B. Morris of ESPN the Magazine, Austin Murphy, B.J. Schecter and Stewart Mandel of Sports Illustrated, plus Dick Weiss of the New York Daily News.

Chris Huston, owner of Heismanpundit.com, coordinates and also votes in the weekly poll.
 
From a Voter

“They may not have the most eye-popping numbers to date — especially since they’ve played one less game than a lot of the other contenders — but Tim Tebow and Colt McCoy are running the best teams and still performing at a high level.  Tony Pike is in that same category.  The numbers of Jimmy Clausen and Toby Gerhardt are just too significant to ignore, even if the overall team success hasn’t quite validated either Notre Dame or Stanford as among the nation’s elite.  But then, both players will have chances for signature games soon enough, especially when Clausen stares down the USC defense in a couple weeks.” — a Heisman voter.
 
Heisman Game of the Week
 
No. 1 Florida at No. 4 LSU.  High stakes here, as always.  The Tigers might be Florida’s biggest obstacle to an undefeated regular season.  So will Tebow play or won’t he?  That is the question.  If he plays and leads Florida to a victory, it will add another chapter to his amazing legacy and his end reward could be that elusive second Heisman.  If he doesn’t play, or performs poorly in a loss, then his Heisman hopes will fade considerably.    
 
Player to Watch

Toby Gerhart, RB, Stanford.  Who would’ve thought the top running back on the West Coast might end up coming from the other side of the San Francisco Bay?  The 6-1, 240-pound Gerhart is fourth in the nation in rushing and embodies Stanford’s newly-discovered, blue-collar style under head coach Jim Harbaugh.  With no other running backs in the race, Gerhart could make a late-season run at the trophy. 
 
This Week in Heisman History

Quarterback Jim Plunkett completed 19 of 31 passes for 276 yards and one touchdown (a 50-yarder to tight end Bob Moore) as No. 12 Stanford upset No. 4 USC in 1970, ending the Trojans’ 25-game regular-season unbeaten streak.  Plunkett later beat out Notre Dame’s Joe Theismann for the Heisman and then led the Indians to a stunning 27-17 win over undefeated Ohio State in the 1971 Rose Bowl.

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The HP Heisman Watch

By on October 5, 2009 in Uncategorized

We are five weeks in and right now I believe there are only four players left who can actually win the Heisman in the current environment.  I say ‘current’ because there is one circumstance in which the race could be thrown wide open to all comers again.  Namely, if every one of the remaining four candidates mess up.

What kind of scenario would that entail? 

1. Colt McCoy plays horribly in a loss to Oklahoma, or when Texas gets upset elsewhere along the way.

2. Tim Tebow’s weakened state leads either to a loss vs. LSU or he doesn’t play for a couple games, severely curtailing his stats.

3. Notre Dame and Jimmy Clausen get trounced by USC.

4. Miami gets upset and Jacory Harris underperforms or gets hurt.

In this scenario, the race would be ‘reset’ and the usual standards for picking the Heisman winner would be ratcheted down.  Voters would disregard the usual statistical benchmarks and team records in order to determine the winner.  Outside candidates who wouldn’t normally break into the top echelon would then be reconsidered.  Should this happen, look for names like Greg McElroy, Joe McKnight, Tony Pike, Toby Gerhart, Tate Forcier and Noel Devine to emerge as possible contenders, along with the current ones.

That said, here are the four players who currently have the best chance at actually winning the Heisman.  All four are from traditional Heisman powers.  Remember, this is a projection based on how the season is likely to unfold based on what we know now, NOT the way the vote would end up.

1. Colt McCoy, Texas–McCoy is the clear front runner and all he really has to do is beat Oklahoma to put himself in position to cruise to the Heisman.  He has a chance to make this race devoid of any drama.  On the year, he’s got 1,145 passing yards, with 9 TDs and 5 picks and is completing 71 percent of his passes.  Assuming Texas makes the Big 12 title game, he is on pace to have 3,721 passing yards with 29 touchdowns and 16 interceptions.  Now, he obviously needs to tone down the picks, but I don’t think he’ll have a problem doing that.  If he maintains a 3-to-1 ratio, he’ll be fine.  But if the picks keep coming, they could pose a problem for some voters. 

2. Jimmy Clausen, Notre Dame–When was the last time a Notre Dame quarterback led the nation in passing efficiency?  Well, that’s what Clausen is doing now.  And he’s doing so in dramatic fashion, leading the Irish to comeback win after comeback win.  I think there is an understanding that Notre Dame isn’t especially good right now, but that it is Clausen who is willing them to victory anyway.  On the year, he has 1,544 passing yards, with 12 TDs and 2 interceptions.  He is completing 68 percent of his passes.  He is on pace to have 3,705 passing yards with 29 TDs and 5 picks by the time of the Heisman vote.  His biggest obstacle is USC in two weeks.  But if he beats the Trojans–and it will most likely be because of him if it happens–he may be unstoppable in this race. 

3. Jacory Harris, Miami–Harris has emerged as a legitimate Heisman contender after a very tough first four games.  If the ’Canes were 4-0, he might be in great shape in the race.  But they are 3-1 and some things will need to happen for him to have a shot.  Namely, Miami needs to win out.  I actually think this is a good possibility.  If the ‘Canes are 11-1 at the time of the Heisman vote and in contention for a BCS berth of some sort, Harris will be seen as the catalyst for the program’s revival, much like Carson Palmer was seen as the reason for USC’s revival in 2002.  Right now, he has 1,008 passing yards with 8 TDs and 5 interceptions.  He is completing 62 percent of his passes.  He is on pace to have  3,024 passing yards with 24 TDs and 15 picks by the time of the Heisman vote.  However, because Miami’s schedule is considerably easier the rest of the way than it has been so far, I expect his yardage and touchdowns to rise considerably above that pace and for his interceptions to drop.

4. Tim Tebow, Florida–Tebow is the big wild card in the race right now.  We don’t know what his status is and that’s why he is in the four spot.  I have to assume that even if he plays against LSU, he won’t be 100 percent.  If he doesn’t play, it could really hurt his chances at another Heisman since his numbers will have a hard time keeping pace with the others in the race.   On the other hand, a heroic return in a win against LSU could vault him back up there with McCoy.  For the year, he has 643 passing yards with 6 TDs and 1 interception, along with 271 rushing yards and 5 TDs.  Assuming Florida makes the SEC title game, he is on pace for 2,089 passing yards, with 20 TD passes and 3 interceptions, to go with 880 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns.

How The Regions Are Shaping Up

McCoy is in good shape partly because he is now the only legitimate Heisman candidate west of the Mississippi.  He is likely to capture the vast majority of the votes in the Southwest and West regions and will remain strong in the other regions just as he was last year.  Clausen is obviously the Midwest’s main candidate, while Tebow and Harris are the Southern guys.  The race could be decided by the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions.  

If the vote were held today

1. Tim Tebow

2. Colt McCoy

3. Jimmy Clausen

4. Tony Pike

5. Case Keenum

6. Jacory Harris

7. Eric Berry

8. Jahvid Best

9. Joe McKnight

10. Greg McElroy

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